Roster analysis - self scout heading into the offseason

[Voice_of_Reason]

21 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I hear you on the concerns with the durability of Guice and Love coming off a significant injury. But they both have a lot of talent.

 

My feeling is rolling with them is worth the risk and if they go down you can always find a serviceable back somewhere. Unless AP just falls off a map I think we are OK at back.

 

If Guice can’t stay healthy again next year though and given it’s the last year of APs deal I can see RB being a major need going into the 2021 offseason. You can’t fix everything in one year.

I’m not suggesting cutting them.  But you can’t count on them.  
 

AP is a good backup plan, I guess.  But I personally would prefer to have another young guy in the wings in the event Guice or Love just can’t stay healthy.  I have more faith in Love at this point because Guice hasn’t actually finished more games than he’s started.  And while he has extraordinary talent, if the availability continues to be an issue, you need a longer term backup plan than AP.

[MartinC]

42 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’m not suggesting cutting them.  But you can’t count on them.  
 

AP is a good backup plan, I guess.  But I personally would prefer to have another young guy in the wings in the event Guice or Love just can’t stay healthy.  I have more faith in Love at this point because Guice hasn’t actually finished more games than he’s started.  And while he has extraordinary talent, if the availability continues to be an issue, you need a longer term backup plan than AP.

Yeah I get the concern - I just think we go in with AP, Guice and Love as the top options. I’ve no doubt we will sign a low tier free agent and maybe draft a back late as well just to give us some bodies. If Love or Guice can’t prove their health next year I think we try to draft someone to be the long term in 2021. We have too many needs in other places to spend resources on a back this year IMO.

[BraveWarrior]

I love this topic, Martin. 

 

My biggest concern on offense is probably RB, where we have some talented players, but they can't stay healthy. TE is also a position of need, as Reed and Davis are almost certainly gone. O Line is always a concern. Need 2 new tackles, and competition at center wouldn't hurt.  

 

On defense - I said as soon as we knew the 4-3 would be back that we are going to need an imposing tackling machine at MLB, and a real leader of men, since the MLB is the QB of the defense.  I don't think that type of player is on our roster right now. As for FS - if Nicholson was consistently as solid as he has (very) occasionally shown, we'd be okay, but he's not. Unless Del Rio can coach him up, we need to upgrade there.  

[skinny21]

14 hours ago, carex said:

 

he's still likely to be the 4th DT.  It's basically the amount of playing time he might see vs another potentially valuable player

Well, for one, if Payne or Ioannidis gets injured, he’s suddenly likely getting a lot of snaps.  Two, I’m not sure he’s shown enough to be worth more than a layer round pick - which almost certainly isn’t worth it.  And 3, he’s a factor for when our other dlinemen are up for new contracts - like do we pick up Allen’s fifth year option or let him walk, move Ioannidis to starting 3 tech, and Settle becomes the top depth player.  
 

Lastly, as I said, I think we should see what we have with these guys under Del Rio.  If Settle plays more or has an uptick in production, his trade value goes up (even if he only has one year left on his rookie contract).  
 

Now, it could be that part of the reason you’re thinking about this is because we have Brantley/Hester as RFAs, but I have zero feeling for what these guys bring to the squad and they’re both FAs next year (if we even tender them).  
This is a different situation from trading Kerrigan when we (should/hopefully) have Young and Sweat as starters and guys that have shown something as depth - Anderson, McKinzey and Orchard.  
 

Speaking of trading Kerrigan, this draft doesn’t seem very strong on pass rushers - could help us get value there...

[Anselmheifer]

11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

Speaking of trading Kerrigan, this draft doesn’t seem very strong on pass rushers - could help us get value there...

 

I don't think we would get much for a 30-something year old pass rusher coming off of IR with a career low in sacks. I would be fine with moving him, but I think he sticks around as a valued backup and a culture guy. 

 

Scherff, and I know there will be disagreement over this, I would not resign. Let him go get a huge contract and take the comp pick. He's 28 and he's injured all the time now. And, he plays guard. If we do keep him, it's critical that we have him on a team friendly contract that we can front load and get out of after 2-3 years. This DL is going to be expensive to keep together and we are going to have to eventually pay McLaurin and Haskins. I would rather continually draft interior OL than keep a ton of money tied up there. 

