The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

8 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

 

I appreciate all the charting this guy did and all of the film he watched, but it still turns me off when people make crazy proclamations about prospects like "I'd take him over anyone currently playing", "He's going to break the league", or "It isn't fair how good he is"

 

It makes him sound less like a reliable source of information and more like a fanboy of a certain player. Stick to the facts.

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

I appreciate all the charting this guy did and all of the film he watched, but it still turns me off when people make crazy proclamations about prospects like "I'd take him over anyone currently playing", "He's going to break the league", or "It isn't fair how good he is"

 

It makes him sound less like a reliable source of information and more like a fanboy of a certain player. Stick to the facts.

Yeah, it’s definitely over the top. But everyone has their opinion… as long as the person actually puts in the work and has a reasonable basis for their statements, I give them the benefit of the doubt. 
 

I think some of his over the top statements like “I’d take him over anyone currently playing” takes contract and age into account, but it’s still quite a hyperbolic statement to make. Yet I respect that he provides detailed backup charting/analysis that people can refer to years down the line and judge him as either prophet or clown. 
 

 

[redskinss]

So what do what we got, 3 more months of tastes great versus less filling?

 

It's going to be a long 3 months.

 

 

[MartinC]

There are some good evaluators creating content on social media. There are some guys who dont know any more than some posters on here. Most of the content is just to get engagement and is mediocre - at best.

 

Easy access for anyone to All-22 film is both a blessing and curse.

 

None of them - NONE - have the ability to sit down up close, do interviews and play break downs. The ability to retain information, process and make good decisions is key to a QBs success - and NONE of the social media grades include this.

[seantaylor=god]

When I watch these guys I try and imagine them in the NFL. Are there successful players like them?

 

When I look at the plays that they are succeeding on, was everything around them perfect or did they have to evade rushers and reset, or get to their second or third read? Are they making NFL throws? Are their wins things that will work in the NFL?
 

Context is what makes it so difficult.

 

Bo Nix in that system looks decisive and elite. Jayden throwing bombs/ running all over looks fantastic.

Drake Maye has prototypical tools but didn’t play as well last year as other QBs.

Penix is slippery in the pocket with a rifle arm.

ETC. 

 

Who will be the best pro, not who performed the best in his last year of college, not who runs the fastest or has the best arm. 
 

And we haven’t even mentioned football intelligence, processing, work ethic, leadership, off the field issues, psychology, scheme fit, coaching, poor organization ruining their chance, etc. 

 

It’s so difficult and why it’s wild when people act like they know for sure who will succeed.

 

Every one of these QBs, in the right system, with proper coaching, with players around them, has a chance to be successful. But most won’t be, and for some due to circumstances completely outside their control.

 

For the first time in 20 years, football evaluators will be leading our decision making and we have a process in place to actually get it right.

[MrJL]

9 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

RG3 refused to be a runner anymore and was utterly incapable of being a pocket passer, while also being a total headcase. Bad combo. 

 

Though I prefer Maye to Daniels, Jayden is clearly IMO a better pocket passer than Robert at this point and doesn't seem to have any of the character-issues Robert was plagued with.

 

I've always found that narrative to be questionable because in season 2 RG3 was hobbled by his ACL for all of training camp and like the first half of the season. 

[88Comrade2000]

Whatever we do at qb, we need to hit. If we can get a solid 10 year+ starter; that would be great.   If we get it wrong, it will set us back years again.

[bearrock]

30 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, it’s definitely over the top. But everyone has their opinion… as long as the person actually puts in the work and has a reasonable basis for their statements, I give them the benefit of the doubt. 
 

I think some of his over the top statements like “I’d take him over anyone currently playing” takes contract and age into account, but it’s still quite a hyperbolic statement to make. Yet I respect that he provides detailed backup charting/analysis that people can refer to years down the line and judge him as either prophet or clown. 
 

 

 

I wonder how the guy has been with past predictions.  I saw he thought Stroud was gonna be bad and was very pro Howell in the lead up to the draft, fwiw.

[SkinsFTW]

37 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If we get it wrong, it will set us back years again.

 

Not necessarily. If the FO knows what they are doing they can turn the team around and still draft a QB again in a year, and then again too. 

 

Doofus Dan isn't making the first round picks anymore either. And the Riverboat is sunk. 

[HTTRDynasty]

44 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

I wonder how the guy has been with past predictions.  I saw he thought Stroud was gonna be bad and was very pro Howell in the lead up to the draft, fwiw.

 

I know he was super high on Herbert before the 2020 draft, which was obviously a great call.  He has hits and misses like everyone else, but I don't think it's accurate to say he "thought Stroud was gonna be bad"; he said Stroud "will be a very legitimate NFL starter" if he goes to the right structured offense, which he found in the Shanahan system.  Here's his summary write-up on Stroud from last year:

 

Quote

Synopsis

 

CJ Stroud is the kind of player who seems a lot better when you haven’t watched him in a while. He sounds great in theory: a 6’3 athlete who is a legitimate pocket passer with great production and solid arm talent. Stroud is also a 5-star recruit who was the runner-up for the Heisman twice.

