The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[FootballZombie]

....

 

Not surprising I guess.

Tells us what we already know, just in different format.

 

(QB that takes a bunch of sacks) + (bad Oline) + (bad playcalling that also maximizes opportunity) = Sack amounts the likes of which this world has never known... quite literally. That's not even hyperbole.

 

 

Big picture its almost impressive. That's hard to do. We may never see this again in our lifetimes.

[Conn]

7 hours ago, KDawg said:

None of that data accounts for sacks that didn’t happen because of Howell’s legs, either.

Doesn’t it? Otherwise how is his data showing that Mahomes is a “magician” in the pocket as he calls him in one of his replies? He also specifically shouts out one of Mac Jones’ few strengths being shown in this stat because of the way he spins away from pressure, etc. at times 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Conn said:

Doesn’t it? Otherwise how is his data showing that Mahomes is a “magician” in the pocket as he calls him in one of his replies? He also specifically shouts out one of Mac Jones’ few strengths being shown in this stat because of the way he spins away from pressure, etc. at times 

 

Okay, I'll bite.

 

How does it account for it? Does it just decide "hey, this WOULD have been a sack?"

 

Or how do they even assign blame? I don't like these "stats", personally. Never have. Has nothing to do with Howell. I think they are **** and biased against guys with some pocket mobility who try to move around and make things happen. 

 

While it could be technically true (though I'm not sold on that always, either) it isn't always actually true. 

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Okay, I'll bite.

 

How does it account for it? Does it just decide "hey, this WOULD have been a sack?"

 

Or how do they even assign blame? I don't like these "stats", personally. Never have. Has nothing to do with Howell. I think they are **** and biased against guys with some pocket mobility who try to move around and make things happen. 

 

While it could be technically true (though I'm not sold on that always, either) it isn't always actually true. 

You could be completely right, on a play-by-play basis. Work like this is more about zooming out and looking at trends rather than exactly nailing down responsibilities one very individual play (I think). And the larger the sample size, the more descriptive value it has. The guy even says that due to that margin for error, it’s hard to rank the guys in each tier and especially towards the middle where it gets messy—but being at either extreme more often means something given the abundance of data being poured into it (though it’s admittedly a made up homebrew ****tail of a statistical model, so I agree with your hesitation). 
 

I think the takeaway, if there is one, is that there’s probably not a ton of accuracy comparing one guy on here to another if they’re ranked closely, but that being so far at the end of the spectrum is not good. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Conn said:

You could be completely right, on a play-by-play basis. Work like this is more about zooming out and looking at trends rather than exactly nailing down responsibilities one very individual play (I think). And the larger the sample size, the more descriptive value it has. The guy even says that due to that margin for error, it’s hard to rank the guys in each tier and especially towards the middle where it gets messy—but being at either extreme more often means something given the abundance of data being poured into it (though it’s admittedly a made up homebrew ****tail of a statistical model, so I agree with your hesitation). 
 

I think the takeaway, if there is one, is that there’s probably not a ton of accuracy comparing one guy on here to another if they’re ranked closely, but that being so far at the end of the spectrum is not good. 

I disagree. Being so far at the end of the spectrum can be entirely based on style of play.

 

There are a lot of “scrambling” type QBs in the red and orange and a lot of pocket type QBs in the yellow and green.

 

Of course, there are some things to take away with any stat. Ryan Tannehill, a pocket guy, being where he is… that’s bad.

 

Hurts and Fields being where they are is very good. 
 

Howell being where he is isn’t great. But look at the other guys around him. A lot of them are movers. He’s in the neighborhood he should be expected to be in given his style but he’s at the wrong house. 
 

You also have to account for sample size for all of these guys. This stat means more week 18 than it does now. The Bills game was a major detriment to Howell’s season statistics in literally every way. And it should be. He earned those poor statistics. 
 

This isn’t me saying he doesn’t have fault. He does. And if that is the overall takeaway from this statistical analysis it makes sense. 
 

But these stats don’t exist in a vacuum and you can’t separate variables like they are trying to do. You just can’t. Football is the most symbiotic sport that exists in my opinion. What others do affects you. And yea, that works in reverse for Howell to the OL, too. 
 

My take is Howell is slightly better than he looks at taking stats and the OL is slightly better than they look. The two, together, are rough.

 

With the high emphasis on passing, due to Bienemy liking to do that kind of **** and our defense’s inability to stop anyone, it also puts Howell in a much higher percentage of situations to be sacked. 
 

All of that matters and factors into these conversations. 
 

We have a perfect storm of young QB who never says die to a fault, bad OL, pass heavy play calling factored with the above two and a **** defense that doesn’t help us take any pressure off of the pass calls.
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

Na I expect Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett to eat in the backfield all day long.

