2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[UK Skins]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

QB DAVIS MILLS, STANFORD

While not the most physically gifted, he’s still a former five-star prospect who has made only 10 career starts.

 

Wow that's got to be a red flag surely?! Ten starts!

[mistertim]

Interesting that we're not going to be at the A&M pro day. Personally I'd take Mond over Mills and Trask. IIRC Chris Simms had him as his 4th favorite QB prospect after Wilson, Lawrence, and Jones.

[HigSkin]

2 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

 

Wow that's got to be a red flag surely?! Ten starts!

 

Limited starts seem to be a theme these day with college QB's.  LOL

[clskinsfan]

I had never even looked at Mills until a couple of weeks ago. And I posted on here if anyone else had. He looks like a legit NFL starter to me. Plenty of arm, seems to process well and some mobility. He is definitely a project and will need to sit for a year or 2. But he looks decent to me. His tape actually reminds me of Daniel Jones in college a little bit in all honesty. 

[Panninho]

 

 

[Going Commando]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Interesting that we're not going to be at the A&M pro day. Personally I'd take Mond over Mills and Trask. IIRC Chris Simms had him as his 4th favorite QB prospect after Wilson, Lawrence, and Jones.

 

Which explains why he thinks the 49ers traded up for Jones instead of the much more obvious conclusion that it was for Fields or Lance.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There are only a couple of us here, but I'm a Trask guy.  I'm not a Mills guy, he was not productive in college and started only a little over a season's worth of games in three years, Mills's resume is late round/UDFA worthy.  Trask is mid-round worthy.

 

I like Trask because he's a dime dropper and he's a gamer.  I think people who already didn't like him are killing him for his bowl game performance, nevermind he was hyper-efficient all year.  But that bowl game was a travesty from Florida.  That whole team had quit and the bowl was perfunctory for them and he struggled under the circumstances.  A more finicky (or savvy) QB prospect would have opted out but Trask is a real gamer and he wasn't going to quit on his team.

 

I think he's got the silky touch and placement/timing on throws all over the field, especially on boundary side throws outside of the numbers.  I think the game slowed down for him this year and he became a great anticipatory thrower who saw the field so well.  Pitts and especially Grimes were big beneficiaries of his growth this year and his ability to make those anticipatory outside throws against single coverage, especially when he had to sit on them to let the window open or place the ball in an atypical spot.  Less aggressive and skilled QBs than Trask move off of them and don't give them the chance to go up and beat that coverage.  And I think Toney was a huge beneficiary of his accuracy and touch because that guy was just a talented nobody prior to this year.  A disappointing what-might-be when a bad QB like Franks was their starter.  Trask had a mind-meld with him and spoon fed him on those YAC opportunities.

 

I do think he has some ability to move his feet and throw a decent ball off balance and he navigates pocket mud well, belying his lack of athleticism.  He is money when he gets to set his feet.  And he is shockingly effective on designed runs, which he did a lot of this year.  He's slow and has absolutely zero elusiveness or ability to change gaps, but he is decisive and strong and just kind of rinos his way to the sticks through whatever gap he's picked out pre-snap.

 

It blows my mind that Mac Jones is considered a first rounder and Trask is considered a fourth rounder despite the fact Trask outplayed him most of the year and showed way more individual playmaking ability when under duress.  I'm not complaining though, let someone else take Jones in the first and give me Trask in the fourth.

 

 

I think Trask goes in the third.  I think Jones is distinctly better than Trask but I hate that I am with the grain on that with just about across the board whether its mock drafters, leaks from personnel guys, anaylitics types, etc.   I like it better when I go against the grain.  I do think the pro Jones narrative gets a bit carried away by them.  I liked Jones (didn't love him though) early during the college season before it became cool.  But I never loved him the way the draft community seems to love him now.    I probably spent more time watching Jones and Trask than any other player in this draft. 

 

I've explained my issues with Trask many times so I don't feel like going back to the well.  The short version of is i don't think he does anything special.  I am not enamored with QBs because they make special throws here and there.  I am a consistency guy.  If I wanted some special plays in the mix, then I'd be beating the drum to trade for Sam Darnold.  He has flashes that are jaw dropping.  But flashes to me aren't enough.   I've seen some of the beauty throws you've touted from Trask.  I even commented on some of them in real time during game days.  But it doesn't really move me in a big way because it doesn't paint the full picture to me.  

