The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Redskins 2021]

Remember when ownership change Washington DC is a place players will want to play. We may attract better player once Snyder gone.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think guys are playing harder with Heinicke. That's kind of insulting and disrespectful to what I feel is a pretty damn good locker room.

 

I think Heinicke's ability to keep a play or two alive to extend drives is huge. Even if its just one sack or negative play that turns into a neutral or positive play, that can be the difference between a drive ending in 0 points or 3 points(or even 6+). And that can be the difference between a win and a loss. 

The counter to this is they’ve lost what Wentz did bring to the offense and was on display early in the season before the OL turned into a group of turnstiles at the NYC metro: they could score from anywhere on the field.

 

The play that keeps standing out is the long pass to Terry, I think it was against Detroit, where Wentz hit him in the “honey hole” between the CB and the safety and he took it to the house for 40+ yards.  
 

Hienicke cannot make that throw.  Every time he tries it’s short and late and turns into a contested jump ball situation which is unintended and unnecessary. And by my count he’s out 3 players in the blue tent attempting that throw.

 

So what TH gives you in escapability, he gives up in the ability to stretch the field.

 

Ideally you have a QB who can do both.  
 

Behind this OL, I might take escapability.  But honestly, if you’re going to run the ball 40-50 times a game, either could probably work.  And hell, Howell might be competent as well.  

 

 

[Bifflog]

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

And hell, Howell might be competent as well. 

 

I know I am curious what he'd look like back there as a decision-maker.

[Zim489]

42 minutes ago, tshile said:

Nonsense. The draft is full of QBs. And it’s more important you put them in a solid situation with great receivers, running backs, and a top 5 defense, than it is what the draft pick # is. 
 

we’re in a great spot to throw a mid round pick in the first second round at a guy if we like him and see what happens. 

The odds of a non first rounder being good is beyond terrible. It’s a waste of a pick 

[Voice_of_Reason]

20 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

The odds of a non first rounder being good is beyond terrible. It’s a waste of a pick 

I’m not sure Id go so far as to say it’s a waste of a pick.  But if you’re picking a QB in the second through 4th rounds, 2 things you have to keep in mind: (5th plus, you’re hoping all of those guys just make the team twice.  If you get more, total bonus.)

 

1. You probably just picked a cheap backup for 4 years as the most likely scenario.

 

2. It should not in any way change what you do in future drafts. So picking a QB in the first the next year is still completely on the table unless the QB plays and exceeds expectations.  

23 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

The odds of a non first rounder being good is beyond terrible. It’s a waste of a pick 

And 

 

[Conn]

People have had nightmares about this scenario, I’m sure of it:

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Conn

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 months ago it was pointed out that Wentz ended the final stretch of games in Indy with mediocre stats. In 6 of his last 8 games in Indy, he threw for 180 yards or less, and had 5 total TDs in those 6 games. The rationalizations given last Spring in defense of Wentz? It's hard to accumulate stats when the head coach insists on running the ball so much.

 

The football gods must absolutely love irony lol:

 

Wentz in Indy

- Threw more than 29 attempts once in those 6 games and threw 5 TDs

Heinicke

- Threw more than 29 attempts twice in his last 5 games and has thrown 5 TDs

 

Wentz

- Threw for 180 yds or less in all 6 of those games

Heinicke

- Threw for 180 yds or less 1 time in his last 5 games

 

Wentz

- In several of those 6 games the Colts had significantly more rush attempts than pass attempts (not including QB runs)

- The most lopsided run/pass ratio in those games: 43 rushing attempts to only 20 pass attempts (they won)

Heinicke

- In several of his last 5 games the Commanders had significantly more rush attempts than pass attempts (not including QB runs)

-The most lopsided run/pass ratio in those games: 44 rushing attempts to only 29 pass attempts (they won)

 

Wentz

- Colts went 4-2 in those games

Heinicke

- Commanders have gone 4-1 in those games

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[CapsSkins]

Justin Herbert just threw a ball to lose the game on SNF that people on this board would crucify Heinicke for. Neither here nor there, just saying, even the best make boneheaded decisions at times.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

TH got me 5 points last week and 7 this week. 
 

