The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[wit33]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I've had a little time to reflect on the offense and on Howell.  Here's my reflection:

 

I think there is a small amount of criticism EB is taking that is warranted.  

 

I think a whole lot is not deserved at all.

 

The "run the ball more" crowd just needs to shut up.  That's not how you do offense in the league now, and it's not the Andy Reid system.  Reid has been pass-first, run when appropriate (especially in the second half) for his entire career.  He was roasted for it in Philly with McNabb.  You know what?  He's smarter than all of the critics.  EB is a Reid disciple.  He's following the same blueprint.  It's fine.  It works.  

 

As I called out in the "Day After: Bea" thread: over the first 3 drives, they ran the ball 6 times for 10 yards, and that included 5 straight runs for 1 yard or less.  The first run of the game was 5 yards, the next 5 net 5 yards.  It directly led to 2 3-outs.  You can "stick with" the running game only if you can pick up first downs.  Over 5 runs, if you get 5 yards, you can't stick with the running game. It wasn't working even a little bit.  So, EB abandoned it and went to something which was working, which was throwing the ball to 11 different receivers.  He fully substituted the short pass for the run, because the run wasn't working even a little bit.  He couldn't sacrifice another drive or two to "stick with the running game" with the way the defense was playing.  If the defense was holding it's own, fine, you can keep at it and punt.  When the defense is being torched, you don't have that luxury.  You have to score every drive to stay in the game.  If over 6 runs you have 10 yards, it's time to do something else.  

 

Now, could he have come back to the run a little later, at least here or there?  Yes.  I wanted him to run down around the goal line, a draw or something probably would have caught the defense flat footed.  But they scored anyway, so it's tough to criticize.

 

I like Robinson. However, the results over a bunch of games now is runs early in games aren't good, and are better once the pass has been established.  That's the pattern.  

 

Which takes us to Howell.  

 

He basically took the entire offense over against the Bears.  After 2 3-outs, a bunch of which was due to trying to be balanced and run the ball unsuccessfully, he QBed the offence over the next 7 drives to 20 points, and was basically moving the ball up and down the field.  3 big mistakes, or it would have been more:  Slye's missed FG is automatic 3 points, Logan Thomas' fumble.  No fumble and they have the ball at their own 47 with a first down.  Very likely get points out of that drive.  And then Howell's INT.  All bad.  Apart from those three mistakes, they basically had their way with the Bear's defense for the middle part of the game.  The problem: the defense just kept giving up more and more points.  

 

A fair criticism of Howell at the moment is he holds the ball too long, and needs to speed up the process and get the ball out of his hands.  The concern is he's a "throw it after you see it open" guy.  I don't think that's the case, but if it is, he's not going to last.  This also can't really be coached.  Either that's who you are or you aren't.  

 

If he's a "throw with anticipation" guy, then this is going to improve with time.  The sacks will go down, and the completions will go up.  I think this is what you're going to see.  It's Sam's first year in one of the most wordy, complex offenses in the history of the NFL.  (Also one of the best.)  But it's going to take some time for him to "get it." 

 

Apart from the processing speed criticism, which is fair, there's nothing else to criticize.  He's learning.  He's played 6 games.  He's going to make some bone-headed mistakes.  Peyton Manning threw 20 INTS (or something like that) his rookie year.  They put the entire offense on him, and he had to sink or swim. He sank a lot.  Then he turned into one of the best swimmers of all time.  I don't expect Sam to have the same trajectory as Manning, but I could see a similar path, where he just keeps getting better, better, quicker and quicker as the season goes on.

 

Absent the Bills game, the offense has carried this team.  They're going to have to continue to do it.  I don't expect the defense to turn it around this year.  Call it a hunch.  I think it's just broken.  

 

That means Sam's going to have to throw the ball a ton the rest of the season.  

 

One other thing: I would argue the Commanders had excellent balance against the Bears offensively: 11 players caught passes.  That's actually balance.  It's not run/pass balance, but it is balance.  My nit-pick is Terry needs to be getting A LOT more targets.  He had 4 receptions on 5 targets.  Thomas had 9 receptions on 11 targets.  I think that needs to flip.  But having said that, if they were bracketing Terry and that took Sam to the TE, that shows significant growth from him.

 

Somebody once said Tom Brady's superpower was just doing the "boring" thing over and over again. (I looked for the quote, I can't find it.  It might have actually been Payton who said it.  I remember hearing it on TV at some point.)  So, if that's the reason Thomas got 11 targets, I can live with that.  

100%. 
 

I have confidence EB will stay the course and not let outside or even internal pressure get him away from his philosophy and vision. He’s an older dude with many years in the game and financially set for life, harder to move those dudes off their path. Elite ceiling potential! 
 

Love that Howell is getting thrown into the fire and being given opportunity to sink or swim. 

