The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

The number 1 thing I want for this franchise is to pick a direction (at qb) and stick with it for like 3 seasons. Thats what the Giants did with Jones. Now, supposedly he's a hard worker which Haskins was not but we keep getting 30-35 year old qbs and that means we're going to have to rebuild sooner than later. That's what Sheehan wants though, so these trades. He was asking for Rodgers last week. My opinion seems to be cemented in low round guys and I do like them, but I am more about developing guys and letting them grow into decent guys. People are all about these beautiful passes and comebacks which are great but if we can get even Campbell type years from our QB then we're in the playoffs. 

 

To me I want to develop a QB if:

 

A.  Has at least a medium level ceiling

B.  High intangibles -- including work ethic.

 

I was out on Haskins on both fronts.  Haskins was really talented but I count accuracy in that mix.  And the reason why I trust coaches in the context of they can see a lot in practice because I felt the same as a layman watching camp.  You can see accuracy -- timing -- arm strength very easily.  So I can just imagine seeing camp AND practice everyday.

 

So for that reason, i am jazzed that they are jazzed about Howell.  As Craig Hoffman said on his last podcast with Logan and Keim, they lucked out that in the year when Dan is likely selling and they in turn probably won't have the money to spend big on QB -- happens to be a good year not to spend money on QB and ride with Howell and go cheap.  

13 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Thanks and what was his final official measurement? 6 foot 1, or 6 foot .5? DO we know? I don't think we need to go too short, and I imagine it would only typically apply to interior lineman right? Since the nature of throwing at angles would typically render tackle height irrelevant (since its the edge's that are probably blocking any view at that point). 

 

I believe he's a hair over 6 feet.   Yeah I'd guess interior, too.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

You don't need an elite QB to win. You need a QB who is consistently good and is capable of playing elite for stretches. That's how Flacco and Eli won rings. They were never elite. Never in MVP consideration. But they were year in year out good and both had stretches of ridiculously hot play in the playoffs(Eli twice). 

 

If all you do is chase guys like Mahomes you're gonna be in the desert forever. Guys like that are once in a generation unicorns.

I think Flacco and Eli's are far more rare. Look at the last 30 years for instance:

1992: HOF

1993: HOF

1994: HOF

1995: HOF

1996: HOF

1997: HOF

1998 HOF

1999: HOF Season from Warner

2000: Dilfer

2001: HOF

2002: Brad Johnson

2003: HOF

2004: HOF

2005: HOF

2006: HOF

2007: Eli

2008: HOF

2009: HOF

2010: HOF

2011: Eli

2012: Flacco

2013: HOF

2014: HOF

2015: HOF

2016: HOF

2017: Foles

2018: HOF

2019: HOF

2020: HOF

2021: Stafford

 

I've actually gone through and done this over the years just checking out final four QB's, and generally 3 to 3.5 out of the 4 conference championship QB's year over year tend to be HOF level guys. Personally, I view it as far harder to do this without a QB with HOF potential than to do it with one with HOF potential. Mahomes is a rarity but at any given time, the league typically has 15-20% of its starters with HOF potential depending upon how things play out. In my view you just need to keep swinging for the fences, trying to have literally everything else perfect (coaching, front office, ownership, surrounding players) and only QB, crappy to middling is just harder, in my view, than getting that QB especially since things like ownership, are simply beyond your control, period. It's very telling that when you look at the last 30 years, the only seasons where a QB who had zero HOF potential or talent won a super bowl were 2000, 2002, 2012 and 2017 with Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles. It's simply too damn rare to rely upon. I'd rather keep swinging for the fences at QB. The last 5 years alone have had Watson, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence and maybe pending upon how things play out, another guy or two. They are there, generally 1, sometimes 2 a draft. We just need to get one. I think Howell has that ceiling btw, I think more likely he's either 10th-15th, or a bust, but unlike any other QB in that draft other than maybe Willis (ridiculous tools) and apparently Purdy, who everyone missed on, he always had the potential to be a genuinely good to great QB. We'll see how it plays out, but betting on Howell while continuing to take swings is the way to go, period, stop gaps won't cut it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That's funny, my wife would've killed me if I'd tried lol, but I had no interest in trying. I did not and do not want my kid growing up supporting a team like ours has been since '93, no magic, no memories, just misery and pain, and you can't look up to the org, or ownership or anything because generally, they've been evil? Can't do it. Plus my wife laughs at the lack of local connection too which is true (born and raised in the bay, my brother lived in virginia after he was born for four years right before I was born in '74, and that's it, that's the connection). 

