The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's two different points though.

 

A.  Do I think most teams have a bias to predispose to like or dislike a player and that influences what they see?  Nope.  That's bad scouting.  Why have a bias before you begin?    Do I think some fans do it sometimes?  Sure.   I do think fanboy owners like Dan Snyder do it this way.  For example he said all college season (according to Keim) anyone who would listen to him that Haskins was the best player in college.  So his mind was made up before the draft process happened.  He was an emotional not anayltical type and it was one of a zillion reasons why he was a bad owner.

 

B.  Do front offices have predispositions of what to look for because they value some skills over others?  Sure.  But I don't see that as negative. I want my GM to evaluate ALL players based on what they value more.

 

There is no manual for Peters to turn to.  There is no find a franchise QB for dummies book where you just work off the check list and bam you found your guy.  He's going to have his own subjective check list.  That's fine.

Lawrence is my "Haskins" example. I was basically on auto pilot with that guy pretty early, and have been left utterly stunned. Is he really just average? Just Mediocre? Was it because he got really dinged up last year? Was he screwed up by having his rookie year botched by Pervin Liar (probably my favorite Jim Rome regloss of a guy's name ever)? I don't know, but I definitely think I was on confirmation bias autopilot eventually on Lawrence. 100%. I wasn't even paying attention to risk and critiques by '20-'21 with him. 

[FootballZombie]

Just now, rockluc said:

Don’t give up hope. Maybe he’ll hit puberty over the summer. 😞

 

I'm pretty sure Laron Landry went thru like puberty like 4 times.

 

I'm just saying its possible

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Jayden at -500 to be drafted 2nd overall currently.

You realize this means absolutely nothing right? It just means more money is coming in on Daniels than the others. 

21 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

He has to keep saying it for the people in the back

 

 

Text from tweet:

 

Reporter: “There’s speculation that you may not want to go to Washington. Do you want to just squash that?”

Jayden Daniels: “I’m blessed to go wherever I’m called. Whoever calls my phone, (when the) commissioner gets up and says my name, I’ll be blessed, and they’re going to get my all.”

Reporter (later): “To clarify, would you be OK being drafted by Washington?”

JD: “Yeah. 100 percent.”

During the lengthy interview, Daniels repeatedly said he’s not sure what to expect tomorrow night and wants to go as high as possible.

Man. His shoulders are so narrow. Worries the hell out of me. But I will be cheering my ass off for the 8 or 9 games he survives taking NFL hits. 

[BayouBrave86]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

You realize this means absolutely nothing right? It just means more money is coming in on Daniels than the others. 

 yes, odds mean absolutely nothing in all aspects of life. 

[clskinsfan]

35 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Not only that, but when people look at game tape, whether they picked a favorite or not, they come in with bias.

That is not how you watch tape. You simply rate what you see. And log plays. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Bifflog]

7 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

At this point I don't care which QB they select. There are enough positives and red flags for all 3 reasonble options that it's jsut up to the team what kind of offence they want to run and who they think will be fit that offence.

 

 

This is where I am at, over the last week or so I watched the full Jayden all throws and runs youtube video, half of Maye's, and a quarter of JJ's.  I damn near liked everything I saw, and I feel like any of them could work, and I look forward to watching the plan come together.

[The Consigliere]

32 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Jayden at -500 to be drafted 2nd overall currently. 

LSU will be leading DC to greatness again. Dylan Crews/Jayden Daniels pain train choooo choooo

Crews is pretty sweet, though Skenes looks like a grand slam to this point, so lucky to land that pick in '23 rather than '24. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

18 minutes ago, shemp nixon said:

Who are you and what have you done with Warhead 36?

[mhd24]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm in the Drake camp.  Hoping GMAP pulls a surprise and takes Maye.  If not, at least Maye isn't in the NFC and the Vikings & Giants (especially) don't get him.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I am incredibly worried about Daniels' frame. Throw out all of the other issues and noise up to this point, but his body cannot sustain a long NFL career. And he's almost 24, not like he can grow into that frame more. Definitely concerning and my gut feel on Daniels is he ends up being a bust. But I will still root and cheer for him but will continue to hope and pray we either draft Maye or trade down.

[RandyHolt]

I think I will feel better if we have him wear his shoulder pads at the draft.

[The Consigliere]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You realize this means absolutely nothing right? It just means more money is coming in on Daniels than the others. 

Man. His shoulders are so narrow. Worries the hell out of me. But I will be cheering my ass off for the 8 or 9 games he survives taking NFL hits. 

The $$$ means something, it's just how important the something is that's open to question.William Hill has him as a heavier favorite with implied odds as 98%, meanwhile as mentioned earlier, they have Maye as implied odds of 18%. Doesn't make a lot of sense....trying to hedge is the best answer here. They're weighting things via the press, and trying to reduce risk that sharps lay huge bets if they put Maye where he should be which is +3000 to +4500 if they're giving you 1.14 on Daniels, but they're not, they have him at +450 instead this morning, which means basically:

 

They don't trust the narrative enough to risk $$$ on it at all and sharps killing them if they raise the line. You can come much closer to trusting it if Maye climbs into the thousdans by thursday afternoon, especially +2500 or more payout. Otherwise, in Vegas' view, this thing is much closer to 80/20 than it is 98/2. 

 

[Ghost of]

14 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm pretty sure Laron Landry went thru like puberty like 4 times.

 

I'm just saying its possible

Remarkable how he and David Boston chose bodybuilding over the NFL. 

[ntotoro]

44 minutes ago, Hooper said:

QB not a RB is hilarious.

 

Best passer in the draft according to some if not most. 

 

Man, these biases and narratives.