 

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Looooove this! Drop him back more and more! Continue to attack defenses in whatever way is best for that drive, quarter, half or game. 

[Conn]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I theorized after the first two weeks that EB was trying to speed-run Howell through basically 1.5 seasons worth of passing play reps this season to fast track his development and have him looking like more of a vet by the end of the season. It’s not a stretch at all to say that he’ll easily DOUBLE the pass reps Heinicke was allowed to have (as we were doing our best to hide him each week). That’s going to pay huge dividends for his development whether EB continues to see it through next year or not. I appreciate it either way (assuming Howell lives through the sacks) because we’re going to end this season knowing a TON more about him than we would if they were shortening games to increase variance and try to fake their way into a playoff spot like last year. Of course, this approach also exposes how weak the OL is—its a high risk/high reward plan to pass Howell through fire and see if he comes out unburnt. As a fan who wants the next GM to have as much information on Howell as possible, I kind of appreciate it.

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, Conn said:

I theorized after the first two weeks that EB was trying to speed-run Howell through basically 1.5 seasons worth of passing play reps this season to fast track his development and have him looking like more of a vet by the end of the season. It’s not a stretch at all to say that he’ll easily DOUBLE the pass reps Heinicke was allowed to have (as we were doing our best to hide him each week). That’s going to pay huge dividends for his development whether EB continues to see it through next year or not. I appreciate it either way (assuming Howell lives through the sacks) because we’re going to end this season knowing a TON more about him than we would if they were shortening games to increase variance and try to fake their way into a playoff spot like last year. Of course, this approach also exposes how weak the OL is—its a high risk/high reward plan to pass Howell through fire and see if he comes out unburnt. As a fan who wants the next GM to have as much information on Howell as possible, I kind of appreciate it.

Great way to break a young QB as well. Couple dinosaur coaches hanging their future on a first year QB, regardless of what happens to him is weak.

[FootballZombie]

Howell is on pace to absorb more sacks this year than any human in history by like a margin of 30.

Bodies are not built to withstand that level of punishment.

I can't look at that and think Howell crawling out the other side OK is even remotely the most realistic outcome to the current pathway.

[redskinss]

20 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Really feel good about Sam, but Purdy is clearly #1 by a mile

Although I agree that purdy has been better than Howell in pretty much every measurable category the original premise of his argument was the word individually.

 

Once you insert that word it changes the debate and an argument can be made that because one is in one of the worst situations possible while the other is in almost undeniably the best that Sam has done more with less.

If we had drafted purdy and the niners had drafted Howell I think we'd be seeing that right now, Sam would probably be having great success while purdy would most likely be in traction.

[Warhead36]

50 minutes ago, Conn said:

I theorized after the first two weeks that EB was trying to speed-run Howell through basically 1.5 seasons worth of passing play reps this season to fast track his development and have him looking like more of a vet by the end of the season. It’s not a stretch at all to say that he’ll easily DOUBLE the pass reps Heinicke was allowed to have (as we were doing our best to hide him each week). That’s going to pay huge dividends for his development whether EB continues to see it through next year or not. I appreciate it either way (assuming Howell lives through the sacks) because we’re going to end this season knowing a TON more about him than we would if they were shortening games to increase variance and try to fake their way into a playoff spot like last year. Of course, this approach also exposes how weak the OL is—its a high risk/high reward plan to pass Howell through fire and see if he comes out unburnt. As a fan who wants the next GM to have as much information on Howell as possible, I kind of appreciate it.

Yeah I think EB's mindset is that the best way to win in today's NFL is throwing the football, so we gotta get Howell going and see if he has it otherwise we're just wasting time being a run first ground and pound team and grinding out 8-9 wins because that has no sustainable future.

[wit33]

 

If a quarterback is constantly under pressure without much personal success, it can certainly impact their confidence. Sam Howell, for instance, has faced a fair amount of pressure but still seems confident in his abilities as a QB, with 131 completed passes, a 68% pass completion rate, three games with over 290 yards, and six touchdown throws.

For comparison, David Carr is often cited as a potential example of a QB who struggled significantly. He had a completion percentage of only 52%, 2,500 passing yards, nine passing touchdowns, and 233 completions in 16 games. 
 

We’ll see how he holds up physically and it seems he’s wanting to work on taking less hits. 

 

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I think EB's mindset is that the best way to win in today's NFL is throwing the football, so we gotta get Howell going and see if he has it otherwise we're just wasting time being a run first ground and pound team and grinding out 8-9 wins because that has no sustainable future.

Exactly, rather have the potential franchise QB with 400 completions under his belt in a season even if it’s playing .500 type ball 

[oraphus]

you have to run the ball effectively period. we want to break our qb in and teach him how to throw is one of the most idiotic things i have heard. You need to take the pressure off the qb by running the ball.. and obviously reduce the chance of sacks. On top of Howells propensity for taking sacks, the O philosophy seems to me .. lets just chuck it and see what happens. 

