The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DiscoBob]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I'm COMPLETELY OUT on this regime if they draft the QB based on what the OC wants.

 

Everyone knows you gotta base key decisions like this on who your kids went to high school with.... duh 😜

 

 

Edited April 20 by DiscoBob

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[jg77]

20 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

How many times we made it that simple in game day threads and not pull it off?

 

Big reason Ravens get high seeds and nothing for them is because most defense can't fully contain Lamar like you're saying here.

 

At some point they run into a defense in the playoffs that can.

 

These running QBs are an illusion to being successful, we are close to all QBs being dangerously mobile in some way, and defenses are adjusting..see how quick defenses adjusted to read option.  It helps but this is still a passing league.

 

I would love the opportunity of a high seed and an NFC Championship appearance.

 

It's not like we're winning games right now. Y'all make me laugh with this rhetoric.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, jg77 said:

 

I would love the opportunity of a high seed and an NFC Championship appearance.

 

It's not like we're winning games right now. Y'all make me laugh with this rhetoric.

 

That's like best case scenario, though...not the odds on favorite.

[Rufus T Firefly]

42 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

How many times we made it that simple in game day threads and not pull it off?

 

Big reason Ravens get high seeds and nothing for them is because most defense can't fully contain Lamar like you're saying here.

 

At some point they run into a defense in the playoffs that can.

 

These running QBs are an illusion to being successful, we are close to all QBs being dangerously mobile in some way, and defenses are adjusting..see how quick defenses adjusted to read option.  It helps but this is still a passing league.

Running QBs are great for winning games, making the playoffs (if they stay healthy) 

 

For winning Super Bowls, they haven't done it yet and it's easy to see why that is.

 

In choosing a QB I almost literally don't care how well they run it. Mobility is great, but the ability to be a big part of the running offense doesn't interest me. If it's a big study guy like Josh Allen, then it's nice to know the have that in their arsenal, but it isn't going to register not he reasons I'd draft a QB.  

Edited April 20 by Rufus T Firefly

[Dah-Dee]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

People often underrate QBs on these things, as a cheap out in case the QB fails or falls.  But it's a meaningless hedge, no one in the world actually believes Marvin Harrison is better and more valuable than the top QBs, or that he should be picked in front of them.  And the truth is that superstar QBs are the best and most valuable football players in every level of the sport, regardless of position.  Harrison isn't even close to as good a player as Williams or Maye are.

 

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever.

 

But please do carry on. 😋

Edited April 20 by Dah-Dee

[TurningTheCorner]

Jayden is a bit unique in that I don’t think he’s only well regarded because of his running ability. He’s legitimately good from the pocket too, quick processor, and point guard distributor of the ball. That was not fields or mariotta. Really we haven’t seen many prospects like him. 

 

The only thing that gives me pause is I could see Maye having better longevity. 

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Dah-Dee]

15 minutes ago, TurningTheCorner said:

The only thing that gives me pause is I could see Maye having better longevity. 

 

I love watching Daniels but I think it's a virtual lock that Maye will have a longer NFL career. Daniels could certainly end up being a starter for longer, but after watching film of Daniels over and over again, I'm shocked that he hasn't ever sustained a serious injury. His reckless/stubborn running style, combined with that frame, and the way he takes hits, seems a perfect formula for an abbreviated NFL career.

 

In particular I was struck, while watching the 'all-sacks' clips for both Maye and Daniels, by what seems like a very significant difference in the way they took those hits. For the most part, sacks on Maye involved a slo-mo wrestling/pulling to the ground, with Maye often ending up on top of / next to the tackler. Daniels, on the other hand, took a ton of full-body hits that ended with him flat on his back, laid out under the tackler - just much more violent collisions than those involving Maye.  

 

To compound things, when Maye would actually get wrapped up, or when it seemed obvious he was going down, he'd curl in to protect himself and the ball. Daniels, on the other hand, seemed to always be trying to escape tackles even when it was obvious he was going down, resulting in some really weird and stretched out body positions, opening him up to additional and possibly dangerously-awkward hits.

 

So the possibility of serious injury for Daniels does more than give me pause, it completely freaks me out.

Edited April 20 by Dah-Dee

[Est.1974]

43 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

 

I don’t think that’s surprising at all, JJ has been getting props for quite a while now.

[Going Commando]

49 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever.

 

But please do carry on. 😋

 

Why ignore the overall rankings?  They tell us how he views the game and values players.  And at the very least, if your system of valuing players puts the best and most valuable players in the class at 5, 6, and 23, then your system is bad.

