The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Warhead36]

4 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

It would be so tempting to ride with Howell and use this years first on OL, a stud playmaker or even trade down, then see what we have in Howell. But when will we ever pick this high again and have the opportunity to get a top QB? If Sam proves to not be the guy this year we are probably going to be stuck outside the top 5 and looking to trade up or be out of the running all together in next years draft. Going to be a fascinating few months. This GM pick couldn't be more important. 

But it kinda works both ways. If Howell is at least pretty good, and you can parlay that top 5 pick into a whole bunch of draft capital, you can also really set yourself up well for the future. In that situation, even if Howell doesn't pan out, you have a supplement of resources to find the next guy.

 

The new GM will have a yuge decision to make to say the least...

[mac8887]

I really don't get the howell love. Everyone keeps saying it's basically his first year, it's not, it's toward the end of his second year. We haven't seen him get any better since the beginning of this year. His metrics are not good. In most He is 22 or worse. He leads the league in picks, and even worse pick 6s and has had 2 other pick 6s dropped along with 4 other dropped into. He throws into double and triple teams all the time. His accuracy is subpar more often than not. And the thing that is the worst is that he never steps up into the pocket. He is to short with short arms so he can't step up in the pocket, he won't be able to see anything. So instead what happens is he tries to run out and runs right into defenders arms for sacks, ive seen it happen so many times, hi pocket presense is not good, its like he doesnt feel the pressure at all. He drops back and stands flat footed like a statue a lot. He holds the ball to long which causes more sacks. He has had a few fumbles, one for a td for the other team. I mean yes he has made a few good plays but not enough to win games, and he has made just as many awful plays if not more. Maybe one day he will be ok/decent to possibly even middle of the pack good, but is that really worth passing on a top 5 pick at qb that is a possible blue chipper on a cheap contract for 5 years? I say most definitely not. Sam is like a short Jason Campbell. People say maye is a taller sam howell and would rather keep sam howell because they like him so much. Why, if you think maye is a taller sam howell and you like sam you should like maye even more. Plus c williams and j daniels look to have unbelievable potential, I'm talking Mahomes and Lamar. And I personally like maye a lot as well. If we can get one of those three without trading up you have to do it. We can't afford to pass on the next Tua or Herbert again.

[Thinking Skins]

17 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

It would be so tempting to ride with Howell and use this years first on OL, a stud playmaker or even trade down, then see what we have in Howell. But when will we ever pick this high again and have the opportunity to get a top QB? If Sam proves to not be the guy this year we are probably going to be stuck outside the top 5 and looking to trade up or be out of the running all together in next years draft. Going to be a fascinating few months. This GM pick couldn't be more important. 

This is where a lot of GMs and NFL execs are coming in and saying that where Howell measures up vs this year's class. Someone brought up the bird in the hand argument which holds a lot of water and we have already seen what Howell can do. Kevin Sheehan has argued that this is the worse season in franchise history. But I contend with that because while we could easily have lost some games, but

 - we could have just as easily won the Philly game if we went for 2;

 - the Giants 1 game if Dotson makes that catch;

 - The Seattle game if the def holds and win in OT;

 - And the Giants 2 if not for that Holmes inteception by Howell and the Rodrigues fumble both when we were on drives deep in NY territory (at the 38 and 14 respectivey) and we win that game because we get 2 FGs and we are not trying to force that last pass for the pic 6 and we win 25-24. 

 

We are a team that is led by a young QB and a first year offense. So everybody is undertain about where to go and things like spacing and routes and stuff like that. Still the offense if doing a LOT better than the defese. That's why I don't see why we need to act like Howell has been the problem this year. Yes he has made mistakes, but he has also kept us in a lot of games this year.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[philibusters]

I feel like Kyler Murray and Sam Howell are in similar situations.  Both are the QB for teams that could have early picks that could be used for their replacement.  The best chance for both of them to keep their job next year is to win 2 out of the final 4 games.   For both of them that almost definitely takes Williams and Maye off the board and potentially takes Daniels off the board.  I think more likely than not Daniels will go in the first half of the first round, whether that is 3 or 13 I don't have a strong guess on.  But if Howell wants to keep his job he needs to win 2 out of the final 4 games.  That probably has us picking around pick 9 or something like that, where there is a reasonably shot the top 3 QBs are off the board.

