The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Honestly though, going into the season we'd probably take 22nd because we'd work under the assumption that the supporting cast would have been a lot better. With last year's defense and WR play, a QB 22nd in QBR probably has us at 7+ wins right now.

Last year’s 22nd QB in QBR was Stafford and he finished with 52.3. QB play was stronger last season. 
 

Sam right now is at 48.0 and oddly enough, Heinicke finished last year at 46.5. I thought the gap would have been wider.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Last year’s 22nd QB in QBR was Stafford and he finished with 52.3. QB play was stronger last season. 
 

Sam right now is at 48.0 and oddly enough, Heinicke finished last year at 46.5. I thought the gap would have been wider.

Yeah Howell has had huge ups and downs. The Eagles games and the Seahawks games were great. The Falcons and Patriots games he was mostly solid.

 

But then you had some absolute stinkers like the Giants games, the Bills game, etc.

 

The Cowboys and Dolphins games are hard to judge because we basically had no chance from the start.

[FootballZombie]

38 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Sam right now is at 48.0 and oddly enough, Heinicke finished last year at 46.5. I thought the gap would have been wider.

 

 

TH got a 46 when asked to do virtually nothing. Howell is getting a 48 when asked to carry the entire team.

Directly comparing the grades from one guy doing a test on fractions while the other guy is in advanced trig is not a good representation of how close these players are to each other.

 

 

Howell's 48 might as well be separated by the Grand Canyon in comparison to TH's 46.

 

Man, I do not like comparing QBs w/ QBR. All of their jobs are different. You can not directly compare the efficiency of a QB who is asked to simply protect the ball and ride in the backseat with someone who has to push the pace and take risks because they are the entirety of the O.

 

 

Same argument for why Wentz QBR w/ the Colts was unimpressive to me, even if it was one of the higher scores in the NFL at the time.

[zCommander]

5 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Sad news, Sam has dropped to 4th in passing yards.

 

I wonder if the bye-week was the reason 😂

[Voice_of_Reason]

18 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't think this is an easy slam dunk decision.  I don't envy the GM because if he gets this wrong -- by running this back or not running this back with Howell, he will and should get roasted for it.  It's a big decision for this organization and he can't blow this IMO.  Again assuming we pick top 5 where its in play.  

I agree with this, but on the flip side, picking a QB, even high, is such an enormous guess, you're going to be wrong more often than you're right. And it's hard to roast a guy for what is essentially an educated guess.  But it's a guess.  A quick look at the history below, if more than 1 QB goes high, history says only 1 will turn out to be good: 

 

In drafts where there were multiple high first round picks. I define "high" as top 5.  

 

2021 - 1 good (Lawrence), 2 bad (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance)

2020 - 2 good (Burrow, Tua) ** Herbert was #6

2018 - 2 bad (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold)

2016 - 1 ok (Jared Goff), 1 bad (Carson Wentz)

2012 - 1 good (Luck), 1 bad (Griffin)

2004 - 2 good (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers) 

2002 - 2 bad (David Carr, Joey Harrington)

1999 - 1 good (McNabb), 2 bad (Tim Couch, Akili Smith)

1998 - 1 good (Peyton), 1 bad (Ryan Leaf)

1995 - 1 good (Steve McNair), 1 ok (Kerry Collins)

1992 - 1 good (Drew Bledsoe), 1 bad (Rick Mirer)

(A pause here just to say 4 of the top 5 in the 1989 draft were FIRE.  #1 Aikamn, #3 Barry Sanders, #4 Derrick Thomas, #5 Deion Sanders.  4 HOF in 5 picks.  Wow.)

1982 - I actually mis-remembered, and thought a QB other than Elway went in the top 5.  They didn't.  Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both in the first.  Marino I knew was the second to last pick.  I thought Kelly went higher, he went 14.  

 

But, look at the list above.  Since 1982, only TWICE have 2 good QBs come out of the same draft when picked in the top 5.  Once was 2020.  Before that it was 2004.  Before that?  I don't know but before 1982.  ** Let's end there, I went back.  2 QBs were not taken in the first 5 picks from 1971 (Archie Manning and Jim Pluncket) - 1992. It just wasn't the thing to do. 

