2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

Lance’s ceiling is through the roof because we see what he does while still needing some development work. 
 

Now, the thing with ceilings is that if they aren’t realized, or close to being realized, they decline with time.

 

The decline can be slow, over years, where they never quite get to where they could have been but were pretty decent all things considered... or it can be rapid, where they have all the potential in the world but it becomes obvious quickly that they aren’t going to reach their original ceiling. 
 

Lance’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s right now, but because his floor is so low he has a very real possibility of a rapidly declining ceiling. But if he can reach his potential... yikes.

 

In terms of skills already possessed and current ability Wilson is my third QB at the moment. I think he uses a LOT of body on his throws but he’s so damn smart. He likes taking risks. Good runner. He reminds me a little of a more mobile,  stronger armed (though not elite arm) and overall better version of Kyle Allen. He has a fairly moderate floor and a good ceiling, too.

 

Lance would be my 3 if you were asking me who I think has high ceiling potential. 
 

I’m not sure which I’d draft. I think I’d lean towards Wilson but can’t say that definitively yet.

Edited October 26, 2020 by KDawg

[Bonez3]

We need so much help on the OL I don't care what spot we land. I'd actually like to win the division just so we don't get tempted by a shiny, new toy. Draft OL/Secondary.

[Anselmheifer]

21 minutes ago, Bonez3 said:

We need so much help on the OL I don't care what spot we land. I'd actually like to win the division just so we don't get tempted by a shiny, new toy. Draft OL/Secondary.

Except for the fact that we also need a QB and LT is a shiny new toy and there is one that looks like a future HOF’er that is going top 3. 
 

I do agree however that we also need OL and secondary. 
 

If we are picking 10-12, Kyle Pitts could look pretty good. 

[Bonez3]

Don't get me wrong... Trevor Lawrence seems to be every bit of a franchise QB. If Joe Burrows can be this good as a rookie, I can't imagine what Lawrence is going to translate to. But, I actually think we real off 3-4 more wins in the next 5 weeks, so that's a pipe dream

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Except for the fact that we also need a QB and LT is a shiny new toy and there is one that looks like a future HOF’er that is going top 3. 
 

I do agree however that we also need OL and secondary. 
 

If we are picking 10-12, Kyle Pitts could look pretty good. 

I think I’d rather take Holland than Pitts if we’re not taking a lineman there. 
 

If going with a pass catcher I’d take Moore if on the board. 

[Anselmheifer]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think I’d rather take Holland than Pitts if we’re not taking a lineman there. 
 

If going with a pass catcher I’d take Moore if on the board. 

I love Moore. 
 

Kdawg, I’ve come around on Fields. The night and day difference between Haskins and Fields in my eyes, other than mobility, is ball placement and quality of the deep ball. Fields just has much better ball placement than Haskins. And, he throws such a great, accurate, catchable deep ball. He would immediately help McLaurin IMHO. 
 

I’d like us to take him and I wouldn’t mind a scenario where we move up. 
 

 

 

[KDawg]

@Anselmheifer this is music to my ears. However, I think that win yesterday is going to wind up taking us out of the Lawrence AND Fields sweepstakes. 
 

Who knows, though. 

[Warhead36]

We aren't getting Lawrence or Fields. We're bad but not bad enough, there are just a ton of god awful teams this year.

 

Best(or worst depending on point of view)case scenario maybe we pick around 5 or 6 and can take Lance or Wilson. I prefer Wilson, Lance is just way too risky.

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

We aren't getting Lawrence or Fields. We're bad but not bad enough, there are just a ton of god awful teams this year.

 

Best(or worst depending on point of view)case scenario maybe we pick around 5 or 6 and can take Lance or Wilson. I prefer Wilson, Lance is just way too risky.

I don’t take either there at this juncture. If I’m dead set on one of them I trade back. Yes, we may lose them, but I’d rather do that than reach on a guy there. 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I’m not sure which I’d draft. I think I’d lean towards Wilson but can’t say that definitively yet.

 

After the win yesterday, I decided to dive into Wilson first.  I got a long way to go, I want to watch 4-5 games and put some thought into it before jumping the gun.

 

I would say my initial impressions are:

 

A.  He's a competitor.   Relentless.  Always trying to make a play.

 

B.  He is likely a good fit for the ball handling stuff that Turner's offense is supposed to be about -- sweeps, end arounds.  He also sells play action well. 

 

C.  He like Mahomes loves throwing off platform.  Shovel passes-off balance, etc. 

 

D.  His accuracy seems good including with tough out routes and the deep ball.  Struggles some with touch with throws in the flat by or outside the numbers -- similar to Haskins on that front. 

 

 

My initial concerns

 

A.  Tough for me to gauge arm strength.  My guess of it at the moment is medium?  Kirk like?   It seems to ebb and flow some.

 

B.  Injuries -- the dude already has a history of it.  He puts his body on the line out there.

 

C. Turnovers -- he reminds me some of Tony Romo where he almost tries to do too much and force things which hasn't burned him in college but might in the pros.

