The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, FlyBigBeard said:

And I'm thinking the Bears got the worst of it. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Seeing they wanted 3 first round picks and now they sit at 9 and potentially miss out on a big time stud. 

They’ll get a stud, they’ll be getting the 5th best non-QB in the draft 

[method man]

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Chicago made this deal too early. Thought they wanted 3 1’s?  If Fields doesn’t improve in 23; they will be looking at qb in 24.  Chicago should’ve waited to closer to the draft before trading. They might of been able to get more. For giving up the #1 spot, seems like they could’ve gotten more.

I am getting to the conclusion that Poles is just not very good. He got fleeced by the Steelers as well, giving up a 2nd for Claypool.

 

NFL teams need to go the way of NBA teams and put folks with non scouting backgrounds in GM seats. The GM role is more administrative and the skill comes from the ability to play chess vs being a high level scout - Howie, for example, is an attorney/cap guy by trade who relies on his scouts and analytics guys to make the picks

[KillBill26]

1 hour ago, FlyBigBeard said:

And I'm thinking the Bears got the worst of it. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Seeing they wanted 3 first round picks and now they sit at 9 and potentially miss out on a big time stud. 

Bears also are holding a pretty nice lottery ticket for next year.  Carolina isn't very good and will have some growing pains.  Could be a top 5 pick next year.  

 

I like the deal for both sides.  

[88Comrade2000]

17 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

Bears also are holding a pretty nice lottery ticket for next year.  Carolina isn't very good and will have some growing pains.  Could be a top 5 pick next year.  

 

I like the deal for both sides.  

I think the Bears could’ve waited.  Closer to the draft, they probably could’ve gotten more; even if Carolina was the partner.

 

If I had the #1 pick, at minimum I would demand 3 1’s.

 

 

Carolina better hope the qb they draft is the one.

Edited March 11, 2023 by 88Comrade2000

[Koolblue13]

6 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Good yes.  Jerry Rice good? Sorry.  Nope. 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/115300-tim-brown-great-numbers-but#:~:text=Maybe even close to Jerry,the two seasons after that.

 

It's not really a far fetched thought at all.

 

He was 7th all time with Jay Schrader and Todd marinavich throwing to him his first 4 years instead of Joe ****ing Montana.

 

Rice had 3 HoFers his entire career, surrounded by talent. Tims best QB was probably Jeff George surrounded by nobody.

 

You can go ahead and totally dismiss this thought and pretend guys play in a vacuum, but Tim Brown was at the worst the second best WR in the league when he played and it was because of his supporting cast and that makes him a good comp for Terry, who might be that good.

[zCommander]

5 hours ago, Daniel.redskins said:

It's definitely Stroud. 

 

That is what I am thinking as well. I thought Richardson was not as accurate.

[KillBill26]

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think the Bears could’ve waited.  Closer to the draft, they probably could’ve gotten more; even if Carolina was the partner.

 

If I had the #1 pick, at minimum I would demand 3 1’s.

Possibly, who knows.  Chicago might have viewed Carolina as ideal due to how high next year's first could be compared to other bidders for the #1 pick.  Got 2 firsts and a solid wr for fields, so they pounced before Carolina could change their mind, and now have time to try to create a bidding war for #9 and trade back again.  What if throughout the draft process Carolina couldn't differentiate much between QB1-QB3, or they preferred a QB who they felt was being overlooked by other teams ( maybe Richardson), and the Cardinals would take significantly less to move up to 3 and they execute a deal with them.  Bears instantly lose leverage.

 

Compared to titans - rams trade for goff several years back:

 

titans got 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 thirds (one of the first and one of the thirds was for following draft). 

Bears received 2 firsts and 2 seconds (one of each is next year), and dj Moore. 

So basically comes down to dj Moore or 2 3rds to see if bears got as much value as titans did (not perfect comparison, I know).  A team like the bears who invested in fields, saw a stretch this year where he looked to turn the corner, now give him a legit #1 caliber wr (3 seasons of 90+ catches on resume, durable), I think getting Moore was at least equal, maybe better than 2 3rds. 

