The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

Albright is one of the best guessers of what will go down typically.  Though its early.

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, KDawg said:

Are you guys tired of regurgitating the same arguments every 2-3 days yet?

 

Going to be a long few months  

 

I have been for weeks tired of it and mostly stopped but the last few days I got the bug again.  But am getting bored again as to the Maye-Daniels stuff. . 

 

I don't think I'll ever get bored with arguing against trading down and passing on QB, it brings out my dark side.... 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Pull some deep outs to the opposite hash for us....We will wait.....For forever. I have watched hours at this point. And I think I saw 2 or 3 on his entire tape. I can sit here and post dead ducks from him all night. His are is average at best. 

 

It's analogous for me to the Haskins tape that Reddick put up before that draft.  At the time, it was indicated that Haskins threw crosser (mesh routes) after crosser and didn't throw much deep or intermediate out routes and when he did it, he wasn't hot at it.  So Reddick collected the small number of times he did it and of course only the good throws and put it on one loop and said see!

 

I've said this before @volsmet, I miss him on the draft thread.  He bugged me one year to rewatch Haskins and focus on what he can do and what he doesn't do well and what he doesn't do much.  And it changed how I watched QBs.

 

As for Daniels, I like him as a QB.  This isn't Haskins for me.  But, its not hard to see when you watch him he's almost primarily first level and third level thrower.  He rarely throws to the 2nd.  And he also rarely (not never) throws tight window throws or throws with anticipation aside from the deep ball.  I think his biggest adjustment to the NFL though will be to throw off platform more.  When you are flushed out of the pocket you can't just run that much.

 

But i can put together cuts of any player.  Not just QBs.  Where I can refute someone's concern about that they don't do this or that by finding some isolated cases when they did it and combining them.  It's part of the reason why i don't like watching highights of players. 

 

As for Daniels durability.  It's not a debatable point IMO.  Running QBs endanger themselves more.  They tend to get hurt.  It's not just RG3.  Russell Wilson is a rare exception.  With Wilson, he has tree trunks as legs and is very good at getting down before contact.    The thing is why don't RBs last long in the league?  Part of it is the wear and tear on their bodies.  When QB's assume some of that RB role, it too puts wear on their bodies.  I recall listening to a Carolina reporter talk about Cam and how the years of taking a beating ultimately wore him down, beyond the shoulder surgery.

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[HTTRDynasty]

 

Washington Commanders

 

At one point this past season, Sam Howelllooked primed to be a franchise QB, boasting the stats to show it. But with a new head coach(Dan Quinn) and general manager (Adam Peters), along with the No. 2 overall selection, it would be a surprise if that’s still the case.

 

Peters faces one of his largest decisions for the next several years in figuring out how to handle the No. 2 pick. Plenty of teams view Peters’ Commanders as a possible trade-up team to No. 1, with the belief that offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury could be paired once again with Williams. And the Commanders likely will place a call to the Bears to gauge the market and see if a trade is possible.

 

Otherwise, their options at No. 2 appear to include North Carolina’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels, or they could perhaps take a position player and acquire a veteran like Fields.

 

With plenty of salary-cap space and draft capital, it’s all on the table for Washington and Quinn.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I never predicted we’d have an easier or harder schedule.

 

I just said predicting how hard the schedule is going to be is impossible.

 

The Falcons, Seahawks, Rams, Jets and Patriots all underperformed their expected records.  The Jets by a lot because Rodgers got hurt.  
 

Some of the really good teams on the schedule were really good.  

Our predicted strength of schedule before the season was one of the hardest in the NFL.  
 

We ended up with a .512 strength of scheduled. Middle of the pack.  

 

 

We got into how everything might shift.  You made the point back then that bad teams can be good.  Good teams can be bad.  We think the Bills right now are good.  And the Cardinals suck.  But it just could easily be the reverse.  

 

My point was then I bet we can guess that good teams last year like SF, the Bills will still be good this year.  And bad teams like the Cardinals will likely be bad.  No guarantees but I think we can make some good edcuated guess and MOST of them will turn out true.  Not ALL.

 

If you go through our schedule what made it weaker.  Not as easy schedule but weaker was the bad teams ended up not just bad but VERY bad.  It wasn't that out schedule went Humpty Dumpy and teams like the Cardinals and the Pats turned great and the 49ers and Bills ended up sucking.

 

So you taking that same logic and saying we have no idea at all if the next QB draft is good or bad -- its sort of the same extreme on the same point.  Yes, we don't know for sure.  I agree with you there.  But the idea that this teams are flying totally blind on it is IMO silly.  People talk all the time about next years class.  And often (not always) those thoughts are close enough to being on the mark.  Every now and then a Kyler Murray and Burrow emerge out of nowhere.  But for starters it doesn't happen every draft season but more in point its VERY rare that two Joe Burrows emerge out of nowhere in a draft season.  It's all about odds.  

