2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[HoggLife]

9 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’m willing to settle for Antonio Gibson.

For every McLaurin and Gibson you get a Matt Jones and Leonard Hankerson. Id also love to get Gibson and McLaurin in the 3rd round every year. But if that was the case everyone would trade all their 1st and 2nd round picks for 3rd round picks. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

 The Skins' front office was incompetent and a big reason why the team was one of the worst teams in the NFL for 20 years.  

 

The typical teams aren't pulling Terry McLaurin's in the third round.  As Gruden joked about later if they knew he would be that good, he'd have been drafted in the first round.  I was actually a Terry guy before the draft including advocating for him hard the morning before we ended up drafting him.  I liked him a lot as a player but I didn't think he would be super star level great.  Those are rare hits and not common.  The typical third rounder is more likely a bust or a role player versus super star.  And I don't mean just for the WFT but for the whole league.

 

Most of the people who post here, including myself have a decent feel for what kind of prospects will end up in the third round give or take.  Obviously there is no way to know in advance, but yeah If I had to give up a third rounder to land a rare freak TE, one of the best IMO to come out in the last 5 years, I'd do it with not even a whit of hesitation.   I'd have zero cognitive dissonance.  It would be a slam dunk easy choice for me.  I'd run to the podium. 😀

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Oh I'm high enough on Pitts. 

[Skinsinparadise]

I admit I am intrigued to watch Mac Jones in particular at the Senior Bowl.  I am somewhat in the middle of the 2 main camps on the thread about him but lean more to the positive group about him.

 

He's a hard guy for me to get a read on because of everything that works in his favor at Alabama:  blocking, running game, great receivers.    He doesn't have a special arm but IMO he has decent/ok arm strength.  He reminds me of Kirk in one sense that IMO both are really good at selling play action and using their eyes/body language to manipulate safeties.  I think his pocket movement is decent.  He's not elusive but he can readjust his feet quickly when flushed out of the pocket.  

 

Every Qb has bad moments with pressure including Jones but has had some nice moments too showing nifty footwork.   What gets more more than anything is his intangibles are supposedly through the roof.    I can't recall a QB that I was this torn about one way or another.  I see the arguments on both sides on him.  I'll use the Senior Bowl to land on a position on him. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Oh I'm high enough on Pitts. 

 

 

NFL Rumors & Draft News: The Tony Pauline Mailbag (1.20.21)

Which prospects are you most looking forward to seeing at the Senior Bowl?

Mac Jones — I want to see how he does outside the element of all that great talent he was surrounded by at Alabama.

Jamie Newman — needs a big week of practice to salvage his draft stock.

Kenny Yeboah — I will be watching to see how he does in blocking drills. We all know he’s a terrific receiver.

Dillon Radunz and Spencer Brown — two big-time, small-school blockers with a lot on the line. Really looking forward to watching Brown.

Malcolm Koonce — in my opinion, one of the most underrated edge rushers in the draft. I don’t expect him to be drafted until the late rounds. Yet, he’s a very good pass rusher standing over the tackle as well as out of a three-point stance.

Ifeatu Melifonwu — I thought he was the most underrated defensive back at Syracuse and had the most upside of SU’s trio.

 

 

Do you think there are any teams (or know of any teams or NFL rumors) that don’t have Penei Sewell as the top offensive lineman in the draft?

No team I’ve spoken with have any other lineman, offensive or defensive, rated ahead of Sewell.

Why do you think there were so many teams who declined to coach the Senior Bowl? Does the media overstate the value of coaching in the annual event?

It’s more about travel in this day and age, and teams being unable to get entire staffs to Mobile.  

This year, more than ever, it would be a great advantage to coach Senior Bowl players and get to know them considering all the uncertainty about workouts leading up to this year’s draft.

Florida TE Kyle Pitts is now inside your top 5 of NFL Draft prospects. Do you think he could be the first TE selected in the top 7 picks since 2006? Where do you rank him compared to other recent TE prospects?

It’s going to be very tough for Pitts to break into the top 10 this year.  Looking at the teams with selections in that range, several of them need a tight end but they all have more pressing needs.

For comparison purposes, I believe Pitts is the best tight end in the draft since Vernon Davis, but I believe Pitts is more complete than the former sixth pick of the draft. 

 

[DWinzit]

Comparing Jones to Kirk is pretty good.