 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

We aren't getting Lawrence or Fields. We're bad but not bad enough, there are just a ton of god awful teams this year.

 

Best(or worst depending on point of view)case scenario maybe we pick around 5 or 6 and can take Lance or Wilson. I prefer Wilson, Lance is just way too risky.

First, we don’t know that our choice won’t be that high. Imagine a McLaurin injury. 
 

Second, teams trade up for QB’s all the time. I’d rather move up for the best QB on my board than spend a 1st on the 3rd or 4th best. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Kdawg, I’ve come around on Fields. The night and day difference between Haskins and Fields in my eyes, other than mobility, is ball placement and quality of the deep ball. Fields just has much better ball placement than Haskins. And, he throws such a great, accurate, catchable deep ball. He would immediately help McLaurin IMHO. 
 

I’d like us to take him and I wouldn’t mind a scenario where we move up. 
 

 

 

 

He looks good there.  But, need to see him against better competition.  That also looked like an offensive line highlight reel.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

First, we don’t know that our choice won’t be that high. Imagine a McLaurin injury. 
 

Second, teams trade up for QB’s all the time. I’d rather move up for the best QB on my board than spend a 1st on the 3rd or 4th best. 

 

Yeah based on what I've seen i am a Fields guy, too.  We are used to taking the 3rd to 4th best QBs in the draft.  That hasn't worked out.  RG3 was the 2nd and at least it worked out for one magical season.  If they can I'd aim high but alas i think good shot a QB needy team ends up with the 2nd pick, I think we got to root for Cincy to get that pick. 

Edited October 26, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

He looks good there.  But, need to see him against better competition.  That also looked like an offensive line highlight reel.

 

Watch him against Clemson in the playoffs last year. It's available on YouTube. 

[Warhead36]

41 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

First, we don’t know that our choice won’t be that high. Imagine a McLaurin injury. 
 

Second, teams trade up for QB’s all the time. I’d rather move up for the best QB on my board than spend a 1st on the 3rd or 4th best. 

I don't mind moving up for a QB either but it depends on who is choosing above us. A lot of these bad teams are also going to want QB. The only team that for sure won't go QB are teams like the Bengals and Chargers who seem to have hit on their guys just last year.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Fresh8686]

I need to see Zach Wilson against better competition, before I'm sold on him being a top 15-20 pick. I love his creativity and understanding of ball placement, but how does that creativity flow when he can't lean on the run game like he has been for reasonable down and distance and the windows are smaller or time in the pocket is shorter? If that get's choked up, than his athletic skills won't buy him the same amount of time the other top 3 QB's have on hand.

 

[philibusters]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

First, we don’t know that our choice won’t be that high. Imagine a McLaurin injury. 
 

Second, teams trade up for QB’s all the time. I’d rather move up for the best QB on my board than spend a 1st on the 3rd or 4th best. 

 

I assume the 1st pick would be very hard to trade up for assuming the team needs a QB.  That said even trading up for the second pick would likely cost something like three 1st rounders.  its doable but is going to handicap you are ability to build around the QB.

[Malapropismic Depository]

Does it seem like the success trend in the NFL lately, involves a dual-threat QB ?

Most of the top teams in the NFL have one -

 

Seattle

Arizona

Baltimore

KC

Buffalo

 

Has it gotten to the point, where you increase your likelihood of success, if you draft/acquire a QB who can run well ?

 

[Riggo#44]

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any young, straight drop back passers. Anyone 25ish and under are mobile

[method man]

2 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

I need to see Zach Wilson against better competition, before I'm sold on him being a top 15-20 pick. I love his creativity and understanding of ball placement, but how does that creativity flow when he can't lean on the run game like he has been for reasonable down and distance and the windows are smaller or time in the pocket is shorter? If that get's choked up, than his athletic skills won't buy him the same amount of time the other top 3 QB's have on hand.

 

 

He was tested by Houston and that went well. They play Boise State 11/6, which should be a good test for him. 

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

After the win yesterday, I decided to dive into Wilson first.  I got a long way to go, I want to watch 4-5 games and put some thought into it before jumping the gun.

 

I would say my initial impressions are:

 

A.  He's a competitor.   Relentless.  Always trying to make a play.

 

B.  He is likely a good fit for the ball handling stuff that Turner's offense is supposed to be about -- sweeps, end arounds.  He also sells play action well. 

 

C.  He like Mahomes loves throwing off platform.  Shovel passes-off balance, etc. 

 

D.  His accuracy seems good including with tough out routes and the deep ball.  Struggles some with touch with throws in the flat by or outside the numbers -- similar to Haskins on that front. 

 

 

My initial concerns

 

A.  Tough for me to gauge arm strength.  My guess of it at the moment is medium?  Kirk like?   It seems to ebb and flow some.

 

B.  Injuries -- the dude already has a history of it.  He puts his body on the line out there.

 

C. Turnovers -- he reminds me some of Tony Romo where he almost tries to do too much and force things which hasn't burned him in college but might in the pros.