Edited April 20 by Going Commando

[NYSkins21]

Touching on Top Golf, I don’t think it has been brought up but I think it’s a genius move.

 

Not only do get to see how these players personalities in a less stuffy environment but these rookies become free agents in 4-5 years.

 

The players get to meet the owner, GM, coaching staff and see how the organization operates outside the box. Different than other organizations. They can sell themselves and the organization.

 

Leave a lasting impression for when they’re looking for a new contract and build a reputation for other free agents to come.

Edited April 20 by NYSkins21

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Why would I want to hear from the team if he had a good time?  Be like being dragged to a family event am not into -- and someone asks my family, not me, if I had a good time.

 

Keim has referenced several times he knows some people super close with Daniels.   I'd want to hear it from them.  Not a team source.  Not that I care though.  To me that was the smallest point among the one i mentioned he talked about.

Well, translate “had a good time” to “did well in that setting” and I think that would be really helpful to know from the team.

 

And if you listen carefully to the way he said it, he did not say “I heard from people close to Daniels that he had a good time.”  Which would be a report.  Also, it’s what they would say regardless of the truth. 
 

What struck me was the dismissiveness he addressed it with.  It was a toss off “of course he had a good time, why wouldn’t he” type of response.   
 

I have no idea if there is anything there or not.  And frankly I don’t care.  
 

But I think being extremely dismissive to the point he told Bram “it’s not worth the conversation” so think takes it a little far.  
 

Not the tweets from the agent.  I agree that doesn’t mean anything.  
 

But it’s clear Daniels’ camp isn’t sure he’s going #2.  The way they have been acting for the past week sortof shows that. 
 

And he STILL might be the pick. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever.

 

But please do carry on. 😋

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

This I agree with, we’ll just take who we think is the best QB prospect.

Agree and got zero doubt thats what we do.

 

Harris whole thing is about a GM centric model.  Quinn more or less admitted in a interview that he’s learned from Peters how to do QB evaluations 

[Going Commando]

Here's Jeff Legworld's top 100 from last year: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/story/_/id/36184202/2023-nfl-draft-jeff-legwold-ranking-top-100-prospects

 

Stroud was ranked 7th and Young was 8th, and Stroud has already completely torpedoed the case that any of the top six guys are close to him.  He's systematically underrating QB prospects, and that speaks to a flaw in the system of big boarding draft prospects that is common.  QBs can be ranked against each other, but they can't accurately be valued against the field of players from all positions because their draft value for teams hinges entirely upon these two questions:

 

1 - Do I need a QB? 

If no, then QBs might as well not even be in my top 100.  At most, you'd be fishing for third stringers on Day 3. 

 

But if the answer is yes, then:

 

2 - Am I comfortable with making this QB prospect my long term plan at the position? 

If the answer is a confident yes, then no draft pick is too early for them.  They should be at the top of your draft board in every scenario. 

 

If the answer is "eh, maybe," then you have to find the price point where the potential value overtakes the risk for you.  This seems to be the late first or second round for most QB prospects who have a more checkered profile in most years.  Teams have proven unwilling to take more speculative QB prospects over elite prospects at other positions, but are willing to do so after that cream of elite position players is largely gone.

 

I think draftniks might as well exclude QB from their big boards and create a second QB only board where they rank and tier the prospects like this:

 

Tier 1: QBs you're confident in drafting to be a long term starter.

Tier 2: QBs that you can see having long term starting potential but have enough flags to make you hesitate.

Tier 3: QBs that are a lottery ticket.

Tier 4: QBs that are end of roster bodies.

 

For me, the only Tier 1 QBs this year are Williams and Maye.  The Tier 2 QBs are Daniels, McCarthy, and Penix.  The Tier 3 QBs are Nix, Rattler, Pratt, and Milton.

 

The big disconnect generating the Maye vs Daniels debate is whether or not Maye and Daniels are truly Tier 1 prospects.  Some think both are.  Some think Maye is not.  Some think Daniels is not. 

 

I think a better system of Big Boarding would be to put breaks in your board where you think it's appropriate to draft QBs from each tier.  Tier 1 should be the top of your board, without exception.  Tier 2 should be where you think the elite position player player cutoff begins.  You eliminate the problem of systematically undervaluing QBs this way, and then the remaining issues are just about accurately judging who should be a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB, and accurately determining where that elite position prospect cutoff begins.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Another Raider tie. Clark is tight with Pierce.