[mojo]

57 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This is where a lot of GMs and NFL execs are coming in and saying that where Howell measures up vs this year's class. Someone brought up the bird in the hand argument which holds a lot of water and we have already seen what Howell can do. Kevin Sheehan has argued that this is the worse season in franchise history. But I contend with that because while we could easily have lost some games, but

 - we could have just as easily won the Philly game if we went for 2;

 - the Giants 1 game if Dotson makes that catch;

 - The Seattle game if the def holds and win in OT;

 - And the Giants 2 if not for that Holmes inteception by Howell and the Rodrigues fumble both when we were on drives deep in NY territory (at the 38 and 14 respectivey) and we win that game because we get 2 FGs and we are not trying to force that last pass for the pic 6 and we win 25-24. 

 

We are a team that is led by a young QB and a first year offense. So everybody is undertain about where to go and things like spacing and routes and stuff like that. Still the offense if doing a LOT better than the defese. That's why I don't see why we need to act like Howell has been the problem this year. Yes he has made mistakes, but he has also kept us in a lot of games this year.

 

We could've easily lost every game we won as well.

[Redskins 2021]

19 minutes ago, philibusters said:

I feel like Kyler Murray and Sam Howell are in similar situations.  Both are the QB for teams that could have early picks that could be used for their replacement.  The best chance for both of them to keep their job next year is to win 2 out of the final 4 games.   For both of them that almost definitely takes Williams and Maye off the board and potentially takes Daniels off the board.  I think more likely than not Daniels will go in the first half of the first round, whether that is 3 or 13 I don't have a strong guess on.  But if Howell wants to keep his job he needs to win 2 out of the final 4 games.  That probably has us picking around pick 9 or something like that, where there is a reasonably shot the top 3 QBs are off the board.

 The problem for the Cardinals with Murray is he already been paid so he will be very difficult to get rid of without destroying the team cap.

[Koolblue13]

42 minutes ago, philibusters said:

I feel like Kyler Murray and Sam Howell are in similar situations.  Both are the QB for teams that could have early picks that could be used for their replacement.  The best chance for both of them to keep their job next year is to win 2 out of the final 4 games.   For both of them that almost definitely takes Williams and Maye off the board and potentially takes Daniels off the board.  I think more likely than not Daniels will go in the first half of the first round, whether that is 3 or 13 I don't have a strong guess on.  But if Howell wants to keep his job he needs to win 2 out of the final 4 games.  That probably has us picking around pick 9 or something like that, where there is a reasonably shot the top 3 QBs are off the board.

That **** contract has him on the roster next year, but I don't think Gannon is going to deal with his bull**** and he proved he can play well enough to win without him. 

 

I'd be shocked if they didn't draft a QB at some point. Might be day two though.

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, mojo said:

We could've easily lost every game we won as well.

Yeah I was saying that from the beginning. But that was the joy about the beginning of the season with Sam, every game was so close. There have been instances where we could have taken games over like the Atlanta game some deep shots but they were dropped. Other games it just seemed like we took out foot off the ingition and let them back in it either on defense or offense. 

 

But yeah you're right. 

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 The problem for the Cardinals with Murray is he already been paid so he will be very difficult to get rid of without destroying the team cap.

 

If they traded him this offseason the deadcap for the Cardinals would be about 46.5 million.   I don't know their cap situation but they probably could make that work if they really prefer say Drake Maye over Murray.

 

I do think the Cardinals could find a trade partner for Murray.  Given that the Cardinals would be stuck taking the deadcap hit for 46.5 million of the contract (the prorated portion of the signing bonus), its not that bad of a deal.  Essentially you would be trading for a 4 year 180 million dollar deal but importantly after the first year (30 million) almost none of it is guaranteed.  Kind of similar to the situation we had with Carson Wentz.  So Kyler Murray is tradeable but the Cardinals have to take a deadcap hit of 46.5 million if they do that and that is a lot of deadcap, but probably doable.  That said I only think they do it if it for Williams and Maye, which is why Murray can secure his future there by simply winning a couple games in the remainder of this season.

Edited December 14, 2023 by philibusters

[CapsSkins]

If Maye is available, you almost have to take him because I think being 6' 4" vs. Sam Howell at 6' 1" makes a significant difference in seeing the field.

 

Jayden Daniels is also 6' 4" but his frame is skinnier which may suggest durability concerns. Daniels is two inches taller than Lamar and listed as ~5 pounds lighter. Maybe you tell him to get up to at least 220, but you hope he doesn't lose his burst. 

[Thinking Skins]

15 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

If Maye is available, you almost have to take him because I think being 6' 4" vs. Sam Howell at 6' 1" makes a significant difference in seeing the field.

 

Jayden Daniels is also 6' 4" but his frame is skinnier which may suggest durability concerns. Daniels is two inches taller than Lamar and listed as ~5 pounds lighter. Maybe you tell him to get up to at least 220, but you hope he doesn't lose his burst. 