 

Biases against QB's who run a lot... ? The last one we had didn't work out so well, so more than a few people are punch drunk still. I'd take Caleb or Drake as a passer over JD, still.

[seantaylor=god]

3 minutes ago, rockluc said:

Don’t give up hope. Maybe he’ll hit puberty over the summer. 😞

Yeah I don’t want to beat a dead horse but he’s so narrow. Even with the weight he’s gained and his best efforts in the weight room he’s just a really thin dude.

 

Nothing he can do about it, and I’m not sure if there is a correlation between frame and injuries,etc. but it’s the biggest issue with him. 

 

In the cold as balls video with Kevin Hart, Hart has broader shoulders than him and Hart like like 5’5 lol.

 

But the game is changing and it seems like QBs are getting smaller. There is less of an emphasis on finding the 6’5, 250 pound guy anymore. It seems like the point guard type is working out pretty well.

 

Also, while weighing less makes it easier for you to be dragged down and tackled, there is some evidence that smaller, more flexible players actually get less injuries (ACL in particular). And of course, you can’t hit what you can’t catch.

 

if Daniels is this pick we need to put a huge emphasis in the next few years of building a rock solid oline and lots of weapons, of particular, guys who can get wide open (great route runners). Daniels is extremely acurate, so less emphasis on big guys with largely catch radius and more on route running and YAC, IMO.

 

Conversely, if we go with Maye I want guys that can play better off schedule with big catch radius.

[Jumbo]

My final resting place on the pick is this:

 

I won't be able to just pretend that my both my hopes and concerns, after the fairly arduous journey in forming and continuously challenging my choices, will just totally dissipate and be replaced with nothing but enthusiasm if we go with JD over Maye.

 

But because of the context this time around any angst I have will be greatly ameliorated by who's making the decision. Though they are quite different in pros and cons, I do think both have very high potential. I like them both, in general. I've detailed enough why I go Maye, but completely get why JD excited so many.

 

I'm not kidding when I say I give greater credibility regarding football wisdom to some of our best posters here than many "pros" in the  radio/tv/social media pundit horde. 

 

It's true that no one knows for sure who will be a dream and who will be a dud in the end.

 

Even so, I certainly don't think our best posters (or myself) are likely to be bringing more competent analysis and evaluating to the table than the current think tank making the call this time.

 

So I can rationally and intelligently concede that their best efforts > my best efforts. It's not that hard. 

 

So if it's JD, I will be buoyed by knowing the above and I will look forward to watching what should be a very exciting and successful player. I will still worry somewhat,  but not nearly as much with who's in charge now.

 

If it's Maye, then it means they are on the same wavelength as I am and I will break my arm patting myself on my back 😁 for now. 

 

Whoever it is, they still need to win the games.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

my gut feel on Daniels is he ends up being a bust.

My gut says we will never know what he could have become. Because he wont physically survive the NFL game. But if he can stay healthy. I think he could be amazing. 

[mac8887]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

My gut says we will never know what he could have become. Because he wont physically survive the NFL game. But if he can stay healthy. I think he could be amazing. 

My gut says JJ McCarthy will win a superbowl 

[The Consigliere]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is not how you watch tape. You simply rate what you see. And log plays. 

What you see sometimes lies to you and you to yourself....it's inherently biased. You bring yourself into what you're watching and logging. 

[Jumbo]

9 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

 

One of my fave gifs I started using here way back. Classic scifi, book and film. 👍

[The Consigliere]

10 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Can't believe I still haven't seen all that movie, I need to watch it for Halloween Month next year. 

[Idaho fan]

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

My gut says JJ McCarthy will win a superbowl 

My gut says Im a fool for eating McDonalds for lunch and expecting to feel good after.  Oh and if Daniels can stay healthy he will be the steal of the draft.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

My gut says we will never know what he could have become. Because he wont physically survive the NFL game. But if he can stay healthy. I think he could be amazing. 

 

This is why I think he'll be a bust, I should clarify.

 

IF Daniels stays healthy and has a long-career as a result, I think he'll be fantastic.

Bust* in the same way RG3 is viewed as a bust, but if RG3 had remained healthy and continued on his rookie year trajectory, we'd be in a very different position today.

[e16bball]

I think the real dividing line between the two sides of this Daniels/Maye debate is in how you weigh 2023 versus prior years.

 

I see a lot of scouting comments (and metrics) that are focused entirely on 2023. Where the most recent data points seem to be overwhelmingly the most important ones. Traditionally, this gets cast aside by "well, that's who he is now" or "so you're saying it's a bad thing that he improved?" From this perspective, Daniels is far and away the better selection, as he was staggeringly good for the last 10 games of his college career. Maye, on the other hand, had 2-3 pretty dicey games to end his career.

 

But where things become tricky for me is that I believe the following statement is undeniably true: If you watched the first 85-90% of Maye's career (his first 25 games) and you watched the first 80-85% of Daniels's career (his first 45 games), there is absolutely no chance that you would have rated Daniels the better player.

 

Considering the overall picture of their respective college careers, it's a very narrow sliver in which Daniels actually exceeds Maye. I have some concern that the draft community as a whole is putting a ton of stock in the last things we've seen -- and forgetting a lot of what came before. Just as one example, this article was previously posted, and it cites serious concerns about Maye and his comparatively poor accuracy. But the stats they're looking at in putting together the big multi-colored graph about completions and on-target rate by distance is based solely on "final college season."

 

But what happens when you take into account "career" rather than just "2023"? All of a sudden, Maye is the career leader among the draft QBs in completion percentage over expectation -- and Jayden finds himself bringing up the rear. So does that go out the window because Jayden was exceptional in his final year? That's the question that I think is dividing everyone more than anything else.