The Sisko Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) WHO just declared it a pandemic so no face touching! Edited March 11, 2020 by The Sisko 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClaytoAli Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, twa said: yes, though this has been used on quite a few humans are the members of the military robots? or worse the lizard people as described in the movie "Land of the Lost" and TV series "V"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, Llevron said: I have asthma and live with 2 elderly folks. Think I should be avoiding the gym? Like Planet Fitness. Huge gym with lots of people. I have noticed they are wheeling around a cart now full of hand sanitize and disinfectant but im a little worried about the amount of people in there. *im somewhere between waldorf and bowie if that matters I'm not qualified to give advice on this but my gut feeling is don't do things in public unless you have to until there are signs things are under control or understood better. I realize that I may have started coming across panicky the last 2 days. That's because i'm panicking. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Xameil said: I'm not giving anyone a pass...every leader in this world ****ed up...big time...if only there was a global organization that studied health that could have foreseen this and helped prepare the world... WHO in the world could do this type of monitoring... I'm not sure I want to have this conversation with you right now. The Executive branch doesnt want accurate numbers, had cut funding for federal organizations that could get exactly what you are saying, went rogue instead of using WHO test kits (which failed miserably), and sent out an order to take down warning posters from immigration courts. This isnt "only so much you can do" territory at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSkins Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Heard a great analogy about the exponential spread and people not wrapping their heads around it. Imagine a lake with a lily pad. Every day they double. Day 1 one. Day 2 two. Day 3 four and so on. If it takes 100 days for the lake to be covered, what day is it 50% covered?.... Day 99. You won’t even notice them as an issue in the lake until day 90. That’s what the exponential spread is doing. People don’t realize what’s about to happen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: I'm not sure I want to have this conversation with you right now. The Executive branch doesnt want accurate numbers, had cut funding for federal organizations that could get exactly what you are saying, went rogue instead of using WHO test kits (which failed miserably), and sent out an order to take down warning posters from immigration courts. This isnt "only so much you can do" territory at all. The GOP championed cutting CDC and NIH funding. Specifically outbreak prevention. Specifically overseas posts. Specifically in areas that required years of work just to get local people to trust and cooperate with us on these types of things. I raised that as my #2 objections in the thread we were discussing it in when it was happening (#1 being that "it will pay for itself" was based on bull**** math no one with a clue and a shred of honesty would accept) It's not just Trump. The entire Republican party wrote that. That's how they view things like CDC and outbreak prevention. And all the defenders of the tax bill are culpable. So they can spare me the nonsense about caring. And honestly, at this point, between this and the general disdain for academics (science specifically) and their war against information and intellectualism, I consider their opinions null and void at the moment. Don't forget, Trump's go-to move was to push for rate cuts and suspending the payroll tax. Because he's a moron, and the people around him are morons, and his supporters are morons. They need to sit down, shut up, and color; let the adults handle the adulting for a while. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Trump doesn't care. It wouldn't shock me if Trump has Gopers with the virus to get into Democratic neighborhoods and infect as many Democrats as possible. The more Dems die or is unable to come out and vote; the better for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said: Heard a great analogy about the exponential spread and people not wrapping their heads around it. Imagine a lake with a lily pad. Every day they double. Day 1 one. Day 2 two. Day 3 four and so on. If it takes 100 days for the lake to be covered, what day is it 50% covered?.... Day 99. You won’t even notice them as an issue in the lake until day 90. That’s what the exponential spread is doing. People don’t realize what’s about to happen. just to add for clarity: my understanding is the current rate of infected is expected to be: double every 6 days We're only a week or two out from this being a shut-everything-down situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Xameil said: I'm not giving anyone a pass...every leader in this world ****ed up...big time...if only there was a global organization that studied health that could have foreseen this and helped prepare the world... WHO in the world could do this type of monitoring... C’mon, you just have to have faith in our lord and savior, Donald “Stable Genius” Tя☭mp. After all, he had an uncle that went to MIT. It wasn’t hard to see this coming after he disbanded the WH office responsible for this. Mind you, he did this in a time when emerging infectious diseases are increasing in frequency. That’s our Moron-in-Chief.🙄 1 hour ago, Dan T. said: I posted this elsewhere, but I'll repeat myself here. I was at Nationals baseball spring training games last week... I've never seen such diligent hand-washing in a stadium men's room as what I witnessed at the ballpark in West Palm Beach. Guys looked like they were scrubbing up for surgery. The lines for the sinks were as long as the lines for the urinals. You say that like it’s out of the ordinary or something. 