The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CommanderInTheRye]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Thanks @CommanderInTheRye, you managed to get @JamesMadisonSkinsback into his true obsession: trading back. And now we all have to bear the brunt of a ton of completely nonsensical trade scenario posts. I will not forgive you for this.    

 

Guilty as charged. 😀

 

 

Honestly, I am amazed and humbled by @JamesMadisonSkins creativity and enthusiasm in this pursuit.

 

I wasn't expecting an answer or in this case a series of answers with this level of precision and detail.

 

Quite impressed, actually.

 

Edited April 8 by CommanderInTheRye

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Hey, I've got to weasel my way in ... the trade value chart is my passion after all.

[BurgundyBooger]

10 hours ago, Conn said:

So Hoge didn’t like Rodgers, Mahomes, or Herbert? He doesn’t like toolsy guys who can break the rules, makes sense if he’s consistent in that regard. Probably didn’t like Josh Allen or even Can Newton then? Assume he didn’t like Anthony Richardson either. 

 

Collectively, those seven average less than 1 Super Bowl title between them, so maybe he's on to something.

Edited April 8 by BurgundyBooger

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

 

Collectively, those seven average less than 1 Super Bowl title between them, so maybe he's on to something.

 

Wait, completely whiffing on two sure-fire future HoFers as well as two of the best young QBs currently in the NFL is being "on to something"?

[DogofWar1]

So re:SEC QBs, since 2011 through 2021 (so allowing for people to have had 3 seasons in the NFL) there have been 5 taken in the first round.  Mac Jones, Burrow, Tua, Johnny (sucks at) Football, and Cam Newton.

 

So a roughly 60% hit rate on 1st rounders isn't bad.  But it's also a small sample size.

 

I don't think we can draw any real conclusions from him being in the SEC.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

So re:SEC QBs, since 2011 through 2021 (so allowing for people to have had 3 seasons in the NFL) there have been 5 taken in the first round.  Mac Jones, Burrow, Tua, Johnny (sucks at) Football, and Cam Newton.

 

So a roughly 60% hit rate on 1st rounders isn't bad.  But it's also a small sample size.

 

I don't think we can draw any real conclusions from him being in the SEC.

 

I wasn't drawing a definitive conclusion about him being in the SEC one way or the other. I was saying that just putting up good numbers in the SEC doesn't automatically mean anything. The SEC argument has been used with Daniels a fair amount in here. "He put those numbers up in the SEC", but that in and of itself doesn't necessarily have as much significance as some think based on historical precedent IMO.

[Conn]

20 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

 

Collectively, those seven average less than 1 Super Bowl title between them, so maybe he's on to something.

This is lowest common denominator reasoning, I believe we can do better. It’s incredibly hard to win Super Bowls. Most of them go to HOF players which skews the average for everyone else playing during their respective eras. 
 

If that’s your bar for worthiness and success, just give up now. You’ll save yourself a lot of heartache and frustration. It’s nearly impossible for even the elite of the elite to win multiple Super Bowls. 

Edited April 8 by Conn

[CommanderInTheRye]

Will the Seahawks fix Sam Howell???

 

 

XXXXX

 

 

 

NFL executive insults Seahawks for how Seattle might handle Sam Howell

 

Seattle traded for the quarterback earlier this offseason.

 

By Lee Vowell | Apr 6, 2024

 

 

The Seattle Seahawks traded for quarterback Sam Howell this offseason to give Seattle depth at the position and likely make the need to take a quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft moot. Howell and presumed starter Geno Smith are both signed through 2025, though Howell is the much cheaper option in 2025 (hint hint). Howell started for the Washington Commanders in 2023 and he was better than most expected.

 

Oddly, the hope for Seattle in adding Howell is that he never plays in 2024. This would mean that Smith stays healthy and productive. If Howell does play, that means something has happened with Smith. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is likely not going to be quick to pull Smith if he does struggle early either so Howell likely sits unless Smith is injured.

 

But in the 2025 offseason. releasing Smith could be an option if Seattle thinks he is not the long-term option. Seattle could take a quarterback in the 2025 NFL draft and at least have Howell there to start if the rookie is not ready to take over. Meanwhile, moving on from Smith would save Seattle $25 million in cap space.

