BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Renegade7]

@PCS

 

How much y'all want to bet the White House already knew that about the false negative rates to keep the numbers down?

Edited April 10, 2020 by Renegade7

[China]

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary.

 

Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

 

I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.

 

The AEI, CAP, and Harvard plans aren’t identical, but they’re similar. All of them feature a period of national lockdown — in which extreme social distancing is deployed to “flatten the curve” and health and testing capacity is surged to “raise the line.” That’s phase one. Phase two triggers after a set period (45 days for CAP, three months for Harvard) or, in the AEI plan, after 14 days of falling cases and a series of health supply markers.

 

All of them then imagine a phase two, which relaxes — but does not end — social distancing while implementing testing and surveillance on a mass scale. This is where you must begin imagining the almost unimaginable.

 

The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin. Similarly, people would scan QR codes when boarding mass transit or entering other high-risk public areas. And GPS tracking could be used to enforce quarantine on those who test positive with the disease, as is being done in Taiwan.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

[Mr. Sinister]

12 minutes ago, China said:

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary.

 

Over the past few days, I’ve been reading the major plans for what comes after social distancing. You can read them, too. There’s one from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Harvard University’s Safra Center for Ethics, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer.

 

I thought, perhaps naively, that reading them would be a comfort — at least then I’d be able to imagine the path back to normal. But it wasn’t. In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness.

 

The AEI, CAP, and Harvard plans aren’t identical, but they’re similar. All of them feature a period of national lockdown — in which extreme social distancing is deployed to “flatten the curve” and health and testing capacity is surged to “raise the line.” That’s phase one. Phase two triggers after a set period (45 days for CAP, three months for Harvard) or, in the AEI plan, after 14 days of falling cases and a series of health supply markers.

 

All of them then imagine a phase two, which relaxes — but does not end — social distancing while implementing testing and surveillance on a mass scale. This is where you must begin imagining the almost unimaginable.

 

The CAP and Harvard plans both foresee a digital pandemic surveillance state in which virtually every American downloads an app to their phone that geotracks their movements, so if they come into contact with anyone who later is found to have Covid-19, they can be alerted and a period of social quarantine can begin. Similarly, people would scan QR codes when boarding mass transit or entering other high-risk public areas. And GPS tracking could be used to enforce quarantine on those who test positive with the disease, as is being done in Taiwan.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

So... When they said "Another 9/11," they were right (in a way).

[kfrankie]

Here is an interesting stat.  Since 3/22/2020, the rate of increase in the number of infections has decreased on all but 3 days:

 

 

*Note: It appears that 4/5/20 was an outlier, like some of the cases from 4/4/20 should have been counted on 4/5/20 maybe.. According to some experts, this is significant because the "doubling time" of the # of infections is extended (i.e. it was 3 days to 68,647 infections, then 4 days to 144,143, 5 days to 278,913, and likely will be 11 days until 560,000.  So we're not seeing exponential spread. 

 

Strictly from a numbers standpoint, the number of daily new infections has held relatively steady since 4/1/2020:

 

 

A few notes here (mostly my best "uneducated guesses/theories"):

• (1) Considering that national "stay at home" policies went into place in many states more or less in late March, and it takes maybe 5-10 days for symptoms to arise, be reported, and result in a test.
•  
• (2) Perhaps the "leveling off" is a sign that the shelter in place policies are working (i.e. you would expect to see a leveling off of new infections in early April, which is when community spread should drop). 
•  
• (3) A much greater ratio of the new infections we are now seeing reported (between 4/1/20 and 4/9/20), are probably family members infected by another family member during the sheltering phase, as opposed to community spread. In fact, if a husband has it and is sheltering with his wife and two kids, you would expect the wife and kids to become infected
•  
• (4) So once we run through the "new infections from family members" phase (you only have so many you can infect), perhaps we'll begin to actually see a drop in the number of daily infections.
•  
• (5) Remember, the number of infections reported on any given day is likely from people that contracted the virus 5-10 days prior.

Edited April 10, 2020 by kfrankie

[spjunkies]

WTF

 

 

[mistertim]

At least he didn't say "Do it for your baby daddy"

[Larry]

1 hour ago, China said:

I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary.

 

Just pointing out - Those are the plans to reopen the economy from experts.  

 

(And - one thing they all seem to have in common is assuming that the entire country obtains something that doesn't exist right now, and it works perfectly, the first time.)

 

I'm pretty sure that the one we're going to get is the "Open the economy via Royal Decree, and just ignore all the people dying". plan.  

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by visionary

[China]

3 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

Good lord he's stupid.  He doesn't even realize that antibiotics work on bacteria, not viruses.  Presumably, because he doesn't understand the difference between bacteria and viruses.  I guess that's why the virus (something without any intelligence at all) seems "smart" to him.