I’m keenly aware of how bad his stats are 😂 

 

That is some serious fantasy football racoon **** right there 

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think its just coincidental that the team is playing better at the time Heinicke took over as the starter. In the Rivera Era though we seem to always hit our stride around November. 

Maybe, maybe not. I don’t why the team is playing better under Taylor. Doing just enough to win.

 

If Carson doesn’t get injured, does anyone think we wink would be 6-5 right now?

[88Comrade2000]

7 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Back when Tim Tebow was starting for Denver people would argued should he start or should he not start. He was ok but Denver made a huge move after that season. Heinike is similar he is ok but not great. 

 

I am hoping we do what they did in denver when new ownership comes in we get a Peyton Manning type and end this qb problem.We need to hit big to end this. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, in 2024. The ownership change likely not happening in time to do anything in 23.

[88Comrade2000]

4 hours ago, tshile said:

Nonsense. The draft is full of QBs. And it’s more important you put them in a solid situation with great receivers, running backs, and a top 5 defense, than it is what the draft pick # is. 
 

we’re in a great spot to throw a mid round pick in the first second round at a guy if we like him and see what happens. 

I wouldn’t trust Ron to find the long term qb.

 

I fully expect the new owner to move on from Ron in 24. His new Gm will likely overhaul the roster to suit the Ron’s successor. So, unless the qb is another Russell Wilson; I’d expect us to dip Into the qb well in 24, even if we draft a qb in 23. I doubt there will be any so called franchise qbs when we draft.

[Thinking Skins]

5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

They weee 3-13 on third down and TH was 2 for 9 passing on 3rd down and one of those 2 completions didn’t result in a 1st down.

 

He doesn’t have the ability to keep drives alive.  When they convert a high percentage of 3rd downs it’s because they run a lot in third and short.  
 

You’re confusing correlation with causation. 
 

The offense is looking more success because they run the ball more than pass, and they are playing good defense. 
 

TH makes a few plays a game.  He made several last week.  
 

Bur let’s not confuse what’s driving the success to who’s benefiting from the success. 
 

And again, with the team winning, you don’t make a change.  But that doesn’t change anything about TH. 

Third down conversions is not the only thing that matters. We put together 15 play drives in how many games under Heinicke? That counts. To do those things it takes discipline. It's not getting sacked, not having turnovers, not getting penalties, getting positive yards, etc. Yeah third  downs aren't always great and that's ultimately why drives stall. I can't find the stat but what I'm looking for is yards per drive under each QB. 

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Third down conversions is not the only thing that matters. We put together 15 play drives in how many games under Heinicke? That counts. To do those things it takes discipline. It's not getting sacked, not having turnovers, not getting penalties, getting positive yards, etc. Yeah third  downs aren't always great and that's ultimately why drives stall. I can't find the stat but what I'm looking for is yards per drive under each QB. 

And the obvious thing is that Heinicke targets Terry. That's something that we laugh about but the jump balls and trust in Terry is something that Carson didn't have. With Smith, it was all AP helping us move the ball down the field with a little help elsewhere.

[Thinking Skins]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I wouldn’t trust Ron to find the long term qb.

 

I fully expect the new owner to move on from Ron in 24. His new Gm will likely overhaul the roster to suit the Ron’s successor. So, unless the qb is another Russell Wilson; I’d expect us to dip Into the qb well in 24, even if we draft a qb in 23. I doubt there will be any so called franchise qbs when we draft.

I don't think he gets another chance to find a QB. I think it's Heinicke and Howell. But I think Ron may get an extension with new owners. If his resume shows him winning this season with all this crap going on. I think it's a good thing for him. Maybe we go into the abyss with a new coach but I don't think it's a given. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

I love on Twitter how some fans are claiming that since Heinicke went 2 games without throwing a TD pass and we still won, it shows the team is simply lucky because that doesn't happen on teams that are actually good lol...like it's some rare fluke occurrence or something.

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think guys are playing harder with Heinicke. That's kind of insulting and disrespectful to what I feel is a pretty damn good locker room.