 

My boy will be Niners or Raiders and I'm fine with it, though I prefer the Niners because they're better run and its where I grew up even though I HATED them growing up (actually HATED both, no wins vs the Niners save 1986 and 1983 from 1981-1999, and the Raiders killed us in XVIII). 

 

Fortunately it started with my kids during the 2012 RG3 era, that helped.  I used to live in DC and can get back there in a 2 hours and change flight and I like going back there which i do give or take 1-2 a year.  Different from you coming from the west coast. 

 

I also like going to road games which my kids enjoy.  No way i'd be flying around the country to watch name that random team the kids pick ti root for instead -- so I really worked it.  Knock on wood, it's worked so far, even as the enter their rebellious teenager years.    Will see.

 

The tough part is all the sleaze associated with Dan.  Hopefully that nightmare is ending.  And yeah I do think it changes everything to replace an incompetent version of Darth Vadar running this organization to someone else.  

 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

15 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I think Flacco and Eli's are far more rare. Look at the last 30 years for instance:

1992: HOF

1993: HOF

1994: HOF

1995: HOF

1996: HOF

1997: HOF

1998 HOF

1999: HOF Season from Warner

2000: Dilfer

2001: HOF

2002: Brad Johnson

2003: HOF

2004: HOF

2005: HOF

2006: HOF

2007: Eli

2008: HOF

2009: HOF

2010: HOF

2011: Eli

2012: Flacco

2013: HOF

2014: HOF

2015: HOF

2016: HOF

2017: Foles

2018: HOF

2019: HOF

2020: HOF

2021: Stafford

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're too lax on some of your HOF seasons. While those guys do end up developing into future HOF-ers, seasons like say Big Ben in 2005, first three Super Bowls Brady, and 2013 Wilson were absolutely not HOF-ers at that time. Also 2015 Broncos version of Manning was absolutely abysmal.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Warhead36

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, skinsfan66 said:

I agree Howell will be the QB if he wins the job with design they want to run. and the backs ups need to be at least capable of running that style too. Wentz did not fit or Taylor did not fit. Cannot see Dalton or that type being a fit with Howell if they build around him. Dalton is Wentz with a better line in front of him. 

The back up QB doesn't need to play like the starter, tater. He just needs to be able to step in. Fitz and Wentz are a lot more similar than Sneakers was.

 

Back up, especially a vet like Dalton, can step in and run a basic offense.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

You're too lax on some of your HOF seasons. While those guys do end up developing into future HOF-ers, seasons like say Big Ben in 2005, first three Super Bowls Brady, and 2013 Wilson were absolutely not HOF-ers at that time. Also 2015 Broncos version of Manning was absolutely abysmal.

I'm not referring to the seasons, I'm referring to the QB who won that season. Was he a HOF or not. I totally agree Manning in '15 was straight trash. But when you have more than 80% of Super Bowls won by HOF QB over 30 years, it means something, when the QB's making the Final Fours are either HOF, or damn close to it, year in and year out, you're looking at a league that basically bends towards elite QB's and rebuff's good and great teams lacking them. 

 

Doesn't mean there aren't exceptions. The Niners the last decade have been an exception, the Ravens have been an exception for more than 20 years, but in both cases, the teams are well known for great stability and leadership at the Front Office, Ownership and Coaching level, and for having built fabulous rosters around the lesser QB's. These aren't teams lead by all world worst owner candidates like Snyder or usually inept front offices like ours (Cerrato, Casserly, Allen) or hit and miss rosters like ours. To get around the elite QB you have to have EVERYTHING else covered, and that's rare as hell, in my view, more rare, and harder, than unearthing the HOF to mega elite QB (typically 8-12 of those a decade, typically 1-2 teams that have everything but QB covered per decade). 