Edited April 10, 2020 by China

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by visionary

[redskinss]

I can't stand trump and in no way is my opinion of him changing but watching this press conference I honestly can't recall any time I've seen him sound more presidential, (granted that's a ridiculously low bar) is anybody else getting the impression he's trying to soften his approach a little?

 

I mean he told a reporter " that's a fair question" that's completely un trump like, normally he's confrontational and immature he's just not coming off anywhere near as bad as he usually does, at least that's what I'm seeing.

[spjunkies]

Just now, redskinss said:

I can't stand trump and in no way is my opinion of him changing but watching this press conference I honestly can't recall any time I've seen him sound more presidential, (granted that's a ridiculously low bar) is anybody else getting the impression he's trying to soften his approach a little?

 

I mean he told a reporter " that's a fair question" that's completely un trump like, normally he's confrontational and immature he's just not coming off anywhere near as bad as he usually does, at least that's what I'm seeing.

 

Won't last long probably scared of those sinking approval numbers. 

[Jumbo]

@kfrankie

 

i don't see any sources cited (links) for those statistics charts and graphs etc. (not suggesting anything on it)

 

all of you need to cite sources in such posting or explain the source and why you couldn't link to it

 

and everyone posting who sees that happen needs to inform the poster rather than just reply to it and extend the conversation

 

thanks   

[visionary]

 

[PCS]

He was a robot. Reading a lot from script. Still devoid of any empathy even if he tried to sound like it. He sounded like a few things,but presidential wasn't one of them. 

[redskinss]

1 minute ago, PCS said:

He was a robot. Reading a lot from script. Still devoid of any empathy even if he tried to sound like it. He sounded like a few things,but presidential wasn't one of them. 

He's getting confrontational now with Acosta, but yeah I didn't mean to imply he sounded presidential just that it was the closest I had seen him be.

Just feels like he realizes he may need to come off as more professional than usual. 

 

But yes he's still trump and that'll never change.

[Larry]

29 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Checks.  Notes that all three of these tweets were posted by visionary, not by China.  

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

21 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I can't stand trump and in no way is my opinion of him changing but watching this press conference I honestly can't recall any time I've seen him sound more presidential, (granted that's a ridiculously low bar) is anybody else getting the impression he's trying to soften his approach a little?

 

I mean he told a reporter " that's a fair question" that's completely un trump like, normally he's confrontational and immature he's just not coming off anywhere near as bad as he usually does, at least that's what I'm seeing.

He was probably given some sort of medication.

[China]

2 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

He was probably given some sort of medication.

 

Maybe they've lowered his dose of adderall.

[Larry]

25 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I honestly can't recall any time I've seen him sound more presidential

 

I saw him in the Hall of Presidents, in Disney.  

[visionary]

 

[kfrankie]

2 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

@kfrankie

 

i don't see any sources cited (links) for those statistics charts and graphs etc. (not suggesting anything on it)

 

all of you need to cite sources in such posting or explain the source and why you couldn't link to it

 

and everyone posting who sees that happen needs to inform the poster rather than just reply to it and extend the conversation

 

thanks   

 

These are chart and line graph I created myself from figures taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

I've been keeping an excel spreadsheet since the beginning of outbreak tracking the daily increase in cases across the united states (and in MD, by county).  I then take the number of "new cases" for a particular day and divide it by the number of total infections from the prior day to get a "percentage increase" for each day (i.e. the percentage of new cases is based on the increase in infections from the prior day's total).  I cut and pasted the cells from my spreadsheet from 3/23/2020 to 4/9/2020 to create the first chart.

 

The line graph I provided was created by highlighting the column for "new infections" from 4/1/2020 to 4/9/2020, right mouse clicking, selecting "quick analysis," selecting "charts," and then choosing the "Line" option.

 

Believe it or not, not all posters on here simply regurgitate conclusions provided by third party sources in 40 word tweets.  The data is available from the website i reference, or from the Johns Hopkins website (similar figures but not precisely the same).  I've always found that looking at the underlying data, which is much less likely to be biased, performing my own analysis, and checking it for "illogical results," provides me with the best idea of what is truly happening. 

 

I provided these figures/charts because I would like to inject some optimism into this thread, which is sorely needed, and to encourage people to maintain the recommendations of the government authorities on sheltering in place.  It took me over an hour to prepare that post.  Based on what I can see, things will get better. it is just going to take some more time. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

6 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

He was probably given some sort of medication.

His diaper was full.

 

I don’t think anyone speaking about how great they are during a time of tremendous suffering qualifies as presidential.

[redskinss]

26 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

He was probably given some sort of medication.

It's funny you say that because it was my first thought.