The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Apparently Daniels' agent liked and reposted a tweet saying they are unhappy with the process Washington used the other night...

 

For some reason I suspect you weren't on the forum Wednesday night. 😃

I was. But this thread adds 500 pages per day it seems. Sorry I missed it. Carry on.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Your first mistake is taking any of these scout takes seriously.

 

Could be some random guy that gets scouts coffee... could be a smoke screen... could be honest... could be a lot of things. But these stupid "scouts said..." takes should be ignored. Every time. 

Why do you think I flush all the mechanics and footwork ---- down the toilet? You can also tell when reading the takes, which people are just looking at clips from 2023, it's patently obvious. Far too many of these guys simply look at last season, which is just, utterly bizarre to me. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's not that simple. I don't have some big board in my basement that I believe draft after draft is better than the pro's boards, I don't scout hundreds of linebackers, edge rushers, DT's, and Centers etc. I'm not remotely close to that.

 

But I'm also smart enough to know that drafting Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel from FSU last decade was rage enducingly stupid. That the Trubisky love was idiotic, that Zach Wilson and Pickett were monstrously stupid picks.

 

You do not have to be a genius to understand when GM's and scouts get lost in the trees and make stupid decisions. If you have distance from this, watch long enough, read long enough, analyze data enough you can sniff out stupid pretty easily.

 

There was no universe in which Henry Ruggs should've gone ahead of CeeDee Lamb EVER. Figuring out Jefferson back then was much harder, but Ruggs vs Lamb was easy.

 

As another example, with the RB age cliff, you know, its idiotic, period to take RB's with day 1 draft capital especially day 1 draft capital at the top of drafts, period, full stop.

 

Again, am I smarter? Yes and no. There are guys that are in the league with there jobs because of connections and/or nepotism, period. We know when the coaching recycler is a mistake. There isn't a redskins fan w/a functioning brain that thought the Chargers made the right decision in hiring Turner, every last one of us with sense new after 1994-2000 that Turner was an OC period, that he simply lacked the mental make up and ability for a HC job period. The Chargers brass did not know that, we did.

 

Are we smarter about everything? No. Not even about most things, but are all the guys in the league smarter than us ---- no, and if you think so, that's appeal to authority fallacy on crack, and speaking of crack, remember the coach shooting iphone video of himself sniffing coke before a team meeting and sending it to his shady as hell GF? I remember....so no, I don't automatically defer to the genius of these guys, Gettleman, Dorsey and the rest have proven 10 times over, it's just sometimes, who you know, not what you know...step out into the world for 2 seconds, and you realize that's true everywhere, too, not just the NFL. 

 

You have some good takes.  And you give me a hard time for me giving you a hard time for getting some takes wrong in the past.  But the only reason why I gave you a hard time isn't for getting it wrong but you had almost no modifers on your points -- you had very absolute takes on some of those players when pushing your points.  So if that absolute take looks absolutely wrong in time.  It's memorable, that's all.  But as to getting things right and wrong, we all do.

 

You often make variations of a point of there are metrics-lines you won't cross.  And the fact that you won't cross them and others do cross them make your smarter or more disciplined by default.  But my comeback to that is I probably post more metrics on the draft thread than anyone.  I subscribe to PFF.  I put so many numbers on the draft thread that it can make you dizzy.  I value them.  But I still don't live and die with them.   They are lines I will cross.  I will cross breakout age.  I'll cross YPR if there is context to it, etc.  You can be aware of numbers without being a slave to them

 

And i am not saying my way is better than your way.  I am just saying its a different way.  No rights.  No wrongs.  I'd wager a guess that Peters has every number we have and more and understands the value of them but still there is much to the soup and context is part of it.

 

To bottom line the point would you feel more comfortable if you or someone else here was running this FO versus Peters?  If so, cool.  i am curious.

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[seantaylor=god]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Why do you think I flush all the mechanics and footwork ---- down the toilet? You can also tell when reading the takes, which people are just looking at clips from 2023, it's patently obvious. Far too many of these guys simply look at last season, which is just, utterly bizarre to me. 

The obsession with footwork is weird, because it gets double counted with timing/accuracy. If a guy has great footwork that usually makes him be in time and more accurate. But if a guy is really accurate with poor footwork, that tells me he can get even better with some slight modifications. 
 

I also think the ability to be accurate with poor footwork (throwing off balance or with pressure and can’t step into it for example) is actually a positive.

