Welcome to Washington Jamin Davis LB Kentucky

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I'm glancing at this on my phone.  And have just skimmed some stuff, but the the conversation of "how do you define a reach" is a good one.  I'm liking the convo!

[Silvernon]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think you’re missing the point. Reaching exists. You, me or anyone else though... has no idea if we reached or not. Not yet. 

My argument goes more like this:

 

NY Giants supposedly were taking Davis or Toney at 20. So a team who traded down expected him to be available at 20 and a rival took him a pick before them. 

 

A trade offer was made for the St. Juste pick, and the inquiring team wanted the same player. Does that mean that was his appropriate draft value?

 

I think we're getting more from the media these days, and GMs and coaches are a bit more open about the potential options.

 

I recall the post-draft Payne vs James or Edmunds in 2018. 

 

Even look at Del Rio saying "there were a couple corners that we liked that went before our pick" (Horn and Surtain) as evidence that Horn and Surtain were rated highly by multiple teams. Quite clearly WFT and other teams in the teens felt that those two were another tier from the rest, including Farley. 

 

As far as reach or not, I think you can get a sense now. Particularly if you hear multiple teams in the 20s, for instance, say that x player was of interest. 

 

And in turn, when it comes out that multiple teams had a player much lower it is fair to call it a reach. 

 

Josh LeRibeus anyone?

 

So many come to mind. Plenty of 2000s Raiders picks. 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Silvernon

[Dark Acre]

2 hours ago, Silvernon said:

Josh LeRibeus anyone?

That wasn't a reach, it was a cry for help.

[Going Commando]

17 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think you’re missing the point. Reaching exists. You, me or anyone else though... has no idea if we reached or not. Not yet. 

 

I understand that we can't have certainty yet.  We're just talking projections.  Skill and accuracy in projecting is really what matters in the end because that's all we've got to go on at decision-time.  When I say they reached for Jamin, the implicit part of my statement is "via my analysis based on projections, my take is..."

 

Then if you want to argue against that take, you can either argue that it wasn't a reach based on X, Y, or Z analysis/projections, or perhaps instead argue that the reach wasn't that costly in this case.

 

That's not what a lot of the discussion here was doing though.  The thread discussion was trending to the conclusion that reaching doesn't exist or that it is an entirely notional irrelevance.  Frankly that kind of kool-aid drinking nonsense makes the forum look dumb.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I understand that we can't have certainty yet.  We're just talking projections.  Skill and accuracy in projecting is really what matters in the end because that's all we've got to go on at decision-time.  When I say they reached for Jamin, the implicit part of my statement is "via my analysis based on projections, my take is..."

 

Then if you want to argue against that take, you can either argue that it wasn't a reach based on X, Y, or Z analysis/projections, or perhaps instead argue that the reach wasn't that costly in this case.

 

That's not what a lot of the discussion here was doing though.  The thread discussion was trending to the conclusion that reaching doesn't exist or that it is an entirely notional irrelevance.  Frankly that kind of kool-aid drinking nonsense makes the forum look dumb.

Of course reaching exists. We did it a bunch of times in the past. But it’s not something we can pin down in the here and now. Going back to my original point: immediately after the draft the usage of the word reach and value is used entirely as a talking point for people that believe their opinion holds more merit than other people’s. They use the term reach for giggles on podcasts.

 

By definition a reach should be: “you drafted a player you had ranked much lower (5+ spots) on YOUR board versus a player YOU had more highly ranked.”

 

So, if Jamin was the highest rated player on Washington’s board, or at least close to it, is that a reach for Washington?

 

Now, whether they were right or not remains to be seen. But immediately post draft, without knowing Washington’s board... how can anyone call Davis a reach for Washington?

 

For the person talking? Sure. But ultimately does it matter if McShay, Kiper, me, you, SIP, Brooks, etc., define a guy as a reach or not right after a draft? No. His performance does. 
 

The part that irks me more is the use of definitive language. “That WAS a reach” vs. “I think that may have been a reach here.”

 

Its a semantics conversation but stating something as a fact with its subjective and not an objective opinion is always a poor avenue. Yet we all do it. Including myself. Sometimes it’s quicker to just say it the first way. But, the quicker speaking aspect is a major reason that the written language has become “lol ikr” instead of a better mechanism for actual communication.