Hopefully the kid can have a better feel for that pressure from the blind side and win some big games against good teams.

Senior Bowl is a big deal for him to prove he has it without the Bama lineup. I think he shows well, not great but well.

 

I am looking forward to seeing Newman and Ifeatu make names for themselves 

[Koolblue13]

Other than Sherff, is Trent the last offensive first rounder to work out for us?

 

We had to take a guard at 5 for it to work out.

[KDawg]

I’d like to see someone go through and do those success charts but with individual positions rather than groups. I can bet there’s a difference in CB vs S and OT vs OG

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Oh I'm high enough

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

It’s going to be very tough for Pitts to break into the top 10 this year.  Looking at the teams with selections in that range, several of them need a tight end but they all have more pressing needs.

For comparison purposes, I believe Pitts is the best tight end in the draft since Vernon Davis, but I believe Pitts is more complete than the former sixth pick of the draft. 

 

He's a Calvin Johnson type of dominant collegiate receiver.  I think he can go top ten for sure.  It's a matter of BPA with special prospects like him.

[illone]

Im not high on mac jones at ALL. Hard pass for me. 
 

Id take the risk on this guy instead 

 

 

Pitts is an intriguing guy. I could definitely see him falling to 15. 
 

I feel like Owusu going to be the actual pick, though. I have linebacker as the bigger need and if he is there you gotta pull that trigger. 

[PartyPosse]

5 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Other than Sherff, is Trent the last offensive first rounder to work out for us?

 

We had to take a guard at 5 for it to work out.

I mean we haven’t drafted any. Only five since 1980: Scherff, Trent, Samuel, Andre Johnson and Mark May.

[Est.1974]

I’m really not that excited about picking #19. I need to convince myself we are not picking in a dead spot of the round. 

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I mean we haven’t drafted any. Only five since 1980: Scherff, Trent, Samuel, Andre Johnson and Mark May.

Haskins. RG3?

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, illone said:

Im not high on mac jones at ALL. Hard pass for me. 
 

Id take the risk on this guy instead 

 

 

Pitts is an intriguing guy. I could definitely see him falling to 15. 
 

I feel like Owusu going to be the actual pick, though. I have linebacker as the bigger need and if he is there you gotta pull that trigger. 

I keep watching JOK and I keep thinking how good he is but how small he is and how he doesn’t really fit the ILB need we have despite his obvious skills.

 

Though I do think he can bulk up 

[PlayAction]

56 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Haskins. RG3?

I think he meant the only OL players that the Skins selected in the first round.

[KDawg]

It’s pretty amazing that our offensive drafts over the past 30 years we’ve drafted 3 non OL/QB offensive players in the first:

 

2016 Josh Doctson

1995 Michael Westbrook

1992 Desmond Howard

 

Yikes.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, illone said:

Im not high on mac jones at ALL. Hard pass for me. 

 

 

I am not high at all on Mac Jones, I am uncertain.  But I am not low on him either.  I am in between.  Curious to see how he does in the Seinor Bowl without the Alabama Calavary to help him.

 

I'd take Trey Lance too.   But I don't think he ends up in range of our pick.  I doubt our options at 19 will be Mac Jones versus Lance.   I think Lance will be gone top 10.  Jones is a willdcard.  He might be there, he might be not.

 

Jones isn't my top pick right now at 19 by a long shot but i haven't closed the door on him completely the way some have here.  I am curious to see the Senior Bowl.

 

My dream pick right now is a trade up for Pitts if the price is a third and for that to happen he'd need to drop to the teens.  to trade up for Lance, I think you got to up into the top 10, maybe deep up into the top 10 and give up the 2022 first and more.  Will see. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

It’s pretty amazing that our offensive drafts over the past 30 years we’ve drafted 3 non OL/QB offensive players in the first:

 

2016 Josh Doctson

1995 Michael Westbrook

1992 Desmond Howard

 

Yikes.

 

Yeah, that's the point I was getting at. It's seriously unreal. 

[KDawg]

So far my “sleeper” picks somewhere in the draft (they aren’t REALLY sleepers, at least not all of them) but they are... lesser heralded?

 

LT Dillon Radunz

LT Brady Christensen

LB Jabril Cox

WR Marquez Stevenson

WR Dyami Brown

WR Trevon Grimes

WR Seth Williams

QB Shane Buechele

RB Jaret Patterson

DE Jaelin Phillips

S Caden Sterns

 

Still have some positions and guys to go through...