[skinny21]

13 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He fails metrics like pressure to sack, throwing down the middle, and a whole bunch of others.

 

The only metrics I see him doing well in are ones that you could easily attribute to the talent of his WRs.

In other words, he doesn’t fail “like every advanced metric”.

 

I hear you though, there are a lot of concerns.  Similar to parsing out context based on his receivers, part of the problem I have is how to factor in coaching/scheme/etc from the other metrics you’re talking about.  

 

Was he coached to run when he broke the pocket?  I don’t know (though Herm did at ASU).  

 

Did they not use the middle of the field much in terms of scheme/play calling?  I don’t know, though that’s what Gruden said (and he produced when he did throw to the middle).

 

Was his huge bump in production due to his supporting cast or due to things like scheme continuity, the VR tool, and his change in study habits?  No clue, though he and his coaches seemed to rave about the VR, his teammates seemed to embrace (and join in to some degree) his change in study habits.  And of course he had really good receivers in ‘22.

 

There are enough pieces of context to give me hope the pertinent advanced stats are misleading/incomplete, but of course, that’s just hope.  There’s a lot of risk in waving those stats off.  Hopefully our FO, if we draft Daniels, feels comfortable that they’ve verified the contextual factors.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I want Maye but those comps mean nothing to me about either player.  I've gotten into the Fields comparisons before in another post.   Just like the negaive comps of Maye I read among others Zach Wilson.  The big one with Maye is Daniel Jones, heck one of the scouts in McGinn's story came back to that analogy.  My son who knows am a big Maye guy, and he spends too much time reading twitter about the draft, asked me the other day at the dinner table but isn't Maye Daniel Jones?  He knows I hated Daniel Jones before the draft, so lol I shot that down quick.

 

I'd add if there were magical metrics to give the right answer, that dude would make millions.  The PFF guys even joke about how their metrics have failed them even though at one point they had hope.

 

 

So nobody noticed that Jones QBR in his age 20 season was 75th in college, compared to Maye's 10th at the same age? That Jones QBR in his age 21 season was 34th, when Maye's supposedly awful season was 14th? It's so odd. Jones was a starter for 3 years, and 2 of his 3 years he was sub 50th in college football in QBR, just god awful, and the best he ever was was a full 20 spots lower than Maye's worst season. 

 

Kinda bizarre. I suppose they're just looking at the guys physically and stopping there. 

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd wager a guess that Peters has every number we have and more and understands the value of them but still there is much to the soup and context is part of it.

 

I think this is a great point and one reason I certainly don't take my own takes too seriously. The people who actually do this for a living have access to tons of info we'll never see, and use the info we can see in ways we might not think of. 

 

I saw one article recently where an NFC GM said he had a 50-play cut-up of Maye running from a clean pocket when he had receivers wide open. Maybe he was exaggerating, but that caught my attention because I hadn't really seen anyone talk about that issue with Maye.

 

So I do think, at a minimum, football personnel are really diving deep to cover all the bases on prospects, which gives me some comfort, especially with what seems to be a super sharp group newly in charge for Washington.

[Skinsinparadise]

2024 NFL Draft: This Year’s QB Class a Case Study in the Value of College Snaps

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/19/2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-case-study-top-prospects

 

We’re closing in on Thursday’s first round, so it’s time for Albert Breer’s annual look at the top prospects, with help from NFL coaches, scouts and execs who have studied them extensively.

• ALBERT BREER
•  2 HOURS AGO

Jayden Daniels, LSU

 

 

An NFC quarterbacks coach on Daniels: “Good feet. Good base. Based on the tape, I think he’s the best quarterback in the draft.”

 

• Ceiling comp: Lamar Jackson, with a little less as a runner, and a little more as a passer.

 

A very clear-cut No. 2 among the coaches I spoke with, including one saying he’d seriously consider taking him over Williams. “I think he’s a superstar,” the NFC quarterbacks coach says. “I’m not alone on that. He’s a special athlete, he’s a special thrower of the football, he plays on time. So there’s the issue he doesn’t throw over the middle as much, but you watch him throw, it’s where it needs to be. Good feet. Good base. Based on the tape, I think he’s the best quarterback in the draft.”

 

 

An NFC pass-game coordinator adds, “I love this kid, I think he’s really special. … This guy plays fast, he’s a problem in the run game, and he has the arm to rip it down the field. His accuracy will improve as he keeps working on his base. The debate between him and Drake Maye to me is not a debate. He’s so much better.”

