2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Warhead36]

If someone like Parsons or JOK falls to 12-13 ish, do you trade up for him? Both could be game changers for our D and take it to the next level.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, RWJ said:

It will be interesting to see if the WFT attends the UF Pro Day.  A lot of talent but will Scott Turner be there in attendance?

Just don't see Jones dropping into the 2nd round due to the demand for QBs this year.  It also affects Trask.  Yes, he's more of a 3rd rounder but he gets elevated to the 2nd because of demand.  Just a guess. 

 

I agree.    I think Breer ends up wrong and Jones goes before our pick in the first.  I am just talking about how I see him versus where he's going to go.  Qbs often go higher than expected -- sometimes not.  Will see.  

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Darnold is inconsistent.  Trask is consistent.  He was locked in this year and even with a dumpster fire bowl game where the team had clearly quit, he still threw for 4000 yards, 69% completions, 43 TDs, and only 8 INTs on the season.  He is one of the more consistent prospects in the class, far more so than Davis Mills or Jamie Newman and he reached a level of play this season that Kellen Mond has never come close to.  I do think his accuracy was special and his decision making is strong and I think he saw the whole field this year.  He took care of the football, showed off anticipatory playmaking pretty much every game, and he showed toughness and ability to handle pressure and win.  Even his losses this year were highly competitive games where he was dealing and kept them in it despite his team getting dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

 

I give him a pass for the bowl game because I believe his team had quit by that point.  There is only so much you can do under the circumstances.

 

He's the only one of the mid round and below QBs that I think has decent potential to be an NFL starter.

 

Chris Simms really isn't a big fan of Trask for the reasons below:

 

 

[mistertim]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd be shocked. 

 

I think it makes it more likely he goes in the 3rd.    But for me I thought the low 4.6s would feel about right for Jordan.  He's not a contested catches guy or vertical threat so his agility exercises didn't really move me one way or another.

 

He's a dude with short area burst and is a YAC guy from the flat.  Nothing from his pro day made me feel worse about him.  

 

I hope his interview saying the Cowboys are all over him is false.  

 

I suppose 5th or 6th is a bit far to fall, but there are now multiple serious red flags. One is his inability over 3 seasons to stay healthy and now his athleticism being very below average. I could see looking past the injury concerns and taking him in the 3rd based on upside if he knocked the drills out of the park. But laying an egg on that (outside of a decent 40 time) in combination with an inability to stay healthy would make me super wary of taking him with a 2nd or 3rd.

[UK Skins]

What position is Koramoah please? I've gone back a few pages and can't see his name mentioned 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

What position is Koramoah please? I've gone back a few pages and can't see his name mentioned 

That’s JOK

[UK Skins]

That didn't help, KDawg 😳

[Anselmheifer]

11 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

That didn't help, KDawg 😳

Jeremiah Owusu Koramoah. He’s a LB from Notre Dame. Undersized. Maybe 215 pounds. But a speed demon and great in coverage. Regularly covered the slot in college. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Darnold is inconsistent.  Trask is consistent.  He was locked in this year and even with a dumpster fire bowl game where the team had clearly quit, he still threw for 4000 yards, 69% completions, 43 TDs, and only 8 INTs on the season.  He is one of the more consistent prospects in the class, far more so than Davis Mills or Jamie Newman and he reached a level of play this season that Kellen Mond has never come close to.  I do think his accuracy was special and his decision making is strong and I think he saw the whole field this year.  He took care of the football, showed off anticipatory playmaking pretty much every game, and he showed toughness and ability to handle pressure and win.  Even his losses this year were highly competitive games where he was dealing and kept them in it despite his team getting dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

 

I give him a pass for the bowl game because I believe his team had quit by that point.  There is only so much you can do under the circumstances.

 

He's the only one of the mid round and below QBs that I think has decent potential to be an NFL starter.

 

Trask has throws that I think would be picked off in the NFL or end up incomplete.  He doesn't get bailed out always from his WR/TE but got bailed out enough IMO to inflate his stats.

 

But again I think his accuracy is good.  And watching him many times.  I think i've rewatched the Alabama game several times now, I don't see anything special about him including IMO his accuracy is good-not special.  Ditto his decision making.  I am not fixated on the stats.  

 

But if his intangibles are special, I am in if they like him and they take him in the third.

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-why-florida-kyle-trask-not-elite-sec-quarterback

 

While Trask’s 2019 and 2020 seasons are similar in that his box score stats make him out to be better than he is, they each came in different ways. There are a few improved areas for Trask this year, such as making a few throws downfield and avoiding bad decisions. Last year, Trask had the fourth-worst big-time throw to turnover-worthy play differential in the FBS, at -13 (9 to 22). Through three games this season, Trask has nearly matched his big-time throw total from last year (eight) and is on pace to cut his turnover-worthy play rate in half.

 

He has also looked a little more comfortable when under duress; he isn’t a complete statue in the pocket like he was in 2019. For example, Trask has tried to extend a play outside the pocket on 21% of his pressured dropbacks this year — more than double his rate last year. He was once allergic to abandoning the pocket when under pressure, which would result in him taking a sack or forcing a bad throw.

