Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

[Momma There Goes That Man]

9 minutes ago, tshile said:

Well - we were working with the data we had at the time. The early data was not good for dems. 
 

and while that’s changed a bit there’s still quite a few elections yet to be called and there are plenty of wins for republicans last night. I’m not entirely sure the dems have any victory to declare over last night, except that it wasn’t a total bloodbath…

not sure how you can say that. Dems are likely to hold the senate and imo are likely to gain a seat. 
 

the GOP essentially gerrymandered a house majority before voting even took place and yet it’s currently a toss up with decent change of Dems still winning. 
 

that’s a stunning victory result for Dems even as recently as polls closing yesterday 

[Cooked Crack]

 

[tshile]

1 minute ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

not sure how you can say that. Dems are likely to hold the senate and imo are likely to gain a seat. 
 

the GOP essentially gerrymandered a house majority before voting even took place and yet it’s currently a toss up with decent change of Dems still winning. 
 

that’s a stunning victory result for Dems even as recently as polls closing yesterday 

the gerrymander issue doesn’t change what the actual results are, which is what I’m talking about. 
 

and maybe I’m missing something but everything I’m seeing is says the republicans still likely won out. 
 

If places like the NPR politics podcast are misleading me by being overly rosy about republicans performance then so be it, but I doubt that’s the case. 

[Destino]

 

[spjunkies]

Republicans can keep playing games if they want, but I think last night proved that the citizens are getting tired of their candidates being being clowns. Still too many of them being put into powerful positions, but this is a wonderful sign for the country going forward. 

[tshile]

And @Momma There Goes That Man, with the election denying, voter suppression, abortion, trump, etc issues, I don’t consider democrats not absolutely getting their asses kicked not exactly a win for democrats. And they still have the backdrop of Biden approval ratings. 
 

It looks like dems outperformed expectations. That’s a win. I’m just not sure it’s the win some are making it out to be. 
 

if they got high youth turnout that, to me, would be the biggest win of the night for them because it starts to become a trend and a significant change there would be a huge deal. 

Does anyone actually believe that’s the first time musk voted for a Republican?

[Cooked Crack]

Boebert looking cooked

Edited November 9, 2022 by Cooked Crack

[Ball Security]

13 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

She isn’t qualified for stripping, unless you mean paint off the bottom of an old fishing vessel.

We need a “damn, that’s cold!” reaction button. 🤣

[Fan since a Fetus]

37 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

What did I miss?

Your mom is now dating Bernie Sanders. Weird combo. He’s been feeling her up with some nice Vermont mittens

[tshile]

6 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

Republicans can keep playing games if they want, but I think last night proved that the citizens are getting tired of their candidates being being clowns. Still too many of them being put into powerful positions, but this is a wonderful sign for the country going forward. 

it seems like it’s the clowns that didn’t win. 
 

I forget which races in which states but we were watching situations last night where a candidate that wasn’t a clown was seeing a libertarian 3rd party candidate get 1% of the vote and the Republican winning. But I’m a race, same state, with a crazy on the ticket the libertarian was pulling 3+% and the democrats won the race. 
 

I think for people like me who want things closer to the middle and for the extremes to lose power - that’s a good sign (results wise - doesn’t mean the crazies won’t keep getting on the ballots)

 

for people who are big time dem supporters and would like to see the republicans kicked out of power permanently and have been telling us about the demo shifts mean the eventual annihilating of Republican power, I’m not sure you got what you wanted last night. At all…

 

im seeing a lot of seat counting and the lack of a bloodbath being declared a victory by laypeople on the left. But I’m seeing strategists being concerned if post election analysis about the shifts to the Republicans with black males and Latinos matches pre election polling, the democrats have a huge problem on their hands for 2024. 
 

🤷‍♂️ 

[TradeTheBeal!]

6 minutes ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

Your mom is now dating Bernie Sanders. Weird combo. He’s been feeling her up with some nice Vermont mittens

Theres those brainworms again.

