The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Jumbo]

56 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

After spending much of the early evening catching up on all the exciting and novel commentary on this thread, I'm reminded of a lecture my high school Latin teacher once gave on the difference and similarities in meaning and common usage between ad nauseam and ad infinitum. 😉

 In reference to this phenomena typical to sports message boards, I've long used the ad infinitum term as most fitting since I feel like some of us are damned to wander these threads for eternity. 👹

[skinny21]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Not trying to put you on the spot, but have you found any argument you've read them quoted on (any Daniels supporter) that is compelling? I haven't. Thats my problem. I'm ready for evidence that can make me lean back and take notice, data that can make me pause and reconsider. I can and I will. I'm not cement. But I need to see it. And I'm not. Tell me why it should be Daniels? What is it about being overrage, a bad frame, struggled for so many years before putting it all together, being awful with p2s across 5 years, not throwing with anticipation/tight windows, finally and only putting it together once, and only when he was overrage and everything was legit perfect? What's the selling point there, what am I missing. I could be missing something. Maybe he was always doing these things, and as a proportion of the production, his market share etc, he was always killing it, just at ASU (he was good there) maybe he was thrwoing into tight windows with aiyuk but never needed to with Nabers. I need to be pointed into a direction of evidence that is compelling and nobody anywhere is doing that. They're just pretending the litany of warning signs either don't exist, or aren't as important as flash plays, improvement and a huge final overage season. 

 

Personally, I don't find those arguments remotely compelling or convincing. Do they simply not look at QB's who failed and note the similarities? Do they not care? Do they have processing data from the S2, proprietary data,his workouts and in person scouting that is mind blowing but they can't say? Maybe they do, in which case I'll sit down, but what people have pointed to in these "Daniels is #2" articles, quotes, and arguments, is largely all horse ---- in my view. Its possible there is real, genuine, great info, great data, great tape, great S2 score info, great all manner of things that would assuage a lot of my concerns, but nobody has mentioned a single piece of any of it, ever. Not once. The closest is someone who threw up some clips and pointed them out as some examples of anticipation throws and going through progressions, but we all know its easy to just collect some examples, its another thing for it to be a consistent trait, or a random outlier moment.

 

That's what bugs me. We know they have more information, so they may have skeletons on Maye, or data on daniels that alleviates my concerns but wont be shared till down the line, but historically speaking, when I've seen things like this happen, the way it turned out is that these guys turned into freaking Mitch Trubisky and Zach Wilson far more often than they turned into Josh Allen (like a 15-1 to 20-1 rate). 

 

I don't think I'm smarter, I don't, but all the arguments I've seen, are collectively largely idiotic and utterly unconvincing. If he is the pick, I pray they have other ones that actually are compelling (or info on Maye that is horrifying) because otherwise, they really are idiots. 

Frankly, I’m pretty much with you.  The difficulty I have with truly landing smack dab in alignment with you is (my) lack of information, and the fact that many people who should (at least in theory) have a lot more information than I tout him.  

 

As an example, one of my concerns was his lack (or at least paucity) of middle field throws.  But then I hear Jay Gruden saying the offense didn’t have a lot of middle field throws, and that those are some of the easiest throws to make, so he wasn’t worried about it.  Is Jay right?  I have no clue, but it makes some sense anyway.

 

If I’m taking a Devil’s Advocate stance on the p2s ratio and the low number of throws after breaking the pocket, a few bits of information and some theories/questions play into for me.  With fewer routes to the middle of the field, was this to give Daniels more space to navigate when he ran?  Was he coached to run (as Herm coached him to at ASU)?  Was his low number of pressures in part because defenses didn’t want to risk attacking him (ie played to keep him in the pocket more often)?  Do defenses playing contain effect p2s ratios?  Did his team practice broken plays?  What does the tape say about his improvement on the ps2 ratio this year?  Purely better oline play?  Was a 2nd year in the system a factor?  Did the VR thingy help his play/processing speed?  Just so many things I don’t know.

 

Regarding throwing with anticipation, was this a timing offense (my understanding is no)?  Did the offense face mostly zone (not wanting to turn their backs on Daniels) and that, coupled with talented pass catchers reduced the need to throw with anticipation?  How hard is it to improve in this area?  Doesn’t seem the “experts” are too concerned about this facet, though I can’t recall hearing why exactly.

 

To me, there are 4 major selling points with Daniels - his running, his accuracy at all levels, his ability to go through progressions (this is mainly based on others takes), and his marked improvement in certain areas.  I might throw in his openness to working with the VR and changing his work habits - he seems very willing to be coached and to put in the work.  The big question, for me, is how well can our FO gauge his processing ability.  If they believe he has a big leg up on this facet, I suppose I can see how they might choose to pick him.