 

We can start with the easy part—Daniels, who rushed for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns over two years at LSU—is electric in the run game, both on the designed stuff, and as a scrambler. “You see him as a runner; he is dynamic,” says an NFC OC. “He’s outrunning angles. It looks different. It looks like he’s running at a different speed than everybody else on the field. He’ll be able to use that to his advantage, especially early on.” An AFC exec adds, “It’s really hard for me, because I know it’s sacrilegious to say, but he’s really good, and Lamar is the comp for me.”

 

 

Now, with that established, there are strings attached in the run game.

 

 

The first is how his run style has a little Robert Griffin III to it, in that he, too, often opens himself up to hits, and gets into car-crash collisions. That he has a wiry, basketball-player frame, only enhances the comparison. When Daniels checked in at 210 pounds at his pro day, an AFC college scouting director said, “I’m pleased with the progress. He was 180 pounds at one point, but I think he’s about maxed out. He’s got a slender physique, and he’s done what he can. He’s gonna have to learn to get down. He took violent hits. Guys get square on him, and he’s going the wrong way. … There are specific games where it’s like, Oh my god, how did he not see him coming? Did he think he was gonna run through that guy? It’s gotta be fixed.”

 

Second, there’s the fact that some of these hits come in scramble situations, where Daniels is almost always running. “When he scrambles, he runs, he doesn’t extend plays to throw,” says an AFC coordinator. “So when he pulls the ball down and moves, you know he’s going to go. He had 16 pass attempts off scrambles all year. You’d just like for him to keep his eyes downfield more. Now, he rushed for 1,200 yards, so it’s tough to argue the results. … But it’s the combination of he doesn’t have the frame and he’s getting f---ing rocked that worries you.” An NFC OC adds, “If you watch 20 scramble plays of Caleb Williams and 20 of Jayden Daniels, they’re polar opposites. Caleb’s going to throw it 15 out of the 20 times, and Jayden’s going to run it 15 out of the 20 times.”

 

 

As a passer, it’s a bit more complicated, but this isn’t—Daniels has improved by leaps and bounds. “I wasn’t sure what type of player I was about to watch,” says an AFC OC. “I saw discipline with his feet, an ability to distribute the ball and make good decisions. I knew he was an athlete, but when I flipped it on, I saw a quarterback who happens to make plays with his legs.” If there is a criticism in that realm, it came from the aforementioned AFC coordinator, who adds, “My concern is he doesn’t ever throw over the middle of the field; they’re mostly pick-and-stick throws. So does he see it? Is he processing it?” That said, his downfield accuracy, and throws to the sideline, show his talent as a passer.

 

 

The key here might be what Daniels has already done, and that’s consistently improve. He may not be the world’s most outward leader, but his teammates see the work he puts in, and the fact that he’s taken such huge steps are a nod to the work he’s put in. “He’s one of a couple where if you go back early in his career, they’d be lucky to be undrafted free agents,” the aforementioned AFC college scouting director says. “This guy’s done a lot for him to put himself in this position. If I’m betting on someone to get better, he’s on the right trajectory.”

 

Drake Maye, North Carolina

An NFC offensive coordinator on Maye: “That’s the guy that most people think boom or bust.”

Size: 6'4⅜", 223 pounds

• Ceiling comp: Justin Herbert skill set with a Josh Allen playstyle

 

 

Here’s where the arguing begins. Maye was the overwhelming favorite to be the second pick going into the 2023 college season, but an up-and-down campaign has split NFL folks on him.

 

“That’s the guy that most people think boom or bust,” says an NFC OC. “Makes some really great throws, and some wild throws, some really head-scratching throws, like Damn, where’d that ball land? You love the size. You love the big lower body, the frame. You love the fact that he has a couple professional athletes in the family. You talk about a good arm, [but] not anywhere near Caleb Williams. There are just inconsistencies with his game.”

 

 

We can start with the bright side, which is, as the OC says, the stuff you can’t coach that Maye brings to the table. “Tools through the roof,” says an AFC OC. “Size, athleticism, arm strength. The hard thing is getting a sense for where he’s at from a processing standpoint. Coming from that offense doesn’t do a ton of favors for him. He’ll rip some throws, and miss stuff he should make. But he’s got everything in his body you’d ever want.” An AFC exec adds, “Drake, to me, is so underappreciated. He was on a bad team, in a bad offense, no offensive line, super average receivers. I’m not sure what people expected this year.”