Bears did at least as well as titans in the goff trade imo.

 

Then consider the drop from 1st pick was to 15th in goff trade (compared to 9th for bears) and following year titans picked 5th overall (could be similar for Panthers 1st rounder next year).  If bears get some premium picks to move back to middle of first round (and like Conn said there will be a stud available at 9 to make the pick a nice carrot to dangle in a trade), in addition to the haul they got today, I don't think they would lose a second of sleep second guessing their approach with this.

 

I'd venture to guess their decision to pull the trigger early is because theyd love to trade back again, and will now seriously vet the guys on their short list to see if staying pat would be preferable. Now they know their jumping off point.

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Carolina better hope the qb they draft is the one.

Yup, it all comes down to how does their pick turn out.  If it's a hit, the compensation paled in comparison.   If it's a miss, they'll be mocked for the bust and seats will get hot.  Hope Carolina doesn't forget to draft cousins in the midrounds just in case it doesn't work out.

Edited March 11, 2023 by KillBill26

[mistertim]

34 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

That is what I am thinking as well. I thought Richardson was not as accurate.

 

If they went with Richardson they'd be banking purely on upside. He's ridiculously athletic and has a cannon. But you're right, his accuracy is poor overall and his decision making is also super inconsistent.

 

From what I read, at the combine he showed of his huge arm and his insane athleticism, but also reportedly struggled with accuracy in relatively simple passing drills.

 

I guess if you take him #1 overall you're hoping for best case scenario of a Josh Allen type sudden transformation in his passing accuracy, but IMO that's pretty unlikely. I think it's more likely that his ceiling will be a Lamar Jackson type of running QB, though Jackson was a better passer coming out than Richardson is.

Edited March 11, 2023 by mistertim

[FootballZombie]

Thanks to getting a deal done early both Carolina and Chi can form their other offseason actions around this newfound clarity. Especially huge for the Panthers, but now the Bears don't have to be hellbent on getting Fields a WR and get some flexibility as well. Value all around.

 

Pretty much takes the panthers outta the QB market. I don't know who would want to sign up to just have the #1 overall draft pick breathing down your neck.

[Est.1974]

4 hours ago, Conn said:

They’ll get a stud, they’ll be getting the 5th best non-QB in the draft 

Yep by time QBs go top 4 the draft will start for the rest at pick 5

[FrFan]

 

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

If they went with Richardson they'd be banking purely on upside. He's ridiculously athletic and has a cannon. But you're right, his accuracy is poor overall and his decision making is also super inconsistent.

 

From what I read, at the combine he showed of his huge arm and his insane athleticism, but also reportedly struggled with accuracy in relatively simple passing drills.

 

I guess if you take him #1 overall you're hoping for best case scenario of a Josh Allen type sudden transformation in his passing accuracy, but IMO that's pretty unlikely. I think it's more likely that his ceiling will be a Lamar Jackson type of running QB, though Jackson was a better passer coming out than Richardson is.

Richardson looked very accurate at the combine. It’s his film that is concerning there. 

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, method man said:

I am getting to the conclusion that Poles is just not very good. He got fleeced by the Steelers as well, giving up a 2nd for Claypool.

 

NFL teams need to go the way of NBA teams and put folks with non scouting backgrounds in GM seats. The GM role is more administrative and the skill comes from the ability to play chess vs being a high level scout - Howie, for example, is an attorney/cap guy by trade who relies on his scouts and analytics guys to make the picks

This is fascinating.

 

The Bears got 2 firsts and 2 seconds. Which could be a fairly high first next year. They also got an absolute legit #1 receiver in DJ Moore. The guy had three 1,100 yard seasons in a row until last year’s cluster****. 
 