 

Personally, the red flags and question marks with Daniels, vs the number of things Maye has going for him (and small number of flags) make Maye the fairly easy choice for me. 

 

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He had two superstar WRs

 

This might have also had a little bit to do with it:

 

"In 2023, he ranked fifth in FBS with an 88 percent catchable rate and 15th with a 76 percent on-target rate. He also led all FBS quarterbacks in completion rate, on-target rate, catchable rate, QB rating and IQR on throws 15-plus yards downfield (minimum 50 attempts)."

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-ranking-7-most-accurate-qbs-in-this-years-class/

[Llevron]

1 minute ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

This might have also had a little bit to do with it:

 

"In 2023, he ranked fifth in FBS with an 88 percent catchable rate and 15th with a 76 percent on-target rate. He also led all FBS quarterbacks in completion rate, on-target rate, catchable rate, QB rating and IQR on throws 15-plus yards downfield (minimum 50 attempts)."

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-ranking-7-most-accurate-qbs-in-this-years-class/

Naw that’s only cause his first read was literally open every play 

[FootballZombie]

Its gonna be a party in the draft room this year. A whos-who at the top showing up.

 

QBs Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels among 13 prospects attending 2024 NFL Draft

https://www.nfl.com/news/qbs-caleb-williams-drake-maye-jayden-daniels-among-13-prospects-attending-2024-nfl-draft

 

 

[illone]

1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I know. That’s why I had to add the JD fans into the mix.

 

How dare you lump me in with "them".

 

[Dah-Dee]

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Naw that’s only cause his first read was literally open every play 

 

FWIW, 33rd Team did a follow-up article that's pretty interesting, especially if you like to geek out with the maths and stuffs:

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/what-does-accuracy-tell-us-about-the-2024-quarterback-draft-class/

 

What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2024 Quarterback Draft Class?

 

For this exercise, we’ll look at completion percentage and on-target rate, as charted by Sports Info Solutions, for each depth of the field. 

 

SIS defines on-target percentage as “a pass that hits the receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is completed.” It’s not a perfect one-for-one stand-in for accuracy, but it paints a picture of ball placement we can use to set up a prospect’s profile.

 

Here’s a look at the 2024 class with their depth rates, completion rates and on-target rates compared to each other.

 

 

The first thing to note is how different the college and NFL games are from a depth standpoint. Only the quarterbacks listed above threw passes between 1-10 air yards on more than 40 percent of their attempts. 

 

Meanwhile, NFL quarterbacks live in this world. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2023, only three were below 40 percent. The average for NFL quarterbacks last season was 47.7 percent.

 

[continues]

 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

7 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I hope JJ absolutely nails his visit with us.

I have no doubt that he will. Everything I've seen and read says he's a dynamite interview, charismatic, respectful and smart.

[ILikeBilly2]

1 hour ago, skinsmania123 said:

Two and he will be the third.  Joe Montana is one. 

Jim Plunkett won it, beating out Joey T.  Plunkett won two Super Bowls beating Theismann in one of them.  Joe must really hate running into Plunkett at a party.  

[skinsmania123]

2 minutes ago, ILikeBilly2 said:

Jim Plunkett won it, beating out Joey T.  Plunkett won two Super Bowls beating Theismann in one of them.  Joe must really hate running into Plunkett at a party.  

I know. I was screwing around with one of the posters.  

[Conn]

 

[mistertim]

Ouch. That's pretty rough for Penix.

[CommanderInTheRye]

Keim's latest, says we're bringing in Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy next week and all are possibilities at 2. We still have a definite leaning, but no final decision as of today.

 

Also said, we're meeting with Penix next week and that's a possible contingency in case we get an offer we can't refuse and trade out of the second pick.

 

Highly unlikely, we trade back because no guarantees Penix will be there if we do.

 

Said he thinks Penix might not get past Atlanta at 8 (as the longterm replacement for Cousins), but we're covering all our bases anyway.

 

The big news is he has an exclusive interview with DQ and they talk about what he wants in a qb.

 

Haven't gotten to that part yet. Interview begins at 18:45.

 

EDIT: 

 

DQ on most important qb quality-- ability to process post snap reads quickly.

 

DQ on what he likes about Drake--

Likes his ability to create and get outside on the run if his protection breaks down.

 

DQ on Jayden--

DQ really comes alive when he starts talking about Jayden's ability to process things post snap. You can feel his excitement increase as he talks about him. 