 

Of this list the ones I’d like most are: Buechele, Christensen, Cox, Grimes, Sterns

 

 

[DWinzit]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

It’s pretty amazing that our offensive drafts over the past 30 years we’ve drafted 3 non OL/QB offensive players in the first:

 

2016 Josh Doctson

1995 Michael Westbrook

1992 Desmond Howard

 

Yikes.

 

And like the QB's selected in the first, the all not only disappointed but kinda sucked.

It's no wonder many of us are sketchy on drafting either of these positions early

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So far my “sleeper” picks somewhere in the draft (they aren’t REALLY sleepers, at least not all of them) but they are... lesser heralded?

 

LT Dillon Radunz

LT Brady Christensen

LB Jabril Cox

WR Marquez Stevenson

WR Dyami Brown

WR Trevon Grimes

WR Seth Williams

QB Shane Buechele

RB Jaret Patterson

DE Jaelin Phillips

S Caden Sterns

 

Still have some positions and guys to go through...

 

Of this list the ones I’d like most are: Buechele, Christensen, Cox, Grimes, Sterns

 

This one of my favorite type of posts! Some of these names mean little to me now but will pay way more attention to them moving forward.

I already know I am fully on board with Cox, he is a favorite of mine and I like Stern and Stevenson. 

Can't wait to review Shane, Shane Buechele. lol. 

[mhd24]

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

And like the QB's selected in the first, the all not only disappointed but kinda sucked.

It's no wonder many of us are sketchy on drafting either of these positions early

 

 

I wouldn't say Westbrook sucked.  He was over-drafted, but was a legit NFL player.  Gus was just a bad QB (always would rather throw to the TE for some odd reason) for him.  Once Brad came in, he took off.  Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and 2000 went down the tubes.  

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

I wouldn't say Westbrook sucked.  He was over-drafted, but was a legit NFL player.  Gus was just a bad QB (always would rather throw to the TE for some odd reason) for him.  Once Brad came in, he took off.  Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and 2000 went down the tubes.  

I can give that to you but he was not just a first rounder, he was the 4th pick in the draft. He hardly was worthy of that so wayyyyy over-drafted 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

And like the QB's selected in the first, the all not only disappointed but kinda sucked.

It's no wonder many of us are sketchy on drafting either of these positions early

Eh. I’m not. 
 

I’m sketchy on us reaching for the sake of reaching as we have in the past. But if you get the right guy I’m all in.

 

Now... finding the right guy is the hard part. But as long as I’ve been following the draft (I’ve been heavier the last 3-5ish years? Don’t really recall... but been “in the know and paying attention” for about a decade) our first rounders outside of Williams and Scherff have been questionable on the offensive side.

 

I liked Campbell and Ramsey as potential dudes... but I didn’t see a reason to get them in the first/trade up. Total reach scenarios.

 

I thought Haskins had potential but didn’t like taking him in the first. Was receptive to the idea of him but... his film wasn’t inspiring. 
 

I thought he was a first round physical trait dude and a 3rd or lower mechanics/reads dude. 
 

Doctson I didn’t understand at all.

 

Now, I've been wrong. I’m the first to admit it. But I wasn’t alone in these points. 
 

We may miss moving forward on some guys. It’s normal. But I don’t want to reach for the sake of reaching anymore. That needs to be done with. I don’t want to be surprised at our pick like, “huh. I didn’t see any possible reason that happened! Trading next year’s 2 and a 5 for a back end 1 this year to get a guy many believed is a late second rounder? AWESOME!”

 

I liked the Sweat trade up. But you know what I’d have liked much more? Just drafting Sweat

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He's a Calvin Johnson type of dominant collegiate receiver.  I think he can go top ten for sure.  It's a matter of BPA with special prospects like him.

 

I watched a lot of Brevin Jordan last night, I'll write something up on him later, I like him.  He will be on my list if he falls to our pick in the 2nd.  But the dude isn't a freak the way Kyle Pitts is.

 

As I am going through prospects, I have yet to get over Kyle Pitts.  The dude just looks unstoppable.  He has freakish size, speed, hands, separation skills.  He's the whole pacakage aside from blocking but he's even improved on that front this season compared to the previous one.  To say he'd be a mismatch for LBs and safeties in space would  be an understatment.