 

One exec thinks the Seattle Seahawks cannot fix Sam Howell

 

For the record, I am not hoping this happens. The hope would be, of course, that Seattle goes undefeated in 2024 and every year thereafter and that Geno Smith is the MVP of the NFL for the next two years. That is not realistic, however.

 

The truth, too, is that while Howell, a former fifth-round choice, did throw 21 touchdown passes in 2023, he also threw 21 interceptions. Especially early in the season, he held on to the ball too long behind a bad offensive line. One problem compounded the other.

 

A good offensive coordinator and quarterback coach can fix the issue, but can the Seahawks?

 

The answer to that is a hearty "no," according to a recent article by The Athletic (subscription required).

 

While the site spoke with different league executives about every team in the NFL, one (unnamed) exec compared Howell to Gardner Minshew only with a stronger arm. Howell, the exec said, could be "reckless" with the ball but that the tendency could be "fixed."

 

The rub is that the same exec said, "(Howell) is a little reckless with the ball. You can fix that, but I don’t know that (the Seahawks) will." Ouch. And well...why not?

 

This unknown executive isn't just casting doubt on Howell being fixed at all but about the Seahawks' new offensive staff's ability to do so. That seems harsh and unfair. Of course, only Howell playing and playing well will disprove the executive's words, but 12s should hope that the exec has to metaphorically eat a bird that is not a seahawk; that would be crow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jg77]

Dan Quinn was impressed by Daniels ability to process against SEC defenses (so it does hold some weight in his evaluations):

 

Quinn said seeing Daniels play against SEC defenses helped in his evaluation.

"Man, they have had concepts and looks and different things and Jayden has been able to really process things quickly," Quinn said.

[Ghost of]

41 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Also, before someone comes in and says "But Daniels was in the SEC!" there have been plenty of SEC QBs who have put up great stats in college but did nothing in the NFL, with the most notable recent ones being Mac Jones and Bryce Young. Both of them put up video game stats in college but are either busts (Jones) or possibly heading towards bust (Young).

 

Stats should always be taken with a grain of salt. Especially vs actual film study.

If anything, the SEC has a long history of not producing great QBs, I used to keep track of it. I'd almost exclude the Mannings from the conversation only because Archie was SEC and it's a family thing. It's not really indicative of QB play overall. If you take out Eli and Peyton

 

My old take (it's outdated, the change in offenses and QBing in the NFL have rendered it obsolete and population changes) was that ironically, the Big10 was better at producing QBs and WRs (in addition to obvious offensive line, etc.) The SEC produced better RBs (which back then made less sense, since Big10 really ran the ball in conventional offenses for the most part back then). 

[clskinsfan]

36 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

 

Collectively, those seven average less than 1 Super Bowl title between them, so maybe he's on to something.

I wonder how different those numbers would be without Tom Brady in the league? It is ridiculous to try to base a hall of famers success on SB wins. Would you pass on Dan Marino if he was in this draft?

[Llevron]

30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I wasn't drawing a definitive conclusion about him being in the SEC one way or the other. I was saying that just putting up good numbers in the SEC doesn't automatically mean anything. The SEC argument has been used with Daniels a fair amount in here. "He put those numbers up in the SEC", but that in and of itself doesn't necessarily have as much significance as some think based on historical precedent IMO.

I think it’s used as a fair counter to the arguments that his teammates did all the work for him. 

 

In the end no single data point matters enough on its own. They all need context. 

[mac8887]

23 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

WAS gets: #3 (NE), #44 (LV), #77 (LV), '26 1st (LV) = 765

WAS gives: #2, #100 = 752

 

NE gets: #13 (LV), #100 (WAS), '25 1st (LV), '25 2nd (LV) = 548

NE gives: #3 = 514

 

LV gets: #2 (WAS) = 717

LV gives: #13, #44, #77, '25 1st, '25 2nd, '26 1st = 764

 

That's the closest I can make it a win for all parties. I just don't know if LV would part with that much draft capital lol

How much do you think we could get in a trade back to #3. Hypothetically

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

I think it’s used as a fair counter to the arguments that his teammates did all the work for him. 