 

I don't know guys, this may really mean something then again it might not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

---

Edited April 12 by CommanderInTheRye

[Ghost of]

Every time I see a chart like that it looks good for McCarthy. It's funny to see so many dismiss based on an eye test for games they ain't even watch but advanced stats show a well balanced performance in areas that would matter most. Combine with physical talent and mental makeup...

[SoCalSkins]

2 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Fun fact: The QB that runs the most is most likely to take a big hit.

 

Fun fact 2: QBs can get crushed standing like a statue in the pocket, just as hard.

That’s simply not true from a physics standpoint. If you are running full speed and a defender is running at full speed in the opposite direction and you collide, you experience a much harder hit than you would if you are standing still. You absolutely can get crushed in the pocket but your example is incorrect. 
 

 

Edited April 12 by SoCalSkins

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, skinsmania123 said:

I just watched what you posted, and I see stuff like that every Sunday with QB's. The bottom line is can they get up and continue?  I know Andrew Luck couldn't after a few years. 

 

And I hope that is not Daniel's.  I just don't see him as RG3 except from a dual-threat perspective. That one video, the guy was barreling down on his head and got called for it. If that **** happens every week, find me any QB in the NFL that could take hit after hit like that and not be horribly injured.  

 

Who do you think they should take if not him?  

Most NFL QB's are not going to jump in the air, big mistake they get down slide and nobody bounces off of him. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

31 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

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Keim's latest, says we're bringing in Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy next week and all are possibilities at 2. We still have a definite leaning, but no final decision as of today.

 

Also said, we're meeting with Penix next week and that's a possible contingency in case we get an offer we can't refuse and trade out of the second pick.

 

Highly unlikely, we trade back because no guarantees Penix will be there if we do.

 

Said he thinks Penix might not get past Atlanta at 8 (as the longterm replacement for Cousins), but we're covering all our bases anyway.

 

The big news is he has an exclusive interview with DQ and they talk about what he wants in a qb.

 

Haven't gotten to that part yet. Interview begins at 18:45.

 

EDIT: 

 

DQ on most important qb quality-- ability to process post snap reads quickly.

 

DQ on what he likes about Drake--

Likes his ability to create and get outside on the run if his protection breaks down.

 

DQ on Jayden--

DQ really comes alive when he starts talking about Jayden's ability to process things post snap. You can feel his excitement increase as he talks about him. 

 

I don't know guys, this may really mean something then again it might not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I originally posted this as an edit in the post above, but I don't want anyone to miss it because it's definitely germane to this discussion.

 

DQ on most important qb quality-- ability to process post snap reads quickly.

 

DQ on what he likes about Drake--

 

Likes his ability to create and get outside on the run if his protection breaks down.

 

DQ on Jayden--

 

DQ said Jayden processes post snap very quickly.

 

Personal Impression: I think Quinn really comes alive when he starts talking about Jayden's ability to process things post snap. You can feel his excitement increase as he talks about him. 

 

I don't know guys, this may really mean something then again it might not, but it sure felt to me like Quinn was showing his cards.

 

See for yourself tge interview begins around 18 min 45 seconds in.

 

 

Edited April 12 by CommanderInTheRye

[Mooka]

2 hours ago, bh32 said:

College stats don't mean squat in the NFL

 

I was looking at the Pressure/Sack/Whatever stats and then noticed Bo Nix was sacked 5 times in 470 attempts behind Oregon's O-Line and Penix Jr was sacked 11 times in 555 attempts at Washington. 

 

That's a sack every 94 pass attempts for Nix.

 

How do you analyze Williams/Daniels/Maye's numbers when compared to that? 

 

Have to watch actually watch the tape to get a sense of how they handle pressure and avoid sacks. The numbers aren't going to tell you squat. 

[Wyvern]

I was having a little free time one evening, and decided I could add a little more material for ES fans to discuss while debating the plusses and minuses of Daniels vs Maye.

 

I'm just curious how folks will react to the media interviews they gave after their Pro-Day.  After all, one of them could be the face of the franchise and likely would be trotted out after each game to face the media.

 

I'll grant that the venues and format interviews are in somewhat different -- but after all, the media probably wanted to interview some of LSU's receivers as well as Daniels.  But I suspect you'll see some other differences between the two ... I'm curious what people think/feel from the pressers and if it might be a factor in the Washington coaching staff and front office's evaluation process.

 

Here's the YouTube of Drake Maye's presser after his pro-day:

 

 

Here's the YouTube of Jayden Daniels' presser after his pro-day:

 

 

 

I have some observations -- but will hold off on my comments, because I am trying not to influence anyone's initial reactions to them performing something that both will have to do as part of their jobs.   Mainly, I just wanted add a little more material for folks to "chew on.". Please let me know if you want me to include J.J. McCarthy's interview -- he held a longer one at the combine which would be a good comparison as he gives some insight about himself.