 

The other thing to point out, only once in all the "1 good, 1 bad" has the second guy been the good one: McNabb over Couch.  Otherwise the top guy was always the better guy and the second was probably a reach.  

 

Does this really mean anything?  No.  

 

But multiple QBs high in the draft has always ended in tears for 1 of the teams.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I certainly don’t envy the new guys position.  It’s a lot easier move to make when it’s obvious, and how things have setup for Sam, it’s anything but obvious.

 

Our guys have clearly made their vacation plans and we face good defenses through seasons end.  This is likely going to be a very tough stretch for Sam in pleading his case that we shouldn’t draft a QB with our first pick.

 

Right now, if I had to bet - I’d bet we draft a guy and trade Sam.

I'll use this as a segue into an interesting trend I have seen developing on podcasts:

 

Local guys thing we're going to draft a QB, national folks think we're going to stay with Howell and draft a tackle.

 

Standig had Kevin Sheehan and Grant Paulson on, and all 3 of them said they were drafting a QB.

 

The PFF Draft analyst on Galdi's broadcast, and a couple others (I honestly don't remember who all of them are) have said they think Sam has shown enough and deserves another year and there are better ways to spend the draft capital.

 

I don't know who's right.  I don't really care one way or the other, but I hope they are right.

 

As I said above: it's just a guess.  more than 50% of top 5 QBs bomb out.  You're just making an educated guess, and chances are you're going to be wrong.  Though, we're due for some good luck at the position eventually.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

8 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I wonder if the bye-week was the reason 😂

I blame Ron… and Snyder.

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I agree with this, but on the flip side, picking a QB, even high, is such an enormous guess, you're going to be wrong more often than you're right. And it's hard to roast a guy for what is essentially an educated guess.  But it's a guess.  A quick look at the history below, if more than 1 QB goes high, history says only 1 will turn out to be good: 

 

In drafts where there were multiple high first round picks. I define "high" as top 5.  

 

2021 - 1 good (Lawrence), 2 bad (Zach Wilson, Trey Lance)

2020 - 2 good (Burrow, Tua) ** Herbert was #6

2018 - 2 bad (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold)

2016 - 1 ok (Jared Goff), 1 bad (Carson Wentz)

2012 - 1 good (Luck), 1 bad (Griffin)

2004 - 2 good (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers) 

2002 - 2 bad (David Carr, Joey Harrington)

1999 - 1 good (McNabb), 2 bad (Tim Couch, Akili Smith)

1998 - 1 good (Peyton), 1 bad (Ryan Leaf)

1995 - 1 good (Steve McNair), 1 ok (Kerry Collins)

1992 - 1 good (Drew Bledsoe), 1 bad (Rick Mirer)

(A pause here just to say 4 of the top 5 in the 1989 draft were FIRE.  #1 Aikamn, #3 Barry Sanders, #4 Derrick Thomas, #5 Deion Sanders.  4 HOF in 5 picks.  Wow.)

1982 - I actually mis-remembered, and thought a QB other than Elway went in the top 5.  They didn't.  Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both in the first.  Marino I knew was the second to last pick.  I thought Kelly went higher, he went 14.  

 

But, look at the list above.  Since 1982, only TWICE have 2 good QBs come out of the same draft when picked in the top 5.  Once was 2020.  Before that it was 2004.  Before that?  I don't know but before 1982.  ** Let's end there, I went back.  2 QBs were not taken in the first 5 picks from 1971 (Archie Manning and Jim Pluncket) - 1992. It just wasn't the thing to do. 

 

The other thing to point out, only once in all the "1 good, 1 bad" has the second guy been the good one: McNabb over Couch.  Otherwise the top guy was always the better guy and the second was probably a reach.  

 

Does this really mean anything?  No.  

 

But multiple QBs high in the draft has always ended in tears for 1 of the teams.  

 

With that list how many were touted as borderline can't miss.  I recall all those drafts well. 

