The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CommDownMan]

34 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I didn't mean to make it sound like I think Heinicke is, could be, or that anyone rational thinks he could, be a legit starter. I also didn't mean to make it sound like you or anyone else was talking about him being a starter or getting starter money.

 

I thought that was very obvious.

 

If I had said "were arguing about back up QB salaries mattering a tiny bit" would it have mattered?

 

In a 987 page thread of all things Commander QBs, I think sillier things have been argued about.  

 

I think as much as Heinicke is frustrating as the starting guy week to week, I think just how bad some backups are can get lost something and the need to bash TH gets out of hand.  

 

Ignoring depth and the cost to maintain it (whether the team losses it by trading draft picks or ignoring value signings) is something that has really plagued this team over the years, although they have done better recently.  We are starting Bostic because what appears to be little effort to find better options at LB.  Maybe it's not sexy, but to me having a decent fill-in when the starter goes down is important.  Saying he sucks and/or should have no market isn't likely IMO, so I backed it up with some comparable samples.  

 

There can be an argument that Howell would have played instead and we'd have a better idea where we were for 2023.  So I won't say anything like Heinicke saved the season, but having him on the current contract can be seen as valuable.  

 

The more people blindly love TH, the more intense the hate seems to get.  I find it rather annoying, but I suppose that's on me to deal with.

6 minutes ago, mh86 said:

I think 5-6 mil is reasonable for him if we were to sign him. He has more value to us than most other teams (imo). I would put other teams value in the 3-4 range. I could also see him staying here for 3.5-4.5 mil if he tested the waters with other teams and felt more comfortable here in this system with the team.

 

This is fair, I do think one of his biggest strengths here is knowing this system.  His leverage is likely smaller as a result of other teams likely not as interested, which could make the deal lower than backups with comparable numbers.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, CommDownMan said:

 

In a 987 page thread of all things Commander QBs, I think sillier things have been argued about.  

This is the truest post in this thread.

[mistertim]

8 minutes ago, mh86 said:

I think 5-6 mil is reasonable for him if we were to sign him. He has more value to us than most other teams (imo). I would put other teams value in the 3-4 range. I could also see him staying here for 3.5-4.5 mil if he tested the waters with other teams and felt more comfortable here in this system with the team.

 

I'm still not quite sure what Heinicke has done to deserve a 3-4x increase in his current backup salary. He's playing ok in his current role in the system, but it's not like he's lighting anyone up, and his limitations as a passer are still very apparent, which would probably put most teams off a bit when it comes to paying him.

[Koolblue13]

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

D line and running game clearly the key dance for their winning streak, I think most recognize this team is winning with a physical-trench dominated approach.

 

Oh but it’s so much more than that, but I agree with what you say here. 
 

I go a step further and believe the “physical trench dominated” approach will enable team to compete with Niners. 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The pessimism about the 49ers game I think is driven by 3 things.

 

A. 49ers defense even better and more physical than our defense.  They have the #1 defense in the league.

 

B.  they got the better O line

 

C.  They got the better QB 

 

Washington is rising and have a great deal to prove, so I get where you’re coming from when comparing Niners.  What you post I don’t believe are absolutes just yet. I’ll give you the Oline, but intrigued to see how the defense responds and I don’t think Purdy is better than Heineke. 
 

The Niners have played one the softer schedules in the NFL and in a horrible division. No doubt, I love their roster, but Washington isn’t far off— we’ll see how they matchup. Maybe I’m totally wrong. 
 

Let’s see how Purdy responds to the Washington front four! 
 

To the SB we go! The defense will probably give up 40 plus points to KC in the SB, similar to the Niners this season. 

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

49 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Oh but it’s so much more than that, but I agree with what you say here. 
 

I go a step further and believe the “physical trench dominated” approach will enable team to compete with Niners. 

 

 

Washington is rising and have a great deal to prove, so I get where you’re coming from when comparing Niners.  What you post I don’t believe are absolutes just yet. I’ll give you the Oline, but intrigued to see how the defense responds and I don’t think Purdy is better than Heineke. 
 

The Niners have played one the softer schedules in the NFL and in a horrible division. No doubt, I love their roster, but Washington isn’t far off— we’ll see how they matchup. Maybe I’m totally wrong. 
 

Let’s see how Purdy responds to the Washington front four! 
 

To the SB we go! The defense will probably give up 40 plus points to KC in the SB, similar to the Niners this season. 

[zCommander]

3 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

 

If it wasn't so ineptness of the Seahawks last night on both side of the line the Niners actually looked beatable to me. It would be a low scoring game though dominated by the defenses. The team that has the ball longer will win. That is our bread and butter.

