The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[NoCalMike]

6 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I'm not surprised because Wentz has by far a much better arm and can make throws that Heinicke simply can't.

 

That said, there's more to the position than that. If we could take Heinicke's brain and put it in Wentz's body, we'd be golden. Unfortunately, we can't. So we're stuck with Noodle Arm Moxie Man and the No Touch Statue for the rest of the season. NAMM gives us the best chance to succeed this year and we can get out of NTS's contract in the offseason, leaving us to wander the desert for a top-16 QB once again. 

 

Now see, if they were running a dynamic offense under Heinicke, I might be willing to agree, but if Heinicke can hand the ball off 45 times a game, then so can Wentz.  The question then is that on the limited pass attempts are you getting the most out of them to keep a defense on it's toes and.....what happens when you run into a defense that stops the run well enough to put you in 3rd and longs on a consistent basis.  It's not that Heinicke came in and "ran the offense better" than Wentz, it's that the entire scheme changed to become a run heavy time of possession operaiton because they aren't scoring very many points so they need to keep the opponent off the field.  If they hypothetically brought Wentz back, you don't even need to revert back to the cutesy-pass happy offense they were running prior. 

[Skinsfan1311]

1 minute ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Now see, if they were running a dynamic offense under Heinicke, I might be willing to agree, but if Heinicke can hand the ball off 45 times a game, then so can Wentz.  The question then is that on the limited pass attempts are you getting the most out of them to keep a defense on it's toes and.....what happens when you run into a defense that stops the run well enough to put you in 3rd and longs on a consistent basis.  It's not that Heinicke came in and "ran the offense better" than Wentz, it's that the entire scheme changed to become a run heavy time of possession operaiton because they aren't scoring very many points so they need to keep the opponent off the field.  If they hypothetically brought Wentz back, you don't even need to revert back to the cutesy-pass happy offense they were running prior. 

They'll never be a dynamic offense as long as Scott Turner is calling the plays.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Skinsfan1311
err....misspelled "offense"

[NoCalMike]

4 minutes ago, Skinsfan1311 said:

They'll never be a dynamic offense as long as Scott Turner is calling the plays.

 

Ha. Fair point there.  I guess Scott Turner *thinks* his offense can be dynamic.

[CapsSkins]

2 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Now see, if they were running a dynamic offense under Heinicke, I might be willing to agree, but if Heinicke can hand the ball off 45 times a game, then so can Wentz.  The question then is that on the limited pass attempts are you getting the most out of them to keep a defense on it's toes and.....what happens when you run into a defense that stops the run well enough to put you in 3rd and longs on a consistent basis.  It's not that Heinicke came in and "ran the offense better" than Wentz, it's that the entire scheme changed to become a run heavy time of possession operaiton because they aren't scoring very many points so they need to keep the opponent off the field.  If they hypothetically brought Wentz back, you don't even need to revert back to the cutesy-pass happy offense they were running prior. 

 

I think there's truth here and I considered it myself. But the reason I disagree is that net net I think Heinicke has better and quicker decision-making than Wentz. If Wentz has just a couple seconds to make the right decision on where to throw the ball, I think he will struggle. Yes, he'll throw some bombs to Dotson that Heinicke could only dream of. But if the gameplan is running the ball and converting 3rd-and-short, I give the edge to Heinicke in terms of quickly deciding where to go with the ball and getting it there.

 

That said, I actually do think it's pretty close. If not for the 70% of snaps thing, I'd think pretty hard about getting Wentz back in there once he's good to go. I do think he got a raw deal with the O-Line at the beginning of the year and the defense not playing as well either. There's also the team chemistry / momentum aspect to consider as well. 

[Skinsfan1311]

4 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I There's also the team chemistry / momentum aspect to consider as well. 

This.

[gbear]

Maybe it's me, but i think the run game is better with Heinicke.  I think he does more to hide where the ball is in the handoffs, and because he is a threat to run it, he creates a moments hesitation for the D which allows the entire plays to work just a smidge better.  The thing is, that smidge is the difference between 3 yards with a cloud of dust and a 1 yard gain.  Those differences change third and short to third and long.  We are winning converting third and shorts.  We were losing when consistently forced into third and long with an OL that can't give time for plays to develop down field.  Given that we can't give time for many plays to develop down field, I put less emphasis on our QB's ability to throw the long ball.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I just don’t see a world where this team loses on Sunday to Davis Mills, even if Heinicke has another 17/29 0tds and 2 turnover game.

 

But let’s say it’s more of the same and the next 2 - ATL and NYG are losses, rather than wins.  The team heads into the bye week, 6-7, with with a much different attitude than the one they have now.

