2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I look at where the rest of our division has done and how they are improving and I am very concerned.  We need homeruns and I just don't really think we hit them on the first two days.  We still have a chance to hit them today, but it gets harder the deeper you get into a class.

Ultimately I agree with this take. Once again I think we did a fine job hitting singles, but we really need more home run type picks. We passed up on one potentially in Hamilton or Williams at 11 by trading down. Now Dotson might be good, but is Dotson + Mathis + Robinson > Williams or Hamilton? I'm not sure. And that's been our issue roster building the last several years. Our overall drafts compared to the league average are pretty good by most metrics, but we just don't get the home run picks.

 

And that's largely because our process and ability to play the value game is just poor. I think our coaches/FO people are decent talent evaluators, but they just don't play the value game well. They're asset management stinks. We needed to pair Rivera with a shrewd executive, like what the Ravens have in Decosta. We interviewed good FO people from Buffalo and Tennessee but ultimately went with boomer yes men because Rivera got along with them. 

 

I'm not as big a Kyle Smith stan as some were but he honestly probably would have done a better job. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

3 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Lol. Mathis had 9 sacks last season, which was #1 in the entire FBS. I'd wager he will be a better pro than Payne when it's all said and done.

Read GoingCommando’s post on him or check out his underlying metrics. Mediocre to bad at everything else but 9 sacks? Seems like an outlier to me that won’t translate but hope I’m wrong. I felt better when i initially saw the sack total but once I dug deeper, i understood what the likely outcome was 

[Chump Bailey]

6 minutes ago, duffy said:

The ravens own just shy of 20% of the fourth round lol. I'd love to have that kind of ammo today

 

That's because they are better than anyone else at this draft stuff by a wide margin. 

[Forever A Redskin]

5 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Read GoingCommando’s post on him or check out his underlying metrics. Mediocre to bad at everything else but 9 sacks? Seems like an outlier to me that won’t translate but hope I’m wrong. I felt better when i initially saw the sack total but once I dug deeper, i understood what the likely outcome was 

 

He will two gap just as good or better than Payne and allow Allen and the edge guys to clean up. Or he will clean up sacks himself when those guys force the QB to step up in the pocket. That's day 1.

 

That's before he gets coached up to refine his technique issues, high pad level, etc. He already has great hand work.

[skinny21]

2 hours ago, CommDownMan said:

 

Feels like a near 180 from last years draft. 

 

This change got me thinking and looking at things from more of a birds eye view.  To be clear, I’m not trying to make excuses for this FO, just trying to view things from a different perspective.  

 

From the lens of an NFL coaching staff, I think there’s some sense (obviously) in having a 3-4 year plan.  You might want to start off with guys that will buy into your system, particularly so future roster additions serve as a pipeline and have a runway ready for them.  And of course, you want to ramp up your team’s competitiveness.  Starting that process early on helps with the buy in (and makes your team more attractive to FAs).  Obviously a team’s qb situation is the ultimate wildcard, but setting that aside for a moment… 

 

 

Year 1 - evaluation.  Bring in a lot of high character, high floor types to put your stamp on the culture and lift the competition level.  You can mix in high ceiling, low floor types, but you have to be able to trust them (ie know they are hard workers and not divas/toxic).  Essentially, build your runway of culture/expectation.  Generally, you want to show some competence (not look like a dysfunctional mess) in order to make it to year two.

 

Year 2 - add talent.  Bring in high upside athletes that need some developing and have to beat out current players (ie aren’t handed jobs).  Maybe some of them do in year 1, but otherwise you’re coaching them up and hoping they pay dividends starting in their 2nd or 3rd years (years 3-4 of the regime).

 

Year 3 - This one’s a bit trickier for me.  If you go for upside type guys that need development, they may not be difference makers until year 4-5 of a regime, and the coaching window might have shut by then.  So maybe you’re looking for immediate contributors that fill out positions of need?  Maybe you blend the two approaches so you get both short and long term help?  Safe picks early and take risks late?  I don’t know.

 

Again, it’s all made a lot more tricky because of the qb position.  If you take a guy in the 1st round year 1, your fate may be tied to whether they develop into a good qb and nothing else matters.  If you wait too long to find one (or start developing one), you’re probably unlikely to make it to year 4 or beyond - ie there’s no hope/promise at the most important position.