[carex]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Well, for one, if Payne or Ioannidis gets injured, he’s suddenly likely getting a lot of snaps.  Two, I’m not sure he’s shown enough to be worth more than a layer round pick - which almost certainly isn’t worth it.  And 3, he’s a factor for when our other dlinemen are up for new contracts - like do we pick up Allen’s fifth year option or let him walk, move Ioannidis to starting 3 tech, and Settle becomes the top depth player.  
 

Lastly, as I said, I think we should see what we have with these guys under Del Rio.  If Settle plays more or has an uptick in production, his trade value goes up (even if he only has one year left on his rookie contract).  
 

Now, it could be that part of the reason you’re thinking about this is because we have Brantley/Hester as RFAs, but I have zero feeling for what these guys bring to the squad and they’re both FAs next year (if we even tender them).  
This is a different situation from trading Kerrigan when we (should/hopefully) have Young and Sweat as starters and guys that have shown something as depth - Anderson, McKinzey and Orchard.  
 

Speaking of trading Kerrigan, this draft doesn’t seem very strong on pass rushers - could help us get value there...

 

you can add Jordan Brailford but you need to substract Ryan Anderson.  He's the one OLB likely to remain an OLB in the new system

 

I think we'll at least pick up Allen's option.  Expense or not better to keep the better player.  Also, you can trade player for player

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, carex said:

 

you can add Jordan Brailford but you need to substract Ryan Anderson.  He's the one OLB likely to remain an OLB in the new system

 

I think we'll at least pick up Allen's option.  Expense or not better to keep the better player.  Also, you can trade player for player

True on Anderson, though we just don’t know what they’ll do there.  Didn’t include Brailford because he hasn’t shown anything (not that he’s had a chance yet).  
 

As for Allen, it wouldn’t be about keeping the better player (they don’t play the same position even), but more about his downturn in production and whether they will feel like he’s worth paying.  My hunch is he is and they will, especially after a year under Del Rio, but my point was if they put Io as the starting DT (if Allen leaves), then Settle becomes the primary rotational lineman - or at least Payne’s backup if he can’t play 3/5 tech.  Point being, for different reasons there is a good chance Settle becomes more valuable to us as time goes on.  
With all of that said, sure, if you can trade Settle for a solid starter at a position of need, it may well be worth it.  
 

 

@Anselmheifer I agree that they probably don’t trade Kerrigan - he’s a hard worker, a solid talent and a team player.  
 

I’m for re-signing Scherff though.  With a young qb, Rivera wanting to run the ball, and not wanting to rebuild, I don’t see him leaving.  
 

Money is an issue, though I think they can afford him and re-sign important guys down the line as long as we don’t go too crazy in FA.  Smith off the books next year, Kerrigan probably also gone in 2021, Reed, Norman and Richardson should be gone this year or next, etc.  We have a good amount of guys to pay in the next few years, but a lot of youth (ie rookie contracts), and not many positions to fill via FA.  That last point is debatable, but I’m guessing beyond an expensive corner, we’re looking at mostly a few moderate signings - some combo of TE, LT, FS, and ILB maybe.  
For reference, we had 8 guys making more than 6mil totaling about 105mil. 
Smith (gone by 2021)

Norman (gone in 2020 or 2021)

Reed (gone in 2020, maaaybe 2021)

Williams (probably gone in 2020 or 2021)

Collins (stays)

Kerrigan (gone in 2020 or a FA in 2021)

Moses (stays most likely, though maybe gone in 2021)

Richardson (possibly gone in 2020 or, more likely 2021)

So, we plenty of cap space now, the chance to roll over cap, and the fact we’ll probably be down to 1-3 guys making over 6 mil by 2021.  Point being, I believe we should have plenty space to re-sign our own for the next few years.  

