Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


China

Recommended Posts

Not quite sure that a massive increase in testing is a magic fixit that will vastly cut the death rate.  

 

While I'm certain that knowledge is better than ignorance, and I suppose that maybe testing will cause people who have the disease buy feel fine to modify their behavior, I'm not certain that it makes that vast a difference.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Larry said:

Not quite sure that a massive increase in testing is a magic fixit that will vastly cut the death rate.  

 

While I'm certain that knowledge is better than ignorance, and I suppose that maybe testing will cause people who have the disease buy feel fine to modify their behavior, I'm not certain that it makes that vast a difference.  

 

 

Considering we have infected asymptomatic people walking around infecting others...I'd like to believe that testing and isolating some of those carriers would lower the infection/death rate.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Considering we have infected asymptomatic people walking around infecting others...I'd like to believe that testing and isolating some of those carriers would lower the infection/death rate.

 

Course, that assumes that such people are part of the "Believes that giving people an infectious, possibly fatal, disease is bad" group.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, China said:

 

Stupid.  You can't even get masks for healthcare workers, how is everybody in the country going to get them to wear?

I had a couple in my shop and I wore one out for the first time going to walgreens today (I have MS, which is why I didn't donate them).  People really kept their distance.  It was pretty cool in a macabre way.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Larry said:

Not quite sure that a massive increase in testing is a magic fixit that will vastly cut the death rate.  

 

While I'm certain that knowledge is better than ignorance, and I suppose that maybe testing will cause people who have the disease buy feel fine to modify their behavior, I'm not certain that it makes that vast a difference.  

 

 

One way to think about it is, say that the test had a false positive rate of 2% (hypothetical number, I have no idea what the false positive rate is).  If we live in a pretend world where there were zero actual cases in the US, and gave the test to everyone in the country, we would have more than 6 million "confirmed cases" in the US.  The death rate of these "confirmed cases" would be very low, because they don't actually have the virus.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Nerm said:

 

One way to think about it is, say that the test had a false positive rate of 2% (hypothetical number, I have no idea what the false positive rate is).  If we live in a pretend world where there were zero actual cases in the US, and gave the test to everyone in the country, we would have more than 6 million "confirmed cases" in the US.  The death rate of these "confirmed cases" would be very low, because they don't actually have the virus.

 

 

and a high false negative test rate would inflate the death rate of the afflicted

 

best to assume everyone is infected until proven otherwise

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

He survived COVID-19. He’s broke. But he thinks America is overreacting

 

CARTERSVILLE, Ga. —  For three days, he was hooked up to an oxygen tube. For six days after that, he was cooped up in a 26-foot RV in a special quarantine camp run by the state of Georgia.


So when Joey Camp, a 30-year-old Waffle House line cook, learned he no longer had COVID-19 and could go home, he figured things were getting back to normal. Immediately, the former National Guardsman started making lunch and dinner plans: all-you-can-eat wings at Hooters? A super burrito from Los Arcos Mexican restaurant?

 

Soon, heavier concerns loomed. The divorced father of two made $10.65 an hour at Waffle House and has lived with friends since being evicted last year from his apartment. After leaving quarantine, he worked just one shift before his boss cut his hours because so few customers were coming in. His other part-time gig, as a party bus driver, went away.

 

“I’m making zero dollars for the foreseeable future,” Camp said. “A person who makes $50,000 or $60,000 a year just isn’t understanding what this means.”

 

“With all the craziness going on in the world, America should show people that this is not something that should shut down countries,” Camp said after wiping his hands at a sanitizing station posted at the entrance of 7 Tequilas restaurant. “We need to be the adults in the room.”

 

Public health officials say that such doubters pose a major obstacle to efforts to reduce the spread of the virus and prevent mass casualties.

 

The coronavirus is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu and can be transmitted by people who are infected but asymptomatic. Even though many cases are mild, especially in the young, widespread infection could lead to hundreds of thousands or even millions of deaths.