And again, that’s just one way to handle things.  Feels like it kind of mirrors what our FO is going for (I’d guess intentionally, but who knows).  Maybe, in hindsight, I am simply looking for a possible explanation for the FOs process, or a reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.  It (my outline above) does make some degree of sense to me though.  Guess we’ll see how it plays out.

 

 

Anyway, a bit off the cuff with all of that, but just some thoughts I wanted to get out.  Back to draft talk!

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’m somewhat in between. I believe in reaches. They exist. Drafting a guy at #10 who was likely a UDFA is a major reach. I don’t believe a guy going 5-10 picks before slotted is a reach. Or within a round if you can’t get back in it and you love the guy is a reach. But 30-35 picks ahead of where they likely go is a reach. Now, the issue there is how do you know?

Yeah, I think I would phrase it differently, I think there might be blown evaluations which lead to players being picked higher, or more correctly, in front of other players who are better prospects than they are.  

 

The point that I always come back to is nobody knows where the player might likely go.  The draft pundits speculate, but every year, there are a bunch of guys who are picked a lot earlier than expected, and a bunch of guys who are picked later.  And you can't just assume that one team is the ONLY team which has a higher grade on them.

 

Another way of looking at it, I don't put any real stock into the mocks or rankings of players, because it's all guesswork. There isn't an accepted "this guy is a 5th round guy" model, because the models are different, and the teams do their own things which might or might not align to the models.

 

Now, you do have to be careful of over-eager drafting.  I remember the story about Jay wanting to draft Quinn in the 5th, and Doug stopped him and they got him in the 7th. (Assuming Doug's story is true.)  That would have ben silly. 

 

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

In our case, our own draft pick told us (Mathis saying third/fourth round is where he thought he’d be going).

I also don't put any stock into anything a player says about where they think they might be going. Corall showed up to the draft first round and was taken in the third.  Players get their information from their agents, and the teams will NEVER tip their hands to the agents.  Because that's like putting out an add in the New York Times about what you're going to do. And teams are not going to tell players either.

 

So Mathis (and others) are getting their information from 2 sources:  Their agents (who won't be told anything specific, unless it's the #1 overall pick) and the same media coverage we see.  

 

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Oddly, television has made me more patient. Specifically the MCU. You watch one of these things and at the end of the movie you think, “that was dumb. Why…?” And then 3 movies later you see why and that movie you watched before is now a classic. The Batman is an example of a movie I left with questions but patience is a virtue.

 

I don’t think we do great with asset management but I do think that Rivera has done a masterful job in taking what amounts to a cruise ship that was split in half and, to use my MCU analogy, he’s holding it together with webbing like Spider-Man. 
 

Interesting analogy.  I like it.

  

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

This franchise is a mess and he’s doing what he can. I don’t think he’s a masterful personnel guy. Never have. But… he’s doing better than almost everyone else under Snyder, imo.

 

I think we drafted 3 good players. That’s what matters most. 
 

But I also understand the negativity. The franchise has been a ****show for 30 years under Snyder. 
 

I just wish people weren’t so… sorry to use a meta word here… toxic about it. 

So here's the thing with the "cycle of negativity:" Dan is a mess, and there is absolutely no question that "BR" (Before Ron) the whole organization, top to bottom, was a complete absolute *** show.  Football side, business side, everything.  Just total crap minus the 4 year oasis that was Gibbs II.  

 

But for me, and I understand why other folks just can't bring themselves to do this, I am drawing a bright red line between "BR" and "AR."

 

I have not seen any reporting that Dan is involved in any meaningful way in any of the football ops. Also, the moves they've made, the hiring's they've made, none of them scream Dan's involvement.   And  don't so much care if he's involved in the business ops, that's Jason Wright's problem.  

 

So until somebody reports otherwise, I'm just going on the premise Ron is running the football side, and Dan's not involved.  I completely acknowledge that might change at any moment.  But it hasn't changed yet.  

 

Which is the only way I can continue to root for the team on the field.  I personally think Ron is a righteous dude.  I think he's a class individual, and a good coach.  

 

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, though I understand why others can't.  

 

And I agree, I really wish there was less toxicity and less negativity, just around the football side.  I honest to God think they're not a bad team.  And I think they will be better next year.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Mathis and Bryant are the two CBs that I'd like to see as well. Wooden is intregiging as well.

 

MCKinnley would be a nice safety or BN guy. Belton too. Beavers at LBer.

 

Not a ton of Oline outside of Kinnard.

 

Still some exciting WRs and RBs out there, but I think that ship has sailed.

 

The TEs that are gonna go today are really exciting.

 

 

For me its between TEs and O line.  I actually got 5 guys I like in this range at TE, my fav being Kolar.  But Otton just behind him.  Ferguson.  Okonkwo.

 

I see them more as late rounders but I do like Cole Turner, Gerritt Price.  Fitzpatrick.

 

The three O lineman that I like left before IMO a drop off:  Hayes, Kinnard, Salyer.

 

LBs for me Beaver or Rodriguez.    Safeties: Tycen Anderson, Smoke Monday, Weatherford, Belton.  CBs:  Bryant, Mathis

 

I like Howell actually in the 4th.  Didn't like the idea earlier in the day, but now, what the heck.

 

The three O lineman that I like left before IMO a drop off:  Hayes, Kinnard, Salyer.

 

I'd love Calvin Austin but no need for him now.

 

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

I just want to say how much I want a QB, either Howell or Strong, in the 4th or 5th round.  

 

Mostly because I think they need 3 QBs who can play on the rosters, and 4 arms in camp, and all 3 of the guys on the roster need to be able to play.  If you can't get one of those guys, that's helpful.  Somewhat insurance if Wentz craps the bed also.

 

And, when TH loses the backup job to a rookie, I'd just absolutely LOVE to see the remaining HIVE member's heads explode.  (That's a joke.  Well.  Kindof.)  

[Commander_N_Chief]

I've had time to sleep on the last few days of the draft.  I think I figured out why this draft is ****ing me off.  It's not overreaching for players because they're all going to be solid players in the league(I even took Mathis on ES Mock...though in 3rd).  It's that this team has taken the Ernie Grunfeld's approach to GM/FO.  He creates a problem for the team and then tries to throw crap at the wall to fix it.

 

FO created a problem bringing in Carolina wideout...overpaid for Samuels knowing Terry would be due for a contract, then he gets hurt and no one is being honest with his progress.  We take Dotson who has a lot of the qualities Samuels does(along with in my opinion a bit of Brown).

 

We release Ion and don't even make an effort with Settle...only to realize you're not going to resign Payne.  Now you have to scramble to create depth and replace Payne's upcoming absence.

 

You bring in a wideout to play running back and then don't understand why he may struggle to both stay healthy and pick up the nuances at the professional level.  So we go and draft one to "take the load off of him."

 

Hopefully today is better **crosses fingers**

Edited April 30, 2022 by Commander_N_Chief

[Mrshadow008]

For those saying that Mathis was a couole round reach or saying but even he was surprised he went that early I present to you John Keim and Mathis agent 

[RWJ]

@Skinsinparadise Have you seen tape on Max Mitchell, OT from Louisiana?  Young and has a ton of talent.  Our OL coach can get the best out of him.  Hoping for Howell with our 1st 4th and Mitchell with our 2nd 4th.  I wonder if another trade down is coming with our 2nd 4th though?

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

2 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

For those saying that Mathis was a couole round reach or saying but even he was surprised he went that early I present to you John Keim and Mathis agent 

I’m sure she and the Commanders want us to believe that 

[RWJ]

Don't ask me why and my eyes can see something different, but Mathis reminds me of Warren Sapp.  He just does.  LOL

[Riggodrill44]

4 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I think that is very early May. I’ll test my memory that it is something like 3rd May. Not far away anyway. We need to throw serious cash at him...

After the draft. I’m thinking tomorrow. 
 

I believe this is Ron’s strategy all along. Wait till after the draft to sign guys in FA.

[primetime441]

24 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ultimately I agree with this take. Once again I think we did a fine job hitting singles, but we really need more home run type picks. We passed up on one potentially in Hamilton or Williams at 11 by trading down. Now Dotson might be good, but is Dotson + Mathis + Robinson > Williams or Hamilton? I'm not sure. And that's been our issue roster building the last several years. Our overall drafts compared to the league average are pretty good by most metrics, but we just don't get the home run picks.

 

And that's largely because our process and ability to play the value game is just poor. I think our coaches/FO people are decent talent evaluators, but they just don't play the value game well. They're asset management stinks. We needed to pair Rivera with a shrewd executive, like what the Ravens have in Decosta. We interviewed good FO people from Buffalo and Tennessee but ultimately went with boomer yes men because Rivera got along with them. 

 

I'm not as big a Kyle Smith stan as some were but he honestly probably would have done a better job. 

 

A more accurate metric is: Dotson + Robinson + 4th > Williams or Hamilton? Mathis was the 2nd round pick and has nothing to do with the trade down.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

@Skinsinparadise Have you seen tape on Max Mitchell, OT from Louisiana?  Young and has a ton of talent.  Our OL coach can get the best out of him.  Hoping for Howell with our 1st 4th and Mitchell with our 2nd 4th.  I wonder if another trade down is coming with our 2nd 4th though?

 

A little bit. RT.  I don't think he fits their profile of athleticism at that spot.  But who knows will see.  If its a tackle I think its more likely Walker or hybrid type like Kinnard, Salyer. 

 

 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Don't ask me why and my eyes can see something different, but Mathis reminds me of Warren Sapp.  He just does.  LOL

I mean they’re both human beings and seem to both breathe air so I can maybe understand that. That’s it tho 

[Forever A Redskin]

One of my faves OL-wise is Zach Tom

 

Dont like that ESPN started the day talking about K. Austin. I know its a stretch that we take another WR but I really like the kid.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Forever A Redskin

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

4 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Don't ask me why and my eyes can see something different, but Mathis reminds me of Warren Sapp.  He just does.  LOL

Whoa… Let’s not go nuts. Go watch some Warren Sapp highlights from college and you’ll change your mind.

[Chump Bailey]

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Don't ask me why and my eyes can see something different, but Mathis reminds me of Warren Sapp.  He just does.  LOL

 

I'd go Wyatt personally for that comp. but whatever he's a good DT.

[757SeanTaylor21]

I think my issue is the fact that we just refuse to take players that can legitly become ah all pro. Passing on jameson Williams for Dotson or hamilton. Passing on Dean for Mathis. The rb I don't mind. Or refusing to trade up for those players. All we do is watch the draft come to us instead of getting the home run hitters. Kenneth walker...we could of traded up to get. Dean in third round we could of traded up to get.. its like the front office thinks we're almost there and WE ARE NEVER ALMOST THERE

Edited April 30, 2022 by 757SeanTaylor21

[RWJ]

Bucs on the clock for a long time. Trade?

 

[Koolblue13]

Anywhere online to watch today?

[Est.1974]

Pick 113 needs to be the top player we desperately want to secure. I don't care about reach value etc within reason. Get that player.

 

After that, trade back, forward or whatever they want.

[Thinking Skins]

11 hours ago, method man said:

It’s a shame that this team missed out on what was one of the deepest drafts I can remember for off ball linebackers. Beavers, Rodriguez and Smith don’t excite me and, while Clark is worth a flyer in the 6th or 7th, he doesn’t help next season. Also missed out on a great safety class, although the FS types were gone by the rd 3 pick.

 

For the 2 4ths, I pray like hell Howell and Winfrey make it to our picks

I'm going to ask the question that was being asked a lot in the pre-draft - how much do we use a ILB or a third safety? I wasn't big on the Hamilton or the ILB picks because I thought we'd be going after somebody who would be playing a third of the snaps. Thats not a given because they could beat our Curl / the FS / Holcomb / Davis to play more on the other downs, but I feel like those positions don't open up our defense the way some of our picks did. 

 

I had/have questions about the DL, but even there he showed he can rush the passer and do some work with his hands, and even then I place an interior DL above a hybrid LB or box safety.

 

I just don't think this game is about the LBs. Sure the defense improved once we learned to use Collins, but I think it could have done well if we had just benched him last year. I am still having flashbacks of his bad play against DJones in NY. .