Thing about Maye is that you don't know if Maye can do what he's doing in college in the Pros. you and I think he can, but its not perfect fit. How many times has EB said that Sam "never makes the same mistake twice". Now I know that's just a saying, but Sam is a coach's son, and studies hard, keeps a level head, and is able to rally a team when we're down 27-3. Those are things we can't say what Maye will do under next year because he's not in the pros yet.

 

I think you're overvalung the 6'4 height thing too much. 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by Thinking Skins

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

Thing about Maye is that you don't know if Maye can do what he's doing in college in the Pros. you and I think he can, but its not perfect fit. How many times has EB said that Sam "never makes the same mistake twice". Now I know that's just a saying, but Sam is a coach's son, and studies hard, keeps a level head, and is able to rally a team when we're down 27-3. Those are things we can't say what Maye will do under next year because he's not in the pros yet.

 

I think you're overvalung the 6'4 height thing too much. 

 

 

It's not about batted balls. It's about being able to see routes developing, receivers getting open, where are the defenders, etc. It's also about being able to step up in the pocket vs. bailing out and cutting the field in half, or worse running into a pass rusher, as Sam is wont to do as @mac8887 pointed out.

 

I've said before, if they go QB, I think you still keep Sam and declare him the starter going into 2024. The rookie - let's say Maye for argument's sake - redshirts while the new staff sees what they have in Howell in the new system & with an improved OL. Meanwhile, they are closely watching Maye in practice to see what he's like at the pro level - in the meeting room, on the practice field, with his teammates, etc.

 

QB is so important you gotta give yourself every chance to find & keep the right guy. Drafting a guy and immediately trading Howell is dumb for the same reason not considering going QB for a top guy would be dumb.

 

After 2024, you make a decision about extending or trading Howell and figuring out who you start in 2025.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

There is not a world that exists where Maye or any other top of draft QB redshirts for Howell.  No way.  If this team drafts a QB in the first, it will be a bunch of “we haven’t given up on Sam” and “competition” talk that has zero truth to it.  You don’t draft a guy in the first to have him sit behind  a guy with 17 starts.

[CapsSkins]

4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

There is not a world that exists where Maye or any other top of draft QB redshirts for Howell.  No way.  If this team drafts a QB in the first, it will be a bunch of “we haven’t given up on Sam” and “competition” talk that has zero truth to it.  You don’t draft a guy in the first to have him sit behind  a guy with 17 starts.

 

Why not? Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for a year. Not that Howell is a proven vet like Smith, but I see no reason why a rookie QB has to start in his first year simply because of draft pedigree. Earlier is not always better.

[Thinking Skins]

Look at the chart though at some of the names. Its not just about Howell 

 

Tua is 6'1 and he leads the league in passing yards

Purdy is 6-1 and he is 3rd

Howell is 6-1 and he is 5th

Hurts is 6-1 and his team is 10-3

Mayfield is 6-1 and Tampa's leading the division

Russell Wilson is 5-11 

Gardner Minshew is 6-1 and Indy's leading the division

 

I can go on and on with other examples from previous years but I'm at work.

 

And like I said we know about Howell's mental makeup. That counts for a lot. We didn;t know about Shuler or Frerotte until they came in the house. Same with Griffin and Cousins. Same with Haskins. I'm betting that it will be the same for Maye. We won't know his decision making and why he decided to throw it into triple coverage when there was a guy open underneath on thrid down, and why he did it again, or why he chose to run for the first when there's a guy open. These are the kinds of mistakes that rookies make and fans bang their heads about like what is he doing then they watch them grow out of it. We laughed as Daniel Jones took 4 years to grow out of it (and still hasn't). That could be Maye as well. 

 

"a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

[CapsSkins]

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

"a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

 

My point is we can keep the bird in hand *and* go grab however many are in the bush. Keep both for 2024 and you don't have to make a blind guess as to who's better.

 

Height is not the end-all, be-all but if you can get a guy with Howell's skillset who is also taller then that's appealing.

 

I have no doubt Howell can be very good and a long-term starter. But it's not 100%, and given our draft positioning, if you can get a top prospect who could be elite, I think they should because the position is that important.

 

Maybe the new regime won't be enamored with Maye or Daniels and they go MHJr or LT. Totally cool. But if they do love a prospect and can get him without trading up, I think that becomes the move even if they also believe in Howell. Give yourself two bites at the apple.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

13 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Why not? Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for a year. Not that Howell is a proven vet like Smith, but I see no reason why a rookie QB has to start in his first year simply because of draft pedigree. Earlier is not always better.