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSkins Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, tshile said: just to add for clarity: my understanding is the current rate of infected is expected to be: double every 6 days We're only a week or two out from this being a shut-everything-down situation. Yes understood. I was putting the doubling as an illustration of exponential growth but adjusting it for 6 days you still get there fast in the end, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, ClaytoAli said: are the members of the military robots? or worse the lizard people as described in the movie "Land of the Lost" and TV series "V"? pretty sure you used the term pig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, tshile said: just to add for clarity: my understanding is the current rate of infected is expected to be: double every 6 days We're only a week or two out from this being a shut-everything-down situation. that doesn't make sense certainly group gatherings and controlled access to the severely at risk and medical facilities. plus working and education remotely as much as possible the rest are going to need to keep this thing going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, tshile said: my understanding is the current rate of infected is expected to be: double every 6 days My gut really doesn't think we can make claims like that in the US. Right now, I'm pretty sure everybody (except maybe Trump) would agree that the number of infected is much larger than the number tested positive. Simply because the number tested is to pathetic. How much larger is the real number? Factor of 10? 100? 1000? (Is "double every six days" based on other countries, where there's more testing? I could believe that.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalSkins Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Larry said: My gut really doesn't think we can make claims like that in the US. Right now, I'm pretty sure everybody (except maybe Trump) would agree that the number of infected is much larger than the number tested positive. Simply because the number tested is to pathetic. How much larger is the real number? Factor of 10? 100? 1000? (Is "double every six days" based on other countries, where there's more testing? I could believe that.) Without intervention, it has been doubling around every 6 days elsewhere. The real number of cases here may have an impact in the short term but with doubling every 6 days doesn't really matter. In a month, best case 2, the doubling is going to be insane. They will shut everything down. Might as well do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) There are probably at least double infected with it... I’m pretty sure I read that in some cases the symptoms are benign enough a person might not know they are sick... that’s bound to increase the spread rate. Edited March 11, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 196 dead in Italy. 2300+ cases. That is just bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, redskins59 said: 196 dead in Italy. 2300+ cases. That is just bad where are you getting these numbers? On the 7th they said they had over 4K cases 2 hours ago the number of deaths I saw was 600ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, twa said: that doesn't make sense certainly group gatherings and controlled access to the severely at risk and medical facilities. plus working and education remotely as much as possible the rest are going to need to keep this thing going Wrong. You have to get out in front of diseases like this or it becomes too late to flatten the curve and decrease mortality. That’s how the Chinese stopped it and now the Italians have done the same. I suspect, the rest of us are going to have to take similar measures. My elderly mother-in-law lives with us. My wife and I are going to send her to her sister’s place so that she and the other sisters can be isolated from anything one of us might bring home. We’re fortunate that both of us can work from home. My job has already approved it and I expect hers will soon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said: Without intervention, it has been doubling around every 6 days elsewhere. So, the "doubling every 6 days" projection is based on the assumption that the Trump administration values economic numbers over the health/lives of his citizens? That's the way I'd bet, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 I played Pandemic a lot a long time ago. I think it’s now called plague Inc This was how you killed the world easily every time. Highly infectious virus with no symptoms or a long delay between contagiousness and symptoms showing. I don’t have any reason to believe the conspiracy theory that this was a BioWare fare weapon that escaped the lab. But damn if it doesn’t check all the boxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, tshile said: where are you getting these numbers? On the 7th they said they had over 4K cases 2 hours ago the number of deaths I saw was 600ish Wiki is staying on top of it and pulling data directly from Italian Civil Services. Yesterday was a bad day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Sisko said: Wrong. You have to get out in front of diseases like this or it becomes too late to flatten the curve and decrease mortality. That’s how the Chinese stopped it and now the Italians have done the same. I suspect, the rest of us are going to have to take similar measures. My elderly mother-in-law lives with us. My wife and I are going to send her to her sister’s place so that she and the other sisters can be isolated from anything one of us might bring home. We’re fortunate that both of us can work from home. My job has already approved it and I expect hers will soon too. you just basicaly described what I said.....how long can you do without essential services and support systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, tshile said: where are you getting these numbers? On the 7th they said they had over 4K cases 2 hours ago the number of deaths I saw was 600ish That's the latest one day number.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Wiki is staying on top of it and pulling data directly from Italian Civil Services. Yesterday was a bad day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy Oh... so they aren’t totals. They’re one day numbers. and they don’t relate at all Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsluggo Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said: Heard a great analogy about the exponential spread and people not wrapping their heads around it. Imagine a lake with a lily pad. Every day they double. Day 1 one. Day 2 two. Day 3 four and so on. If it takes 100 days for the lake to be covered, what day is it 50% covered?.... Day 99. You won’t even notice them as an issue in the lake until day 90. That’s what the exponential spread is doing. People don’t realize what’s about to happen. if you are going to use that example... its a HELLUVA lot worse than that 2 to the hundredth power is .... 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000 that would fill quite a bunch of lakes. the surface area of the earth is 5,100,720,000,000,000,000 sq cm .... so if the lily pads are 1 cm each ... then at the end of the 100 days your lilly pads would completely cover 248,523,855,500 (over 248 billion) planet earths (this is my quick back of the envelope... so might be absolutely and completely full of ****?) Edited March 11, 2020 by mcsluggo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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