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Sam Darnold?

 

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/assessing-intriguing-qb-market-as-2024-nfl-offseason-nears-who-could-be-headed-where

 

Minnesota Vikings

 

The Vikings want to re-sign Kirk Cousins, who is set to hit free agency in March for the first since 2018. But Cousins is expected to have a strong market, even coming off a torn Achilles as he enters his age-36 season, and Minnesota is evaluating all options in the event Cousins lands elsewhere.

 

If the price tag gets too high, the Vikings likely would pursue a more economical veteran and hope that player becomes this year’s Baker Mayfield -- current 49ers backup Sam Darnold, among others, would make sense -- while also potentially drafting a QB. (Minnesota owns the No. 11 overall pick.)

 

Complicating matters is that superstar receiver Justin Jefferson is also up for a new contract after talks didn’t yield a deal before last season. Jefferson is a Cousins fan and will want to know the quarterback plan before signing on for the long haul.

 

The Vikings also have another top pending free agent, edge rusher Danielle Hunter, and re-signing all three players is probably unrealistic.

[mistertim]

How anyone is still talking about Sam Darnold as a starting NFL QB is absolutely beyond my comprehension.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, mistertim said:

How anyone is still talking about Sam Darnold as a starting NFL QB is absolutely beyond my comprehension.

 

The national media seems to have some very odd fascination with them.  They thought Carolina killed it and ripped the Jets off when they traded for him.  Then it was watch how Kyle turns Darnold around and he ends up the SF starter.  Now he's poised apparently to save Minnesota.  

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The national media seems to have some very odd fascination with them.  They thought Carolina killed it and ripped the Jets off when they traded for him.  Then it was watch how Kyle turns Darnold around and he ends up the SF starter.  Now he's poised apparently to save Minnesota.  

 

Maybe in lieu of accuracy and sound decision making on the football field, Darnold has instead become an elite expert at the Imperius Curse. That would explain how he has so many sports people still supporting him despite all of his failures.

[Est.1974]

This is the issue at #2…..
 

As one high-ranking personnel exec said, ‘There's Caleb and then a pretty big gap.’” -@JFowlerESPN #Bears
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

This is the issue at #2…..
 

As one high-ranking personnel exec said, ‘There's Caleb and then a pretty big gap.’” -@JFowlerESPN #Bears
 

 

 

Caleb has insane talent.    Plenty of personnel execs, and we cited them here are high on Maye and some on Daniels, too.   

 

Is Caleb better?  Probably.  I think Caleb is the best myself but that tough doesn't sour me on the QBs just below him.

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/caleb-williams-or-drake-maye-heres-how-talent-evaluators-frame-the-2024-nfl-drafts-big-question-163711492.html

 

Caleb Williams or Drake Maye? Here's how talent evaluators frame the 2024 NFL Draft's big question

Tucked into a booth in the Indianapolis Capital Grille nearly nine months ago, an AFC personnel man predicted a future dilemma in the NFL Draft. Sawing through a steak during a break in meetings at the league’s annual scouting combine, he paused between bites and mused about the forthcoming 2023 quarterback class.

He compared the physical size and football résumés of Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. He assessed which roster might be best equipped to cultivate the ceiling of Florida’s Anthony Richardson, versus which franchise had the right coaching staff to connect with the personality of Kentucky’s Will Levis. And when he was finally done with his meal, he made sure to deliver one last overarching assessment before getting up from the table.

“Next year is the one to be picking a quarterback at the top,” he said. “If Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were in this draft, they would’ve gotten picked before all of these guys.”

Asked which player he preferred between the USC and North Carolina quarterbacks, he wasted no time delivering an answer that was an outlier at the time.

“Maye,” he said. “I’m in the minority, but I’m a Maye guy. The kid’s a stud. He probably saved that entire coaching staff from getting fired this season.”

 

....That reality might have been best illustrated in late November of 2022, when Sean Payton, one of the league’s cornerstone quarterback whisperers, went on Colin Cowherd’s “The Herd” and speculated that Williams could be the superstar draft pick that finally pushes the league into a lottery system. At the time, Payton was taking a year off coaching and working as a Fox Sports analyst, delivering double-barreled football opinions about virtually anything and everything. His rationale on this particular day? That Williams was so special, teams could end up tanking on a shameless and undeniable level during the 2023 season just for the opportunity to draft him No. 1 overall. And with the NFL now embracing ancillary revenue streams tied to gambling, that tanking could ultimately fracture the league’s draft process.

“This player, I think, is the type of player that we would look back on in five years and say, ‘He’s why the lottery exists now,’” Payton said.