 

 

Indeed, Maye—the son of a UNC quarterback, and brother of Power 5 basketball, football and baseball players—leveled off last year after losing his OC, Phil Longo, and a raft of veteran players, including Colts receiver Josh Downs. Fans of his, like the exec above, like that he had to experience carrying a team. Others saw it differently. “He’s an enigma for me,” says an NFC quarterbacks coach. “He’s big, he has decent athleticism. But as a thrower, I think he’s average. He plays on his toes when he doesn’t have to, he does not have a good base, he turns the ball over. … He’s jumpy, he looks off-schedule in the pocket, he doesn’t play with any rhythm.”

 

And in a way, the experience that Maye had his final year at UNC meshes with things being said about Herbert his last year at Oregon. The two guys went opposite ways in the aftermath. While he didn’t play poorly, the spectacular plays vanished for Herbert. With Maye, the spectacular was still there, but there was a good amount of bad tape, too, with bad habits cropping up. “I kept wanting him, when I was watching these games, like, Hey, you’re the guy. Go take over this game,” says an NFC OC. “At his peak, is he going to be a top-eight quarterback? I have a harder time seeing that right now. I think he’s more in that 10–15 range at his very best. It’s going to take some time to get there.”

 

 

Maye doesn’t turn 22 until this summer. Like Williams and McCarthy, he was a freshman when Michael Penix Jr. graduated high school. And there is a little growing up that teams are hoping for—one coach referred to him as a “puppy,” and a nervous energy has come across to some. That could explain an up-and-down start to his pro day throwing session. “You watch the pro day, he gets really down on himself in those first 10 throws,” says a second AFC OC. “Pleaser is the right way to describe him,” adds the aforementioned AFC exec. “He’s a good kid, wants to do well, wants to be coached, knows he doesn’t have all the answers. … And he’s really smart, really cerebral about football.”

 

In the end, if you put together the bad habits developed last year, the youth, and the lack of overall experience, most folks I talked to believe a redshirt year would benefit him, and maybe bring out what most saw in 2022. “I think you want to build his foundation and ensure that he’s got the foundation of how to play the position from the ground up, from his footwork to his drop mechanics, to his balance, to his rhythm,” says the NFC OC. “To have the talent that he has, to make some of the decisions that he makes and then some of the throws that he makes or misses, I think it would benefit him to have the ability to sit and watch and develop and then don’t trot him out there, like a Jordan Love, like a Patrick Mahomes. … I don’t know the kid from Adam, but I do think if he got off to a rocky start, that there are some potential confidence issues.”

 

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

An AFC offensive coordinator on McCarthy: “He has a powerful arm, but having a powerful arm and being a good thrower are two different things. I think he’s a backup.”

 

• Size: 6'2½", 219 pounds
• Ceiling comp: Souped-up Brock Purdy

 

 

McCarthy brought about the same sort of divide in opinion that Maye did. But the Michigan star has helped himself a ton through the process. What to make of that is very much in the eye of the beholder.

“He’s the one that’s helped himself more from December to now than any of these guys,” says an AFC college scouting director. “What I’m a little nervous about is history is not kind on this sort of thing. His pro day was exceptional, as good as you’ll have. He’s another guy that’s improved his body. He’s not a huge guy, but he’s done a great job. He looked more sturdy and solid. He tightened up his mechanics; the ball came off his hand with more velocity than you expect. It’s a credit to him. It looks like he’s physically developed his body. But that’s all been done since he was done playing football. Is that all fluff? Has he built himself into an artificial version of himself, or is this what he is now?”

 

 

The positive with McCarthy is the 27–1 record as a starter, a loose sort of athleticism that’s apparent on tape, a really solid arm, and strong intangibles as a leader and worker. “I think this kid is going to be really good,” says an NFC pass-game coordinator. “In some ways, to me, he might be the surest bet. From an operational standpoint, you can see he has a process and a plan. The intangibles are there. He throws it well, if you look at the miles per hour from the combine. He can run. But he did play behind a fortress of an offensive line. So what does it look like when the pocket’s reduced and he has to deal with some noise?”

 

This is where the critics come in. And two things that came up consistently, even with those who like him—every throw is a fastball (“He’s more of a thrower than a passer,” says one coach), and he really has to throw his body into throws, and delivers the ball from an overly wide base, indicating he needs time and space to throw, which he was routinely afforded playing on a stacked Michigan team. “People talk about Drake’s motion, but I think J.J.’s has to be cleaned up a lot more,” says an AFC exec. “He puts his whole damn body into it, his feet are wide, there’s a lot to work through.”