 

2021 Lawrence

2020 Burrow

2018 considered deep but none of them ballyhooed like Burrow, Lawrence, Luck, etc

2012 Luck.  RG3 borderline, he had his critics too

1998. Payton, Leaf

 

To me there is a difference between hey these guys look elite or borderline can't miss versus very good-talented.  Drake Maye and Caleb are billed by most as elite.  Kyler Murray is probably a good comp for Jayden Daniels.  Murray peaking late in his college career with uber mobility but concerns about durability.  Murray had hype but not as an elite guy.

 

But I really don't care.  We aren't typically picking at Tiffanys when it comes to jewelry.  For those that say, yeah but screw it lets polish the jewel we got and see where that goes -- while I am ok with that idea I am not saying lets walk right by Tiffany's and not even consider what they got.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'll use this as a segue into an interesting trend I have seen developing on podcasts:

 

Local guys thing we're going to draft a QB, national folks think we're going to stay with Howell and draft a tackle.

 

Standig had Kevin Sheehan and Grant Paulson on, and all 3 of them said they were drafting a QB.

 

The PFF Draft analyst on Galdi's broadcast, and a couple others (I honestly don't remember who all of them are) have said they think Sam has shown enough and deserves another year and there are better ways to spend the draft capital.

 

 

I've seen us take Daniels now in multiple mocks.  It leans O line for sure though.   

 

Yeah local reporters have gone beyond my point of consider a QB, most think they actually will take one.

 

The irony of that is I've found all year the local media being more positive than most of the national media about Howell.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

With that list how many were touted as borderline can't miss.  I recall all those drafts well. 

 

2021 Lawrence

2020 Burrow

2018 considered deep but none of them ballyhooed like Burrow, Lawrence, Luck, etc

2012 Luck.  RG3 borderline, he had his critics too

1998. Payton, Leaf

 

To me there is a difference between hey these guys look elite or borderline can't miss versus very good-talented.  Drake Maye and Caleb are billed by most as elite.  Kyler Murray is probably a good comp for Jayden Daniels.  Murray peaking late in his college career with uber mobility but concerns about durability.  Murray had hype but not as an elite guy.

 

But I really don't care.  We aren't typically picking at Tiffanys when it comes to jewelry.  For those that say, yeah but screw it lets polish the jewel we got and see where that goes -- while I am ok with that idea I am not saying lets walk right by Tiffany's and not even consider what they got.

 

 

The Eagles, Bears and 49ers traded UP to get Wentz, Trubisky and Lance.

 

I don't put a lot of stock in the going theory of who's can't miss vs. who's not of the draftnik super-heads.  That's all conjecture from Mel and Todd, and what they think based on 1/3 of the evaluation.  They can only watch film and get measurables.  They don't see medicals or sit in interviews.  And yet they draw definitive conclusions about players based on 1/3 of the important information.  Love Mel. He's the best.  But the industry thinks it's right much more often than it is, and then they are arrogant about it.  Mel was arrogant about it too.  But when he did it it was groundbreaking television.  It's not that anymore.

 

I put a lot more stock in what NFL teams did.  

 

You don't pick a guy in the top 5 who you think might be just "ok."  You pick a guy there because you think you have a 10-15 year pro-bowl level starter.  And you damn sure don't trade up to #2 if you don't think you're getting a total stud.

 

If an organization picked a player in the top 5, they thought he was elite.  

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've seen us take Daniels now in multiple mocks.  It leans O line for sure though.   

 

Yeah local reporters have gone beyond my point of consider a QB, most think they actually will take one.

 

The irony of that is I've found all year the local media being more positive than most of the national media about Howell.  

When you accept the fact our local media sucks skunky eggs for breakfast, you accept they know nothing and have virtually no sources about anything.  They probably have no idea what the hell they are saying day by day and now they're just making stuff up on the fly.  

 

Mocks are fun.  Useless.  But fun. Virtually none of the people who mock anything have sources, they're just guessing.  

 

Mel actually has sources, so his mocks, you take a peak at.  

 

It would be impossible to know what Washington would do given the person doing the player picking is working for some other organization. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The Eagles, Bears and 49ers traded UP to get Wentz, Trubisky and Lance.