 

As much as that was a statement about some of the NFL’s intersecting and conflicting values, it was a declaration about what league evaluators thought of Williams. After all, this was the same Sean Payton who oversaw the most prolific portion of Drew Brees’ Hall of Fame career and who had success with some scrap heap quarterbacks, too. That makes it meaningful when he points at Williams and says this guy is special enough that teams are willing to break their seasons and the draft to get him.

In the 12 months since Payton made those remarks, very little of that aura around Caleb Williams has changed. He’s still seen by personnel officials and coaches as presenting a filthy-level talent. He still has parts of his game compared very favorably to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who became the league’s gold standard measure for greatness following Tom Brady's retirement. And he’s still viewed through the prism of whether a team is tanking hard enough to have a shot at him. If you don’t believe that then comb through the social media agonizing of New England Patriots fans on Thursday night, when a 21-18 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers was largely absorbed as a massive defeat in draft positioning.

 

...Despite all of that, the steady drumbeat for Williams — who won't play in this month's Holiday Bowl, USC head coach Lincoln Riley announced this week — as the draft’s unquestioned No. 1 pick is now fighting a contending cowbell in Drake Maye. With it, that once-small group that the AFC evaluator found himself in back in March is finding some creeping expansion heading into the next five months of draft assessments. While the shift might not be tectonic right now, it’s enough that of the 11 NFL talent evaluators who spoke to Yahoo Sports — each from a different team — four said they would prefer Maye over Williams. And of the seven who preferred Williams, six agreed that his standing as the first overall pick will depend on a confluence of factors that include coaching staff, scheme and preference in quarterback prototype.

 

All of which is to say one thing about the No. 1 pick: Caleb Williams versus Drake Maye still feels like an unsettled tug-of-war. And it will likely dominate the league’s draft marquee all the way into late April.

“We’re not even to the combine, so nothing about any evaluation should be assumed to be in the bag — about any player,” one NFC scout said. “I think generally, Caleb would be going into this part of the process, assuming he’s going to come out, he would be going into the combine at the top of a lot of quarterback boards, if not most. I definitely wouldn’t think it’s a 50-50 deal between him and Drake Maye across the league, or even as close as Bryce [Young] and C.J. [Stroud] last year. But I also don’t think it’s 90-10, either.”

“Putting percentages on them is just guessing,” the scout continued. “But I can say that they’re different enough as players that some staffs will definitely prefer one over the other.”

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

9 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

This is the issue at #2…..
 

As one high-ranking personnel exec said, ‘There's Caleb and then a pretty big gap.’” -@JFowlerESPN #Bears
 

 

Everyone has different opinions and ways of evaluating and ranking players. The 3 all have differing strengths and weaknesses. 

They just need to evaluate the three and go with it. If they fall in love with one, then they may move up to insure they get their man

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

This is the issue at #2…..
 

As one high-ranking personnel exec said, ‘There's Caleb and then a pretty big gap.’” -@JFowlerESPN #Bears
 

 

So what? Some rando exec stated an opinion. And sure, Caleb is probably more purely talented than Maye and Daniels, but again...so what? Does that mean that nobody else is worth taking high just because they're behind someone like him? Caleb is insanely talented but he has plenty of questions marks as well.

 

Should NFL teams adhere to the philosophy of "If we can't get the #1 prospect, there's no point in taking another guy with a high pick? If that were the case, there would have been a lot of NFL teams who missed out on their star franchise QBs.

[Koolblue13]

37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The national media seems to have some very odd fascination with them.  They thought Carolina killed it and ripped the Jets off when they traded for him.  Then it was watch how Kyle turns Darnold around and he ends up the SF starter.  Now he's poised apparently to save Minnesota.  

Sam Darnold may be a Superbowl ring wearing QB after tonight.

[rumplestilskin]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sam Darnold may be a Superbowl ring wearing QB after tonight.

But he will fumble it or throw it away. 😆 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I follow a bunch of NY sports reporters on twitter so by extension I see a lot of comments from Giants fans.  They've been oddly territorial about Maye been there guy from mid season last year.  I gather its because of all the noise that the Giants brass liked him a lot. 

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

So what? Some rando exec stated an opinion. And sure, Caleb is probably more purely talented than Maye and Daniels, but again...so what? Does that mean that nobody else is worth taking high just because they're behind someone like him? Caleb is insanely talented but he has plenty of questions marks as well.

 

Should NFL teams adhere to the philosophy of "If we can't get the #1 prospect, there's no point in taking another guy with a high pick? If that were the case, there would have been a lot of NFL teams who missed out on their star franchise QBs.

I think we should adhere to a philosophy of following a strategy that builds a long term foundation for success, whether that involves the mandatory selection of a QB  at #2 is still up for debate IMO.
 

Everyone is so absorbed with taking a QB. I know we need a QB. Harris wants an elite franchise for the long term. Just settling for a second choice QB might not be the best use of resource in his first draft. 

 

People are significantly undervaluing that #2 pick and what else it could bring.

