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Roster analysis - self scout heading into the offseason


MartinC

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I don't see Kerrigan leaving.  He has already told his agent to work on keeping him hear....unsure if that means restructure or less cap impact to the team.  Seems he wants to stay here for the new regime for success...which he deserves for all he's given to our team.   If we can make it work cap-wise to keep him hear until he hangs them up then I would be all for it and champion Dan for getting that done.   Ryan is a great leader, example of dedication and hard work, and wonderful in the community (which Rivera said he wants from his players).  I know RR and JDL don't know Kerrigan personally but they must know his rep and have seen his production on a list for all D players since he started.  His numbers are damn good.

 

I hope we can keep them all.  And to a question early on a big body that can spell Payne in the 1 Tech, couldn't Settle be that guy?

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5 hours ago, RabidFan said:

I don't see Kerrigan leaving.  He has already told his agent to work on keeping him hear....unsure if that means restructure or less cap impact to the team.  Seems he wants to stay here for the new regime for success...which he deserves for all he's given to our team.   If we can make it work cap-wise to keep him hear until he hangs them up then I would be all for it and champion Dan for getting that done.   Ryan is a great leader, example of dedication and hard work, and wonderful in the community (which Rivera said he wants from his players).  I know RR and JDL don't know Kerrigan personally but they must know his rep and have seen his production on a list for all D players since he started.  His numbers are damn good.

 

I hope we can keep them all.  And to a question early on a big body that can spell Payne in the 1 Tech, couldn't Settle be that guy?

Before we hired Ron I was hoping that Kerrigan could squeak out another game or two and break the Skins sack record then trade him the offseason.  However, Rivera wants to build a winning culture and Kerrigan is likely going to be that leader he will be looking for.  

 

Kerrigan was a dominant DE in college and I am sure he is chomping at the bit to put on some extra weight and get in the backfield on the regular.  Really excited about Kerrigan finishing his career as a Skin hopefully....well at least for another season.

 

Also, Settle will get plenty of opportunities, he gets up field quickly, but I view him more as a 3 technique DT.  But he can really play anywhere you want in the interior of the line.  

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14 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm torn on Kerrigan....would love him to stay but if we get Young in the draft where does RK fit? He'd have to take a huge pay cut wouldn't he? 


Rotational backup at both DE spots. And yes I think he will be asked to take a pay cut maybe wrapped in an extension adding a year or two to his deal.

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11 hours ago, MartinC said:


Rotational backup at both DE spots. And yes I think he will be asked to take a pay cut maybe wrapped in an extension adding a year or two to his deal.

That would be my guess as well.  Add guarunteed money (or maybe you’d have to convert this year’s salary to guaranteed $ and then spread it out?)  and extend him for two years - the 3rd year w/ relatively negligible guarantees.  
He either retires here or plays elsewhere for a year or two before coming back here to retire maybe.  

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So this is a roster breakdown at hogs haven with input from pff

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/platform/amp/2020/1/11/21061308/final-2019-ratings-for-all-redskins-offensive-players-per-pro-football-focus?utm_campaign=hogshaven&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

temp_PFF_Offense_Skins.jpg

 

There are a few things that stand out to me, one is that Hentges was leaps and bounds better than Sprinkle (in similar but different roles). I wonder how much we'll be relying on him as just a blocking TE next year vs giving him some of Sprinkle's routes like we did week 17.

 

Also Christian's grade isn't nearly as low as I thought. Not great but he may be a decent backup swing tackle. Martin seemed to be poor. I'm not giving these too much credit v going into next year though because new offense, and these were all young players. We saw similar low scores from Roullier his first season and now he's a legit center. 

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@Thinking Skins Worth noting that Hentges was a rookie, so there’s some promise that he improves (perhaps significantly - not that I can ever see him becoming an elite TE) and has more room to improve than Sprinkle.  
I think I mentioned this before, but his coach with the Colts was teasing the defensive coach that none of his guys could cover Hentges in minicamp.  Of course, I think part of the teasing was that they should be able to cover him because he’s not exactly a high end talent as a pass catcher.  Still nice to read though.  
 

This offseason is going to be fairly crucial, particularly regarding the oline (as has been said ad nauseum).  Bringing back our olinemen, development from our youth (Haskins, Harmon, Hentges, Sims), having Guice and Love in the fold... there would be a lot of promise for this offense.  

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3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I think I mentioned this before, but his coach with the Colts was teasing the defensive coach that none of his guys could cover Hentges in minicamp.  Of course, I think part of the teasing was that they should be able to cover him because he’s not exactly a high end talent as a pass catcher.  Still nice to read though.  

Yeah I remember this article or that stuff coming from their training camp (after we signed him). What impressed me was that he had the hands to catch the balls, more than any route running or other things. I think its (?highly?) unlikely that he becomes anything like a Reed or Davis or Kittle in terms of receptions or threat level but he gives me more confidence than Sprinkle has in three years. 

 

That said, I have to pull back my optimism because before the Dallas game this is a guy who I liked for those same articles but he did have drops and wasn't being asked to run the routes that Sprinkle was. 

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I was looking at advanced team defensive stats for 2019, and it’s actually pretty surprising how close to the top we rank in several pass rushing categories:


-4th in Adjusted Sack Percentage per Football Outsiders

 

-3rd in Pressure Percentage, even while ranking in the bottom 10 in Blitz Percentage. 