 

Doesn't mean we can't win, but we're just gonna have to expect to take 4-5+ sacks every week in all likelihood.

[wit33]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Get them, EB! To the top or nowhere. 

 

Whwre do you fall these days with EB overall and specifically his mentorship and guidance he’s providing Howell? 

[redskinss]

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Na I expect Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett to eat in the backfield all day long.

 

Doesn't mean we can't win, but we're just gonna have to expect to take 4-5+ sacks every week in all likelihood.

If Howell stays healthy and we put up 30 plus points I couldn't care less how many sacks we're giving up.

It's the defense I'm infuriated with at the moment, their utter lack of cohesion is inexcusable. 

 

Another showing like last week and heads had better roll or I'm switching to hockey and basketball mode and fishing on sundays.

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Get them, EB! To the top or nowhere. 

 

Whwre do you fall these days with EB overall and specifically his mentorship and guidance he’s providing Howell? 

 

I liked the hire.  I mostly liked what I've seen.  I don't love Howell playing in garbage time if the idea is 5 step drops and he's getting clocked.  I like Howell but i am worried about how much of a beating his body can withstand.  But I am OK with putting a lot on his plate and passing the ball more.

 

I am not in the camp that some here had from the jump of they should make him HC right away.  I still need to digest him as an offensive coordinator let alone a HC. 

 

The sample sign is still small.   For any player-coach, etc that I like or don't like if its early in the movie, I always want to see more sample size to have some definitive take.

 

22 minutes ago, redskinss said:

If Howell stays healthy and we put up 30 plus points I couldn't care less how many sacks we're giving up.

 

 

I am not worried about sacks in a vaccum.  I am worried about how many hits can ANY QB take.   I believe he's on pace for a record amount of hits. Some of us recall Ramsey getting battered under Spurrier but I believe Howell is on pace to beat that by a good margin.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

Offense needs to get going early too. Everyone killed the defense last week(deservedly so) but the offense opened with back to back three and outs against an awful defense and only managed 3 points in one half. They were almost as much to blame in the first half as the defense.

 

In five first halves so far we've scored: 7, 11, 3, 17, and 3. That's an average of just over 8 points. Unacceptably low.

[Koolblue13]

EB needs to tell EB that his job as a coach isn't to do what players think. He's the adult now and needs to protect guys as well.

[wit33]

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

If Howell stays healthy and we put up 30 plus points I couldn't care less how many sacks we're giving up.

 

The context and circumstances surrounding each sack can vary significantly. It's important to consider these factors when evaluating a quarterback's performance and their ability to handle hits.

 

When a quarterback takes off and runs, they are more exposed to hits because they become a ball carrier. It's a calculated risk that some quarterbacks are willing to take in order to extend plays or gain yards on the ground. I want this in my QB. 
 

Howell reminds me a bit of Brett Favre, tough and fearless playing style. Willing to take hits and continue playing through them, much like a linebacker mentality. While this approach can be exciting and sometimes effective, it does come with a higher risk of injury. If this is how Howell can escape mediocrity or a QB ceiling of 12-25, then bring on the injury risk. 

 

1 hour ago, redskinss said:

It's the defense I'm infuriated with at the moment, their utter lack of cohesion is inexcusable. 

Unreal.
 

Talent, continuity and high character football guys…. Inexcusable! 

 

59 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Offense needs to get going early too. Everyone killed the defense last week(deservedly so) but the offense opened with back to back three and outs against an awful defense and only managed 3 points in one half. They were almost as much to blame in the first half as the defense.

 

In five first halves so far we've scored: 7, 11, 3, 17, and 3. That's an average of just over 8 points. Unacceptably low.

 

Solid point here!
 

I support EB and extremely happy overall with his approach, but must be able to establish some success and even grab momentum early in games. 

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

EB needs to tell EB that his job as a coach isn't to do what players think. He's the adult now and needs to protect guys as well.

 

Protection from what? Does Jacoby Brisset not deserve the same protection if he were to fill in? Howell is an adult as well and can manage playing a few extra snaps in a game.
 

What are we talking about, play the game and keep it moving. 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Protection from what? 

 

 

 

This is why I rarely engage with you.

[wit33]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This is why I rarely engage with you.

We definitely view things from a different lens and point of view, no doubt! 
 

As long as he’s aligned with EB, which it seems they are then all is good. The whole idea of pulling QBs out to not get them hurt is self serving and without much basis. The same people will pay little attention to the starting rookie LB or whoever pounding themselves into the A-gap during a meaningless possession in the 4th quarter. Why not protect that guy or all of them? 