 

What do you do if you are Ron?  Technically, the season isn’t over.  They could run off 4 straight and guarantee their way in, or maybe lose one and still make it.

 

Do you go back to the Heinicke well and try to keep drawing water with 50 run attempts per game and pray games don’t require he throw it in the cold?

 

Or do you look back to Wentz, and risk looking like a donk and everyone telling him I told you so if he’s not good?

 

I’m assuming Howell is not an option with meat still left on the seasons bone.

 

This is the scenario I can’t get away from when playing out the future of this season.

 

 

 

 

[CapsSkins]

7 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I just don’t see a world where this team loses on Sunday to Davis Mills, even if Heinicke has another 17/29 0tds and 2 turnover game.

 

But let’s say it’s more of the same and the next 2 - ATL and NYG are losses, rather than wins.  The team heads into the bye week, 6-7, with with a much different attitude than the one they have now.

 

What do you do if you are Ron?  Technically, the season isn’t over.  They could run off 4 straight and guarantee their way in, or maybe lose one and still make it.

 

Do you go back to the Heinicke well and try to keep drawing water with 50 run attempts per game and pray games don’t require he throw it in the cold?

 

Or do you look back to Wentz, and risk looking like a donk and everyone telling him I told you so if he’s not good?

 

I’m assuming Howell is not an option with meat still left on the seasons bone.

 

This is the scenario I can’t get away from when playing out the future of this season.

 

 

 

 

 

In this scenario, where Heinicke has played 7 games (>30% of season's snaps) and we're a longshot bubble team with Heinicke heading into the bye after back-to-back losses, I go back to Wentz and see whether he looks appreciably better than his first 6 games and worth bringing back at a lower price tag next year.

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by CapsSkins

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

 

In this scenario, where Heinicke has played 7 games (>70% of season's snaps) and we're a longshot bubble team with Heinicke heading into the bye after back-to-back losses, I go back to Wentz and see whether he looks appreciably better than his first 6 games and worth bringing back at a lower price tag next year.

The 70% # being out of the way, definitely makes the decision easier to make, but still not easy for Ron.  Particularly if he proclaims this is Taylor’s team, as is expected.

 

I’m confident he can read his locker room, but it’s a tough call to make to go away from a guy you said just a few weeks prior that it was his team.  For Ron it’s likely a no-win situation, aside from the very small chance Carson makes good on a chance at redemption.

[CapsSkins]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The 70% # being out of the way, definitely makes the decision easier to make, but still not easy for Ron.  Particularly if he proclaims this is Taylor’s team, as is expected.

 

I’m confident he can read his locker room, but it’s a tough call to make to go away from a guy you said just a few weeks prior that it was his team.  For Ron it’s likely a no-win situation, aside from the very small chance Carson makes good on a chance at redemption.

 

Yeah I hear you. But back to back losses and the bye would give Ron enough cover IMO.

 

I feel like in that scenario they need to see what they have in Wentz with B Rob and an improved O Line. There is time to evaluate Howell and we know he'll be back next year. I am sure the team will look for upgrades via FA/trade and the draft, but they'll want a baseline POV on "Wentz at $10M" to understand how to rank the options, especially when there are big decisions looming like Daron Payne.   

[NoCalMike]

19 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I just don’t see a world where this team loses on Sunday to Davis Mills, even if Heinicke has another 17/29 0tds and 2 turnover game.

 

But let’s say it’s more of the same and the next 2 - ATL and NYG are losses, rather than wins.  The team heads into the bye week, 6-7, with with a much different attitude than the one they have now.

 

What do you do if you are Ron?  Technically, the season isn’t over.  They could run off 4 straight and guarantee their way in, or maybe lose one and still make it.

 

Do you go back to the Heinicke well and try to keep drawing water with 50 run attempts per game and pray games don’t require he throw it in the cold?

 

Or do you look back to Wentz, and risk looking like a donk and everyone telling him I told you so if he’s not good?

 

I’m assuming Howell is not an option with meat still left on the seasons bone.

 

This is the scenario I can’t get away from when playing out the future of this season.

 

 

 

 

 

I think Heinicke is very capable of winning against the Texans & Falcons.  For me, when it comes to Heinicke the main thing I look for is if his actual play improves against the lesser teams. When we get into the debate about Heinicke I think there is his indivual performance vs the team results. Sometimes you are going to win games as a team despite poor and/or mediocre performances from some of it's players.