 

For me the bottom line is Trask's accuracy and decision making is overrated by some.  It's not that I don't think his accuracy is good or he's a bad decision maker.  But if i am going with a dude without the big arm and without the mobility then I'd want special accuracy and special decision making -- and Kyle to me isn't that.  And I do think its telling that he fell apart the game he played without Pitts and Toney.  And the issue I have in common with him and Jones is they both rely at times on their playmakers who bail them out.  Watching him naked so to speak without those two players to me spoke more than him having an off day.   I think it exposed him. 

 

But if its for a third round pick, I am ok with it.  As i like to say, nobody has decoded the mystery of finding franchise QBs especially in the later rounds so I am not going to pretend I've decoded it. . Trask has some tools to work with.  If I was a betting man, I'd bet against him but I wouldn't put my mortgage on it.  And the opportunity cost isn't crazy if you take a QB in the third round.

 

And Trask does apparently have a key trait in his tool box and I like that about him -- assuming Zampese's take on him which I posted here previously is correct as to Trask's intangibles.   I do put a lot of stock on intangibles especially when it comes to QBs.  I've recited especially before the 2019 draft Bruce Arians' takes on developing a QB from his book.   And one of his key points is he's had talented QBs but some of them fail.  And two key reasons for their failure is lack of preperation on two fronts:  A.  honing their craft to gain consistency which he likened to mastering a golf swing.  B. preparing during the week for games -- and if they don't do it properly the odds are high that a defensive coordinator will outwit them on game day. 

 

So if Trask is good on those fronts.  Shanny said (Gibbs said something similar) he doesn't know about Qbs until he has them in the building and sees how hard they work.  I recall him saying he knew Kirk would pull it off as soon as he had him in the building because of his committment to the craft.  So if Trask has that quality -- that's important to me.  So no complaints from me if they took him in the third.

 

PFF just came out with their updated draft guide.  I pulled up their take on Trask below. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

@Panninho, looks like Brevin's size really kills him.  He jumped much worse than I expected too.  The poor size testing was expected, but I thought he would jump well.

 

He's a Jordan Reed type TE who is going to be relegated to a limited role.  His NFL team needs to understand his limitations and not try and use him like they would the more traditional prospects like Freiermuth and Long.  I think he could have a Jordan Reed-like career where he's a second option workhorse working short yardage and middle of the field windows between the 20 yard lines.

 

This TE class ended up being a little more disappointing than I expected.  It looked like it could be a bumper crop, but Freiermuth got hurt, Jordan tested poorly, and Kuithe and Wiedermeyer stayed in school.  Not even sure if Wiedermeyer was eligible come to think of it, not sure why I expected him to come out this year.

[mistertim]

That pro day plus his injury history is really going to hurt Brevin Jordan. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls into the 5th or 6th. 

[slidegood]

2 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

I’m sorry, but if their two targets are a the least physically gifted prospect in this draft and a god damn third stringer then our future is ****ed because their talent evaluation is scary bad. 

Interesting how we see such a diverse opinion on players.  After watching hours and hours of footage (like all of us here) on quarterbacks during this offseason, Mills stands out to me as the guy (after the big 5) that just looks like an NFL QB.  His easy throwing motion, fluid movement, body positioning, calmness...he looks like an NFL QB and I would be more excited about them nabbing him over Mond, Trask, Newman, et al.  Not saying my conclusion is right, just more a commentary on how difficult this all is trying to analyze prospects.   

[Going Commando]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've explained my issues with Trask many times so I don't feel like going back to the well.  The short version of is i don't think he does anything special.  I am not enamored with QBs because they make special throws here and there.  I am a consistency guy.  If I wanted some special plays in the mix, then I'd be beating the drum to trade for Sam Darnold.  He has flashes that are jaw dropping.  But flashes to me aren't enough.   I've seen some of the beauty throws you've touted from Trask.  I even commented on some of them in real time during game days.  But it doesn't really move me in a big way because it doesn't paint the full picture to me.  