[FootballZombie]

Blowouts are a team stat.

 

You cant get down 21-3, 27-3, or 37-0 without both a D that is giving up points and an O that fails to score them. 

EB has only started well vs Philly. In the other 4 outta 5 games our O is either unproductive for the entirety, or only puts up numbers after we are down 3 scores, pretty much getting what the other team allows. That's not good enough.

 

At least EB knows he's gotta get off to better starts, but the excuse for the double whammy of leaving your QB in and calling an O that still increases the chances said QB gets molly-whopped in a game that is over rings hollow.

 

I need to see a ton of improvement from EB. He has not been good enough so far. He has given me 1 good game thru 5 weeks.

We are hitting blowout territory in the majority of our games. That means we have an unproductive O the majority of our games as well.

[IrepDC]

I need Sam to limit the turnovers in his next stage of development. He has had the throws to learn from. I want him to be smarter with the ball going forward. A 1:1 TD:INT ratio isn't going to cut it, but I understand he's developing. It would be great if that ratio improved before the end of the season.

 

Secondarily, I need to see Sam get better chemistry with #17. McClaurin is a legitimate playmaker and, while I love spreading the ball around, he should be a feature of the offense. This point isn't as critical as the first, but it's a personal preference of mine to utilize a playmaker like #17 more intentionally.

[zCommander]

29 minutes ago, IrepDC said:

Secondarily, I need to see Sam get better chemistry with #17. McClaurin is a legitimate playmaker and, while I love spreading the ball around, he should be a feature of the offense. This point isn't as critical as the first, but it's a personal preference of mine to utilize a playmaker like #17 more intentionally.

 

Chemistry is not the issue here. They mesh well together and when Sam has had the time in the pocket to throw to him he has. Terry is huge deep ball threat but getting sacked kinda takes that away from Sam. Long developing plays with Terry are non-existent right now. The only way Terry can get more touches is if he is your slot receiver or short passing routes. But then the D will sit on that and not worry about the deep stuff. The OL is the issue here and not that Howell doesn't want to throw to Terry. 

 

We all know that TH threw to Terry a lot. He knew his 50/50 balls were going to be caught by Terry because that what Terry does and can do. In 2021 Terry was our only real receiver so he was thrown to a lot by TH. In 2022 we got Dotson but the chemistry wasn't quite there yet with TH but it was for Wentz since Terry was not as available for Wentz (contract negotiations). We have all been used to seeing Terry a lot in the last 2 years. Nothing wrong with seeing more of it. I wouldn't mind it. But I do understand why it might not happen like it used to. 

 

Sam throws to whoever is available with the lack of time he has in the pocket (Sam thew to 11 different players in the Bears game). Also with Logan back on the field that is another target in the middle we really didn't have the last 2 years.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

EB needs to tell EB that his job as a coach isn't to do what players think. He's the adult now and needs to protect guys as well.

EB needs to keep calling games exactly the way he is calling them.  Sam has to get the ball out faster.  And if it's a blowout, Ron needs to get starters out of the game earlier. The OL is what the OL is.  Which isn't good.  Just going to have to live with that for this year.  

 

That said, if Sam was ONLY being sacked or hit when the OL failed, that would be one thing.  The problem is he's getting hit BOTH because he's not processing fast enough AND the OL stinks.  I don't think the second is going to fix itself.  The first can improve.

 

And running the ball isn't going to help a damn if the running game nets 10 yards over 6 carries to start a game.  I am willing to bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in your pockets if they had ANY success running the ball early, EB would have gone back to it.  But they didn't.  They DID have success throwing the ball, so he stuck with it.  

 

The EB hate is ridiculous.  The "run the ball" stuff is ridiculous.  To @KDawg's point, the "throw the ball away" stuff is also ridiculous.  There will be a few plays a game when he gets crunched because the OL is just bad.  There are others he needs to process quickly and get the ball out. Anything over 2.7 seconds, the ball has to be out, unless there's something "special" about the play. (roll-out, play-action, designed mechanism to get more time...)

 

EB is the best coach on this staff and it's not close.  Part of that is because the rest of the coaches aren't good.

 

He implemented one of the toughest offenses in the NFL with a 2nd year QB, which has put up 20, 35, 3, 31 and 20 points. That's REALLY GOOD.  Especially with a 24 year old first time QB and a leaky (at best) OL.  

 

Damn straight they should throw the ball a ton.  They can't run early in games.  They need to establish the pass before the can run.  I know, I know, this is backwards from what literally everybody was taught in the 1980's. But that's the way it is now.  

 

Sam will be ok as long as he continues to progress and speed up processing.  