 

 

 

Yeah I know none of them were build as can't miss transcedent type of QBs.

 

I don't really care about the billing about these QBs but if the point is to play that game.  You got three different types

 

A.  There is no such thing as can't miss, but this guy is as close as it gets.

 

B.  They are very talented, if it all comes together for them watch out.

 

Wentz and Lance and Trubisky were in category B.  Not A.   Wentz had decent stats but nothing crazy in college.  62% completion rate his last college season, yawn.  You are betting on his upside.  Lance was raw but you are betting on upside.  I don't recall much hype about Trubisky so I struggle with recalling the narrative about him.  But these guys weren't billed as can't miss guys.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

I'm looking at Sam's stats again through a different lens and I can see why he dropped in the draft. His 2021 year is so different than 2020. I meen night and day. By so many metrics. CFR doesn't keep track of sacks which is what I have been wanting to measure, but other things like his game by game completion percentage (3 games below 60 in 2020, 4 in 2021), his game by game TDs, his number of big games (a 6 TD game in 2020, none in 2021, a 4 TD game in 2020, none in 2021). Its not a dramatic dropoff but it is a dropoff. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

When you accept the fact our local media sucks skunky eggs for breakfast, you accept they know nothing and have virtually no sources about anything.  They probably have no idea what the hell they are saying day by day and now they're just making stuff up on the fly.  

 

Mocks are fun.  Useless.  But fun. Virtually none of the people who mock anything have sources, they're just guessing.  

 

Mel actually has sources, so his mocks, you take a peak at.  

 

It would be impossible to know what Washington would do given the person doing the player picking is working for some other organization. 

 

 

I recall you didn't even like the local media when they were taking shots at Dan Snyder and wanted that all to stop.  So I figure they can't win with you in any scenario.

 

Mel isn't the only one with sources among mock drafters.  But yeah they are just fun right now. 

 

11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

If an organization picked a player in the top 5, they thought he was elite.  

 

 

Nope.  It's that its a Qb league.  If you don't have that guy, you just don't skip it because the prospect level isn't Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, etc -- you take the best one and hope for the best.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah I know none of them were build as can't miss transcedent type of QBs.

 

I don't really care about the billing about these QBs but if the point is to play that game.  You got three different types

 

A.  There is no such thing as can't miss, but this guy is as close as it gets.

 

B.  They are very talented, if it all comes together for them watch out.

 

Wentz and Lance and Trubisky were in category B.  Not A.   Wentz had decent stats but nothing crazy in college.  62% completion rate his last college season, yawn.  You are betting on his upside.  Lance was raw but you are betting on upside.  I don't recall much hype about Trubisky so I struggle with recalling the narrative about him.  But these guys weren't billed as can't miss guys.

 

 

Who's doing the billing?  The draftnik super-heads.  Who's opinion doesn't matter. Except to fans who think they knows things.  Which, eh, some might, most are a hairdo.  

 

You're drafted based on promise, not past production.

 

Organizations will not trade up for a guy on their board who is a "B" rated player.  That's how GMs get fired. You trade up because you think you've got an "A" stud.  

 

When an organization drafts a guy in the top 5, they are saying definitively they have that player as an "A" prospect.  Period.  Sure, QBs get over-drafted.  But you're not drafting a "B" player on your board with a top 5 pick.  Otherwise a whole lot more QBs who are drafted 6-15 would go 1-5.  

 

But look at 2018: Trubisky went #2 and Mahomes went #10. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I recall you didn't even like the local media when they were taking shots at Dan Snyder and wanted that all to stop.  So I figure they can't win with you in any scenario.

Well, when they get half a brain, I'll start paying attention to them.  Until then, they are simply lowering the IQ of the fan base.  With a few notable exceptions.  

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Mel isn't the only one with sources among mock drafters.  But yeah they are just fun right now. 

I'm not sure if Mel still has sources.  He's basically partially retired.  

 

The draft is all about lying season.  Mel, because he was revolutionary, had a little more information than others. 

 

They're never anything more than useless fun.  I will say, the teams DO look at them, I can't remember which GM said they cast a sideways glace at them, just to see where the national attention was, but nothing more than that. 