Edited January 18, 2023 by The Consigliere

[The Consigliere]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Fortunately it started with my kids during the 2012 RG3 era, that helped.  I used to live in DC and can get back there in a 2 hours and change flight and I like going back there which i do give or take 1-2 a year.  Different from you coming from the west coast. 

 

I also like going to road games which my kids enjoy.  No way i'd be flying around the country to watch name that random team the kids pick ti root for instead -- so I really worked it.  Knock on wood, it's worked so far, even as the enter their rebellious teenager years.    Will see.

 

The tough part is all the sleaze associated with Dan.  Hopefully that nightmare is ending.  And yeah I do think it changes everything to replace an incompetent version of Darth Vadar running this organization to someone else.  

 

 

 

I think the last time I was in a stadium for a game was an RGIII start at the Niners new stadium in Santa Clara back in '14. I've only ever seen them play in Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, Candlestick, and the new stadium in Santa Clara. That's it. My kid was born in '16, so by the time he was aware of what football was, it was '19 and we were more or less imploding lol, but I was never going to indoctrinate him anyway. Probably more open to a laissez-faire appraoch because that's what my dad was like, he was a Niner fan from the fifties and sixties, but moved to D.C. from '68-'74, so he took up the redskins as a 2nd team which made it easy, but his preference was always the Niners. 

[DJHJR86]

Howell as QB1 and Minshew as QB2 is my preferred choice for next season.

[The Consigliere]

That would be awesome. Minshew's the essence of a reliable backup w/starter qualities. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

What about Mariota? If we want to mix in more RPO with Howell then Mariota can run it and maybe win a game or two if the starter gets hurt. Mariota doesn't seem like the type of QB who can really run the scout team though.

 

I never hear much about it, but players say quality scout teamers help a lot. Are there QB's well known for being great at that?

Edited January 18, 2023 by Always A Commander Never A Captain

[Chump Bailey]

On 2/6/2022 at 7:22 AM, Chump Bailey said:

I usually ignore Notre Dame QB's but I like what I saw from Coan in the Shrine Bowl. He made some nice throws. Same with Purdy.

 

 

Shameless attention _ post but I liked Brock Purdy too coming out.  A stretch? You betcha

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

You're too lax on some of your HOF seasons. While those guys do end up developing into future HOF-ers, seasons like say Big Ben in 2005, first three Super Bowls Brady, and 2013 Wilson were absolutely not HOF-ers at that time. Also 2015 Broncos version of Manning was absolutely abysmal.

 

I think the point is that you're way more likely to win a SB with a true top notch franchise QB than you are with a "decent" one. Though in the case of Eli, Flacco, and Foles they all went on absolute tears during the postseasons where they won it all. So even if they weren't elite QBs overall they were playing like elite QBs during the stretch where they won the SB.

 

So bottom line is to win it all you generally need a true elite QB or you need elite QB play during the postseason. A mediocre QB who plays like a mediocre QB during the playoffs isn't going to cut it in almost any circumstance.

 

For the most part that leaves a couple of options:

1) Keep trying for that elite franchise guy

2) Hope that your good but not great QB will play like an elite franchise guy during the postseason

[Koolblue13]

51 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That would be awesome. Minshew's the essence of a reliable backup w/starter qualities. 

 

1 hour ago, DJHJR86 said:

Howell as QB1 and Minshew as QB2 is my preferred choice for next season.

Guessing y'all didn't watch him singlehandedly rack up loses for the Eagles this year. He is terrible. He's mustached Heini and I'd rather have the Heini Holey one.

[Warhead36]

38 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

 

 

So bottom line is to win it all you generally need a true elite QB or you need elite QB play during the postseason.

That's....pretty much exactly what I said...

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

Guessing y'all didn't watch him singlehandedly rack up loses for the Eagles this year. He is terrible. He's mustached Heini and I'd rather have the Heini Holey one.

Yeah I don't get the Minshew hype. He is pretty bad. He had like that one good game last year and had that cool moment with his dad but he's not actually a good QB.