[Anselmheifer]

19 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Davis was before I started watching film on prospects, so I don't know how good of a prospect he was.  But we do have hindsight with him and he became such a good player that he had a 16 AV season and 100 career AV.  That's fringe HoF territory, kind of like a Takeo Spikes or Karlos Dansby level career.  That feels unrealistic for Jamin in either longevity or peak dominance, but it's not completely out of reach for him.  As you say, this staff and surrounding talent are absolutely ideal for his development and he has a great chance to reach his potential.  I'm not up in arms about the pick either, just noticed that the kool-aid effect in here was so extreme that dudes were questioning if the very notion of reaching could exist 🤣

 

Darrisaw/Bateman/Etienne/Harris/Newsome/Moehrig too?  I'm not confident that he is.  But I'm also not viewing it as a major problem that we reached to fill needs--yet.  I think we're still getting hits and that a volume of good > a few of great.

With regards to Davis, I wasn’t referring to how good he became. I was pointing out that he wasn’t a super highly regarded LB prospect. He came in as a safety, much less athletic than Jamin and no more highly regarded. But Rivera etc knew what they were targeting and how to develop him. Davis was a poor man’s Jamin as a prospect. 
 

What I get out of that is just a sense that even if they choose a LB that wasn’t my guy, that they have a history of tremendous success with similar picks. I trust their judgment over mine with that specific type of player. 
 

With regards to drafting for need and to fill holes, I think I understand the urgency. I feel like we are trying to field a much improved team, RIGHT NOW. There is an urgency because we are trying to make ourselves an attractive destination for these QB’s, Russell, Rodgers, etc. 

[Bifflog]

23 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I understand that we can't have certainty yet.  We're just talking projections.  Skill and accuracy in projecting is really what matters in the end because that's all we've got to go on at decision-time.  When I say they reached for Jamin, the implicit part of my statement is "via my analysis based on projections, my take is..."

 

Then if you want to argue against that take, you can either argue that it wasn't a reach based on X, Y, or Z analysis/projections, or perhaps instead argue that the reach wasn't that costly in this case.

 

That's not what a lot of the discussion here was doing though.  The thread discussion was trending to the conclusion that reaching doesn't exist or that it is an entirely notional irrelevance.  Frankly that kind of kool-aid drinking nonsense makes the forum look dumb.

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but this certainly wasn't what I was trying to get at.  I have no problems with your individual analysis concluding that the pick was a reach (in fact, that content is best stuff in this board.)  I took more issue with this take ..."We don't need to lie to ourselves about him being a reach.  He likely was.  The guy had second round film and that's where he would have been picked until he ran and jumped his way into the first at his Pro Day."  I don't think you have to lie to yourself to disagree with your projection, unless you also are pretty sure the WFT braintrust is also lying to themselves?  Being personally confident they didn't make the most out of the pick is one thing, but acting like it's already settled science gives no room for their analysis to be correct.

 

Edit: Sometimes it can seem like a stream of messages from different posters all in response to the same person/post present a united front, but there was plenty in those posts I didn't agree with.  Certainly not a reach denier

Edited May 10, 2021 by Bifflog

[Going Commando]

4 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

With regards to Davis, I wasn’t referring to how good he became. I was pointing out that he wasn’t a super highly regarded LB prospect. He came in as a safety, much less athletic than Jamin and no more highly regarded. But Rivera etc knew what they were targeting and how to develop him. Davis was a poor man’s Jamin as a prospect. 
 

What I get out of that is just a sense that even if they choose a LB that wasn’t my guy, that they have a history of tremendous success with similar picks. I trust their judgment over mine with that specific type of player. 
 

With regards to drafting for need and to fill holes, I think I understand the urgency. I feel like we are trying to field a much improved team, RIGHT NOW. There is an urgency because we are trying to make ourselves an attractive destination for these QB’s, Russell, Rodgers, etc. 

 

I just can't say anything of value on prospect T Davis, so I was going off his NFL career.  His career is a way higher bar than I would use to consider Jamin a really great pick.  I was thinking something more like ~70-80 career AV would make Jamin a great pick.  10 years, ~8 AV per season feels really good.  We'll get our money's worth at that level, but if he ends up being as good as T Davis, that's a home run.

 

Your last paragraph is a cogent argument for why, even if Jamin was a reach, the reach wasn't that costly in this circumstance.  The leadership potential that Jamin provides increases his value, particularly in that kind of circumstance.  That leadership potential is one of the key things I'm using to sell myself on the pick.  It's important.