When you have a proven vet, it’s a luxury to sit the new kid for a bit.  But when you have a kid with 17 starts, It’s an exercise in futility.  There’s only but so many reps to go around.  At best you can pretend it’s a competition going into camp, but you cannot proclaim Sam starter.

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

When you have a proven vet, it’s a luxury to sit the new kid for a bit.  But when you have a kid with 17 starts, It’s an exercise in futility.  There’s only but so many reps to go around.  At best you can pretend it’s a competition going into camp, but you cannot proclaim Sam starter.

 

But why not? You say this like it's incontrovertible truth, and maybe I am just being dense, but I do not see why you cannot go into training camp saying Sam is the presumed starter and will receive starter's reps while Rookie is the back-up.

 

The honest to god truth you tell each player (and their agents) is if they perform at a high level, they will get an opportunity - whether in Washington or elsehwere.

[skinsmania123]

4 hours ago, mac8887 said:

I really don't get the howell love. Everyone keeps saying it's basically his first year, it's not, it's toward the end of his second year. We haven't seen him get any better since the beginning of this year. His metrics are not good. In most He is 22 or worse. He leads the league in picks, and even worse pick 6s and has had 2 other pick 6s dropped along with 4 other dropped into. He throws into double and triple teams all the time. His accuracy is subpar more often than not. And the thing that is the worst is that he never steps up into the pocket. He is to short with short arms so he can't step up in the pocket, he won't be able to see anything. So instead what happens is he tries to run out and runs right into defenders arms for sacks, ive seen it happen so many times, hi pocket presense is not good, its like he doesnt feel the pressure at all. He drops back and stands flat footed like a statue a lot. He holds the ball to long which causes more sacks. He has had a few fumbles, one for a td for the other team. I mean yes he has made a few good plays but not enough to win games, and he has made just as many awful plays if not more. Maybe one day he will be ok/decent to possibly even middle of the pack good, but is that really worth passing on a top 5 pick at qb that is a possible blue chipper on a cheap contract for 5 years? I say most definitely not. Sam is like a short Jason Campbell. People say maye is a taller sam howell and would rather keep sam howell because they like him so much. Why, if you think maye is a taller sam howell and you like sam you should like maye even more. Plus c williams and j daniels look to have unbelievable potential, I'm talking Mahomes and Lamar. And I personally like maye a lot as well. If we can get one of those three without trading up you have to do it. We can't afford to pass on the next Tua or Herbert again.

What are you talking about. He is a first-year starter.  He is a rookie by any comparison standard.  And if you go through the history of the league of first year starters in the NFL at QB, who went on to be quite good, I think you would be surprised, at how poorly to average they played their first year starting. Our defense has been putrid this year. Our play calling on offense because of EB, has been so predictable, the defenses only need to crowd the middle, and blitz.  If you haven't noticed, guys have been having a real difficult time breaking free from the coverages and getting open.  Is that scheme or is it on our receivers? Their ability to get YAC even if they do get the ball, well placed, and in stride has not been great.  Our O line is ineffective at consistently setting blocks and completing their assignments.  Now what does this lead to? A QB holding the ball too long.  A QB running for his life. A QB not having enough time to make the proper reads. And people talk about his inability to get the ball out, but if guys are not getting separation, which they have struggled with all year, i.e. Dotson, who, even though I like,  has been a drop machine in a few games, along with Brown and even Terry has dropped a few.  With our defense, which is a putrid pile of steaming garbage, there is little room for error. Our Offense is more often than not playing from behind.   

 

With all that said, I do trust the GM to get the right guy in there at QB. If he does not want to roll with Howell so be it. But this roster is so low level, with holes and upgrades needs all over it.  I think you start building a roster. And you keep Howell for another year.   

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

 

But why not? You say this like it's incontrovertible truth, and maybe I am just being dense, but I do not see why you cannot go into training camp saying Sam is the presumed starter and will receive starter's reps while Rookie is the back-up.

 

The honest to god truth you tell each player (and their agents) is if they perform at a high level, they will get an opportunity - whether in Washington or elsehwere.

It’s disingenuous at best.  There’s no reason to utilize your first pick in the draft at QB if you believe Sam’s good enough to be your unquestioned starter.  Why waste the first of the cheap 5 year window, starting the guy who caused you to draft somebody else?

 

I’m not saying you have to trade Sam if you draft a round 1 QB.  You can do the whole competition facade for a few weeks in camp.  But it’s probably just better to trade Sam, sign a vet and roll with the guy you drafted.