 

Darnold is inconsistent.  Trask is consistent.  He was locked in this year and even with a dumpster fire bowl game where the team had clearly quit, he still threw for 4000 yards, 69% completions, 43 TDs, and only 8 INTs on the season.  He is one of the more consistent prospects in the class, far more so than Davis Mills or Jamie Newman and he reached a level of play this season that Kellen Mond has never come close to.  I do think his accuracy was special and his decision making is strong and I think he saw the whole field this year.  He took care of the football, showed off anticipatory playmaking pretty much every game, and he showed toughness and ability to handle pressure and win.  Even his losses this year were highly competitive games where he was dealing and kept them in it despite his team getting dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

 

I give him a pass for the bowl game because I believe his team had quit by that point.  There is only so much you can do under the circumstances.

 

He's the only one of the mid round and below QBs that I think has decent potential to be an NFL starter.

[clskinsfan]

Yeah I think Tremble and Long both move ahead of Jordan now on a lot of peoples draft boards. I would be fine with any of the three though with a mid to late round pick. Hunter Long is kind of flying under the radar. He has similar or better pro day numbers to Jordan in a bigger package. And he has the frame to bulk up even more. I mean the guy led the league in catches this year for TE's. And the lack of chatter about him probably means teams like the guy. 

[Gurgeh]

46 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

 

Wow that's got to be a red flag surely?! Ten starts!

 

It's not good that's for sure, but the truncated year wasn't exactly ideal for him to show progress. if you're going to take a chance on a mid round QB it might as well be one who looks like he may have untapped potential, rather than someone with plenty of film that shows them to be average.

[mistertim]

48 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I had never even looked at Mills until a couple of weeks ago. And I posted on here if anyone else had. He looks like a legit NFL starter to me. Plenty of arm, seems to process well and some mobility. He is definitely a project and will need to sit for a year or 2. But he looks decent to me. His tape actually reminds me of Daniel Jones in college a little bit in all honesty. 

 

He actually reminded me a bit of Jones too. I see him as much less experienced Daniel Jones with a potentially higher ceiling but also lower floor. Relatively polished mechanics, nice throwing motion, decent arm, good athleticism, will drop dimes but just as often throw head scratchers to very covered (or double covered) guys. IMO he was lucky that he only had 3 INTs from what I've watched. He was bailed out by his receivers on multiple throws.

 

I'm pretty "meh" on him. The fact that he's only started something like 10 games in college is also a big red flag for me. I might consider spending a 4th on him.

[Fresh8686]

Some of these might be repeats, but here are the players Washington has interviewed so far...

 

 

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah I think Tremble and Long both move ahead of Jordan now on a lot of peoples draft boards. I would be fine with any of the three though with a mid to late round pick. Hunter Long is kind of flying under the radar. He has similar or better pro day numbers to Jordan in a bigger package. And he has the frame to bulk up even more. I mean the guy led the league in catches this year for TE's. And the lack of chatter about him probably means teams like the guy. 

 

He's real steady.  Kind of a poor man's Heath Miller.  My complaint about him is mostly that I felt he took too long to build up to speed and that his hands weren't as good as I'd hoped.  Miller was absolutely clutch and I don't feel that same sense of security with Long.  Leading the ACC in catches for TEs shows that he can be a workhorse target, but it doesn't totally sell me on him because most schools have way more talent around their TEs and most TEs just don't get the opportunity to be featured by good college offenses.  But I can look at Long and comfortably say he is a pro TE and at worst, he should be rotation fixture.  But I don't love his upside.

 

Tremble is a different animal.  He's a cypher, but when you see him moving around in pads, the George Kittle-like build and athleticism are hard not to see.  I think George Kittle is going to get Tremble drafted early because he's given the league the notion to chase similar athletes whose college production doesn't warrant early round status.  The risk-reward calculation makes me very uneasy though.  I really wish he had a much better history of production if we're talking about taking him in the second or third.  Second round, we're talking about bonafide studs like Rashod Bateman and Rondale Moore being available.  Third round its guys like Tylan Wallace and Jackson Carman and Spencer Brown.  It would be a leap of faith to take Tremble over them--could pay off huge or it could be a major disappointment.  My instinct is to play it safer.

 

And I'm still liking Kenny Yeboah and Kylen Granson as consolation prize TEs.  Granson is a projected seventh round pick, that feels like true value to me.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Brevin Jordan does not move like Jordan Reed.  Basically no TE's do.  Reed was a route running unicorn at his size.