 

I think Heinicke's ability to keep a play or two alive to extend drives is huge. Even if its just one sack or negative play that turns into a neutral or positive play, that can be the difference between a drive ending in 0 points or 3 points(or even 6+). And that can be the difference between a win and a loss. 

So it’s not an inherent thing. It’s a mentality or a mindset. Teams generally take on the personality of their signal caller. They aren’t looking at Wentz and saying, “nope. Not going to catch the ball for him”. It’s just something that happens on a football field that can’t be explained with numbers or formulas of PFF grades. 
 

Wentz is a more timid, hard on himself, player. Because of that, players see him in a certain light. Easy to rattle. Not a gamer. Not “dirty”. Not “nasty”.

 

Heinicke is a gritty guy who is humble and knows exactly who and what he is. He doesn’t get rattled. 
 

The persona of the offense has shifted this year from a finesse style with Wentz (Jags game) to a “dirty, nasty” mentality with Heinicke.

 

It’s a mindset.

 

Alex Smith won, too. He wasn’t great statistically, but he won. I’m not going to sit here and sell Smith as a guy that should have kept being the QB after he came back just because they found some success. But his mentality carried over to the mentality of the team. And they won more than they lost because of it. 
 

Same with Heinicke. It’s tough to really describe to people but it’s a real thing at all levels of football (where the signal caller isn’t just standing there to hand off, anyways).

 

I’m still not on the Heinicke is the guy bandwagon. This team needs better QB play asap. But until the team has a guy in hand that they think the team will rally around (*cough*samhowell*cough*) there is something to the moxie factor as annoying as it is at times. Heinicke’s a gamer. Cannot take that from him.

[Est.1974]

I think Wentz would have benefited by forming a stronger bond with Terry Mc, there is definitely something in the Heinicke/Terry Mc bond that is having a massive impact in the lockerroom, IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

So it’s not an inherent thing. It’s a mentality or a mindset. Teams generally take on the personality of their signal caller. They aren’t looking at Wentz and saying, “nope. Not going to catch the ball for him”. It’s just something that happens on a football field that can’t be explained with numbers or formulas of PFF grades. 
 

Wentz is a more timid, hard on himself, player. Because of that, players see him in a certain light. Easy to rattle. Not a gamer. Not “dirty”. Not “nasty”.

 

Heinicke is a gritty guy who is humble and knows exactly who and what he is. He doesn’t get rattled. 
 

The persona of the offense has shifted this year from a finesse style with Wentz (Jags game) to a “dirty, nasty” mentality with Heinicke.

 

It’s a mindset.

 

Alex Smith won, too. He wasn’t great statistically, but he won. I’m not going to sit here and sell Smith as a guy that should have kept being the QB after he came back just because they found some success. But his mentality carried over to the mentality of the team. And they won more than they lost because of it. 
 

Same with Heinicke. It’s tough to really describe to people but it’s a real thing at all levels of football (where the signal caller isn’t just standing there to hand off, anyways).

 

I’m still not on the Heinicke is the guy bandwagon. This team needs better QB play asap. But until the team has a guy in hand that they think the team will rally around (*cough*samhowell*cough*) there is something to the moxie factor as annoying as it is at times. Heinicke’s a gamer. Cannot take that from him.

 

It's a really good description.  I am not a Heinicke guy either.  But as I mentioned in game 1 when Heinicke was back, he plays with a palpable easy to see pep in his step and oomph that you don't see from Wentz.  Wentz looks flat stylistically.

 

the other 2 things that might help Alex and Heinicke that they have in common.

 

A.  they both apparently are VERY social in the locker room and teaamtes like them as friends.

 

B.  Jay Gruden stresses this point.  Just knowing the playbook inside and out is a big deal.  It wasn't hard to tell Jay didn't love Alex's style of play but he loved that he knew where every player needed to be lined up, the execution of plays weren't screwed up.  Taylor apparently knows the playbook inside and out.  And Wentz apparently did not.

 

Both guys seemed out gunned in shoot outs and there was a serious ceiling on both QBs but they both shone compared to the alternative on the roster at the time.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

7 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

Justin Herbert just threw a ball to lose the game on SNF that people on this board would crucify Heinicke for. Neither here nor there, just saying, even the best make boneheaded decisions at times.