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It’s disingenuous at best.  There’s no reason to utilize your first pick in the draft at QB if you believe Sam’s good enough to be your unquestioned starter.  Why waste the first of the cheap 5 year window, starting the guy who caused you to draft somebody else?

 

I’m not saying you have to trade Sam if you draft a round 1 QB.  You can do the whole competition facade for a few weeks in camp.  But it’s probably just better to trade Sam, sign a vet and roll with the guy you drafted.

 

But this part isn't true.

 

I believe Sam could grow into being a high-quality long-term starter. But I don't know that for 100% certain. I believe (or lets say my scouts believe) Maye or Daniels could be an elite franchise QB in the NFL. But we can't know that for 100% certain.

 

Starting Sam and redshirting the rookie in 2024 allows further visibility into both players, for Sam in the new system with a better supporting cast and for the rookie in the NFL period. The rookie would have a 5th year option available, so using one year to get some seasoning on the bench is not a big deal. Sam would likely need an extension after the season, which he could sign here or with a new team after getting traded following the season. Or maybe Sam falters, doesn't generate any trade interest, and we keep him as a backup for the last year of his contract without giving him a big extension.

 

If we were 100% ready to commit to or move on from Sam, I'd agree with you. But I think we're in somewhat unique middle ground.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

6 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

But this part isn't true.

 

I believe Sam could grow into being a high-quality long-term starter. But I don't know that for 100% certain. I believe (or lets say my scouts believe) Maye or Daniels could be an elite franchise QB in the NFL. But we can't know that for 100% certain.

 

Starting Sam and redshirting the rookie in 2024 allows further visibility into both players, for Sam in the new system with a better supporting cast and for the rookie in the NFL period. The rookie would have a 5th year option available, so using one year to get some seasoning on the bench is not a big deal. Sam would likely need an extension after the season, which he could sign here or with a new team after getting traded following the season. Or maybe Sam falters, doesn't generate any trade interest, and we keep him as a backup for the last year of his contract without giving him a big extension.

 

If we were 100% ready to commit to or move on from Sam, I'd agree with you. But I think we're in somewhat unique middle ground.

I just think it’s inviting unnecessary drama into the locker room for a new coach instilling a new culture and system. 

[Conn]

58 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Look at the chart though at some of the names. Its not just about Howell 

 

Tua is 6'1 and he leads the league in passing yards

Purdy is 6-1 and he is 3rd

Howell is 6-1 and he is 5th

Hurts is 6-1 and his team is 10-3

Mayfield is 6-1 and Tampa's leading the division

Russell Wilson is 5-11 

Gardner Minshew is 6-1 and Indy's leading the division

 

I can go on and on with other examples from previous years but I'm at work.

 

And like I said we know about Howell's mental makeup. That counts for a lot. We didn;t know about Shuler or Frerotte until they came in the house. Same with Griffin and Cousins. Same with Haskins. I'm betting that it will be the same for Maye. We won't know his decision making and why he decided to throw it into triple coverage when there was a guy open underneath on thrid down, and why he did it again, or why he chose to run for the first when there's a guy open. These are the kinds of mistakes that rookies make and fans bang their heads about like what is he doing then they watch them grow out of it. We laughed as Daniel Jones took 4 years to grow out of it (and still hasn't). That could be Maye as well. 

 

"a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

I don’t really get what you’re saying here. Howell does all of those things and we don’t know if he’ll grow out of it, that’s a projection just as much as the guys you’re talking about. You’re talking as if Howell has already grown out of those habits. We haven’t seen that yet. And Howell improving is a very possible outcome, I’m just saying that you’re giving Howell credit for growth that we haven’t seen yet. You’re double-counting his potential because you’re more comfortable with him, when the prospects also have potential (higher, according to most people) and the ability to grow. So until we actually see Howell grow, you’re just assuming it’s inevitable. 

[zCommander]

29 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

I believe Sam could grow into being a high-quality long-term starter. But I don't know that for 100% certain. I believe (or lets say my scouts believe) Maye or Daniels could be an elite franchise QB in the NFL. But we can't know that for 100% certain.re in somewhat unique middle ground.

 

How high were your scouts on Howell? Most scouts had him 1st or 2nd before his last year in college. Or you not going to believe those scouts now? But you are going to believe what they say about Maye or Daniels. Interesting. No QB can be elite without play makers around them. 

 

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

How high were your scouts on Howell? Most scouts had him 1st or 2nd before his last year in college. Or you not going to believe those scouts now? But you are going to believe what they say about Maye or Daniels. Interesting. No QB can be elite without play makers around them. 

 

 

Are you suggesting a GM shouldn't listen to their scouts?