 

The issue is that the self-proclaimed “ball placement specialist” has great stats that are empty calories. His 2021 WR corps may be the best in college history, and his 2022 WR1, Marvin Harrison Jr., is probably the best WR prospect I’ve ever seen. His offensive line was also incredible.

 

Stroud’s arm strength is good, but not great. He can throw the ball about 55 yards downfield, but he doesn’t have very good zip on his throws. They have a tendency to hang in the air a little bit, which is why he isn’t as good at throwing to the 2nd level of a defense as he is at throwing to the other areas of the field. His touch is superb, though. He throws a feathery, Charmin-soft ball that is easy to catch. That touch is probably his best asset. He is also a very good athlete who could legitimately be a decent NFL runner, but he choses to be a pocket passer, which is an ideal combination.

 

When I say that he is like Zach Wilson, I mean that he panics at the first sign of pressure. He will not only bail from fairly clean pockets or miss throws as he panics upon the specter of contact, but he also throws off of his back foot or fades away from his throws often because he is terrified of contact. He will almost never throw through a hit, and has to be one of the most contact-averse QBs in recent memory.

 

His processing isn’t terrible, and he is very good at understanding where to go before the snap, but he panics when bullets fly, which is the root of his cowardice in the pocket as well. The final area that this panic manifests itself is in the red zone, where his ball placement suffers substantially.

 

If he is kept clean, in a structured offense, and can throw to his early reads without being hit, he can and will be a very legitimate NFL starter.

 

 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/cj-stroud-report-80640718

 

 

Also, here's what he's written so far on Maye with a full synopsis to come later apparently:

 

Quote

 

Drake Maye is a big, strong, athlete. He can legitimately run like a move TE, at 6'4, 230. 

 

His greatest strength is his absurd deep ball. Not only can he throw the ball 80 yards, but he has excellent deep accuracy. He has been accurate on 20 of the 26 deep balls I have graded so far. That's 77%. That's insane. Maye's range and velocity are ideal. There's not a throw he can't make. 

 

His greatest weakness is that he's only a fairly solid processor. It may be related to the unconventional offense he was stuck in, his poor supporting cast, or a tendency towards hero ball, but he had a small tendency to pass up clean throws for bigger shots. That aggression is both a blessing and a curse, and will need to be properly managed by his coach at the next level. That being said, Maye doesn't let all the drops, blown protections, and other letdowns bother him. Again and again, he led his team back after they squandered his great play, excelling in the clutch, and throwing would-be game-winning TD passes that were frequently dropped, late in the 4th quarter.

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I know he was super high on Herbert before the 2020 draft, which was obviously a great call.  He has hits and misses like everyone else, but I don't think it's accurate to say he "thought Stroud was gonna be bad"; he said Stroud "will be a very legitimate NFL starter" if he goes to the right structured offense, which he found in the Shanahan system.  Here's his summary write-up on Stroud from last year:

 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/cj-stroud-report-80640718

 

 

Also, here's what he's written so far on Maye with a full synopsis to come later apparently:

 

 

Not sure how he gets from Maye being overly aggressive sometimes (true) and trying to play hero ball sometimes (true) to him not being a great processor. IMO those are separate things.

[skinsfan66]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Man I thought I was a big Maye fan, that Joe guy blows me out of the water LOL

 

 

Mahomes isnt really a dual threat in the typical sense. He moves to buy time to make crazy throws but hes not an explosive runner. He actually looks kinda awkward when he runs. Its his ability to make every throw while running without really sacrificing velocity or accuracy that makes him special. Jackson is a true dual threat and Goff and Purdy are obviously pure pocket passers with little to no mobility to speak of.

 

Id put Maye closer to the Mahomes tier of mobility. In actuality hes kinda like Josh Allen or Big Ben(bit smaller but bit faster) as a thrower-runner combo. Williams is closest to Mahomes and Daniels closest to Jackson. 
 

Its an exciting QB crop for sure and were VERY fortunate we tanked so hard well have a chance at two of the three.

I agree Mahomes is not a dual treat or a pure passer who can run, was not meant that way. Williams is closet agree there too, they do things a little different. Just let them do what they do. No need to adapt a style like the dual treats. Not seeing Maye as a Mahomes type, more Big Ben, Josh Allen as you say.

[bearrock]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I know he was super high on Herbert before the 2020 draft, which was obviously a great call.  He has hits and misses like everyone else, but I don't think it's accurate to say he "thought Stroud was gonna be bad"; he said Stroud "will be a very legitimate NFL starter" if he goes to the right structured offense, which he found in the Shanahan system.  Here's his summary write-up on Stroud from last year:

 

 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/cj-stroud-report-80640718

 

 

Also, here's what he's written so far on Maye with a full synopsis to come later apparently:

 

 

 

 

 

I think "legitimate NFL starter" has a wide room for interpretation.  His other tweets seem to indicate that his opinion of Stroud is pretty low.  But yeah, bad is probably overstating on my part, but the lead up to last year's draft is full of negative tweets about Stroud, below being some samples.

 

 

 

 

[Hooper]

Holy smokes, he had Levis over Stroud?