Josh Allen just did it last week against the Vikings.  They all do it.

 

But it’s a fact that TH throws among the most turnover worthy balls in the NFL.  I know this sounds like I’m being a dick but I’m serious, his ducks land so soft I think it catches defenders off guard and they drop them.  It happens often, not just this season but last year as well.  The ball will be floating for an hour in the sky, drop directly into the defenders hands and they drop it.

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Third down conversions is not the only thing that matters. We put together 15 play drives in how many games under Heinicke? That counts. To do those things it takes discipline. It's not getting sacked, not having turnovers, not getting penalties, getting positive yards, etc. Yeah third  downs aren't always great and that's ultimately why drives stall. I can't find the stat but what I'm looking for is yards per drive under each QB. 

Do you watch us play?

 

It’s because Turner stays committed to the run and doesn’t get pass happy when we get stuffed for a yard or two.  Penalties are also down because we aren’t dropping back as much, as you see more holds called on passes than runs.  
 

If Heinicke could wing it, I don’t think we’d see this patient and plodding playcalling from Turner. Heinicke’s inability to stretch the field is just what the doctor ordered for Turner to appear competent.

[Est.1974]

Yep, there is a reason we scouted half the QBs on the planet during the offseason. TH isn’t viewed as being the #1 guy we need moving forward. Got to admire the way he goes about things though. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Zim489 said:

The odds of a non first rounder being good is beyond terrible. It’s a waste of a pick 

 

I don't know about waste of pick, depends IMO on context.  But generally yeah you are going lotto after the first round.  

 

I am tried of 2nd tier QBs taken in the first round.  The bust rate over 75% for QBs picked from 21-32 and that could be the range we pick again.  Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell, Haskins (RIP) dudes that plenty at the time said should be 2nd or 3rd rounders yet we took them early because heck often QBs tend to go early.  Last season was a weird exception.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/qb-success-rate-by-draft-position-2021-nfl-draft/

 

 

21-32

13

3

10

31.3

76.9%

 

ROUND	NO.	PRO BOWL QBS	HIT RATE
2	22	3	13.6%
3-4	56	6	10.7%
5-7	122	5	4.1%

Edited November 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

9 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Yep, there is a reason we scouted half the QBs on the planet during the offseason. TH isn’t viewed as being the #1 guy we need moving forward. Got to admire the way he goes about things though. 

 

Yea, this exactly.

 

It's pretty clear Taylor is keeping the job the remainder of 2022.

 

What I'm not seeing is any language about what this means for his future here because they did try to replace him two offseasons in a row.

 

It really depends on how the season plays out...I really don't see Wentz back here in 2023 unless the plan is to let Taylor walk in the offseason.

 

At this point, I almost don't even want to think about this offseason because it has all the makings for a very ugly one at the most important position on the roster.  Expect everyone to be pissed for different reasons, Taylor will be 30 the start of camp next year, you can't "develop" a 30 year old QB, he is who he is.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Renegade7

[Est.1974]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

Yea, this exactly.

 

It's pretty clear Taylor is keeping the job the remainder of 2022.

 

What I'm not seeing is any language about what this means for his future here because they did to replace him two offseasons in a row.

 

It really depends on how the season plays out...I really don't see Wentz back here in 2023 unless the plan is to let Taylor walk in the offseason.

 

At this point, I almost don't even want to think about this offseason because it has all the makings for a very ugly one at the most important position on the roster.  Expect everyone to be pissed for different reasons, Taylor will be 30 the start of camp next year, you can't "develop" a 30 year old QB, he is who he is.

It’s a shame we aren’t sure what we have in Howell yet. Rivera was very hot on him post draft, a home run selection I think he said. Highly unlikely to see him being the answer, but who knows I guess. I also think Wentz is done, especially at 20mil plus.

 

I would say, and this is almost nailed on for me, new ownership will make a significant investment at QB. Offseason 2023 may well be a season too soon to get that done. I would not discount it though.

[DJHJR86]

17 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

It’s a shame we aren’t sure what we have in Howell yet.

 

The fact that they are going to make him inactive once Wentz is healthy should tell you all you need to know about Howell at this point.