 

 

Also, where there are tight-window throws, there are bouts with inaccuracy that some have trouble getting past. “I’m just watching the running backs and receivers, and the inaccuracy is incredible,” says an AFC OC. “Maybe it’s because the other guys are so good, but they’re stopping on routes, digging the ball out of the dirt. You see his feet are split, and everything is a fastball. You have these fireballs as checkdowns. He’s not for me.” And an offense that’s so reliant on the run game makes it tough to project McCarthy. “Everything is play-action. There’s no drop-back. It’s just hard,” says an NFC quarterbacks coach. “Their four biggest games, he didn’t do much special. He was just a guy. He’s not accurate, he’s an overstrider in the pocket, and he plays with happy feet. He has a powerful arm, but having a powerful arm and being a good thrower are two different things. I think he’s a backup.”

 

 

The QBs coach continued, “Last drive of the game against Alabama, the receiver [Roman] Wilson runs a deep cross, and J.J. has him open, but he overstrides and the ball sails on him. It’s gonna be a pick and Michigan’s gonna lose. The Alabama DB thinks he’s got it, and Wilson makes a ridiculous catch. And that’s an easy throw. S--t like that, I worry about.”

 

But with all that established, the win–loss record is the win–loss record, McCarthy’s clearly improved over his three years, and he’s the youngest of the group—having just turned 21 in January. “Love the person, love the winner, love the swag, love all that stuff,” says an NFC OC. “This guy’s won more than anybody. At the end of the day, the moment will not be too big for him, whereas I’m not sure for a guy like Drake Maye. The biggest question for him is his arm talent. How good is his arm?” Another NFC OC adds, “The intangibles are off the charts. Just pure ability-wise, I know he’s young and he’s still developing and growing, but it doesn’t look like a top-10 quarterback where you’re like, Boom, here we go. Could he develop into that? With all these guys, you know how hard it is. It’s harder to see that with him.”

 

 

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[mac8887]

2 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

In other words, he doesn’t fail “like every advanced metric”.

 

I hear you though, there are a lot of concerns.  Similar to parsing out context based on his receivers, part of the problem I have is how to factor in coaching/scheme/etc from the other metrics you’re talking about.  

 

Was he coached to run when he broke the pocket?  I don’t know (though Herm did at ASU).  

 

Did they not use the middle of the field much in terms of scheme/play calling?  I don’t know, though that’s what Gruden said (and he produced when he did throw to the middle).

 

Was his huge bump in production due to his supporting cast or due to things like scheme continuity, the VR tool, and his change in study habits?  No clue, though he and his coaches seemed to rave about the VR, his teammates seemed to embrace (and join in to some degree) his change in study habits.  And of course he had really good receivers in ‘22.

 

There are enough pieces of context to give me hope the pertinent advanced stats are misleading/incomplete, but of course, that’s just hope.  There’s a lot of risk in waving those stats off.  Hopefully our FO, if we draft Daniels, feels comfortable that they’ve verified the contextual factors.

Joe Burrows improvement at LSU and ability to sustain it making the jump to the pros gives me some hope that the improvement the Jayden made can help him with his transition as well and that it wasn’t just a fluke. 

[goskins10]

 

A pretty reasoned take on the all QBs visiting at once and Top Golf thing. Not the biggest Criag Hoffman fan but he makes some good points here. Also, I am not sure why people completly ignore several key facts: 

 

1. Bill B. and other HCs/GMs/ FO personel have said this approach is not new. While it's not done by all teams all the time it has been used by teams before. He said in NE they used to bring in a bunch of players at once. 

 

2. Adam Peters made it clear while they had the group time, they also made sure each player had alone time with coaches. So the idea they had no time to meet wit the players individually is just not true. 

 

Anyway, it's a more rational take than some. 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by goskins10

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Interesting read on stats of QBs since 2000 that have started right way, weeks 2-8, weeks 9-16, year 2, year 3, or year 4+

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/history-of-nfl-qbs-waiting-to-start-heres-what-stats-since-2000-say-about-when-theyll-most-likely-succeed/

 

Between 2000 and 2019, there have been 91 quarterbacks that entered the league and became a team's full-time starter at some point. (That's an average of around 4.5 per year.) It may have happened right away, or it may have happened a few weeks or even years down the line. It may have happened with the team that drafted them or it may have happened with another team entirely. But at one point or another, they all got a shot to prove themselves. 