If the Bears intended to use a 1 on a receiver this year, Moore is essentially a one. That’s three firsts as a value. And two seconds. What is there to criticize Poles for?

 

Beyond that, they know who they like and know going back to 9 means that guys they like will be there and they won’t be reaching at 1 for a guy. 
 

I don’t get the criticism.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I saw this gem this morning. I didn’t need to see it to know that I have zero interest in spending anywhere near $50M per guaranteed on Lamar but damn.  I’m sure the argument is that Lamar hasn’t had anyone to throw to but I’m not sure how much weight that carries considering the level of passer he is.

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

This is fascinating.

 

The Bears got 2 firsts and 2 seconds. Which could be a fairly high first next year. They also got an absolute legit #1 receiver in DJ Moore. The guy had three 1,100 yard seasons in a row until last year’s cluster****. 
 

If the Bears intended to use a 1 on a receiver this year, Moore is essentially a one. That’s three firsts as a value. And two seconds. What is there to criticize Poles for?

 

Beyond that, they know who they like and know going back to 9 means that guys they like will be there and they won’t be reaching at 1 for a guy. 
 

I don’t get the criticism.

Yeah I don't get it either. That's a GREAT trade for the Bears.

[FlyBigBeard]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

The Bears got 2 firsts and 2 seconds

They already had a 1st round this year so they got 1 extra first and and 2 seconds. Not 2 first round pics. I always see this and it always bothers me for no reason lol 🤣 tomato tomahto I guess 

[Command The 414]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

If they went with Richardson they'd be banking purely on upside. He's ridiculously athletic and has a cannon. 

I think they were already high on Stroud and had him penned as their guy but after seeing him live they had to move up.  But let’s say they go against all the odds and take Richardson #1 overall I tend to think as you and it being solely upside and this is where I could see them signing Wentz or bringing  back Sam Darnold for a year or 2 and let Anthony Richardson sit… I think taking AR overall #1 though is a very risky task… has there ever been a true #1 over all QB taken that at some point of his rookie season didn’t actually play and/or take over the helm? That’s why I’m saying it’s Stroud… if any weird thing happens other then him it could be Levis but I highly doubt that 

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, FlyBigBeard said:

They already had a 1st round this year so they got 1 extra first and and 2 seconds. Not 2 first round pics. I always see this and it always bothers me for no reason lol 🤣 tomato tomahto I guess 

They gave up a first and they got a first. This statement is the return. It’s not additional to what they have. That’s why you see it.

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's not really a far fetched thought at all.

Jerry Rice…

 

huge gap

 

#2

 

Even when they were on the same team and Rice was older, Rice was better.

 

 

Guys don’t play in a vacuum.  But there is no question Rice was better than Brown, and that would have been true regardless of situation. 
 

If you flipped their situations, rice is still better.

 

I’ll grant, Rice ended up in a perfect situation.  But he also made Montana and Young better, as they made him better.  
 

For my money, Rice is the best player in the history of the NFL.  And it’s not close.  I’m an era which was still predicated on mugging receivers, he was basically uncoverable.  

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Jerry Rice…

 

huge gap

 

#2

 

Even when they were on the same team and Rice was older, Rice was better.

 

 

Guys don’t play in a vacuum.  But there is no question Rice was better than Brown, and that would have been true regardless of situation. 
 

If you flipped their situations, rice is still better.

 

I’ll grant, Rice ended up in a perfect situation.  But he also made Montana and Young better, as they made him better.  
 

For my money, Rice is the best player in the history of the NFL.  And it’s not close.  I’m an era which was still predicated on mugging receivers, he was basically uncoverable.  

It's absurd to consider the situation a guy played in, when considering his legacy. Got it. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

The Bears got 2 firsts and 2 seconds. Which could be a fairly high first next year. They also got an absolute legit #1 receiver in DJ Moore. The guy had three 1,100 yard seasons in a row until last year’s cluster****. 

I agree with you.  
 