[LadySkinsFan]

24 minutes ago, tshile said:

the gerrymander issue doesn’t change what the actual results are, which is what I’m talking about. 
 

and maybe I’m missing something but everything I’m seeing is says the republicans still likely won out. 
 

If places like the NPR politics podcast are misleading me by being overly rosy about republicans performance then so be it, but I doubt that’s the case. 

 

If you have to "creatively" gerrymander a state's districts to favor one party over another, especially a minority party, then that certainly changes the discussion about minority rule over the majority.

[Cooked Crack]

 

[Captain Wiggles]

48 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

What did I miss?

 

Apparently the youths did turn out to vote, abortion was an issue, and it wasn't a "bloodbath" for the Democrats. 🤭

[skinny21]

21 minutes ago, tshile said:

And @Momma There Goes That Man, with the election denying, voter suppression, abortion, trump, etc issues, I don’t consider democrats not absolutely getting their asses kicked not exactly a win for democrats. And they still have the backdrop of Biden approval ratings. 
 

It looks like dems outperformed expectations. That’s a win. I’m just not sure it’s the win some are making it out to be. 
 

if they got high youth turnout that, to me, would be the biggest win of the night for them because it starts to become a trend and a significant change there would be a huge deal. 

Does anyone actually believe that’s the first time musk voted for a Republican?

It’s fair to have a skeptical/cynical view of the overarching outlook - Republicans screwed themselves in a lot of different ways.  

 

Yet, considering inflation, gas prices, Biden’s approval rating, the fact incumbent Presidents almost always lose control of congress… this was a monumental, historical win for Dems.

 

As I think about it though, if you’re saying it’s more a huge loss for Rebubs, vs a huge win for Dems… I can see your point.

[@DCGoldPants]

 

 

And this fat ****er will still get invited to Sunday morning shows. 

[Ball Security]

36 minutes ago, tshile said:

the gerrymander issue doesn’t change what the actual results are, which is what I’m talking about. 
 

and maybe I’m missing something but everything I’m seeing is says the republicans still likely won out. 
 

If places like the NPR politics podcast are misleading me by being overly rosy about republicans performance then so be it, but I doubt that’s the case. 

NPR is giving a rosy outlook for Republicans?  
 

The House still looks like it's headed for GOP hands, but not by a huge margin. As of 8:30 am ET, Republicans have flipped or are leading in 17 races, while Democrats have flipped or are leading in 10. While votes continue to be tallied, if those results hold, that would only be a net gain of seven seats, on the low end of forecasters' projections. It's also far below the average for a president's first midterm.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1135451246/6-takeaways-from-an-election-night-thats-not-over-yet
 

This has been one of the worst performances by the minority in a midterm in a very long time.

 

 

[tshile]

7 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

It’s fair to have a skeptical/cynical view of the overarching outlook - Republicans screwed themselves in a lot of different ways.  

 

Yet, considering inflation, gas prices, Biden’s approval rating, the fact incumbent Presidents almost always lose control of congress… this was a monumental, historical win for Dems.

 

As I think about it though, if you’re saying it’s more a huge loss for Rebubs, vs a huge win for Dems… I can see your point.

well… we didn’t have a presidential election. We didn’t have 1 nationwide democratic campaign against 1 nationwide Republican campaign. We had (mostly) 1 nationwide democrat campaign against a series of different Republican campaigns. 
 

trying to take some macro view of last night seems super stupid. And I don’t see any actual strategists, on either side, doing that.  I see laypeople that think they know a lot of about politics saying that. 
 

there are many states where just within that state we saw a range of Republican candidates yield different results. 
 

in Georgia we saw Abrams (widely considered darling of the dems and champion of their whole platform and running within the nationwide dem platform) lose, while Walker (considered a terrible candidate on both sides) come close to forcing a runoff. 
 

and the warnock/Walker race came down to a strong enough libertarian vote spoiling the race. I don’t see any reasonable people suggesting that libertarian vote goes to Walker. The idea dems didn’t like warnock and voted libertarian and in a runoff would vote Walker doesn’t make anyways sense. However, the idea R supporters didn’t like Walker and voted libertarian, and would likely vote warnock in a runoff makes a ton of sense. 
 

which begs the question - what happens if the Hop ran a good candidate instead of a ****ty candidate. 
 