 

You can now start sniffing other stronger stuff instead lol

[mistertim]

Do we seriously have posters talking about the super bowl?

 

We can barely manage to put up 20 points against **** defenses and we're talking super bowl?

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by mistertim

[skinsmania123]

19 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Do we seriously have posters talking about the super bowl?

 

We can barely manage to put up 20 points against **** defenses and we're talking super bowl?

 

With Heinike it is just such a crap shoot. There are just too many of those ill-advised, horrible floaty throws. How many more four-leaf clovers can he pull out of his ass? His deficiencies will not be hidden against the niners defense.  I think he would be better if he ran sometimes, but he just won't.  Nope he just throws ill-advised floaters. 

[wit33]

32 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Do we seriously have posters talking about the super bowl?

 

We can barely manage to put up 20 points against **** defenses and we're talking super bowl?

 

NFC is weak.

 

If you punch your NFC playoff ticket you have a chance. 

 

SB here we come! 

Edited December 16, 2022 by wit33

[757SeanTaylor21]

We got the defense to stop the 9ers for majority of the game...we don't have the offense to beat their defense at all. They gonna press blitz and sit in inside 10 15 yards and Taylor gonna struggle....its not gonna be good.

[Warhead36]

I think we matchup with the Vikings and could potentially beat them in a playoff game. We had them beat last time. I know it'll be different playing in Minnesota, but Heinicke doesn't seem phased playing on the road and has multiple come from behind victories as a road underdog in his career(Vegas last year, Philly and Indy this year). 

 

After that though I think we hit our ceiling. 

[NoCalMike]

The 49ers didn't look the same with Purdy at QB.  In fact their passing offense very much resembled ours for a lot of the game, complete with Purdy throwing a few passes right into defender's hands that just happened to drop them.  One even looked like a likely pick 6.   That said, the 49ers O-line gives Purdy all day to throw so while he may look inexperienced and frantic for a couple of quarters, he will still hit Kittle with a nice pass downfield when the guy gets open.   Jimmy G is better than Heinicke but even he is a borderline QB1. He is good enough to be a bridge, but I'd never pay Jimmy G the kind of money you have to commit to a multiple year franchise QB.  He also runs a WCO behind a pretty good O-line.  

 

Now looking to our match up against the 49ers, the O-line is the problem.  I don't care what QB we have back there, they are going to be rushed, pressured, hit, & sacked a lot.  The question is what do you think has a better chance of combatting a pass rush like that, Heinicke's mobility that he sort of uses sometimes, but not nearly as much as he used to and/or that we hoped he'd still be....or Wentz's arm that can flick the ball over the top of a defense with a banged up secondary that has been shown they can be thrown on by teams with lesser skill position players than we have?

 

The answer right now is likely neither, unfortunately because the O-line has been that bad.   

 

However, what concerns me about Heinicke are the throws he is (or also actually isn't) making when he does have good protection.  I also am worried that a lot of his shorter passes, the way he throws the ball so softly, are going to be broken up a lot against that defense.

 

I think it could be a game where both defenses are dominating, but our defense ends up gassed by the 3rd quarter and gives up a score or two and while the score might not show a dominant win for the 49ers, what it did show is that the Commanders never really did anything to threaten in the game.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think we matchup with the Vikings and could potentially beat them in a playoff game. We had them beat last time. I know it'll be different playing in Minnesota, but Heinicke doesn't seem phased playing on the road and has multiple come from behind victories as a road underdog in his career(Vegas last year, Philly and Indy this year). 

 

After that though I think we hit our ceiling. 

The Vikings D is horrendous, but Heinicke mustered very little against it.  Unless we have another ref taking out Vikes defenders, I’m inclined to bet against us.

 

They would actually be the ideal opponent for Wentz though.  They generate zero pass rush.

Edited December 16, 2022 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[HigSkin]

This article is about the surprise successes of no name Brock Purdy and 32 year old, backup Geno Smith but you could easily insert Heinicke's name in and get the same narrative - evidence as seen by this thread.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/16/sports/football/brock-purdy-geno-smith.html

 

The N.F.L. spits out compelling narratives with a drum machine’s perfected pace. Every week in the short, high-stakes season, there seems to be something new for fans to chew on, obsess over and sink their teeth into. Sometimes it’s awful and ugly. Sometimes it’s uplifting and wrapped in promise.

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

Do we seriously have posters talking about the super bowl?