 

I was relatively pleased with the pick right after it happened.  Went back over some of his cut ups after the draft and got spooked a little bit.  His film wasn't as good as I had thought it was.  Then the list of athletic stack LBs with poor instincts who didn't really pan out in the NFL started running in my head: Aaron Curry, Bruce Carter, Keith Rivers, Alec Ogletree, Stephone Anthony, Darron Lee, etc.  What I'm telling myself is that Jamin just hasn't seen enough yet.  Too few reps.  Which of course then begs the question of why wasn't he really playing before this year?  Kentucky isn't Alabama.  That's a troubling piece of the puzzle too, and I'm not sure I buy that the only reason he wasn't playing was because he had to gain weight.

 

Going back to the discussion of his usage that we had before, I think keeping him on the weakside or overhang him and having him blitz a lot and otherwise stick to man coverage is the way to go with him this year.  We're going to need to tailor a role for him and simplify his keys.  We were hoping for an authoritative MIKE presence, but that would set him up to struggle IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

[XxSpearheadxX]

I heard Jamin Davis is the odds on favorite for DROY this season. Even if he doesn't win, just the fact that Washington drafted him at 19 and he is favored with book keepers to win DROY is fantastic. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

I've seen quite a few interesting things within the last couple of pages. While I think you have a very strong and winning argument that Zaven Collins and JOK were better players in college, I don't think they project as well as Jamin Davis and that's what is important. It's not about how good of a player you have, it's how good will this guy be once he develops and fits into the system. Jamin is a tackling machine, has the size, speed, and length required to be a star player at the NFL level. Jamin Davis's pro day is where I hopped on the train, his numbers are crazy. I just thought he would fall between our first two picks and wasn't sure if he was a target. It's not hard to project him as a 140-150 tackle LB at the next level.

 

I'm not really seeing the reading/reacting issues that some here are claiming. It's definitely not showing up in the stat sheet as he's involved on a lot of plays. 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[UK Skins]

11 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

I heard Jamin Davis is the odds on favorite for DROY this season. Even if he doesn't win, just the fact that Washington drafted him at 19 and he is favored with book keepers to win DROY is fantastic. 

 

I just looked and he is 12/1 here in England. Parsons is the (5/1) favourite.

[XxSpearheadxX]

5 hours ago, UK Skins said:

 

I just looked and he is 12/1 here in England. Parsons is the (5/1) favourite.

The numbers I saw had him 4/1 and Parsons as 5/1, oh well! 

[Warhead36]

5 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I've seen quite a few interesting things within the last couple of pages. While I think you have a very strong and winning argument that Zaven Collins and JOK were better players in college, I don't think they project as well as Jamin Davis and that's what is important. It's not about how good of a player you have, it's how good will this guy be once he develops and fits into the system.

 

^^ exactly this. Its not about who was the better player on their college team in 2020. Its about who will be the better fit for our program come 2022 or 2023.

[Vanguard]

Should I be worried about Davis’s game speed?  He was blazing fast in his forty yard dash.  But from the clips I’ve seen he plays a little slower.  Hopefully that’s something Del Rio can correct.

[Going Commando]

Scouts 3 and 4 from that Athletic article were more ambivalent about the Jamin Davis pick @Skinsinparadise: https://theathletic.com/2576916/2021/05/10/scouts-discuss-washingtons-draft-jamin-davis-dyami-brown-have-highest-upside/

 

Quote

 

Scout 3: (Washington’s) linebacking corps was weak. I think you have to take a guy like him. (Micah) Parsons was gone (at No. 12 to Dallas). Jamin is a high-character kid, but he doesn’t have a lot of starting experience. He’s big, he’s strong. Would I have taken him in (Round) 1? Probably not, but I think his (development) will come from experience. I personally would have taken him in (Round) 2, but after his pro day and how fast he ran, maybe (Round 1).

 

Scout 4: So, it was interesting because he was not a starter in previous years. I was at a (Kentucky) game this season, and his body type just sticks out. He looks the part. Then about midseason, when he was having the production he was, and everybody kind of started relooking at him because he is absolutely a new-age linebacker that fits what everybody wants: big, long and can run. All the stuff in the box, the stacks is where he still has got to improve. Then the challenge over the second half of the year was, “Why has this kid not played?” Obviously, (Kentucky has) had some good players in linebacker come through, but (odd) for him to play not much. It was really gleaning through those questions. He was certainly on our radar as a Day 2 guy by the end of the season. And then you just put the pieces together: the testing, and you watch more (tape). He certainly just kept helping himself out more.

 

 

The picture I get from the scouts is that Jamin's film is second round caliber but that his Pro-Day workouts inflated his draft stock into the first round.