Its about winning in the NFL... QB development is secondary. You have a significantly higher chance of making your qb gun shy and scared in the pocket then actually have him develop taking hit after hit...  Youre about to get Wentz 2.0, congrats!

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Great way to break a young QB as well. Couple dinosaur coaches hanging their future on a first year QB, regardless of what happens to him is weak.

For sure, that’s the other half of the “high risk/high reward”. The risk is that he can’t handle it and what we learn is that he’s been ruined. The potential reward is that he can handle the recklessness of his coaches and the next staff benefits with a lot more high-relevance tape to assess, and Howell himself sneaks in anywhere from 50-100% more reps than he would have gotten in a more cautious (and probably responsible) offense. These coaches aren’t gonna change their approach so we have to basically hope for the silver lining outcome for Howell the developing QB as they all look for jobs in a few months. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Conn

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Conn said:

For sure, that’s the other half of the “high risk/high reward. The risk is that he can’t handle it and what we learn is that he’s been ruined. The potential reward is that he can handle the recklessness of his coaches and the next staff benefits with a lot more high-relevance tape to assess, and Howell himself sneaks in anywhere from 50-100% more reps than he would have gotten in a more cautious (and probably responsible) offense. These coaches aren’t gonna change their approach so we have to basically hope for the silver lining outcome for Howell the developing QB as they all look for jobs in a few months. 

It sucks seeing coaches with longer leashes use their young QB correctly, like Houston and Atlanta and building a future for them, while ours, who will all be fired, hang everything from the entire offense, to the excuses on Howell.

[Conn]

9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It sucks seeing coaches with longer leashes use their young QB correctly, like Houston and Atlanta and building a future for them, while ours, who will all be fired, hang everything from the entire offense, to the excuses on Howell.

That’s the downside of a regime getting QB wrong so many times and growing desperate. And being arrogant about the choices they’re making the entire time makes it worse. 

[Chris 44]

51 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It sucks seeing coaches with longer leashes use their young QB correctly, like Houston and Atlanta and building a future for them, while ours, who will all be fired, hang everything from the entire offense, to the excuses on Howell.

So Ron what's the deal with the stadium hot dogs?

Well, we have a rookie QB, things take time.

[wit33]

 

Howell seems well-prepared to handle the challenges of an NFL season, both physically and mentally, even without an elite offensive line. All this talk about coddling or whatever is unnecessary. It's reminiscent of the discussions I heard from Eagles fans during the Andy Reid years. Hoping EB continues to push it to the max and Howell continues to experience blips of elite play (Pressure creates diamonds—RG3)
 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Great way to break a young QB as well. Couple dinosaur coaches hanging their future on a first year QB, regardless of what happens to him is weak.

I agree with this, but honestly, he's got to grow somehow and the only way to do it is to play and experience things.

 

I think EB could maybe do a few things different.  On the whole, I think he's done an absolutely spectacular job.  I turn a complete deaf ear to the "run the ball" criticism. Literally nobody is going to convince me running the ball would lead to anything other than worse output and longer development.

 

Sam, at the end of the day, needs to protect Sam by speeding up his processing.  

 

If he can't, and is blasted into smitherenes, well, then he will never be the guy anyway and it's good to know that.

 

Processing speed is the #1 thing you need to find out about a young QB.  Sam's shown he has just about everything else except 4 more inches (har har har).  If he was 6-4, he would have been the consensus #1 overall pick in the draft.  But he's not.  So he wasn't.  

 

But he's got a great arm, good speed, intangibles which we now call moxie, doesn't flinch under pressure, short memory, comes back from mistakes.  

 

All that's good.

 

If he can't process quicker, he's at best a 20-32 starting QB in the league, though probably has a short career because he'll be beaten into a sand puppet and blown into the wind.

 

They have to keep coaching him, and he has to keep improving his processing speed.  If he does, the sacks will disappear. 

 

If they don't, then you have your answer on Sam anyway and need to look elsewhere.  

 

It's that simple.

 

Keep chucking the ball 40-50 times a game. Run when it makes sense to run. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Howell is on pace to absorb more sacks this year than any human in history by like a margin of 30.

Bodies are not built to withstand that level of punishment.

I can't look at that and think Howell crawling out the other side OK is even remotely the most realistic outcome to the current pathway.

But let's be honest about SOME of these sacks, not all, but at least some, are barely sacks.  He has dove forward for -1 or 0 yards about 5 times without taking a hit.

 

I'm actually more concerned with him running down the field and then pin-balling off of 5 guys and then getting wholloped than the sacks.  

 

He needs to clean that up.  I"ve actually never seen so many -1 or 0 yard sacks before.  He's gotten pretty good at that.  