We have still seen that some in 2020 but nowhere to the degree of what it was in 2019, and we are starting to see a little — and I emphasize a little — more playmaking from Trask. I should add that this is an area most first-year starters struggle in before making a leap in Year 2.

There are, however, still a lot of red flags within his game. Most of Trask’s 2020 production has stemmed from scheme, play calling and a slew of playmakers at his disposal. 

 

On throws of 9 yards or fewer downfield this season, Florida’s receiving unit has averaged the most yards after the catch per reception (8.7) and have turned 28% of such catches into an explosive play of 15 or more yards — 10 percentage points higher than any other SEC team. And Trask has generated a 130.4 passer rating on these throws, which also leads the SEC. 

 

Last year, Trask threw to a receiver with open separation (more than a couple of steps from the nearest coverage defender) on 41.1% of his passes. That rate has spiked to 55.5% in 2020. This does not mean his receivers are separating at a higher rate downfield, though. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

Trask is throwing to an open receiver on throws of 10-plus yards in 2020 nearly 10% less often than he did in 2019. This goes to show that coach Dan Mullen has created a lot of short, open throws for Trask and is giving the receivers room to make plays after the catch. And this can also partly explain that vast improvement in turnover-worthy play rate — the scheme is gifting him open receivers.

 

Trask certainly isn't a flat-out bad quarterback. We are trying to say he is just not nearly as good as what the public, box score and Florida’s offensive efficiency are making him out to be. 

Florida’s passing offense is one of the most efficient in all of college football in terms of EPA per pass play. In short, EPA puts yards gained on a play into context — using down, distance and field position — to give the best measure of per-play efficiency. Plays that generate positive EPA are successful plays for the offense.

 

But just because a pass play generates positive EPA doesn’t mean the quarterback made a great throw. By comparing our play-by-play grading to those successful plays, we can verify whether it was the quarterback or ecosystem around him that was largely responsible for the play. 

This is where it really gets interesting with Kyle Trask.

As you can see in the graph above, Trask is tied for 11th in the SEC by percentage of positive EPA pass plays in which he also earned a positively graded throw. 

Now, I understand EPA is not widely adopted and more traditional football fans are not going to lean on this metric. So, let’s dive into another metric that’s more simplistic and more well-known: Explosive pass plays that result in a gain of 15 or more yards. Below is the same type of graph shown above, but instead of EPA, we are looking at an offense's rate of explosive pass plays in which the quarterback received a positively graded throw.

Some may discount positively graded throws as a subjective measure or genuinely not know what the term means. For clarity, here is what constitutes a positively graded throw — courtesy of my colleague Steve Palazzolo:

“Accuracy and decision-making are all baked into the play-by-play grading, with positive grades being earned on passes that lead to first downs and more. The system accounts for the timing and difficulty of the throw while also gauging the decision-making with respect to the quarterback’s progression on a given play. The better the throw, the higher the grade, and passes that earn a +1.0 or better are considered big-time throws. The key to remember is that the result of the play doesn’t change the quarterback's grade, so pinpoint downfield passes that are dropped will still earn the same grade despite showing up as 0-for-1 in the boxscore.”

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I suppose 5th or 6th is a bit far to fall, but there are now multiple serious red flags. One is his inability over 3 seasons to stay healthy and now his athleticism being very below average. I could see looking past the injury concerns and taking him in the 3rd based on upside if he knocked the drills out of the park. But laying an egg on that (outside of a decent 40 time) in combination with an inability to stay healthy would make me super wary of taking him with a 2nd or 3rd.

 

To me the decent 40 time isn't just one egg in the basket with all of them being equal.  For me at least, his speed is what fascinated me not how high he jumps or how much he benches, etc.  He's not a high point the ball/contested catch guy.  He's a throw the ball in the flat and take off with the ball in your hands and break tackle type of guy. 

 

His speed and broad jump were above average.  His cone and vertical and bench press was below average.  If I saw Jordan as a big dude who was about out musciling LBs for the ball and high pointing catches, I'd be bothered but that's not his game.  That's Freiermuth. 

 

 

[RWJ]

 

 

Mac Jones has plenty of arm.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

This seems to be a pretty strong and deep class of IOL as well. Just read up on Alabama's Deonte Brown and he's like IOL 6 or IOL 7 in the rankings and slated for Round 3, and he seems like a potential steal in that range if he can lose a bit of weight. Anyway, whether Scherff is back in 2022 or not, it might be wise to hit an IOL early in the draft if one is BPA. Obviously if Charles is penciled in at LG long-term and the team feels strongly about Scherff inking a long term deal, that pick might be seen as a luxury especially having drafted Ismael last year too.