 

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Nope.  It's that its a Qb league.  If you don't have that guy, you just don't skip it because the prospect level isn't Lawrence, Burrow, Luck, etc -- you take the best one and hope for the best.

That's absolutely not correct.  And to prove it, just look at the 2020 draft.  You can't convince me there were no teams at the top of the draft who needed a QB.  The QB draft was seen to be pretty bad.  No team reached for a QB. 

 

Teams will only take a player in the top 5 if they think it's as close to can't miss as they can possibly get to it.  And then, they're wrong more than 50% of the time.  

[KDawg]

Since we’re having conversations about stuff that probably won’t happen…

 

If the Chargers call us and say, “We want your first and McLaurin and we’ll give you Herbert and our second…”

 

Who says no?

[DWinzit]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Since we’re having conversations about stuff that probably won’t happen…

 

If the Chargers call us and say, “We want your first and McLaurin and we’ll give you Herbert and our second…”

 

Who says no?

WOW! You made smoke billow from ears thinking about this one

 

If we didn't have Howell or if he looks worse through the remainder of the year -  I would say "hell yeah" I'd take that trade in a heart beat.

 

 

 

[KDawg]

Just now, DWinzit said:

WOW! You made smoke billow from ears thinking about this one

 

If we didn't have Howell or if he looks worse through the remainder of the year -  I would say "hell yeah" I'd take that trade in a heart beat.

 

 

 

Well, it was a trick question… if the Chargers called us we’d have to be the ones to say no…

 

Having said that… I don’t know how I’d feel about this. The contract is a big deal… and Herbert can’t get out of his own way record wise… 

 

But he’s a proven NFL QB. If we were going to draft one I’d rather have one who has had at least shown up in the NFL if that’s on the table. 

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Well, it was a trick question… if the Chargers called us we’d have to be the ones to say no…

 

Having said that… I don’t know how I’d feel about this. The contract is a big deal… and Herbert can’t get out of his own way record wise… 

 

But he’s a proven NFL QB. If we were going to draft one I’d rather have one who has had at least shown up in the NFL if that’s on the table. 

 True

 

A new GM, HC and OC would love to start off with a Herbert as their QB. They know what they are getting, a good solid proven QB.

 

I do hate that it would mean Howell doesn't get a shot and becomes a backup...or trade bait and we need to find or draft another QB.

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm looking at Sam's stats again through a different lens and I can see why he dropped in the draft. His 2021 year is so different than 2020. I meen night and day. By so many metrics. CFR doesn't keep track of sacks which is what I have been wanting to measure, but other things like his game by game completion percentage (3 games below 60 in 2020, 4 in 2021), his game by game TDs, his number of big games (a 6 TD game in 2020, none in 2021, a 4 TD game in 2020, none in 2021). Its not a dramatic dropoff but it is a dropoff. 

Do you think Sam is only as good as the talent around him as opposed to being a QB who can make players around him better because of how great a QB he is? I know that's a tough question but there is a very small pattern here between his college and pro years (very small sample size). Is this a factor moving forward and part of the decision to stay with Sam or not? I know Sam has a big arm, can run and is very, very tough....but does he need a great supporting cast to be great?

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Who's doing the billing?  The draftnik super-heads.  Who's opinion doesn't matter. Except to fans who think they knows things.  Which, eh, some might, most are a hairdo.  

 

You're drafted based on promise, not past production.

 

Organizations will not trade up for a guy on their board who is a "B" rated player.  That's how GMs get fired. You trade up because you think you've got an "A" stud.  

 

When an organization drafts a guy in the top 5, they are saying definitively they have that player as an "A" prospect.  Period.  Sure, QBs get over-drafted.  But you're not drafting a "B" player on your board with a top 5 pick.  Otherwise a whole lot more QBs who are drafted 6-15 would go 1-5.  

 

But look at 2018: Trubisky went #2 and Mahomes went #10. 

 

If you want to argue that Sam Darnold for example flashed the same way as Andrew Luck in college.  Or Trey Lance showed the same prowess as Joe Burrow.  And its all apples to apples because all of these QBs were picked in the top 5.  And all drafts are kind of the same.  Cool.  Lets agree to disagree.  