 

A libertarian who voted for President Trump in 2016 and plans to vote for him again, Camp compares COVID-19 to the flu.

 

“It’s not going to kill the vast majority of the population,” he said. “People are hearing 3.4% mortality. They’re not hearing the 96.6% survival rate.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

A 3.4% mortality rate would mean more than 10,000,000 deaths.  I guess since he's OK, everybody else should just get over it already.

 

5311b45db9177059bab9ae8a32aa063c.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, China said:

A 3.4% mortality rate would mean more than 10,000,000 deaths.  I guess since he's OK, everybody else should just get over it already.

 

1)  A 3.4% mortality rate, and a 100% infection rate.  

 

2)  And I like the irony of the guy who was in the hospital saying "we need to be the adults in the room", to try to advocate for a policy where we should just say **** it, everybody ignore this thing, cause Joey wants his Waffle House job back.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Nerm said:

 

One way to think about it is, say that the test had a false positive rate of 2% (hypothetical number, I have no idea what the false positive rate is).  If we live in a pretend world where there were zero actual cases in the US, and gave the test to everyone in the country, we would have more than 6 million "confirmed cases" in the US.  The death rate of these "confirmed cases" would be very low, because they don't actually have the virus.

 

 

There's no doubt that more testing is creating more false positives and so lowers the death rate. 

 

But also generally places with a higher testing rate are doing a better job of controlling the virus so their healthcare system isn't being overwhelmed.  The other that we've seen some of in the US is people that don't get tested get a lot worse quickly and die.  Having people probably means you're just doing a better job getting them the care they need in general.

Edited by PeterMP
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FanboyOf91 said:

Hope he's been in communication with the governo-...you know what, he probably hasn't.

 

He probably hasn't been in contact with any doctors, either.  Or he did, and ignored them.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

on the same (today's) smerconish i noted earlier, he had a stanford phd researcher who with his colleagues had a piece in the wsj and who are trying to establish more accurate takes on  the mortality rates....they are emphasizing how little of the needed data we have so far....they also address the issue of comparative damage, global emphasis, including deaths, that may/do occur from extreme (they use the term "universal") quarantine as a result of economic consequences and of course there is attention to "which leads to the greatest suffering, disease or shutdown" discussion

 

i'm posting this partly for this reason: when  i saw this one of the thoughts i had was "i bet this gets posted under the "it's being exaggerated" take that is popular in "conservative" circles..and were someone to do that without making this part clear it might be the last post they make in these threads if not the forum...so this may save someone in a different way :)

 


the doctor made it clear their work is not to suggest disagreement with the basic measures being taken in this country for restriction of spread and they do not question the validity of or the need for very real and serious concern....he emphasized that several times and smerconish tired to reinforce the same...but it's another reason they are desperate to get more valid and complete data in order to weigh the consequences of global economic reaction which is a real thing of course

 

 

while what i'm about to say predates this pandemic, i will say it now..while ego often rules, not everyone is equal in expertise in everything, durr...i may be more militant about this fact, valuing the people here who have relevant professional standing behind what they say on any given matter and have a real history of being credible overall on their factual/professional knowledge here vs the regular internet forum pontificator

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jumbo said:

i just started watching the recording, but this morning's smerconish  was featuring "positivity" a the fist story i saw was cool enough to psot, so i found an article on it---it can be helpful to remember how decent, creative, and resilient many humans can be at times

 

 

Love Smerconish.  He also has a radio show, 9a, to 12pm on SiriuxXM radio.  Also, love his producer, TC.

 

Designer masks and gowns, why not.  

Edited by Rdskns2000
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cooked Crack said:

 


Every approval/disapproval poll on this right now is utterly meaningless. We are still in the warm up act of what is coming our way and I don’t think a vast majority of the public has internalized this. This country will look and feel very different six weeks from now.

Edited by No Excuses
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...