 

I don't really want to see Turner deviate from the heavy running scheme until an opponent proves they can force us off of that, however I also remain concerned at how many drives stall around the 20-30 yard line with Heinicke as the QB.  Is there anything about the Texans that indicate it should be another 17-14 buzzer beater type game?  I think the defense is going to do it's job and hold the Texans to a low amount of points, but is it too much to ask for maybe 28 points against a 1 win team?  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Yeah I hear you. But back to back losses and the bye would give Ron enough cover IMO.

 

I feel like in that scenario they need to see what they have in Wentz with B Rob and an improved O Line. 

Fair enough.  Taylor was all the rage at one point  last season as well and as time went on the fanfare from the locker room appeared to fade to a large degree.  That could happen again if they lose two in a row.

 

It wouldn’t be the end of the world to see what’s left in Wentz considering they paid him $28M and have no starter lined up for next season.

 

But here’s the next and most likely scenario in my mind, this team wins the next two and loses against NYG, heading into the bye at 7-6, a little down due to losing a division game but still believing in Taylor.

 

Wheels fall entirely off in December, and we get meaningless games with Wentz for them to gauge the next move with him. 

 

 

[HigSkin]

3 hours ago, HigSkin said:

If anybody is interested Kurt Warner is coming on NFLN at 1pm segment to discuss who should be the starting QB in Washington.

 

Not much here but this is what Warner said -

 

Warner said very tough decision, if you looked at the tape player to player, game to game you probably chose Wentz.  However, the spark that TH provides, how he plays in the moment everybody (team) believes he is going to make the needed play. 

[NoCalMike]

15 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Fair enough.  Taylor was all the rage at one point  last season as well and as time went on the fanfare from the locker room appeared to fade to a large degree.  That could happen again if they lose two in a row.

 

It wouldn’t be the end of the world to see what’s left in Wentz considering they paid him $28M and have no starter lined up for next season.

 

But here’s the next and most likely scenario in my mind, this team wins the next two and loses against NYG, heading into the bye at 7-6, a little down due to losing a division game but still believing in Taylor.

 

Wheels fall entirely off in December, and we get meaningless games with Wentz for them to gauge the next move with him. 

 

 

 

Right? And I don't want to downplay Heinicke as a person or how the locker room enjoys his heart on the field, but I mean let's be real, it is a typical underdog story that I think most locker rooms would rally behind in a similar situation.  I don't think this is the locker room saying Heinicke should be the starter so much as them just being happy about Heinicke having some success as the underdog back up QB.  

Edited November 16, 2022 by NoCalMike

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

11 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I think Heinicke is very capable of winning against the Texans & Falcons.  For me, when it comes to Heinicke the main thing I look for is if his actual play improves against the lesser teams. When we get into the debate about Heinicke I think there is his indivual performance vs the team results. Sometimes you are going to win games as a team despite poor and/or mediocre performances from some of it's players.

 

I don't really want to see Turner deviate from the heavy running scheme until an opponent proves they can force us off of that, however I also remain concerned at how many drives stall around the 20-30 yard line with Heinicke as the QB.  Is there anything about the Texans that indicate it should be another 17-14 buzzer beater type game?  I think the defense is going to do it's job and hold the Texans to a low amount of points, but is it too much to ask for maybe 28 points against a 1 win team?  

I don’t expect Turner to deviate from what’s working as the approach has been very deliberate to this point.  The only way that changes is if for whatever reason the defense takes a nosedive and they are forced to throw it.  I just don’t see that as likely, at least not against the next two opponents.  That said, I think 28 points is a high # to expect even against bad teams.  The field shrinks in and near the red zone which is a detriment for a QB with limited ball placement ability.  

[NoCalMike]

13 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

  The field shrinks in and near the red zone which is a detriment for a QB with limited ball placement ability.  

 

Oh I agree which is why I tend to think Wentz should be taking back over if he is healthy because I sort of think it would be beneficiary to him and the team if he comes back against a lesser team for a week or two in order to get re-acclimated.   He was new to this offense and it showed early on.  There has already been stories about Wentz being able to learn some nuances about the designs of the plays from watching from the sidelines.  Would it translate on the field?  We don't know, but maybe it is better to find out against the Texans & Falcons then the better teams later on.

[FLSkinz83]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I just don’t see a world where this team loses on Sunday to Davis Mills, even if Heinicke has another 17/29 0tds and 2 turnover game.

 

But let’s say it’s more of the same and the next 2 - ATL and NYG are losses, rather than wins.  The team heads into the bye week, 6-7, with with a much different attitude than the one they have now.

 

What do you do if you are Ron?  Technically, the season isn’t over.  They could run off 4 straight and guarantee their way in, or maybe lose one and still make it.