1 hour ago, Conn said:

That’s the downside of a regime getting QB wrong so many times and growing desperate. And being arrogant about the choices they’re making the entire time makes it worse. 

So, what's odd to me is I'm not entirely sure what Ron thinks.  He keeps saying he's playing a young QB and there will be growing pains.  

 

But EB is treating him as a "normal" QB, in a lot of ways.  

 

Where I really am pissed at Ron is the end of the bills game and the end of the Bears game.  Those games were lost in the final few minutes.  If you don't bench him, at the very least you need to protect him at that point.  And literally everybody else.  What happens if you run a stupid dig route and McLaurin gets his toe bent backwards again down 20 points with 2 minutes to go in the Bear's game?  It's just atrocious team management.  

 

I'm mad at Ron for that.

 

I am not mad at EB.  It's on the HC to make those decisions.  Not the OC.

[Stone Cold]

As good as Sam has been, just imagine if we draft OL this season and he can perform without constant pressure.  Love what I see so far.  He’s playing just like he did with UNC and the awful line they had.  Get this guy some protection and watch him blossom into our very own QB that can win games…not just manage them.  
 

also…EB, pretty please tell Sam he can throw it away sometimes.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Stone Cold

[Koolblue13]

37 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I agree with this, but honestly, he's got to grow somehow and the only way to do it is to play and experience things.

 

 

There are ways to let him learn and grow and ways to break him.

 

Everyone should learn to swim, but you don't need to be in 20 foot seas with somebody handing you bricks and yelling at you.

 

Unless you somehow think EB is some revolutionary offensive genius that the NFL has been hiding and he knows more than everybody else, having your QB get destroyed behind a bad line, while you refuse provide protection or a run game, also while your WRs can't get open, than I'd understand. 

1 hour ago, Chris 44 said:

So Ron what's the deal with the stadium hot dogs?

Well, we have a rookie QB, things take time.

Gotta let that hot dog cook a while longer. Really let it simmer in the boiling hot dog water (also a better name than commanders)

[FootballZombie]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

There are ways to let him learn and grow and ways to break him.

 

Everyone should learn to swim, but you don't need to be in 20 foot seas with somebody handing you bricks and yelling at you.

 

Unless you somehow think EB is some revolutionary offensive genius that the NFL has been hiding and he knows more than everybody else, having your QB get destroyed behind a bad line, while you refuse provide protection or a run game, also while your WRs can't get open, than I'd understand. 

 

Everybody knows the best way to develop a QB is the old Spartan technique where you send a kid into the wilderness and he either returns a man or dies. Time tested.

 

Our current team strategy for Howell:

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

There is a world that exists between throwing 50 straight passes and running for the sake of running even when it’s not working.

 

I do think there is a benefit to dropping him back and giving him trial by fire.  In 5 games this season, he’s been asked to do and handle more than a lot of guys do in an entire season.  There’s value in that.

 

The risk to me is not breaking his confidence, it’s breaking his body.  To just keep trotting him out there in hopeless situations like a tackling dummy is criminal behavior disguised as never quit tough guy BS.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

The throw the ball away crowd are the most interesting. Half the time people want him to throw it he’s about to take a hit. Really bad idea to let one float in that scenario. Other times they seem to want him to catch the snap and immediately loft it to the bleachers.

 

He throws it away. 
 

His biggest issue is that he finds a guy who is going to get open based on coverage and then waits on it when the first options aren’t there. And since he knows he’s going to come free he waits. 
 

And then he gets sacked. 
 

I’d like to see him start to navigate the pocket a bit better but also use more slide protections to allow him to move more horizontally. It’s hard for a shorter QB to step up in the pocket and throw. It’s also difficult to step up when the pocket is in your lap. So vertical movement is more difficult. I’d like to get the defense moving more horizontally and let Sam get some set up time. 
 

You can still run 3/5 step drops. Just more stuff that has him able to move horizontally and read half fields. 
 

But otherwise I think he’s been pretty good all things considered. Buffalo was the only game I’ve seen him where I said, “yikes”. But he was under constant duress as well.

[Conn]

Thought this thread and these exchanges from it were interesting enough to share

[NewCliche21]

@Conn

 

Man help me out, what were all the Twitter people trying to say with the maths?  All things considered, is Howell causing/allowing more sacks than he's getting because swiss cheese offensive line and play call?

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

@Conn

 

Man help me out, what were all the Twitter people trying to say with the maths?  All things considered, is Howell causing/allowing more sacks than he's getting because swiss cheese offensive line and play call?

I think the wild card here is the playcalling. That’s very difficult to quantify. These numbers are basically showing that, even taking into account the poor offensive line play, Howell is taking too many sacks. I of course can’t speak to how accurate the numbers are or what the margin for error is, I just thought it was interesting enough to share.

[KDawg]

None of that data accounts for sacks that didn’t happen because of Howell’s legs, either.