[Going Commando]

21 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

Some of these might be repeats, but here are the players Washington has interviewed so far...

 

David Moore catches my eye.  I've been searching for the Kevin Dotson IOL prospect who I like this year--mid to late rounder with good film and starting potential.  Moore is the one who my mind keep returning to.  I can only find two games of cut ups for him, but his Senior Bowl was really good and that's got me willing to going out on a limb for him.

 

Kind of going back through Jackson Carman's and Aaron Banks's cutups to see if they could be that guy too.  Gonna watch Sadarius Hutcherson's too after his Pro-day.  Between these guys and Meinerz and Trey Smith, this is a pretty nice mid round IOL class.  Makes me less interested in picking Vera-Tucker at 19.

[Fresh8686]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

David Moore catches my eye.  I've been searching for the Kevin Dotson IOL prospect who I like this year--mid to late rounder with good film and starting potential.  Moore is the one who my mind keep returning to.  I can only find two games of cut ups for him, but his Senior Bowl was really good and that's got me willing to going out on a limb for him.

 

Kind of going back through Jackson Carman's and Aaron Banks's cutups to see if they could be that guy too.  Gonna watch Sadarius Hutcherson's too after his Pro-day.  Between these guys and Meinerz and Trey Smith, this is a pretty nice mid round IOL class.  Makes me less interested in picking Vera-Tucker at 19.

 

He's on my list to watch as well. I find myself often tempted to pick up Spencer Brown and Q. Meinerz with our 3rd Round picks in various mocks and roll the dice on their high athletic upside. I'll need to check out some of the other guys you mentioned as well. We might need a replacement for Scherff if these contract talks don't progress. I feel you on AVT, the depth of this class makes me seriously wish we can somehow trade down and somehow get another 2nd or 3rd.

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

David Moore catches my eye.  I've been searching for the Kevin Dotson IOL prospect who I like this year--mid to late rounder with good film and starting potential.  Moore is the one who my mind keep returning to.  I can only find two games of cut ups for him, but his Senior Bowl was really good and that's got me willing to going out on a limb for him.

 

Kind of going back through Jackson Carman's and Aaron Banks's cutups to see if they could be that guy too.  Gonna watch Sadarius Hutcherson's too after his Pro-day.  Between these guys and Meinerz and Trey Smith, this is a pretty nice mid round IOL class.  Makes me less interested in picking Vera-Tucker at 19.

I like Ben Cleveland a lot as a mid round G project. He got injured at the Senior Bowl. Which is bad luck for him. But the guy is a road grader. He is going to need to improve his fitness. But he gives you a massive frame to work with. 

[mistertim]

J.T. O'Sullivan appears to see some of the same issues with Mills. He points out a couple of really beautiful throws, along with some completely bewildering misses and just dumb plays, some of which have to do with awareness. Seems somewhat unimpressed. Big Daniel Jones vibe for me but much less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It blows my mind that Mac Jones is considered a first rounder and Trask is considered a fourth rounder despite the fact Trask outplayed him most of the year and showed way more individual playmaking ability when under duress.  I'm not complaining though, let someone else take Jones in the first and give me Trask in the fourth.

 

 

As for me thinking Mac Jones >>> Trask.  This could be one of our departure points.  I think its Mac who has better playmaking ability when under duress.  IMO Jones has the quicker feet and navigates the pocket better.  IMO Jones is also superior as to looking off safeties and misdirecting defenses using his eyes and body language.   The reason why I compared Jones to Kirk a long time ago is because of how well they both sell play action. 

 

I see Mac as a late first round/2nd round talent.  Trask as a third round/4th round type.   I think the odds that Trask busts or ends up just a guy is greater than it is for Jones.

 

But like I said I wouldn't hate it if he's in the third round.  I don't really consider myself a Trask hater.  I think I've posted more about him than anyone on this thread.  I posted a lot about him during the college season and I don't recall too many others do the same.     I think he can be a backup in this league.  I don't see him as some disaster. 

 

You watch prospects so I know you are coming from it with your own eyes.  But some (not all) of the takes especially on twitter that I read about Trask sometimes give me the vibe that not everyone is watching him but instead giving the projection of what they perceive an elite or very good pocket passer would have and are defending that type of Qb's ability to succeed in the NFL in spite of not having a rocket arm and mobility. 