 

But yes, we clearly do need a QB to be successful moving forward.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

 

 

I watched that this morning.  If you take it on its surface -- Bears want Caleb, will trade Fields.  Commanders Garafolo said Washington expected to poke around that #1 pick but are comfortable with Drake Maye potentially -- am guessing that's a guess. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think we should adhere to a philosophy of following a strategy that builds a long term foundation for success, whether that involves the mandatory selection of a QB  at #2 is still up for debate IMO.
 

Everyone is so absorbed with taking a QB. I know we need a QB. Harris wants an elite franchise for the long term. Just settling for a second choice QB might not be the best use of resource in his first draft. 

 

People are significantly undervaluing that #2 pick and what else it could bring.

 

But yes, we clearly do need a QB to be successful moving forward.

 

I know you don't like Maye.  So lets take that off the table and just discuss theortically.

 

i don't see why it matters that Caleb is the best QB.  It's not always one QB or bust in a draft.  You can have Herbert and Burrow.  You can have Allen and Lamar.  you can have Mahomes and Desean.   Eli and Big Ben and Rivera. 

 

This is considered that type of draft -- a good QB draft. 

 

I know you know we've had good rosters before without the QB -- and that translates to mediocrity more or less.  It wouldn't feel deflating to you, to go back down that same road and again hope to get lucky somewhere on that journey to escape medicority?  And if its all about not liking Maye, then take Daniels or McCarthy but don't we want a shot out of this hell football existence of the last 30 years?

Edited February 11 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

I find this ‘historic haul’ a bit over played. I mean going from #2 to #1 has never been done before I guess.

 

Thing is, Bears either 100% want Caleb or they don’t. If we were picking #1 he would not have a trade price. The not for sale sign would be out.

 

Bears are clearly open to offers….

[ThatNFLChick]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Albright is one of the best guessers of what will go down typically.  Though its early.

 

He got Richardson right last year and the Cardinals trading down but not for either player he guessed and he missed on the rest

 

And here was 2022

 

 

Edited February 11 by ThatNFLChick

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I think we should adhere to a philosophy of following a strategy that builds a long term foundation for success, whether that involves the mandatory selection of a QB  at #2 is still up for debate IMO.
 

Everyone is so absorbed with taking a QB. I know we need a QB. Harris wants an elite franchise for the long term. Just settling for a second choice QB might not be the best use of resource in his first draft. 

 

People are significantly undervaluing that #2 pick and what else it could bring.

 

But yes, we clearly do need a QB to be successful moving forward.

 

Nobody is talking about "mandatory selection of a QB". They're talking about selecting a QB at 2 because 1) We need one, and 2) because this is widely touted as a high quality QB class. We're unlikely to be picking this high again any time soon, especially in a strong QB class. It would be idiotic to pass up on a top tier QB talent in this situation.

 

And the "second choice" QB is borderline meaningless, given how many times the second or third best QB in a draft class has gone on to be better than the perceived best prospect.

 

And if we have no QB, then what we could get for the 2nd pick is also borderline meaningless because you're not going to have long term success in the NFL without a franchise QB. Cool, we'll probably get another couple of starters and maybe a couple more special teams guys with mid round picks we get in a trade down. So what? We're still likely not going to be a contender until we get our QB.

 

No more kicking the QB can down the road based on some magical belief that if we just build out the rest of a really strong roster, we'll go anywhere meaningful.

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know you don't like Maye.  So lets take that off the table and just discuss theortically.

 

i don't see why it matters that Caleb is the best QB.  It's not always one QB or bust in a draft.  You can have Herbert and Burrow.  You can have Allen and Lamar.  you can have Mahomes and Desean.   Eli and Big Ben and Rivera. 

 

This is considered that type of draft -- a good QB draft. 

 

I know you know we've had good rosters before without the QB -- and that translates to mediocrity more or less.  It wouldn't feel deflating to you, to go back down that same road and again hope to get lucky somewhere on that journey to escape medicority?  And if its all about not liking Maye, then take Daniels or McCarthy but don't we want a shot out of this hell football existence of the last 30 years?

It’s not that I don’t like Maye, what I’m unsure on is whether he is really worth the #2 pick. I don’t see special but that doesn’t mean he won’t be an excellent pro QB.

 

What I want is for the FO to target the best at all times. That is Caleb. If we can’t get him away from the Bears then I want absolute value from that #2 pick. I am yet to be convinced taking Maye is absolute value.

 

This isn’t about short cuts. Harris has used that narrative. If Maye is that good maybe we get offered 3 first rounders ? We should be in for the long haul here.
 

Perhaps the notion of just sitting at #2 and taking the perceived second best QB doesn’t excite me just yet. If we do, fine, I’ll support that move fully. 
 

Absolute value. That’s what I’m unsure on at the minute. But we need a QB, no doubt.