 

That said, Ron was criminally negligent to leave him, and the rest of the starters, in the Bear's game, when it was completely decided.  Any one of them could have gotten hurt for no reason.  Terry got turf toe in the pre-season. Same thing could happen to anybody in garbage time during a blowout.  That's 100% on Ron.

 

 

23 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Chemistry is not the issue here. They mesh well together and when Sam has had the time in the pocket to throw to him he has. Terry is huge deep ball threat but getting sacked kinda takes that away from Sam. Long developing plays with Terry are non-existent right now. The only way Terry can get more touches is if he is your slot receiver or short passing routes. But then the D will sit on that and not worry about the deep stuff. The OL is the issue here and not that Howell doesn't want to throw to Terry. 

 

We all know that TH threw to Terry a lot. He knew his 50/50 balls were going to be caught by Terry because that what Terry does and can do. In 2021 Terry was our only real receiver so he was thrown to a lot by TH. In 2022 we got Dotson but the chemistry wasn't quite there yet with TH but it was for Wentz since Terry was not as available for Wentz (contract negotiations). We have all been used to seeing Terry a lot in the last 2 years. Nothing wrong with seeing more of it. I wouldn't mind it. But I do understand why it might not happen like it used to. 

 

Sam throws to whoever is available with the lack of time he has in the pocket (Sam thew to 11 different players in the Bears game). Also with Logan back on the field that is another target in the middle we really didn't have the last 2 years.  

This is also part of the defensive philosophy being employed against the Commanders.  Defenses KNOW the OL is shaky at best.  They're loading up the box and bringing pressure.  

 

What does that do?  It has a dual effect of killing the running game and forcing Sam to short or intermediate routes.  This is why Thomas had 11 targets.  

 

This is how the offense is supposed to operate.  You keep hitting the 8-15 yarders, in theory, the defense backs off a bit, and you can go short or run the ball.  Then that opens up things deep.

 

But defenses seem to be willing to just shut down the short and deep stuff, and give up the intermediate stuff and bet Sam can't keep doing it over and over. 

 

The thing is, he is doing it pretty well.  If that keeps up, you're going to see a defense switch it up, and that's going to open up a bunch of things.  

 

But they need to start establishing it from the get go.  

[IrepDC]

34 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Chemistry is not the issue here. They mesh well together and when Sam has had the time in the pocket to throw to him he has. Terry is huge deep ball threat but getting sacked kinda takes that away from Sam. Long developing plays with Terry are non-existent right now. The only way Terry can get more touches is if he is your slot receiver or short passing routes. But then the D will sit on that and not worry about the deep stuff. The OL is the issue here and not that Howell doesn't want to throw to Terry. 

 

We all know that TH threw to Terry a lot. He knew his 50/50 balls were going to be caught by Terry because that what Terry does and can do. In 2021 Terry was our only real receiver so he was thrown to a lot by TH. In 2022 we got Dotson but the chemistry wasn't quite there yet with TH but it was for Wentz since Terry was not as available for Wentz (contract negotiations). We have all been used to seeing Terry a lot in the last 2 years. Nothing wrong with seeing more of it. I wouldn't mind it. But I do understand why it might not happen like it used to. 

 

Sam throws to whoever is available with the lack of time he has in the pocket (Sam thew to 11 different players in the Bears game). Also with Logan back on the field that is another target in the middle we really didn't have the last 2 years.  

Agreed on all points. I admit that these are all factors in #17s usage. Still I wouldn't mind Terry turn into #CantGuardMike Thomas of 3-4 years ago and run slants throughout the game. Play around it with different setups and formations. Isolate Terry and have the slant as a hot route on the backside. Mix in a slant-go or an in-and-out route to keep the defense honest. This is 100 percent me speaking from fandom, mind you. It's just one of my personal preferences that Howell and Terry connect more often. 

[wit33]

22 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

That said, Ron was criminally negligent to leave him, and the rest of the starters, in the Bear's game, when it was completely decided.  Any one of them could have gotten hurt for no reason.  Terry got turf toe in the pre-season. Same thing could happen to anybody in garbage time during a blowout.  That's 100% on Ron.

This isn’t a consensus thought among people who participate in competitive sports or coaches among the NFL. I’d actually say most leave in starters when games are decided.
 

Many of the players have incentives attempting to reach and understand stats are important when at the negotiating table. The motivation for players is often much more nuanced than it is for the fan. 

[goskins10]

17 hours ago, Conn said:

Thought this thread and these exchanges from it were interesting enough to share

 

 

I apprecaite the effort and being an engineer I love numbers. But honestly this has some holes in it and more imporantly it looks like a much more complicated way tog see who has been sacked more. The lists are not exact but they are pretty close. Not sure at all how this shows how much the QB contributes. 