 

Of the aforementioned 91 quarterbacks, just 29 of them started under center in Week 1 of their rookie season. An additional 21 took over the reins at some point within the first eight games of that season, while 14 more grabbed them in the back half of their rookie year. That's 64 of the 91 passers who became the full-time starter during their initial season. Of the remaining 27 players, 16 took the job at some point in Year 2, three took it in Year 3, and eight had to wait until Year 4 of their career or later. 

 

 

In almost every category, the group of players that took over in Year 3 performed the best, while the players who became starters in the second half of their rookie season performed the worst. Of course, these results are subject to all sorts of small-sample size concerns. 

You can't just look at the Year 3 column and see that those players have significantly out-performed the others and conclude that the correct move is to sit your preferred starter for two seasons and then give him the job. That group consists of only three players, two of whom (Rivers and Romo) went on to become high-level starters for a decade or more. Similarly, you can't just look at the Game 9-16 column and conclude that you should never give your guy the job during that section of the season because those players haven't been as good. It's entirely possible that players like JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, Drew Lock, and more were going to fail regardless of when they stepped into the lineup. 

 

It does seem notable, though, that the rookies afforded the opportunity to start right away have generally out-performed those who had to wait a bit but still stepped into the lineup in the first half of their rookie season, who in turn out-performed those who had to wait until the second half of the year before their team gave them a shot. It's also worth noting that while in general, the quarterbacks who waited until Year 2 or beyond to become the starter have out-performed their rookie-starter counterparts, the former sample has the benefit of including Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Brees, Rivers, and Romo.

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by WashingtonRedWolves

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

I personally don’t mind that piece too much - qb evaluation is so dang difficult and the league’s track record is shaky - as much as how entrenchment has lead some to turn on any and all sources/resources that disagree with their take, including many that we (the board) have lauded/referenced in the past.  

And the downstream effect of that entrenchment could quite possibly lead to dissatisfaction with our FO along with a focus on picking apart the rookie (if it’s not the guy the poster(s) wanted) on game days.  I hope I’m wrong about that, because that sounds like a miserable experience when we’re looking at such a long overdue, positive position in terms of the state of the franchise.  Of course, it’s human nature - it sucks to be wrong and it’s great to be right, lol.

I take no issue with folks putting their hat in the ring and having strong opinions about anything.

 

But I can’t help but laugh at the arrogance of folks who haven’t so much as drafted a kid in Pop Warner standing on a pedestal talking about it’s their way or the highway.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know they are based on metrics.  When I am watching PFF guys among others make fun of the idea that their own metrics haven't helped them exceed the crap shoot game at QB.  At one point they thought it would but it hasn't and they laughed about it in a draft show i watched -- I appreciated their humility.

 

On the other extreme, I got the Football Outsiders guy claim that his metrics nailed Mahomes among others and claims Daniels > Maye.  Ditto Warren Sharp.

 

I don't find some full consensus that the metrics favor one player over another and even if it did -- I don't believe the anayltics crowd have cracked the code at QB. 

Yeah, I'd definitely appreciate PFF for that. It's clear as heck, nobody has cracked Quarterbacking, period, the funniest example being: Purdy blowing up with a great S2 score in '22, so in '23, S2 talk is everywhere, and then Stroud's status is a prospect is ripped to the hell to the extent that Stroud just publically ----'s all over the S2 and euphemistically calls it horse ----, and then in the fall, S2 wunderkind Young is total ---, and Stroud goes nuclear all season long...and now, nobody anywhere is talking S2 anything anymore.

 

Nobody knows this thing. The best anyone can do is build models (at least to me anyway), that are suggestive of warning signs. I haven't seen anyone build a sustained period of success w/any approach they have at evaluating QB's, and in fairness, part of this is simply the fact that QB classes sometimes collectively fail horribly ('13-'16) and there was nothing in the class to begin with, and part of this is just, its freaking hard, and nothing is terribly predictive of success, just to me, some things are more predictive of failure, that's the best we got, but some keep insisting they can tell hit from busts, when I think the truth is more, I can tell players more likely to bust, than others that might be less, but whose gonna hit? No idea, especially the hit it big types.