 

 

(If this was already posted somewhere in this massively-long thread please accept my apologies.)

 

 

Edited April 12 by Wyvern

[FootballZombie]

36 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

That’s simply not true from a physics standpoint. If you are running full speed and a defender is running at full speed in the opposite direction and you collide, you experience a much harder hit than you would if you are standing still. You absolutely can get crushed in the pocket but your example is incorrect. 

 

Everybody knows two opposing forces just cancel each other out.

It'll be fiiiiine.

jk

 

 

22 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

I originally posted this as an edit in the post above, but I don't want anyone to miss it because it's definitely germane to this discussion.

 

Keim has said before that he knew the Washington org was high on Jayden's ability to process. Now we can put Quinn's name specifically to that idea, but there could be others around the building as well. I wouldn't be surprised, his ability to read always came off the tape for me, especially so since he marries his mechanics w/ it. Make it way easier for the layman to follow.

 

Adding on to your line of thinking, Keim has also hit on the idea that college players don't face the same level of defensive schemes b/c of the ocean of team diversity. He has specifically focused on the idea that Maye did not have to face a lot of defenses where he had to deal w/ teams adjusting their D post snap, while that was a constant for teams Jayden played.

 

 

Interesting indeed.

Edited April 12 by FootballZombie

[SoCalSkins]

13 minutes ago, Wyvern said:

I was having a little free time one evening, and decided I could add a little more material for ES fans to discuss while debating the plusses and minuses of Daniels vs Maye.

 

I'm just curious how folks will react to the media interviews they gave after their Pro-Day.  After all, one of them could be the face of the franchise and likely would be trotted out after each game to face the media.

 

I'll grant that the venues and format interviews are in somewhat different -- but after all, the media probably wanted to interview some of LSU's receivers as well as Daniels.  But I suspect you'll see some other differences between the two ... I'm curious what people think/feel from the pressers and if it might be a factor in the Washington coaching staff and front office's evaluation process.

 

Here's the YouTube of Drake Maye's presser after his pro-day:

 

 

Here's the YouTube of Jayden Daniels' presser after his pro-day:

 

 

 

I have some observations -- but will hold off on my comments, because I am trying not to influence anyone's initial reactions to them performing something that both will have to do as part of their jobs.   Mainly, I just wanted add a little more material for folks to "chew on.". 

 

(If this was already posted somewhere in this massively-long thread please accept my apologies.)

Jayden is talking about what the teams will do for him and invest in him on and off the field and who will believe in him. It is a very entitled attitude. It’s not about coming in and working and proving himself to make the team better, it’s about what he gets out of it and what they will do for him.
 

Drake is talking about the glory days of the Pats and Washington and he specifically mentions multiple people by name and about helping getting them back there. Jayden does not mention people by name. They both are a little nervous. Maye does a shoulder shrug too often when he talks but comes across better in my opinion. Jayden is much more self centered and entitled. 
 

Another note regarding interviews. Drake and Caleb stayed at the combine and gave interviews to the NFLN broadcast. Jayden left early. Maybe he missed mom, was otherwise homesick or needed milk. Not sure. 

[mistertim]

Wow those two pressers were very different, and Maye and Daniels have super different personalities it seems. Maye is clearly more extroverted and gregarious; more of a natural speaker, etc. Daniels seems more reserved and almost nervous, but came across well in his answers overall.

 

Neither of those are all that surprising though, as we've heard before that Daniels is more of an introvert and tends to lead by example while Maye is more of an extrovert and vocal leader.

 

I'm very curious as to how much of a role that plays in the decision making process for GMAP and DQ. From what I can tell so far, I think they both seem to lean more towards the vocal type of leader, but who knows

[Wyvern]

Thanks.  I'll hold off on my views a bit longer -- but I'll say that your feedback was really helpful for me as you bring up things I didn't see in my initial review.

[Llevron]

I’m glad we are striving to be as non biased as possible lmao 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

That’s simply not true from a physics standpoint. If you are running full speed and a defender is running at full speed in the opposite direction and you collide, you experience a much harder hit than you would if you are standing still. You absolutely can get crushed in the pocket but your example is incorrect. 
 

 

I’d be interested to see the percentage of major injuries to QBs that happen behind the line of scrimmage/in the pocket vs beyond it. The recent ones that I can think of off the top of my head have mostly happened in the former: purdy UCL, herbert finger, rodgers achilles, kirk achilles, burrow wrist. Three of those guys were untouched. The one outside the pocket was richardson