[Skinsinparadise]

50 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Chris Simms really isn't a big fan of Trask for the reasons below:

 

 

lol, wow I thought I was tough on Trask.  Sims is much harsher.    But I agree with his general point, same one that i've made which is Trask does nothing special.  I think his accuracy is overrated and his stats are inflated.  Sims flat out thinks his accuracy is below average and his stats are the product of some simple throws/concepts that UF ran to death to mask his accuracy issues. 

[mistertim]

12 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

 

Mac Jones has plenty of arm.  

 

That may be true, but I basically ignore QB pro days, unless the guy just can't hit the broad side of a barn. Most decent college QBs can look really good throwing predetermined stuff in shorts. When I watched him on film I see a guy who struggled consistently to drive the ball deep and on out routes.

 

I don't dislike him as a prospect, and I wouldn't be big mad if we took him at 19, but he's not a guy I'd trade up for and I think his limitations from a physical and tools perspective are pretty clear and should be taken into account.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

 

Mac Jones has plenty of arm.  

 

The deep ball isn't the best test for that -- its more about zip in tight windows.  But yeah Jones' arm is decent.  Nothing special though IMO.  I like Mac just don't love him.  what i like about him isn't his arm but his ability to navigate the pocket and his ability to use his eyes/body language to throw off defenders.  Seems like a smart QB. 

 

i am with Chris Sims that the comparison with Trask is off point and that Mac clearly the better talent.   I agree. 

 

I am actually watching his pro day.    I listened to Rapoport before Mac started to throw.  He said the buzz for Mac going early in real but he doesn't think at #3.  

 

 

 

 

 

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The deep ball isn't the best test for that -- its more about zip in tight windows.  But yeah Jones' arm is decent.  Nothing special though IMO.  I like Mac just don't love him.  what i like about him isn't his arm but his ability to navigate the pocket and his ability to use his eyes/body language to throw off defenders.  Seems like a smart QB. 

 

i am with Chris Sims that the comparison with Trask is off point and that Mac clearly the better talent.   I agree. 

 

I am actually watching his pro day.    I listened to Rapoport before Mac started to throw.  He said the buzz for Mac going early in real but he doesn't think at #3.  

 

Really after the 4 and Jones the talent level whether it be arm or smarts or both falls off.  I hope we don't use a 2nd round pick on a QB.  Jones at #19 or get your guy in the 3rd or 4th rounds.   Just me.  

[KDawg]

Trask is a less mobile, weaker armed Sam Darnold.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

FiElDs Is BaD CuZ HEs FrOm OHiO StatE. 

[Darth Tater]

54 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If someone like Parsons or JOK falls to 12-13 ish, do you trade up for him? Both could be game changers for our D and take it to the next level.

Why? 12 is Philadelphia who would have to be so wrong in what they think about those guys for the deal to be acceptable. To get a good deal, you probably also have to believe your smarter than all of those who pick from 13 to 18. If I am better at evaluation than that many guys, I'd likely do better holding onto my picks. If those guys make it past 12, at least one of them will probably still be on the board at 19, anyway.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah I think Tremble and Long both move ahead of Jordan now on a lot of peoples draft boards. I would be fine with any of the three though with a mid to late round pick. Hunter Long is kind of flying under the radar. He has similar or better pro day numbers to Jordan in a bigger package. And he has the frame to bulk up even more. I mean the guy led the league in catches this year for TE's. And the lack of chatter about him probably means teams like the guy. 

 

I am a big Tremble guy, I like Long but not as much.  Tremble's pro day is tomorrow. 

 

Some here are really bothered by Jordan's vertical and him having 17 reps as for benching.  it doesn't bother me.   Long's speed was just about identical.  Her didn't bench.  Long's agility numbers were poor but his explosion numbers were good.

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/college-sports/2021/03/26/boston-college-football-pro-day-recap

Hunter Long

Bench press: Did not participate

Vertical jump: 32.5 inches

Broad jump: 10 feet, 2 inches

40-yard dash: 4.63 and 4.69 seconds

20-yard shuttle: 4.42

Three-cone drill: 7.41

[Skinsinparadise]

Watching Justin Fields' pro day now.  What a freak.  Live arm.  Can run.  He looks to be in perfect shape.  He's throwing some killer long balls with some of them thrown on the move working from both the right and the left. 

 

that would be who I'd take at 3 if I were the 49ers.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Watching Justin Fields' pro day now.  What a freak.  Live arm.  Can run.  He looks to be in perfect shape.  He's throwing some killer long balls with some of them thrown on the move working from both the right and the left. 

 

that would be who I'd take at 3 if I were the 49ers.

It’s who I’d take at 2 if I were the Jets and maybe even 1 if I were Jax. Though it’s hard to pass on Lawrence.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've been consistent on this if I am trading up Fields is that guy.  I know @KDawg is even more hardcore than me on it.  But I am pretty much in line with him on Fields.  

 

Not that i needed a pro day to firm my opinion but watching him just now elevated my excitment level even more.

 

I know i said earlier today I wouldn't trade the farm to move to take one of the top 4 QBs.  But i waffle on that point if its Fields.  I wouldn't trade the farm for Lance or Jones.  But Fields I'd at least consider it.