 

Lawrence remains a startling what the hell happened prospect to me. Not a bust, but wow, just so so so very average. Not at all what I was expecting. 

[skinny21]

15 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's not that simple. I don't have some big board in my basement that I believe draft after draft is better than the pro's boards, I don't scout hundreds of linebackers, edge rushers, DT's, and Centers etc. I'm not remotely close to that.

 

But I'm also smart enough to know that drafting Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel from FSU last decade was rage enducingly stupid. That the Trubisky love was idiotic, that Zach Wilson and Pickett were monstrously stupid picks.

 

You do not have to be a genius to understand when GM's and scouts get lost in the trees and make stupid decisions. If you have distance from this, watch long enough, read long enough, analyze data enough you can sniff out stupid pretty easily.

 

There was no universe in which Henry Ruggs should've gone ahead of CeeDee Lamb EVER. Figuring out Jefferson back then was much harder, but Ruggs vs Lamb was easy.

 

As another example, with the RB age cliff, you know, its idiotic, period to take RB's with day 1 draft capital especially day 1 draft capital at the top of drafts, period, full stop.

 

Again, am I smarter? Yes and no. There are guys that are in the league with there jobs because of connections and/or nepotism, period. We know when the coaching recycler is a mistake. There isn't a redskins fan w/a functioning brain that thought the Chargers made the right decision in hiring Turner, every last one of us with sense new after 1994-2000 that Turner was an OC period, that he simply lacked the mental make up and ability for a HC job period. The Chargers brass did not know that, we did.

 

Are we smarter about everything? No. Not even about most things, but are all the guys in the league smarter than us ---- no, and if you think so, that's appeal to authority fallacy on crack, and speaking of crack, remember the coach shooting iphone video of himself sniffing coke before a team meeting and sending it to his shady as hell GF? I remember....so no, I don't automatically defer to the genius of these guys, Gettleman, Dorsey and the rest have proven 10 times over, it's just sometimes, who you know, not what you know...step out into the world for 2 seconds, and you realize that's true everywhere, too, not just the NFL. 

Just want to point out that a couple/few times now you’ve responded to someone making a general statement to say that it’s inaccurate because it doesn’t fit you.  To be clear, that’s not meant to be a dig, I’m just saying there are people who absolutely fit the description (IMO).  I want to be clear though, I love your posts - your reasoning, analytics, stories, clarity, thoughtfulness, intelligence, etc.  

[Andre The Giant]

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

19 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's not that simple. I don't have some big board in my basement that I believe draft after draft is better than the pro's boards, I don't scout hundreds of linebackers, edge rushers, DT's, and Centers etc. I'm not remotely close to that.

 

But I'm also smart enough to know that drafting Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel from FSU last decade was rage enducingly stupid. That the Trubisky love was idiotic, that Zach Wilson and Pickett were monstrously stupid picks.

 

You do not have to be a genius to understand when GM's and scouts get lost in the trees and make stupid decisions. If you have distance from this, watch long enough, read long enough, analyze data enough you can sniff out stupid pretty easily.

 

There was no universe in which Henry Ruggs should've gone ahead of CeeDee Lamb EVER. Figuring out Jefferson back then was much harder, but Ruggs vs Lamb was easy.

 

As another example, with the RB age cliff, you know, its idiotic, period to take RB's with day 1 draft capital especially day 1 draft capital at the top of drafts, period, full stop.

 

Again, am I smarter? Yes and no. There are guys that are in the league with there jobs because of connections and/or nepotism, period. We know when the coaching recycler is a mistake. There isn't a redskins fan w/a functioning brain that thought the Chargers made the right decision in hiring Turner, every last one of us with sense new after 1994-2000 that Turner was an OC period, that he simply lacked the mental make up and ability for a HC job period. The Chargers brass did not know that, we did.

 

Are we smarter about everything? No. Not even about most things, but are all the guys in the league smarter than us ---- no, and if you think so, that's appeal to authority fallacy on crack, and speaking of crack, remember the coach shooting iphone video of himself sniffing coke before a team meeting and sending it to his shady as hell GF? I remember....so no, I don't automatically defer to the genius of these guys, Gettleman, Dorsey and the rest have proven 10 times over, it's just sometimes, who you know, not what you know...step out into the world for 2 seconds, and you realize that's true everywhere, too, not just the NFL. 

You seem to really take my comments on this subject very personal, as if you read my posts and feel that you are being targeted.  I’m aware that there are folks in every organization, across all industries, that don’t belong there - including the NFL for sure.