The way I look at it is the cost from moving from #9 to #1 was a 2023 2nd, a 2024 1st and 2nd and DJ Moore, which to me counts as a first.  
 

The Bears ended up with 4 additional assets (3 picks + Moore) in compensation for moving down 8 spots of value with their existing asset.  
 

I think it’s basically fair.  If you consider Moore a first round talent, which I do, then the cost is basically 2 firsts and 2 seconds.

 

The Skin’s cost for moving up from 6 to 2 was 2 firsts (2013 and 2014) and a second (2012).
 

So, I think it’s pretty similar in cost, and seems to be fair and in-line with other top 10 trades 

[samy316]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I saw this gem this morning. I didn’t need to see it to know that I have zero interest in spending anywhere near $50M per guaranteed on Lamar but damn.  I’m sure the argument is that Lamar hasn’t had anyone to throw to but I’m not sure how much weight that carries considering the level of passer he is.

 

One big difference here.  Kirk Cousins has had some pretty damn good WR’s to throw to since 2020 (Thielen & Jefferson), plus a top 5 TE in TJ Hockenson to throw to.  Whose Lamar had to throw the ball to?  Hollywood Brown??  Jackson’s ceiling is MUCH higher than Cousins’ ceiling.  Jackson has won the MVP award with LESS offensive talent, and in a tougher division/conference.  No question in my mind that Jackson deserves $50 Million if we’re going by resume.  The only reason he might not deserve that money is because of his injury history.

 

Give Lamar those Vikings WR’s, and he’d show everyone why he is a top flight QB.  Hell, give him the just released Thielen.  Thielen would literally be better than any receiver he’s played with.

Edited March 11, 2023 by samy316

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, samy316 said:

One big difference here.  Kirk Cousins has had some pretty damn good WR’s to throw to since 2020 (Thielen & Jefferson), plus a top 5 TE in TJ Hockenson to throw to.  Whose Lamar had to throw the ball to?  Hollywood Brown??  Jackson’s ceiling is MUCH higher than Cousins’ ceiling.  Jackson has won the MVP award with LESS offensive talent, and in a tougher division/conference.  No question in my mind that Jackson deserves $50 Million if we’re going by resume.  The only reason he might not deserve that money is because of his injury history.

 

Give Lamar those Vikings WR’s, and he’d show everyone why he is a top flight QB.  Hell, give him the just released Thielen.  Thielen would literally be better than any receiver he’s played with.

That’s going to be a no from me, dog.

 

I’m not saying he wouldn’t be better with better receivers, but he can’t place the ball like the top passers in the league with regularity - nor does he stand in the pocket and wait for those plays to happen.  Lamar is a playmaker, not a legit passer.
 

I guess it’s all moot though because with the salary he wants, pairing him with an elite receiver(s) is difficult.   

[CommDownMan]

Unless I'm looking in the wrong thread I'm surprised there isn't talk of Daniel jones and his 4 yr / 160 mill deal with the giants.   The QB deals are really getting a huge chunk of cap and it's really interesting if teams will adjust. 

 

Edit:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/daniel-jones-29041/

Edited March 12, 2023 by CommDownMan

[KDawg]

Just now, CommDownMan said:

Unless I'm looking in the wrong thread I'm surprised there isn't talk of Daniel jones and his 4 yr / 160 mill deal with the giants.   The QB deals are really getting a huge chunk of cap and it's really interesting if teams will adjust. 

There was talk.

 

It’s not actually a 160M deal. The key to looking at contracts is finding out how many years in that there is an “out” and guaranteed money.

 

Jones deal is essentially 2 years $82M but realistically it’s 3 years 82 mil. If they got out after two years it’s an 18M dead cap hit.

 

If they wait until after 3 the 4th year is only a $9M hit. 
 

So you could say it’s 3 years, 82M. Essentially $27.3M/year.

 

Year 2 cap hit is $45M. They can take that hit or they can extend and add more guaranteed cash to lessen that hit and push it out.