 

Clear what he looks for in a player. Big and handsome. Shocking Danny Boy didn't employ him.

[FootballZombie]

Off topic but I can't see the name Levis w/o remembering that dude was in my running for "Lowest football IQ" play of the year.

 

Dude threw a near his own goaline INT to a DT, and then saw fit to take on said 6'6 300 pound Zack Sieler head first from 2 yards deep in his own endzone.

I immediately stopped caring about the INT and chastised what on earth he was doing in the aftermath.

 

You made a bad play, they are gonna score, don't compound it by getting yourself hurt too.

Levis has good size, but your not stopping a dude who is like 2 of you put together.

 

 

 

[ExoDus84]

23 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Holy smokes, he had Levis over Stroud?

 

Clear what he looks for in a player. Big and handsome. Shocking Danny Boy didn't employ him.

 

I think the consensus was Stroud was a project coming out, correct? I don't think anybody saw him storming out the gates like he did.

 

Joe-A (I don't follow this person) was seemingly right about Levis being mediocre ("not a huge fan"), and Young being crap. Picking a QB is hard though. if it was easy, every team would have their their own Peyton Manning.

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

There are some good evaluators creating content on social media. There are some guys who dont know any more than some posters on here. Most of the content is just to get engagement and is mediocre - at best.

 

Easy access for anyone to All-22 film is both a blessing and curse.

 

None of them - NONE - have the ability to sit down up close, do interviews and play break downs. The ability to retain information, process and make good decisions is key to a QBs success - and NONE of the social media grades include this.

I mean, isn’t it all just a big posturing game. The basic eye test can tell you quite a lot about a prospect. The enormous intangible is the prospect itself, person, habits, work ethic, desire, passion for football.…

 

The easy thing is analysing historic performance and base fundamentals of play, is that part really difficult ….

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, ExoDus84 said:

 

I think the consensus was Stroud was a project coming out, correct? I don't think anybody saw him storming out the gates like he did.

 

Joe-A (I don't follow this person) was seemingly right about Levis being mediocre ("not a huge fan"), and Young being crap. Picking a QB is hard though. if it was easy, every team would have their their own Peyton Manning.

 

Ehhh, no both Simms and Riddick were pretty clear about Stroud being QB1 and the clear QB1. Neither ever deviated from it and both said he would be good out of the gate. 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Ehhh, no both Simms and Riddick were pretty clear about Stroud being QB1 and the clear QB1. Neither ever deviated from it and both said he would be good out of the gate. 

 

 

You can find any analyst, blogger, or scout in any draft year who will say that one of the top 2 or 3 QBs is clearly the best. Let's not take a couple of opinions and make it seem as if there was some overwhelming consensus on Stroud being anything close to a sure thing stud, because that's far from true.

[Thinking Skins]

I don't want to cloud the board with too many confusing images. So I spent a lot of time trying to work on this image this weekend. Let me know if you can understand it. This is QB sacks since 2019. I wont get into the details of the debugging of why the image was wrong but I was too excited about getting an image and got the wrong image to display. This one should be better and show more correlation. 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

You can find any analyst, blogger, or scout in any draft year who will say that one of the top 2 or 3 QBs is clearly the best. Let's not take a couple of opinions and make it seem as if there was some overwhelming consensus on Stroud being anything close to a sure thing stud, because that's far from true.

 

There wasn't an overwhelming consensus but two of the most trusted analysts when it comes to QB play were consistently screaming "watch the tape" when it came to Stroud over and over and over again. 

[mistertim]

Just now, ThatNFLChick said:

 

There wasn't an overwhelming consensus but two of the most trusted analysts when it comes to QB play were consistently screaming "watch the tape" when it came to Stroud over and over and over again. 

 

Yes and I'm sure they've said the same sorts of things about guys who ended up being misses. The point is that Stroud was absolutely not seen as some can't miss prospect. There were plenty of questions about him coming out. Lots of people did see him as very talented but possibly a bit raw for the NFL game and might take some time to adapt. Obviously, so far that's not the case. But that's also hindsight. 

[FootballZombie]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Let me know if you can understand it.

 

95% readable to me.

 

It helps that all of these names are recent so its easier to pick them out of the jumbled areas just due to familiarity.

We have Stoud, Nix and Ridder on the brain so you can subconsciously weed them out.

If you went back further that would get harder and harder.

[Hooper]

Lots of people loved Stroud. Reich apparently wanted him.  Projecting Levis over him and now killing people who have some questions about Maye is hilarious.  Good Lord, he had Tanner McKee ranked higher. It's clear this guy likes QBs with certain measurable and appearance. 

 

 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

95% readable to me.

 

It helps that all of these names are recent so its easier to pick them out of the jumbled areas just due to familiarity.

We have Stoud, Nix and Ridder on the brain so you can subconsciously weed them out.

If you went back further that would get harder and harder.

I tried to eliminate a lot of the lower round no names that didn't make the NFL. I kept the guys like Garner Minshew in some graphs though because he made it. But what about Brett Rypien? I think he was eliminated, but I don't know. 

 

Some draft classes still have like 5 or 6 QBs that are listed. And some just have like 2.