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Scouts 3 and 4 from that Athletic article were more ambivalent about the Jamin Davis pick @Skinsinparadise: https://theathletic.com/2576916/2021/05/10/scouts-discuss-washingtons-draft-jamin-davis-dyami-brown-have-highest-upside/

 

 

The picture I get from the scouts is that Jamin's film is second round caliber but that his Pro-Day workouts inflated his draft stock into the first round.

 

More ambivilant maybe but their raps are certainly positive.  If you go through the scouts reports about almost every player, there is negative stuff in the mix.  There was negative on Parsons for example that went beyond just his character.

 

But nothing I've caught on Jamin that is as rough as what I've read on some other prospects, including Cosmi.  I posted one of them here to make that point.  It's really hard to find an unadulterated we love the guy rap on any prospect if you read them all, with some exceptions.   Tough to find universal love when they quote scouts. 

 

I attached what they said about him before the draft.   I digested a lot on Jamin including post draft -- i listened to three different college coaches talk about him recently including his head coach (Stoops).   And listented to some takes on him from others in podcasts.  Some like Jeremiah and Cosell and J. Reid said he was one of their favorite prospects and they loved watched him.  Overall the pick was fairly well received but not by everyone.  The Giants recently gave up that they had their eye on Jamin at their pick but he was gone.  

 

Listening to his coaches, Jamin comes off with through the roof intangibles.  Team player.  Works likes a maniac.  Smart.  One of the coaches biggest sells about him was how in their eyes he improved incrementally as the season progressed which they attributed to in part to his work ethic and desire to be great.  

 

Listening to the narratives about the pick, it comes off that Rivera was sold on Jamin's potential and character to fullfill his potential.  That seems to be a theme of the draft at large.

 

Forgetting which coach talked about it but one of them talked about the same thing that I highlighted about Jamin on the draft thread which is sideline to sideline speed and open field tackling.  They think he's potentially a monster on that front and that fits this team well because you won't have to shed a ton with a D line like this.  So he can play to his strengths. 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

21 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Scouts 3 and 4 from that Athletic article were more ambivalent about the Jamin Davis pick @Skinsinparadise: https://theathletic.com/2576916/2021/05/10/scouts-discuss-washingtons-draft-jamin-davis-dyami-brown-have-highest-upside/

 

 

The picture I get from the scouts is that Jamin's film is second round caliber but that his Pro-Day workouts inflated his draft stock into the first round.

Yeah, there’s definitely an element of projection - looking at his upside.  If he’d had another season starting in college, he’s quite possibly a top 15 pick next year.  Or maybe not.  Maybe he doesn’t show much growth.  
At this point, you look at his mental makeup - work ethic, character and football IQ and decide if you think it’s worth taking that gamble that he’ll continue to grow.  I think it’s worth it, but I understand the concerns.  
 

To me, it’s a little bit like the Davis Mills talk - that with another year, he was likely a 1st rounder.  The difference is that while they both had inexperience issues (Mills’ manifesting in some poor decision-making), Mills also had the accuracy issues and injury history, while Jamin doesn’t have an analogous weaknesses/concerns.  I realize this is kind of a poor comparison given positional differences.  

[Fresh8686]

Speaking on that work ethic a bit. According to his coaches Jamin Davis was an hour early to every meeting and IIRC spent an additional hour unprompted with his coach asking questions and reviewing game tape. This guy is exactly the workaholic we want leading our LB corps in the future. 
 

Are there false steps and hesitation on his tape? Definitely and it was part of the reason I had him ranked 3rd behind JOK and Zaven, but damn the more research I do on this guy the more I like him and feel safe in having a positive projection about his growth curve. 
 

For those who are wondering why it took him so long to start, the reason why is he had a highly decorated senior playing in front of him who ended up having a stroke tragically. Once that happened it paved the way for Jamin and he got better and better as the season progressed. 
 

 

[Going Commando]

8 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I've seen quite a few interesting things within the last couple of pages. While I think you have a very strong and winning argument that Zaven Collins and JOK were better players in college, I don't think they project as well as Jamin Davis and that's what is important. It's not about how good of a player you have, it's how good will this guy be once he develops and fits into the system. Jamin is a tackling machine, has the size, speed, and length required to be a star player at the NFL level. Jamin Davis's pro day is where I hopped on the train, his numbers are crazy. I just thought he would fall between our first two picks and wasn't sure if he was a target. It's not hard to project him as a 140-150 tackle LB at the next level.

 

I'm not really seeing the reading/reacting issues that some here are claiming. It's definitely not showing up in the stat sheet as he's involved on a lot of plays. 