 

 

 

We have posters whose contributions I've used in behavioral science courses for 15 years. To be fair, my own posting here has put me in front of review boards a number of times, as well as answering questions from several federal agencies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HigSkin]

6 hours ago, CommDownMan said:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/taylor-heinicke-17249/cash-earnings/

Over 7 seasons Heinicke has about 7.6 mill earnings (1.1mill per).  2-3 years/5-7mill per would probably feel like a big payday (especially to non-football players).  I think it's just a relative "big payday" IMO.  

 

I don't believe the $19.7 mill per they show on Sportrac, but I do think $5-7mill/year is something he can reasonably negotiate for a deal.

 

 

 

FWIW - 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/10/sports/football/nfl-backup-qbs.html

 

In Today’s N.F.L., Good Backups Pay Off (and Are Getting Paid)

 

As their value to their teams rises, so too do backups’ salaries. Huntley, who went undrafted out of Utah in 2020, is playing for the Ravens on a 1-year deal for $895,000. He earned it by replacing an injured Jackson for four games last season. (Jackson, who has a sprained posterior cruciate ligament, is expected to return this year, but Huntley will likely start Sunday against the Steelers.)

 

 

Purdy is in the first year of a four-year rookie contract worth $3.7 million, or about $934,000 annually.

 

Both are near the bottom of the pay scale for backups, a market that Chris Cabott, the agent for Rush and Heinicke, said is growing. “As more of these quarterbacks are getting opportunities, and the salary cap continues to grow, we are close, maybe months away from an eight-figure salary for some backups,” Cabott said.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

48 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The Vikings D is horrendous, but Heinicke mustered very little against it.  Unless we have another ref taking out Vikes defenders, I’m inclined to bet against us.

 

They would actually be the ideal opponent for Wentz though.  They generate zero pass rush.

But that's the point about bad defenses - they run into things like refs because they're not watching. What other DB has had that happen to them? He's a bum and deserved to run into the ref. 

[kingdaddy]

3 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Oh but it’s so much more than that, but I agree with what you say here. 
 

I go a step further and believe the “physical trench dominated” approach will enable team to compete with Niners. 

 

 

Washington is rising and have a great deal to prove, so I get where you’re coming from when comparing Niners.  What you post I don’t believe are absolutes just yet. I’ll give you the Oline, but intrigued to see how the defense responds and I don’t think Purdy is better than Heineke. 
 

The Niners have played one the softer schedules in the NFL and in a horrible division. No doubt, I love their roster, but Washington isn’t far off— we’ll see how they matchup. Maybe I’m totally wrong. 
 

Let’s see how Purdy responds to the Washington front four! 
 

To the SB we go! The defense will probably give up 40 plus points to KC in the SB, similar to the Niners this season. 

I think our bye week is gonna be huge down the stretch here....come back energized and we should destroy the NYG this week and then get on a plane with a real good test to see where we are against the Niners. I don't think this group is gonna be content just to make the playoffs, they have more to prove and have beaten the best team in the conference. Hell, they manhandled them. 

Beat the NYG this week and it's Heinicke vs Purdy.....LOL. 

[FootballZombie]

16 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

But that's the point about bad defenses - they run into things like refs because they're not watching. What other DB has had that happen to them? He's a bum and deserved to run into the ref. 

 

That's a... viewpoint I guess.

 

Gonna have to add look both ways to check for ref cross traffic before making a play on the ball to the DB list of responsibilities, even when said ref actively tracks and squares up like he's Ray Lewis or somethin'.

 

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

Do we seriously have posters talking about the super bowl?

 

We can barely manage to put up 20 points against **** defenses and we're talking super bowl?

 

 

 

I hope the players and coaches in that locker room are not thinking like you! 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I hope the players and coaches in that locker room are not thinking like you! 

 

I'd much rather them be realistic about their shortcomings and what they need to improve on than have delusions of grandeur. They need football improvements, not motivational speaking.

[wit33]

 

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd much rather them be realistic about their shortcomings and what they need to improve on than have delusions of grandeur. They need football improvements, not motivational speaking.

 

Seize the moment.

 

Be honest, did you feel playoffs were likely to start the year? 

 

I get you though man, no way do I think Washington is the best team in the NFC, but certainly believe football is ultimate team sport and on any given Sunday there’s a chance (especially when the NFC doesn’t Mahomes or Allen). Punch your ticket and I do t think it’s crazy to think Washington has a chance against all NFC playoff opponents.
 

Niners game will be another measuring stick, like Philly was. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd much rather them be realistic about their shortcomings and what they need to improve on than have delusions of grandeur. They need football improvements, not motivational speaking.

 

They are aware of the little shortcomings they have and still winning! We beat the Giants on Sunday they will be in the driver's seat and realistically in the playoffs and possibly beyond. Being SB bound is all the motivation they need.