So obviously we had no trouble getting to the QB rushing 4. Only problem was, the coverage behind it was terrible (found here) :


-4th highest completion percentage allowed

-2nd highest passing TD percentage allowed

 

-3rd highest passer rating allowed

 

-10th highest adjusted net yards per attempt 

-8th lowest average depth of target, which means teams were completing a bunch of short passes against us 
 

All in all, I wasn’t very surprised that we were great at getting pressure on the QB but terrible in coverage. But I was surprised by the degree to which this was the case. 
 

It just drives home to me how heavily we need to invest in CB, FS and LB this offseason, in that order. You add Chase Young to this pass rush, and add players who can actually cover for 2.5 seconds, there’s no reason we can’t see a turnaround like the 49ers had this year. I would go heavily after a couple press-man CB’s in FA, a rangy FS and an LB who can cover. Anything else would just be a bonus. 

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@HTTRDynasty Yeah, that stuff really backs up my sense of our defensive performance - including some things I actually defended Manusky on.  Thanks for posting them.  
 

It’s very apparent we need to add some quality corner play.  My hope is that Del Rio can at least improve our run D schematically, and then we can (as you say) pick up a quality corner.  Del Rio seemed to suggest we’ll run a lot of zone behind this Dline though, so not sure about the focus on press-man corners.  

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49 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I was looking at advanced team defensive stats for 2019, and it’s actually pretty surprising how close to the top we rank in several pass rushing categories:


-4th in Adjusted Sack Percentage per Football Outsiders

 

-3rd in Pressure Percentage, even while ranking in the bottom 10 in Blitz Percentage. 


So obviously we had no trouble getting to the QB rushing 4. Only problem was, the coverage behind it was terrible (found here) :


-4th highest completion percentage allowed

-2nd highest passing TD percentage allowed

 

-3rd highest passer rating allowed

 

-10th highest adjusted net yards per attempt 

-8th lowest average depth of target, which means teams were completing a bunch of short passes against us 
 

All in all, I wasn’t very surprised that we were great at getting pressure on the QB but terrible in coverage. But I was surprised by the degree to which this was the case. 
 

It just drives home to me how heavily we need to invest in CB, FS and LB this offseason, in that order. You add Chase Young to this pass rush, and add players who can actually cover for 2.5 seconds, there’s no reason we can’t see a turnaround like the 49ers had this year. I would go heavily after a couple press-man CB’s in FA, a rangy FS and an LB who can cover. Anything else would just be a bonus. 


This is a solid breakdown. Thanks. Need to invest heavily in coverage. A competent DC should also help

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14 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Del Rio seemed to suggest we’ll run a lot of zone behind this Dline though, so not sure about the focus on press-man corners.  


When did he say this?  He ran a lot of press-man behind his dominant front 4 when he was in Denver, so I’d be surprised if he elected to run a lot of zone here.
 

Of course, he had some great CB’s in Denver as well. Luckily, CB is pretty deep this year in fee agency. 

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22 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:


When did he say this?  He ran a lot of press-man behind his dominant front 4 when he was in Denver, so I’d be surprised if he elected to run a lot of zone here.
 

Of course, he had some great CB’s in Denver as well. Luckily, CB is pretty deep this year in fee agency. 

It was discussed a bit in the Del Rio philosophy thread.  Something along the lines of the HC and DC both talking about avoiding shot plays and keeping things in front of “us”. 

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2 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

It was discussed a bit in the Del Rio philosophy thread.  Something along the lines of the HC and DC both talking about avoiding shot plays and keeping things in front of “us”. 


To me, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll play zone. That speaks more to only rushing 4 a high percentage of plays IMO.  You can still play Cover 1 or Cover 2 Man and keep things in front of you. 

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18 hours ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

@HTTRDynasty Josh Allen plays with excellent strength/power from his lower body. He attacks with Force. Sweat hasnt found that yet, its been mostly speed and length with him till now. Once Sweat gets it all clicking he's gonna be really good. He did finish with 7 sacks and 50 tackles so he wasnt shabby...

Just think what Sweat could do with a defensive coordinator that allows him to rush the passer.Look at Preston in Green Bay.I believe Sweat is a better player than Preston.I look forward to seeing him take a huge step in 2020.Not to mention he may be playing across from the best d-end prospect to come out college recent memory.

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I would encourage you all to go on Youtube and watch highlights of Reuben Foster....he hits about as close to the way Sean Taylor did as anyone I've seen. I think he could be the most overlooked player of all on our roster. I am excited to see him in a Skins uniform.

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18 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I would encourage you all to go on Youtube and watch highlights of Reuben Foster....he hits about as close to the way Sean Taylor did as anyone I've seen. I think he could be the most overlooked player of all on our roster. I am excited to see him in a Skins uniform.

I hope the kid is going to be 100% 

The injury he has/had seemed pretty severe. Does anyone actually have news on his recovery?

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25 minutes ago, Mpvanskins said:

I hope the kid is going to be 100% 

The injury he has/had seemed pretty severe. Does anyone actually have news on his recovery?

 

Reuben Foster is also needs alot of help in terms of staying out of trouble.  Hopefully, Redskins will get professional and real help in his life off the field figured out. 

 

I believe with 100% of my heart that the previous regime would not have been able to help out a player like Reuben Foster.  I hope the coaching staff that is coming in will provide Foster with "Alabama-Saban" like structure so he can get back on track... 

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1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

I would encourage you all to go on Youtube and watch highlights of Reuben Foster....he hits about as close to the way Sean Taylor did as anyone I've seen. I think he could be the most overlooked player of all on our roster. I am excited to see him in a Skins uniform.


You have to play to be overlooked and his career has been as injury plagued as you can get.

 

Most here should be aware of his absolute stud level of talent. The question with him

is his availability. 
 

He is not someone the team should be counting on.

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