 

In the end no single data point matters enough on its own. They all need context. 

 

Fair point, though I don't think anyone here has said that Daniels did nothing and it was all the team around him, at least I haven't. They all play off of each other.

 

IMO when evaluating that it's better to look to the tape. For example in the case of his WRs when you watch the games you see that Nabers and Thomas regularly beat their DBs like drums and were able to get quite open (which is not surprising given that they're both top half of the 1st round talents going against guys who, while in the SEC, aren't on their level talent-wise).

 

That's not saying Daniels didn't play a major part. He still had to make good decisions and get the ball to them. But there's no doubting that having those guys certainly made life easier for him, regardless of the conference they played in. This is especially true given his propensity for not throwing until guys are open. That's one of the reasons his lack of anticipation throws is very concerning to me. He's not going to have that luxury in the NFL.

[Llevron]

58 minutes ago, BurgundyBooger said:

 

Collectively, those seven average less than 1 Super Bowl title between them, so maybe he's on to something.

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

[DiscoBob]

12 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

How much do you think we could get in a trade back to #3. Hypothetically

 

 I'm just spitballin here, but probably about 10 years of futility

[JamesMadisonSkins]

27 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

How much do you think we could get in a trade back to #3. Hypothetically

 

#2 = 717 points

#3 = 514 points

 

So the difference on paper is 203 points, equivalent to pick #29. Do we take a discount knowing we'll still get our guy? Do we ask for more given how important the #2 pick is to get Pats getting "their guy?" We aren't going to #3 without knowing we are getting our or one of our guys (if we see them both as equal). So this is assuming we still plan to get our guy regardless (and for this to happen, the Pats gotta think we're open to moving down further with someone else to come get whoever the Pats want).

 

Discount: #3 + #34 (689 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Overpay: #3 + #34 + '25 1st (810 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Even: #3 + #34 + #68 (762 to WAS) for #2 + #100 (752 to NE)

 

Even seems most likely to me. We get our guy (Maye, presumably) and round out the first two days with #34, #36, #40, #67, #68, #78

Edited April 8 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Going Commando]

13 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

 

We are high strung in here lol.  Now is not the time to make jokes that seem too close to a Skip Bayless take during the slow season.

[MisterPinstripe]

41 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

No joking in the QB thread apparently. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

19 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

#2 = 717 points

#3 = 514 points

 

So the difference on paper is 203 points, equivalent to pick #29. Do we take a discount knowing we'll still get our guy? Do we ask for more given how important the #2 pick is to get Pats getting "their guy?" We aren't going to #3 without knowing we are getting our or one of our guys (if we see them both as equal). So this is assuming we still plan to get our guy regardless (and for this to happen, the Pats gotta think we're open to moving down further with someone else to come get whoever the Pats want).

 

Discount: #3 + #34 (689 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Overpay: #3 + #34 + '25 1st (810 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Even: #3 + #34 + #68 (762 to WAS) for #2 + #100 (752 to NE)

 

Even seems most likely to me. We get our guy (Maye, presumably) and round out the first two days with #34, #36, #40, #67, #68, #78

 

 

Even seems most likely to me. We get our guy (Maye, presumably) and round out the first two days with #34, #36, #40, #67, #68, #78

 

If Maye really is our guy, and we're convinced that the team that gets our pick will draft Daniels, then this would be a brilliant move.

 

The genius of Peters deliberate obfuscation, with respect to our intentions with the second pick, is that absolutely no one has any idea who we're going to draft.

 

It allows us to credibly feign interest in a player that we have no intention of drafting (in this hypothetical Daniels).

 

Ideally, our presumed interest in Daniels could manipulate teams that actually desire him to offer us a deal which allows us to get the player we actually want most, plus additional draft capital, for trading back a bit.

 

If we could pull it off, this would be a major boss move by Peters, with no downside.