 

He has a great motor and great play range.  Good open field tackler too, if not a tone setting striker.  Kind of reminds me of Zach Cunningham in that respect, but Cunningham was a lot more instinctive than Jamin.  He compiles stats on effort and range, but these aren't evidence of clean, high quality play.  And he's getting a lot of tackles on downfield coverage reps where he's allowing completions because he's covering grass due to having such a poor feel for recognizing route concepts early in the stem.

 

I'm not worried about Jamin's measurables or his work ethic, I'm worried about his instincts and diagnostic skills.  They're not good yet, and it's the kind of thing that is very limiting for stack LBs.  I think those issues are pretty pronounced in his cut ups.  The situation reminds me a little bit of the 2018 LB class.  Parsons = Roquan.  Jamin = Tremaine Edmunds.  JOK = Darius Leonard.  Tremaine Edmunds was an athletic freak with sketchy instincts and limited experience too.  His potential was through the roof but he's struggled and been frustrating for Buffalo, and the more instinctive and smarter players taken after him like Leonard and Fred Warner have been much better than him.

[Going Commando]

35 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

For those who are wondering why it took him so long to start, the reason why is he had a highly decorated senior playing in front of him who ended up having a stroke tragically. Once that happened it paved the way for Jamin and he got better and better as the season progressed. 

 

I'm just not sure I buy that Chris Oates was too good for Jamin to get on the field (as if he's the only one that could have kept him off), or that Jamin couldn't play because he was still gaining weight, or that the reason he read things slow was because of too many RPOs at the CFB level, or any of the other excuses his coaching staff offered.  For one thing, Oats was a 2018 recruit and Jamin was 2017, Jamin is older and had been in the program a year longer.

 

The Occam's razor explanation for why Jamin didn't play and looked slow when he did was that he just wasn't up to speed and the coaches didn't trust him until they had to play him.  IMO that's what his coaches aren't saying and it's what the scouts who were skeptical about why he didn't play think is the real reason he didn't play until this year.

 

He's got a lot going for him though.  He's a grinder and his coaching staff here is fully behind him and he has a dominant DL in front of him and a pretty good secondary behind him.  If we play him in an overhang role and on the weakside and give him man coverages and blitzes on pass downs, he can hold his own while he gets up to speed.

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

^^ exactly this. Its not about who was the better player on their college team in 2020. Its about who will be the better fit for our program come 2022 or 2023.

 

Those guys are super athletic too.  They are already better than Jamin and they're going to get better in the NFL too.  Can't take it for granted that Jamin projects to be better in years two or three because he's got to get a lot better just to play as smart as they already do.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CurseReversed]

On 5/12/2021 at 1:01 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

Scouts 3 and 4 from that Athletic article were more ambivalent about the Jamin Davis pick @Skinsinparadise: https://theathletic.com/2576916/2021/05/10/scouts-discuss-washingtons-draft-jamin-davis-dyami-brown-have-highest-upside/

 

 

The picture I get from the scouts is that Jamin's film is second round caliber but that his Pro-Day workouts inflated his draft stock into the first round.

Inflated, interesting choice of words but I understand.  Maybe propelled would be better.  Either way it was likely the third part that made him really ascend deep into the first.  i like that word even better.  That third part being attitude and intangibles.  Military background, work ethic, etc...

[Going Commando]

I like that Cosmi chose 62.  No one likes the 60s, good place to get your own number.

 

I like when WRs choose numbers in the 80s too like proper ends.

[Going Commando]

16 minutes ago, CurseReversed said:

Inflated, interesting choice of words but I understand.  Maybe propelled would be better.  Either way it was likely the third part that made him really ascend deep into the first.  i like that word even better.  That third part being attitude and intangibles.  Military background, work ethic, etc...

 

I say inflated because I think your true draft value should be based on your tape.  If you visualize a player's cost like a stock price, there will be peaks and valleys and the true value will be the average factored over time.  For me that average should match up with what they put on tape.  Jamin's cost shot up after his crazy pro day even though it came after the season was over and didn't pertain to his actual play.  We had to buy him at his peak.

 

It's ok, you still own a valuable security buying stocks near their peak if the stock is fundamentally good.  I think we "made money" buying low on Cosmi, you could swap their draft slots and I would feel that we got good value at both picks.  And we perhaps bought a little low on Dyami Brown too.  And I'm not sure, but think we may have bought super low on Shaka Toney, his film has surprised and impressed me like Cole Holcomb and Khaleke Hudson did the previous two drafts.  Kind of feels like he's the type of player you look back on and can't understand why he made it to the seventh.