 

Ive read multiple times Daniels is a super nice guy, low ego, very coachable.

 

Ditto Maye. But Daniels’ mom is a different story 

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

As we get closer I am more and more gunshy on Daniels.

 

Dont get me wrong. I think his ceiling is absolute superstardom. Like through the roof superstardom. 
 

But a player’s best ability is avail. And while Daniels showed no signs of injury the last two seasons… I worry about the hits he takes from a NFL perspective. 
 

I understand that is conjecture. I understand there is a burden of proof to statements like that and I have none. It’s just a gut based on watching some of the hits he takes, his small frame and our history with a very similar prospect.

 

I understand that RG3’s career trajectory doesn’t apply to Daniels. I truly do. But it’s hard to shake it.

 

I’ll be fine if it’s Daniels. Really. I think he can be great. But I’d be the most disappointed with him in this crop. 
 

At this point I’d prefer McCarthy. He has a similar size issues but he protects himself better. I don’t think he has the same sky high ceiling but I think he has a great ceiling.

 

I’m a coin toss between JJ and Drake.

 

51/49 Drake I think. 
 

But I am souring more and more on the idea of Daniels. Im sorry, JD fans. I really do see his potential and agree with you all that he could be absolutely special. I just can’t fight this feeling anymooooorrrrreeeeeeeeeee…

 

My gut has been JJ for awhile but man; I can’t shake Maye’s physical traits. And when you’re at 2 you draft traits and experience. So it’s hard to say JJ outright. But I’d be excited for him.

[HTTSkins]

On 4/19/2024 at 5:53 PM, Llevron said:

The board is going down if it’s anyone other than Maye lol

 

The drama is the fun at this point 

I don’t see Daniels being anything other than RG3 redux and honestly I’d rather have McCarthy than JD

[Warhead36]

Its gonna be painful watching Maye lead a Patriot or Giant renaissance after we pass on him for a 150 lb beanpole who can't make NFL throws.

[DogofWar1]

2 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

Regardless of the fact Legwold has been attending combines for almost 40 years and doing these rankings for almost 30, and is on the HOF selection panel and the smaller seniors selection committee, and therefore has an educated opinion I'd hope we all accord at least some respect/value, I wasn't interested in the absolute rankings but rather the QB rankings relative to each other and his related comments, which is why I listed only QBs and not Harrison/Nabers/whoever.

 

But please do carry on. 😋

 

He hasn't gotten Jacoby in, he's immediately suspect.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

As we get closer I am more and more gunshy on Daniels.

 

Dont get me wrong. I think his ceiling is absolute superstardom. Like through the roof superstardom. 
 

But a player’s best ability is avail. And while Daniels showed no signs of injury the last two seasons… I worry about the hits he takes from a NFL perspective. 
 

I understand that is conjecture. I understand there is a burden of proof to statements like that and I have none. It’s just a gut based on watching some of the hits he takes, his small frame and our history with a very similar prospect.

 

I understand that RG3’s career trajectory doesn’t apply to Daniels. I truly do. But it’s hard to shake it.

 

I’ll be fine if it’s Daniels. Really. I think he can be great. But I’d be the most disappointed with him in this crop. 
 

At this point I’d prefer McCarthy. He has a similar size issues but he protects himself better. I don’t think he has the same sky high ceiling but I think he has a great ceiling.

 

I’m a coin toss between JJ and Drake.

 

51/49 Drake I think. 
 

But I am souring more and more on the idea of Daniels. Im sorry, JD fans. I really do see his potential and agree with you all that he could be absolutely special. I just can’t fight this feeling anymooooorrrrreeeeeeeeeee…

 

My gut has been JJ for awhile but man; I can’t shake Maye’s physical traits. And when you’re at 2 you draft traits and experience. So it’s hard to say JJ outright. But I’d be excited for him.

 

Similar take except for the McCarthy part but I wouldnt hate it. 
 

Like you I feel that Daniels will be a great player if he can stay healthy but I agree its a BIG if.

 

I am not with the Daniels is a bum posts on this thread. But I definitely am concerned about durability.

 

Edited April 20 by Skinsinparadise

[HoggLife]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Similar take except for the McCarthy part but I wouldnt hate it. 
 

Like you I feel that Daniels will be a great player if he can stay healthy but I agree its a BIG if.

 

I am not with the Daniels is a bum posts on this thread. But I definitely am concerned about durability.

 

If durability wasnts an issue would you still be Maye>Daniels?

[Skinsinparadise]