[Est.1974]

I hate the idea of a mediocre / washed up vet back up QB. I would rather we drafted Richardson to pair with Howell and let the two of them sling it out on rookie contracts. If Howell flunks in 2023 then Richardson has a year under his belt in terms of progression.

 

[Dan T.]

Here's a harmless thought experiment.  You can have any quarterback you want, right now, as the Commanders quarterback.  No compensation to the other team needed. We abosrb the player's existing contract. 

 

Who ya got? Mahomes? Josh Allen? Lamar? Joe Burrow? Gardner Minshew? Why?  This gets to the type of QB you see as ideal to lead a team.

[CapsSkins]

10 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

Here's a harmless thought experiment.  You can have any quarterback you want, right now, as the Commanders quarterback.  No compensation to the other team needed. We abosrb the player's existing contract. 

 

Who ya got? Mahomes? Josh Allen? Lamar? Joe Burrow? Gardner Minshew? Why?  This gets to the type of QB you see as ideal to lead a team.

Mahomes. But alas, we can’t just go get a guy like that.

[NoCalMike]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

I think the point is that you're way more likely to win a SB with a true top notch franchise QB than you are with a "decent" one. Though in the case of Eli, Flacco, and Foles they all went on absolute tears during the postseasons where they won it all. So even if they weren't elite QBs overall they were playing like elite QBs during the stretch where they won the SB.

 

So bottom line is to win it all you generally need a true elite QB or you need elite QB play during the postseason. A mediocre QB who plays like a mediocre QB during the playoffs isn't going to cut it in almost any circumstance.

 

For the most part that leaves a couple of options:

1) Keep trying for that elite franchise guy

2) Hope that your good but not great QB will play like an elite franchise guy during the postseason

 

Not to mention the goal should always be sustained success.  With a HOF or at least say HOF-worthy QB, the chances are you now have a window of about 10-12 (or in the modern era possibly even more) to win championships.  That means the team around the QB can possibly be re-tooled 2-3 times during the career of that QB and the most important position on the team remains solidified all through it.  It also increases the chances of a quicker turn around after a down season.   Most of the teams that won a championship with a less than HOF-worthy QB were one and done teams that fell back to the pack immediately.  Eli Manning is the exception, but he also went on these uncharacteristic tears during those post seasons that he never could replicate over the course of a an entire season.   

[Jumbo]

39 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

Here's a harmless thought experiment.  You can have any quarterback you want, right now, as the Commanders quarterback.  No compensation to the other team needed. We abosrb the player's existing contract. 

 

Who ya got? Mahomes? Josh Allen? Lamar? Joe Burrow? Gardner Minshew? Why?  This gets to the type of QB you see as ideal to lead a team.

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

What about Mariota? If we want to mix in more RPO with Howell then Mariota can run it and maybe win a game or two if the starter gets hurt. Mariota doesn't seem like the type of QB who can really run the scout team though.

 

I never hear much about it, but players say quality scout teamers help a lot. Are there QB's well known for being great at that?

 

I'd like Mariota in that context of being a backup who can go with an RPO system, and is likely cheap, though not sure about the odd ending to his season when he left the team.  Typically people have said he's a super nice guy and good teammate. 

 

 

[KDawg]

Mariota walked out on his team. No. Give me [REDACTED] before him.

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I hate the idea of a mediocre / washed up vet back up QB. I would rather we drafted Richardson to pair with Howell and let the two of them sling it out on rookie contracts. If Howell flunks in 2023 then Richardson has a year under his belt in terms of progression.

 

 

Intrigued by Richardson, boom-bust prospect but I get the sense that Keim doesn't think they are thinking QB early in this draft.

 

As for later in the draft, I'll keep cheerleading for

 

 

 

[Jumbo]

i still like brisset but also wish  bridgewater or geno smith were options and i'd take mariota over minschew if the price is ok

 

i am not among those who think minschew is some kind of junk and still think he's notably better than th was in ability to play the position

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Mariota walked out on his team. No. Give me [REDACTED] before him.

 

I think the Heinicke Hive have finally gotten to you.   I thought it might happen after all the posts with people selling his moxie, it was bound to wear some of us down.   

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

Yikes!