 

No doubt Sam can be his own worst enemy. But he gets a lot of help. He has had some really bad timed drops for guys wide open and the ball right in thier hands. I know that ahppens. 

 

BTW: His QBR has been pretty good except for the Bills where he was atrocious (41.5) and the Cards he was just meh (77.6). The other 3 games? 108.8, 98.6, 99.1.  Not the end all but it's a decent metric. 

 

I am more than Ok with how Sam is developing. He is so not the problem with this team. He may even be the one bright spot. How ironic. LOL

 

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

EB needs to keep calling games exactly the way he is calling them.  Sam has to get the ball out faster.  And if it's a blowout, Ron needs to get starters out of the game earlier. The OL is what the OL is.  Which isn't good.  Just going to have to live with that for this year.  

 

That said, if Sam was ONLY being sacked or hit when the OL failed, that would be one thing.  The problem is he's getting hit BOTH because he's not processing fast enough AND the OL stinks.  I don't think the second is going to fix itself.  The first can improve.

 

And running the ball isn't going to help a damn if the running game nets 10 yards over 6 carries to start a game.  I am willing to bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in your pockets if they had ANY success running the ball early, EB would have gone back to it.  But they didn't.  They DID have success throwing the ball, so he stuck with it.  

 

The EB hate is ridiculous.  The "run the ball" stuff is ridiculous.  To @KDawg's point, the "throw the ball away" stuff is also ridiculous.  There will be a few plays a game when he gets crunched because the OL is just bad.  There are others he needs to process quickly and get the ball out. Anything over 2.7 seconds, the ball has to be out, unless there's something "special" about the play. (roll-out, play-action, designed mechanism to get more time...)

 

EB is the best coach on this staff and it's not close.  Part of that is because the rest of the coaches aren't good.

 

He implemented one of the toughest offenses in the NFL with a 2nd year QB, which has put up 20, 35, 3, 31 and 20 points. That's REALLY GOOD.  Especially with a 24 year old first time QB and a leaky (at best) OL.  

 

Damn straight they should throw the ball a ton.  They can't run early in games.  They need to establish the pass before the can run.  I know, I know, this is backwards from what literally everybody was taught in the 1980's. But that's the way it is now.  

 

Sam will be ok as long as he continues to progress and speed up processing.  

 

That said, Ron was criminally negligent to leave him, and the rest of the starters, in the Bear's game, when it was completely decided.  Any one of them could have gotten hurt for no reason.  Terry got turf toe in the pre-season. Same thing could happen to anybody in garbage time during a blowout.  That's 100% on Ron.

 

 

This is also part of the defensive philosophy being employed against the Commanders.  Defenses KNOW the OL is shaky at best.  They're loading up the box and bringing pressure.  

 

What does that do?  It has a dual effect of killing the running game and forcing Sam to short or intermediate routes.  This is why Thomas had 11 targets.  

 

This is how the offense is supposed to operate.  You keep hitting the 8-15 yarders, in theory, the defense backs off a bit, and you can go short or run the ball.  Then that opens up things deep.

 

But defenses seem to be willing to just shut down the short and deep stuff, and give up the intermediate stuff and bet Sam can't keep doing it over and over. 

 

The thing is, he is doing it pretty well.  If that keeps up, you're going to see a defense switch it up, and that's going to open up a bunch of things.  

 

But they need to start establishing it from the get go.  

How do you know EB is any good? His offense is the one getting 10 yards on 6 carries.

 

His play calling adds to the hits and saying that doesn't mean Howell doesn't add to it.

 

Why should Ron be the one to pull players? It's EBs offense.

 

The dismissal of any accountability at all when it comes to EB is so annoying.

 

There is a reason only one HC would employ him and nobody will make him a HC and it's not because he is too good.

 

The new EB Hivers are ridiculous. Complete lack of any accountability.

 

EB= Excuse Believers. It's everyone else fault.

[Voice_of_Reason]

33 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

How do you know EB is any good? His offense is the one getting 10 yards on 6 carries.

 

His play calling adds to the hits and saying that doesn't mean Howell doesn't add to it.

 

Why should Ron be the one to pull players? It's EBs offense.

 

The dismissal of any accountability at all when it comes to EB is so annoying.

 

There is a reason only one HC would employ him and nobody will make him a HC and it's not because he is too good.

 

The new EB Hivers are ridiculous. Complete lack of any accountability.

 

EB= Excuse Believers. It's everyone else fault.

You’re just bitter about the SB.  
 

It’s an odd hill to die on.  But ok.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason