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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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goskins10

goskins10

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

The fact that MTG won and Herschel Walker is still very much in it terrifies me

 

As someone who lives in GA it is even more terrifying. MGT is one thing. She is from a district that is mostly far right MAGA morons (85% voted trump I believe, or close to that). So she was going to win no matter what she does as long as she spews the right rhetoric. 

 

But Walker is statewide and should not even be a consideratrion. That he will make a run-off speaks volumes to the level of ignorance outside Atlanta. What a POS ansd he will actually be a US Senator if he wins the run-off. I feel fairly confident that he will lose the run-off but as long as he is in it there are no gaurantees. All it takes is a relatively small number of people not be able to make it back to vote again and Walker will win. Can't rely on new registrations either. Can't vote in the run-off unless you were already registered for the first one. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Gotcha.  It seems we’re talking about different things then?  My point is that it’s a win for dems because of the historical context (which I’m guessing you agree with because you didn’t mention it?) - they should have lost massively from that standpoint.  Yours seems to be that we can’t extrapolate on this because of the context involved on the Republican side.  I agree with you.  

 

I’ll only reiterate your point about the youth vote, and add that perhaps we see Republicans heed McConnell’s thinking about running poor candidates (including the election denying aspect)?  Going to be interesting to see how that piece evolves.  

 

2024 is going to be fascinating.  

 


yes. I think a lot of my posts are being taken to mean something they don’t. Which, I think there are several posters that assume I’m a die hard Republican pretending to not be. It is what it is. 
 

there’s a huge difference between:

this what I think will happen and this what I think it means

 

and sharing information taken from other sources. 
 

im doing way more of the later and I’m not sure I’ve done much of anything with the former. 
 

last night was a win for the dems. They avoided a bloodbath. And there’s enough races yet to be called that it’s still in the cards for the dems to actually win in terms of control of the senate and it could be a big deal. We’re already seeing trump candidates failing across the board - that in and of itself is a big deal for most people (regardless of party affiliation)


but - republicans did enough to bring the Biden admin to a halt. 
 

I think a lot of people are trying to draw sweeping conclusions about the entire night. I think, if you drill down, you see very different scenarios all over the place. I think in some states alone - you see different scenarios just within those states. 
 

but it’s pretty common for people to jump to sweeping conclusions of victory after elections. And they’re always wrong. So it’s not unusual. We see people falsely declare the death of the other party all the time. They’re always wrong. 
 

I think the DeSantis/trump thing is interesting. I think a lot of you are clinging to the wrong narrative. 
 

but I also think that’s a difficult conversation to have right now and we need to be further removed from the election before the conversation gets easier and people let go of some of the false narratives. We also need to see some actual moves made - because there needs to be some confirmation of which narratives are actually in play. 

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Fergasun

Fergasun

Posted
Posted

And again... I haven't seen it much but killing off 1.25M voters who vote pretty much 70-30 GOP really hurts them too.  Any more COVID waves will continue to impact their voters more.  

 

GOP should hope Trump is in jail, because I don't see him losing.  His record with destroying GOP politicians in primaries is outstanding.  I think he should try to be House Speaker.... 

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TheGoodBits

TheGoodBits

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tshile said:

That civil war has already started. 
 

The vibe I’m getting is that trumps candidates losing is good for DeSantis. money and backing within the party is paying attention. And from my understanding DeSantis is someone trumpers liked and post-2020 election were getting behind assuming Trump was done as a potential candidate. 


Best case for America honestly is a legit primary between Desantis and Trump to fracture the party. Desantis will need to attack Trump’s character to win (obviously he can’t position himself as a moderate or whatever if he wants to win the primary). So you end up either with a nominee in Desantis that has thoroughly pissed off a huge chunk of MAGA idiots OR you get Trump who has had to, for the first time, deal with serious pushback from Republicans. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Larry said:

I'm not seeing a huge fracture in the GOP in terms of policy. 

And I’m not seeing a huge referendum on policy either…

 

Dems widely ran on

democracy is on the ballot

Abortion rights are on the ballot

 

and when you drill down you find plenty of examples where what mattered was how crazy the gop candidate was - not actual policy differences. 
 

Walker shouldn’t have been close. Oz shouldn’t have been close. Lake shouldn’t win. Etc. 

 

we don’t have a way to know for sure, but I think it’s reasonable to suggest (which - please take “reasonable to suggest” to mean what it actually means…) that had crazies not won primaries these outcomes are very much up for being different. 
 

and if that is reasonable to suggest, then it’s also reasonable to suggest that some of these outcomes are not repudiations of Republican policy. They’re repudiations of Trump-backed crazies. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 


I’ve been saying last night this is the mood within the party. 
 

Desantis 20 point win means a lot internally. 
 

The fractures are real and I think internally they see money and backing going to DeSantis, and they see DeSantis playing well with trump supporters, and they see now as DeSantis’ moment. 
 

question is whether he seizes it or backs down from trump. 
 

But keep telling me I have no idea what I’m talking about :rolleyes:

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@DCGoldPants

@DCGoldPants

Posted
Posted (edited)

So, with a very small majority in the House. Is McCarthy really going to win speaker? Someone is going to challenge him. Also, are the MTG types who are around a little weaker since the biggest losses were from their ranks? If they want to be done with Cheeto Jesus for '24, you don't put his surrogates in any positions of authority or to speak on behalf of your party. 

Edited by @DCGoldPants
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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tshile said:

we don’t have a way to know for sure, but I think it’s reasonable to suggest (which - please take “reasonable to suggest” to mean what it actually means…) that had crazies not won primaries these outcomes are very much up for being different. 
 

and if that is reasonable to suggest, then it’s also reasonable to suggest that some of these outcomes are not repudiations of Republican policy. They’re repudiations of Trump-backed crazies. 

 

I think what you are failing to consider is that (1) the Republican party puts up crazies very regularly, it is part of what the party is now, not some anomaly and (2) Trump-backed crazies are what the GOP base wants and so long as that is the case, they will continue to give Dems an opening in states (and in political conditions) that a "normal" candidate probably would have won, so sure, it's "reasonable to suggest" a different outcome in Fantasyland.. 

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

Posted
Posted

All this criticism of Trump and his picks is going to get him seething, and he likely doubles down on everything that makes him.....Trump.  Assuming he is still announcing that he is running for on the 15th, it is going to be interesting how the GOP handles his shadow over their shoulders for the next 2 years.

 

I don't think Trump wants DeSantis anywhere near his ticket and if I am DeSantis I want to steer clear from Trump myself as well. DeSantis is who he is, but from a "skeletons in the closet" aspect, he seems pretty clean right now.  Saddling yourself up to Trump and all his baggage could put unnecessary wear & tear on your own political career that you don't need, and can simply ride out a fairly drama free term in your red haven of Florida.  From Trump's perspective, I don't think his ego could handle a DeSantis on the VP ticket as so much media would be focused on DeSantis being "groomed" to run in 2028 and Trump would hate that attention. I truly think if DeSantis was Trump's VP he would be watched and followed way closer by the media than any recent VP because of the implied sense that he will be running.   Trump wants a Pence type that will sit in the corner and largely be unseen and unheard from. 

 

Finally, the last time we saw a supposed GOP "alpha dog" try to take on Trump in a primary, we saw him humiliated and he hasn't been in politics since. (Chris Christie).    I think if Trump decides not to run, the nominee is served up for DeSantis, but if I am the GOP leadership, and Trump does decide to run, I am recommending to DeSantis he wait it out for another 4 years.

 

Or....do what they want because they are both awful and i hope they both lose anyway :)

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, TheGoodBits said:

So you end up either with a nominee in Desantis that has thoroughly pissed off a huge chunk of MAGA idiots OR you get Trump who has had to, for the first time, deal with serious pushback from Republicans. 

I think this is false

 

ebery trump person I know loves DeSantis and has been raving about since trump lost 2020. 
 

it will be an issue. But not nearly as big of an issue as you’re suggesting. 
 

and I’m skeptical trump is going to have the money needed. He’s being chided internally for not helping more with the money he has.  Combined with his candidates losing - it’s not a good time for him internally. 
 

the kicker is that even if trump loses to DeSantis in a primary - he’s absolutely the type to run as an independent just to say **** you to DeSantis and the big Republican money people. 
 

and I can’t imagine that DeSantis can win a general where trump is an independent. Almost every vote trump would earn would be a vote that would otherwise go to DeSantis. 

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Renegade7

Renegade7

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, bearrock said:

I would really hate to see the control of the Senate hinge on a runoff in GA.  Another month of stress, blech

 

It's a month of Stacey leading a full court press for Ralph with whole nation watching, stressful yea, but huge reason how he win the last time.

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Larry

Larry

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, tshile said:

And I’m not seeing a huge referendum on policy either…

 

Dems widely ran on

democracy is on the ballot

Abortion rights are on the ballot

 

and when you drill down you find plenty of examples where what mattered was how crazy the gop candidate was - not actual policy differences. 
 

Walker shouldn’t have been close. Oz shouldn’t have been close. Lake shouldn’t win. Etc. 

 

we don’t have a way to know for sure, but I think it’s reasonable to suggest (which - please take “reasonable to suggest” to mean what it actually means…) that had crazies not won primaries these outcomes are very much up for being different. 
 

and if that is reasonable to suggest, then it’s also reasonable to suggest that some of these outcomes are not repudiations of Republican policy. They’re repudiations of Trump-backed crazies. 


Ah. I think we're in agreement. 
 

My takeaway from these, so far is that if the GOP nominates a complete joke, then they lose 49.9-50.1. 
 

Not exactly cause to celebrate. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

Is McCarthy really going to win speaker?

Absolutely. 
 

they want him to strip as many dem committee assignments as possible from dems in retaliation to what was done to certain republicans and their committee assignments. 
 

there is intense bitterness about how it was done. Doesn’t matter if you agree with them - that’s how they feel. And they’re going to put him up there to do it. 

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