 

And the best way for me to explain my take is I don't see Trask as an elite or borderline elite pocket passer.  I think his skills are inflated on that point.  To me he's a good and at times very good pocket passer not elite.  If were an elite pocket passer than I'd be selling him. What PFF points out about his accuracy in the flat being nothing special that jives to me from the games I watched as well. 

 

But as Arians likes to point out that great QBs constantly work on the footwork/arm motion/release and perfect it like a golf swing.  If Trask is that type of guy who puts in that type of work, he can elevate his game.  I wouldn't hate it in the third round.

 

[RWJ]

It will be interesting to see if the WFT attends the UF Pro Day.  A lot of talent but will Scott Turner be there in attendance?

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for me thinking Mac Jones >>> Trask.  This could be one of our departure points.  I think its Mac who has better playmaking ability when under duress.  IMO Jones has the quicker feet and navigates the pocket better.  IMO Jones is also superior as to looking off safeties and misdirecting defenses using his eyes and body language.   The reason why I compared Jones to Kirk a long time ago is because of how well they both sell play action. 

 

I see Mac as a late first round/2nd round talent.  Trask as a third round/4th round type.   I think the odds that Trask busts or ends up just a guy is greater than it is for Jones.

 

But like I said I wouldn't hate it if he's in the third round.  I don't really consider myself a Trask hater.  I think I've posted more about him than anyone on this thread.  I posted a lot about him during the college season and I don't recall too many others do the same.     I think he can be a backup in this league.  I don't see him as some disaster. 

 

You watch prospects so I know you are coming from it with your own eyes.  But some (not all) of the takes especially on twitter that I read about Trask sometimes give me the vibe that not everyone is watching him but instead giving the projection of what they perceive an elite or very good pocket passer would have and are defending that type of Qb's ability to succeed in the NFL in spite of not having a rocket arm and mobility. 

 

And the best way for me to explain my take is I don't see Trask as an elite or borderline elite pocket passer.  I think his skills are inflated on that point.  To me he's a good and at times very good pocket passer not elite.  If were an elite pocket passer than I'd be selling him. What PFF points out about his accuracy in the flat being nothing special that jives to me from the games I watched as well. 

 

But as Arians likes to point out that great QBs constantly work on the footwork/arm motion/release and perfect it like a golf swing.  If Trask is that type of guy who puts in that type of work, he can elevate his game.  I wouldn't hate it in the third round.

 

Just don't see Jones dropping into the 2nd round due to the demand for QBs this year.  It also affects Trask.  Yes, he's more of a 3rd rounder but he gets elevated to the 2nd because of demand.  Just a guess. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Standig who I find pretty plugged in especially as to the draft.  He won a contest years ago for having the most accurate draft.

 

Some nuggets from his last podcast from talking to people around the league among other things. 

 

A.  He echoes Keim's take that they are eyeing a LT in the first round but adds a twist.  He added a twist, if the top 4 tackles/guards (Vera-Tucker, Darrisaw, Slater, Sewell) are gone they likely switch their quest to a different spot and take a LT later.   In 

 

B.  He said that he hears many personnel people have Eichenberg as the 5th tackle and is liked by them more than some mock drafters. 

 

C.  Teams see T. Jenkins as a RT not so much a LT which he thinks takes him out of play for us if they see him similarily

 

D. Koramoah is another dude with great buzz among personnel types.    One actually thinks he's the best defensive player in the draft.  He thinks he goes higher than some project and expects him to be taken before 19 but if he's there he wouldn't rule him out at that pick.

 

E.  He doesn't think its any certaintly they take a Qb later in the draft but heard they have some liking of Davis Mills

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

That pro day plus his injury history is really going to hurt Brevin Jordan. I wouldn't be surprised if he falls into the 5th or 6th. 

 

I'd be shocked. 

 

I think it makes it more likely he goes in the 3rd.    But for me I thought the low 4.6s would feel about right for Jordan.  He's not a contested catches guy or vertical threat so his agility exercises didn't really move me one way or another.

 

He's a dude with short area burst and is a YAC guy from the flat.  Nothing from his pro day made me feel worse about him.  

 

I hope his interview saying the Cowboys are all over him is false.