Edited December 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Do you think Sam is only as good as the talent around him as opposed to being a QB who can make players around him better because of how great a QB he is? I know that's a tough question but there is a very small pattern here between his college and pro years (very small sample size). Is this a factor moving forward and part of the decision to stay with Sam or not? I know Sam has a big arm, can run and is very, very tough....but does he need a great supporting cast to be great?

 

We really are slaves to numbers and don't love to account for context at all.

 

 

Can you explain why we think that his numbers dipped? His production shifted to rushing yards. In 2020 he accounted for 3,732 yards and 36 TD.

 

In 2021 he accounted for 3,884 yards and 35 TD.

 

Now, let's juxtapose this with a potential top 3 QB taken in the 2024 draft:

 

 

2022 he had an incredible year. Absolutely absurd.

 

Then in 23 he has dipped. 4000 yards (solid), 33 TD (solid).

 

Can you tell me why Drake Maye is a better prospect than Howell?

 

Oh, and the real fun...

 

Yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt...

 

Howell: 8.6/9.7, 10.3/11.1, 8.8/9.0

 

Maye: 8.4/9.2, 8.5/8.7

 

Maye's 2022 ridiculous season he threw the ball 517 times. Howell, in his 2020 season threw it 348 times.

 

Why do we keep moving the goal posts?

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Do you think Sam is only as good as the talent around him as opposed to being a QB who can make players around him better because of how great a QB he is? I know that's a tough question but there is a very small pattern here between his college and pro years (very small sample size). Is this a factor moving forward and part of the decision to stay with Sam or not? I know Sam has a big arm, can run and is very, very tough....but does he need a great supporting cast to be great?

A little of both. Accuracy shouldn't just go away because your stars did. So him having more games with below 60 comp % looks bad. It may be because of drops though like here. His CPOE is ridiculous. I can't find it for college. 

 

I think he showed he can take over a game and put it on his back with his legs. And that's what he did in 2021. That's something that was unknown about him, and it brought his team up. But his passing numbers weren't as good as they were expecting. 

 

I just found some stuff like CPOE called QBOPS for the drafts and it had Howell ranked low because it said he locked on his number 1 too much and wouldn't be anything and had Pickett really high on this class. 

 

Quote

Sam Howell

WROPS: .369/.690/.1.059

CPOE: +1.8

 

Sam Howell had major accuracy problems and threw far too many interceptions for me to seriously consider him. While his 2020 was better, it was only marginally so, and I prefer prospects who improve in their final season. That dynamic sophomore season was driven primarily by receivers Dazz Newsome (6th round, Chicago Bears) and Dyami Brown (3rd round, Washington Commanders), and without his two top targets, he locked on to sophomore Josh Downs far too frequently. Downs’ 101 receptions were 70 more than the next closest Tar Heel receiver. Carolina runs one of the most quarterback friendly schemes in college football, and I expect far more out of any potential pro prospect from that system. Accuracy and sacks are the major red flag here to go along with 9 picks.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/25/23039869/nfl-draft-2022-what-qbops-can-tell-us-about-the-quarterbacks

Edited December 12, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[MartinC]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'll use this as a segue into an interesting trend I have seen developing on podcasts:

 

Local guys thing we're going to draft a QB, national folks think we're going to stay with Howell and draft a tackle.

 

Standig had Kevin Sheehan and Grant Paulson on, and all 3 of them said they were drafting a QB.

 

The PFF Draft analyst on Galdi's broadcast, and a couple others (I honestly don't remember who all of them are) have said they think Sam has shown enough and deserves another year and there are better ways to spend the draft capital.

 

I don't know who's right.  I don't really care one way or the other, but I hope they are right.

 

As I said above: it's just a guess.  more than 50% of top 5 QBs bomb out.  You're just making an educated guess, and chances are you're going to be wrong.  Though, we're due for some good luck at the position eventually.

It has to be a guess at this point - unless they know who the GM is going to be and have managed to get some feeling of his views.
 

Which they haven’t.’