Republican strategists have been ****ing about Oz being the candidate the whole time - another race where it’s strongly believed a good candidate had a solid chance to win. 
 

taking this macro view is dumb. Republicans are fractured a bit and you’re seeing different results where non-crazy and non-****ty candidates did well, and crazy/****ty candidate didn’t. 
 

extrapolating that out I see people looking at things on that level, concerned what it means for the dems in 2024, and people simply comparing seat counts completely oblivious to that level of analysis…

[TradeTheBeal!]

 

[PleaseBlitz]

56 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

and while that’s changed a bit there’s still quite a few elections yet to be called and there are plenty of wins for republicans last night. I’m not entirely sure the dems have any victory to declare over last night, except that it wasn’t a total bloodbath…

 

If they hold on and keep the Senate, that is by far the single most important victory that was on the table this cycle.  The GOP getting the House (which was a foregone conclusion) will subject everyone to constant Impeachment Theater that will have absolutely no real impact on anyone's actual life and probably measurably harm the GOP in 2024 when they bring articles of impeachment for "being woke" or whatever nonsense they settle on..  The GOP failing to get the Senate means that Biden can continue to undo the damage to the judiciary that Trump caused by nominating, and the Senate confirming, unqualified far-right-wing federal judges.  If the GOP gets a Senate majority, they may not confirm a single Biden nominee going forward.  If the Dems can keep it, Biden can continue to get judges confirmed (including, hopefully, a SCOTUS seat).

 

As of August, he had been doing well. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/08/09/biden-has-appointed-more-federal-judges-than-any-president-since-jfk-at-this-point-in-his-tenure/

 

 

[tshile]

Oh and Oz and Walker are both widely considered to have earned their nominations on the backs of Trumps endorsement. Which has its own meaning in the larger conversation about what his power within the party is, and how different parts of the party feel about him and whether he’s good/bad for the party. 
 

And plays into the question of trump vs DeSantis in 2024 etc 

[88Comrade2000]

So the gop has only a 7 seat majority in the house. McCarthy will be controlled by the maga caucus. If he gets to be speaker. Sure someone will challenge him.

 

Laxalt has lead in NV. Sure hope outstanding votes help Dems or this could come to Georgia runoff.

 

AZ got close in the governor race. Hobbs still winning but Lake closed that gap.

[tshile]

At least boebert won’t be getting committee assignments. 
 

MTG will get hers back

 

and I expect mcarthy to strip some dems in a retaliation move

Edited November 9, 2022 by tshile

[Bacon]

Clearly, the Roe v Wade overreach galvanized the youth voted and prevented a red wave. It was the best case scenario in terrible circumstances.

 

Also, many of the Republican nominees were clowns.

[bearrock]

6 minutes ago, tshile said:

which begs the question - what happens if the Hop ran a good candidate instead of a ****ty candidate. 
 

Republican strategists have been ****ing about Oz being the candidate the whole time - another race where it’s strongly believed a good candidate had a solid chance to win. 
 

taking this macro view is dumb. Republicans are fractured a bit and you’re seeing different results where non-crazy and non-****ty candidates did well, and crazy/****ty candidate didn’t. 
 

extrapolating that out I see people looking at things on that level, concerned what it means for the dems in 2024, and people simply comparing seat counts completely oblivious to that level of analysis…

 

If GOP was capable of fielding good solid conservative candidates, then they would have little resemblance to the current GOP.  It's important that Trump was rejected in 2020 and that his cronies were rejected in many battleground states yesterday.  The trend of how Trump's brand of politics did yesterday has a macro prism and I believe that's what's important for the country long term.