 

 

On your concerns, his distance seems enough for an NFL starter. What I'd be curious about is how you gauge his velocity on the intermediate stuff.

 

On injuries, the dude put on serious muscle before this year. That has helped his durability and athleticism (he's become more explosive since). He grew up a basketball player also and says he is now able to dunk after putting on size.

 

On the turnovers, he had 9 picks last year. Some of that may have been due to recovery from shoulder surgery but would love to get your take when you watch his film

 

 

[Fresh8686]

2 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Does it seem like the success trend in the NFL lately, involves a dual-threat QB ?

Most of the top teams in the NFL have one -

 

Seattle

Arizona

Baltimore

KC

Buffalo

 

Has it gotten to the point, where you increase your likelihood of success, if you draft/acquire a QB who can run well ?

 

 

Yup, and that's where college is trending anyways. if you saw the college highlights over the weekend, most of them were of a QB running in touchdowns.

 

1 hour ago, method man said:

 

He was tested by Houston and that went well. They play Boise State 11/6, which should be a good test for him. 

 

On your concerns, his distance seems enough for an NFL starter. What I'd be curious about is how you gauge his velocity on the intermediate stuff.

 

On injuries, the dude put on serious muscle before this year. That has helped his durability and athleticism (he's become more explosive since). He grew up a basketball player also and says he is now able to dunk after putting on size.

 

On the turnovers, he had 9 picks last year. Some of that may have been due to recovery from shoulder surgery but would love to get your take when you watch his film

 

 

 

I'm hoping they can schedule some extra games with higher level competition since BYU is independent. IIRC Houston was able to pressure Zach and fluster him a couple times, till the run game took the pressure off him. I'm not sure if that was just him settling in at the beginning of the game or something deeper. I really like the kid though and see why Drew Brees has taken such a shine to him.

[Warhead36]

Being able to run is important but the best QBs are still fantastic pocket passers. Look at Wilson's accuracy for example. I don't really consider him a running QB, but a pocket passer who is athletic enough to beat you with his legs as well.

 

We'll see if guys like Jackson and Murray will last.

[Darth Tater]

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Except for the fact that we also need a QB and LT is a shiny new toy and there is one that looks like a future HOF’er that is going top 3. 
 

I do agree however that we also need OL and secondary. 
 

If we are picking 10-12, Kyle Pitts could look pretty good. 

Here is the issue I've got with QB. Since Sammy Baugh, we have gone QB 11 times in round one. Norm Sneed was probably the best because he was turned into SJ9 via trade.  Multiple decades of fail and multiple regimes.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Wilson has evolved as passer, with flourishes that have intrigued the NFL, especially after a shoulder injury limited his arm strength last season. Roderick points out how Wilson threw two no-look passes against UTSA, zipping a 16-yard dig while staring at a linebacker and then moved another linebacker with his eyes to complete a 10-yard shovel pass.

“His best talent is his ability to understand when to throw the ball with trajectory,” Roderick said. “And when to throw a back shoulder, hard or soft. When to rope it. When to float it. He understands space and the relationship defenses have on the field.”

His seamless ability to change arm angles is one of the things that has NFL scouts intrigued. One scout said Wilson’s sudden increase in production has given him a rise similar to that of Washington State’s Gardner Minshew and LSU’s Joe Burrow in recent years. In all likelihood, Wilson’s ascent could land him on the cusp of the first round this season.

Wilson is listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, but is considered shorter. One scout said he was a “more athletic” Minshew and sees him as a high-end NFL backup. He’d like to see him against better competition, which is hard because Utah, Michigan State, Arizona State, Minnesota, Missouri and Stanford all disappeared off BYU’s schedule because of COVID-19.

Wilson said that while he’s talking to a few “big agencies” about the NFL draft next year — common for a player of his stature — he realizes the attention can leave as quickly as it arrived.

If he returns in 2021 to face a more daunting schedule — with USC, Arizona State and a home date with Utah among the seven Power Five games — Wilson would be in the mix with UNC’s Sam Howell and USC’s Kedon Slovis for the top quarterback. (Others, inevitably, will emerge in that conversation.)

“He’s got poise under pressure, accuracy and can throw from different platforms,” the NFL scout said. “He has no panic, some moxie and he’s tough. He can really do things with his feet, that’s the stuff you can’t teach. He can play himself higher than what I see him as.”

For Holtz, he left the field with a distinct vision of Wilson’s future: “He’ll definitely play in the NFL.”

 

...Beck trains many high-profile NFL quarterbacks and says that Wilson “has one of the best arms in college football.” While that won’t translate to elite arm strength in the NFL — like the level of Mahomes or Josh Allen — there are plenty of intangibles that will supplement his skill set for smooth NFL translation.

“He just soaks in football all of the time,” Beck said. “When you line them up, it’s a lot of things that you look for — he’s a competitor, has passion, he’s fiery and he has a way to make those flashy plays.”

The flash has returned to BYU, and now the whole country is watching just how high Wilson and the Cougars can climb.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Skinsinparadise