 

I said this earlier and I’ll say it again, I have no qualms with folks who enjoy scouting for hobby, and talk passionately about their analysis.

 

But there’s a line where it becomes laughable just how overly confident and arrogant some folks can be.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

 

 

Basically that article is about Florio discovered what we all know that Harris sat in on the QB meetings at the park and at the combine though I heard he didn't say a word but just listened and its Peter's call as to what happens.  But Florio likes to throw a hand grenade at this team whenever he can

[@DCGoldPants]

8 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

 

 

Florio is big mad today after Washington fans made fun of him over the multiple prospects at once non-story story. 

[DogofWar1]

This does ring true given their sudden scramble to meet with the vikings.

 

I suspect he met with the Pats, who didn't give him the "if you are there at 3 we take you" guarantee, and then met with us and also got no "you at 2" guarantee.

 

They shouldn't have assumed anything.  NOW I do NOT assume this is on Jayden.  This is on his agent being sloppy and ****y.

[RandyHolt]

Cant wait for the PR team to prop up Daniels by making him to stand next to Forbes in team photos /s

[ntotoro]

ESPN has an SEC bias. They'll always push an SEC player, right or wrong. I'm not saying they're wrong, just saying...

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, DogofWar1 said:

This does ring true given their sudden scramble to meet with the vikings.

 

I suspect he met with the Pats, who didn't give him the "if you are there at 3 we take you" guarantee, and then met with us and also got no "you at 2" guarantee.

 

They shouldn't have assumed anything.  NOW I do NOT assume this is on Jayden.  This is on his agent being sloppy and ****y.

 

Jayden seems like a good kid, but how can all of this bull**** be purely on his agent without any input from him? Seems a bit far fetched to me.

 

 

(I know this has already been beaten to death by some, but I wonder if maybe his mom is one of the people complaining behind the scenes?)

[jg77]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Jayden seems like a good kid, but how can all of this bull**** be purely on his agent without any input from him? Seems a bit far fetched to me.

 

 

(I know this has already been beaten to death by some, but I wonder if maybe his mom is one of the people complaining behind the scenes?)

 

No, it's not. Stop assuming stuff that you want to believe.

[mistertim]

Just now, jg77 said:

 

No, it's not. Stop assuming stuff that you want to believe.

 

And you know this how, exactly?

[skinny21]

17 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Yeah, I'd definitely appreciate PFF for that. It's clear as heck, nobody has cracked Quarterbacking, period, the funniest example being: Purdy blowing up with a great S2 score in '22, so in '23, S2 talk is everywhere, and then Stroud's status is a prospect is ripped to the hell to the extent that Stroud just publically ----'s all over the S2 and euphemistically calls it horse ----, and then in the fall, S2 wunderkind Young is total ---, and Stroud goes nuclear all season long...and now, nobody anywhere is talking S2 anything anymore.

 

Nobody knows this thing. The best anyone can do is build models (at least to me anyway), that are suggestive of warning signs. I haven't seen anyone build a sustained period of success w/any approach they have at evaluating QB's, and in fairness, part of this is simply the fact that QB classes sometimes collectively fail horribly ('13-'16) and there was nothing in the class to begin with, and part of this is just, its freaking hard, and nothing is terribly predictive of success, just to me, some things are more predictive of failure, that's the best we got, but some keep insisting they can tell hit from busts, when I think the truth is more, I can tell players more likely to bust, than others that might be less, but whose gonna hit? No idea, especially the hit it big types.

 

Lawrence remains a startling what the hell happened prospect to me. Not a bust, but wow, just so so so very average. Not at all what I was expecting. 

I’ve really appreciated the knowledge you’ve brought to the board.  I often go back to your debates with @Skinsinparadise about McLaurin.  I think having those analytic benchmarks in place, if they increase your odds even a little bit, they can give you a huge edge.  Sure, you’ll miss some, but you’ll likely miss fewer than those that ignore the benchmarks.  So I dig your process in that sense.  Now, the flip side of the argument is if everyone uses those same bench marks, that edge goes away.  However, if someone uses them, but also factors in context (like with Terry), they’re more likely to find a diamond in the ruff.

 

Taking this back to the qb topic, this - using benchmarks, but also factoring context - is where our FO has to earn their keep.  Most of the negative analytics for Daniels might have context mitigating them.  For me, that “might”, coupled with his size makes me nervous.