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'll add about Daniels if he can stay healthy which is a big if, rewatching him I'll double down more than he's not Fields part 2.  I think he will be successful.  He has to learn not to hang on too long to his first read but I think he can conquer that because at times he's decisive.  He's very decisive and quick with first level throws.  Maye is too but Maye is a bit erratic with those throws whereas Daniels isn't.  But like I said i like Maye over him -- because of age, arsenal of throws, arm strength.  But if Daniels can protect himself, I think he likely works in the NFL.

 

His running is the best I've seen in a college QB in eons.   You can make a living on first level throws.  See Alex Smith.  And he throws a really good fade -- no wonder Jay Gruden loves him .  He throws a good deep ball but IMO its a tade overrated.   Sometimes they are underthrown.  He puts a lot of air-arc on the ball which is good when you have good Wrs who are going to win one on one but not so much when you don't.  I actually like Maye's deep ball better.

 

But if Daniels, i think I'd want a physical WR who can make deep catches like Legette.  I'd kill for Brian Thomas on that front but he'd be gone. Burton would be perfect IMO but he's a bit of a headcase.  Roll of the dice players going later in the draft: Baker

 

If its Maye, I'd want high floor 2nd level WR killers -- McConkey, Wilson, Pearsall.    Roll of the dice players going later in the draft: Thrash, McMillian.

 

About 2.5 weeks out, I am riding on wanting Maye to the end.  But I am not one of the no way we can take Daniels guys here.  As for what they do?  50-50 hard call.  So much mixed rumors.

 

Tough for me to get likewised jazzed about McCarthy and i won't take a rumor about him seriously until I hear it from a reporter with some reputation of guessing right.  And that hasn't happened yet but there is still time for that to unfold.

Surprised there are no comments about how light he is on his feet, I watched that total plays of 2023 of his and one thing that stood out was almost every time he got hit he flew backwards or sideways and goes down easily like being run over. More like a less tough RG3/Fields as a runner with some straight line speed with some wiggle not as much as Fields. Nothing like Lamar who has some power, speed and moves and does not go backs wards when he is it. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, skinsfan66 said:

Surprised there are no comments about how light he is on his feet, I watched that total plays of 2023 of his and one thing that stood out was almost every time he got hit he flew backwards or sideways and goes down easily like being run over. More like a less tough RG3/Fields as a runner with some straight line speed with some wiggle not as much as Fields. Nothing like Lamar who has some power, speed and moves and does not go backs wards when he is it. 

 

There has been plenty of talk about his thin frame and getting rammed a bit like a rag doll.  Disagree that its almost every time.  But sometimes when it did happen it looked brutal.

 

It's been posted plenty of times on this thread.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

53 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

Yeah, really. I know sarcasm can be difficult to discern on the Internet sometimes but come on guys…

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

 

Yall couldn't tell this was a joke? Really lol 

 

 

Forum rules require that when making jokes, to prevent misapprehension, you must either state in all caps and  bold print THIS WAS A JOKE at the end of your post or alternatively you have the option to insert the following image at the end of your post...

 

 

 

 

 

 

No exceptions.

 

 

 

.

 

EDIT for rules compliance:

 

THIS WAS A JOKE.

 

 

Edited April 8 by CommanderInTheRye

[WashingtonRedWolves]

48 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

#2 = 717 points

#3 = 514 points

 

So the difference on paper is 203 points, equivalent to pick #29. Do we take a discount knowing we'll still get our guy? Do we ask for more given how important the #2 pick is to get Pats getting "their guy?" We aren't going to #3 without knowing we are getting our or one of our guys (if we see them both as equal). So this is assuming we still plan to get our guy regardless (and for this to happen, the Pats gotta think we're open to moving down further with someone else to come get whoever the Pats want).

 

Discount: #3 + #34 (689 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Overpay: #3 + #34 + '25 1st (810 to WAS) for #2 (717 to NE)

Even: #3 + #34 + #68 (762 to WAS) for #2 + #100 (752 to NE)

 

Even seems most likely to me. We get our guy (Maye, presumably) and round out the first two days with #34, #36, #40, #67, #68, #78

An extra 2nd would be perfect here in that we trade two of 34/36/40 to move up for an OT like Fashanu and still have a remaining 2nd rounder to play with. Maybe that TE Sanders