 

Do you go back to the Heinicke well and try to keep drawing water with 50 run attempts per game and pray games don’t require he throw it in the cold?

 

Or do you look back to Wentz, and risk looking like a donk and everyone telling him I told you so if he’s not good?

 

I’m assuming Howell is not an option with meat still left on the seasons bone.

 

This is the scenario I can’t get away from when playing out the future of this season.

 

 

 

 

 

I honestly don't see Wentz as an option the rest of the year.  Ride it out with TH unless the team is eliminated and then go to Howell for the final few games.

 

Wentz strength is the ability to make all the throws.  We can't pass protect long enough for those shots downfield. 

 

I wouldn't be against bringing back Wentz next year at a lower salary; with incentives.    I think he's shown this year in games where the protection was adequate, he can play well.

 

 

[DJHJR86]

2 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

Yet somehow as a passer his stats were largely better than Heinicke's and showed some things in those games we haven't seen being a part of the offense since he got injured.

 

Wentz had 2 more touchdowns, 1 more turnover, 8 more sacks, an 82.3 passer rating to an 82.7 rating from Heinicke in his first four starts.  There wasn't some magical drop off in performance here.  

[Dont Taze Me Bro]

4 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

I have to believe that if Wentz (fully healthy) is benched for Heinicke, he is done in DC period.  Not sure how you say Heinicke is the better option for a run at a wild card spot, but hey Carson, we will see you back here in 2023.   You either think Wentz is the guy to get the job done or not, and if not, then the search goes on for a starting QB in the offseason.

 

There is no reason to keep Wentz past this season at all imo.  We can cut him with no cap penalty after this year.  And I think we absolutely go with the hot hand regardless if he's fully healthy.  Not saying Taylor is the future at all, he's not, he's a back-up QB playing well enough to keep starting until we are officially eliminated from the playoffs, then put in Howell the rest of the games (however many that is).

 

Wentz is 2-4 starting, Taylor is 3-1, stick with the hot hand.  It would be different if Wentz was 4-2 or 5-1, then went out for four games and we were sitting at 7-3 or 8-2.  We should be able to beat Houston, Atlanta and at least split with the Giants (would put us at 8-6).  San Fran is a toss-up, we can beat Cleveland and Dallas is beatable imo. 

 

It's very possible to finish 9-8 or 10-7 and snag a wildcard spot.  I wouldn't have said that weeks ago, but right now it isn't too far fetched.  

[Renegade7]

16 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Wentz had 2 more touchdowns, 1 more turnover, 8 more sacks, an 82.3 passer rating to an 82.7 rating from Heinicke in his first four starts.  There wasn't some magical drop off in performance here.  

 

ESPN and CBS both show Wentz with a higher rating then Taylor and a near 40 ypg difference in passing. 

 

The most noticible drop off is in passing yards per game, and this is with Taylor seemingly depending on at least on bomb per game jus to break 200.

 

Plenty of points to why Taylor should start instead, so no need to cherry pick stats to make more.

[Captain James]

Do you know what kind of pressure would be on Wentz if he plays again? I can't imagine how heavy it would be. I vote to continue battling forward with TH until he either implodes or loses the team.

[mistertim]

22 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Wentz had 2 more touchdowns, 1 more turnover, 8 more sacks, an 82.3 passer rating to an 82.7 rating from Heinicke in his first four starts.  There wasn't some magical drop off in performance here.  

 

I think the point is that, despite Heinicke being involved in more wins, his stats aren't any better (actually his TD:INT ratio is worse) than Wentz. Wentz wasn't good, but it's not like Heinicke came in and started tearing the place up.

 

At the end of the day I think Heinicke is who he has been. Good backup with a poor arm. Limit his downfield attempts and run the ball successfully, and you can win with him. He knows the playbook, has some escapability, and the guys like him.

 

I'd start him for now and see how he plays for the next couple of games. But it sounds like Ron has basically said that if he names a starter now, it's going to be the starter for the rest of the season. So then it all depends on whether they think they've seen enough of Wentz or if they still think he can be the guy. Because if you put TH out there for the rest of the season, you basically are ending the team's relationship with Wentz most likely and he won't be back next season.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

[mistertim]

I wonder if their plan is to keep Wentz out because he's "not 100% yet" so they can see how TH plays over the next game or two. Basically use the medical excuse to delay their final decision.

[oraphus]

The answer is you play them BOTH. Heineke as a wildcat qb and Wentz as a deep passer in games they are behind as a 60/40 split. It has worked wonders for New Orleans! 

 

 

 

 

 

... I am joking of-course.