[MartinC]

20 hours ago, carex said:

 

you can add Jordan Brailford but you need to substract Ryan Anderson.  He's the one OLB likely to remain an OLB in the new system

 

I think we'll at least pick up Allen's option.  Expense or not better to keep the better player.  Also, you can trade player for player

It will be interesting to see what happens with Anderson. 2 down SAM is my guess but the thought of him in coverage is frightening.

 

There may not be a spot for him.

[KDawg]

38 minutes ago, MartinC said:

It will be interesting to see what happens with Anderson. 2 down SAM is my guess but the thought of him in coverage is frightening.

 

There may not be a spot for him.

 

 

 

He can play SAM on tendency run downs (your 2-down example). He can also play 7-technique DE. He is a good enough rusher that you want to set him loose.

 

I'm also interested to see how creative Del Rio gets.

 

With Kerrigan, Anderson, Sweat, Allen (who can play a 5-tech), Payne (who is a moderately good pass rusher despite being a 1-tech), Ioannidis (may be our best interior rusher) and likely Young, you can put almost any combination of those guys on the field in 3rd and long situations where they can pin their ears back.

 

Young can play inside in that scenario (as demonstrated against Clemson). It's not a place you want him hanging regularly. I bet Kerrigan could as well. Sweat likely, too, even if it's just so he can get his hand up in a throwing lane. 

 

There is a lot of versatility in our pass rushers and I hope we start to use it to our advantage.

 

Having said all of that, I think what you're saying above (correct me if I'm wrong) is strictly in terms of "starter"/significant play time role place. And that I agree with. He'll play, but situationally. 

[MartinC]

Yeah on Anderson specifically I think his role will be a run down specialist OLB. Obvious run downs/short yardage.  If he’s playing 7 tech someone got hurt during a game but his flexibility to play that position in a pinch because he’s active is a positive.

 

Ultimately though to me he is a tweener.  He’s not big enough not a good enough pass rusher to play 7 tech and lacks the athleticism and instincts in coverage to play OLB in a 4-3.

[KDawg]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

Yeah on Anderson specifically I think his role will be a run down specialist OLB. Obvious run downs/short yardage.  If he’s playing 7 tech someone got hurt during a game but his flexibility to play that position in a pinch because he’s active is a positive.

 

Ultimately though to me he is a tweener.  He’s not big enough not a good enough pass rusher to play 7 tech and lacks the athleticism and instincts in coverage to play OLB in a 4-3.

 

He's also a fullback!

 

[MartinC]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

He's also a fullback!

 

 

Hey - the more you can do ...

[skinny21]

I suppose Anderson is athletic enough (maybe moreso if he sheds a little bit of weight) to handle a short zone as a SAM.  More than Kerrigan anyway (I think).  I’d take him off the field in nickel though... unless we go with a dline of lighter pass rushers on occasion.  If I had to pick a spot for him ATM though, I’m guessing he’ll back up Young/Sweat.  

I’ve brought him up a few times now, and I completely understand people writing him off, but I’m very curious to see if JHC has a role on this D.  If so, I’d have to think it’s at the SLB spot, though perhaps if he drops some weight he could serve as a 3rd safety in certain situations (I doubt it though - he’s up to 245 or something).  

Looks like SDH beat him out for nickel/dimebacker role, but I’m not sure that’s a slight on JHC given Dion-Hamilton‘s coverage grade.   Of course, assuming SDH is more of a WILL backer for us next year and JHC projects more to the SAM role, he’ll be competing against a different group of players.  It will be interesting to see if Del Rio looks for more of a rush guy at the position or more of a coverage/run stopper.  JHC isn’t a thumper by any stretch, but he’s a sure tackler.  He’s got the speed and size to run with TEs, but he hasn’t shown much in the way of tight coverage.  
A lot of words for a guy that may not even make the team, but as I said, I’m intrigued by him.

[Chump Bailey]

Reaching out to Sean McVay to see if TE Gerald Everett is available would make sense from my perspective. He's a matchup problem. The TE draft class seems less than desirable, at least on the surface. Could be a good move.

 

Nate Orchard should not be lost in the discussion either regarding potential fit and role.

[jbird2]

4 hours ago, MartinC said:

Yeah on Anderson specifically I think his role will be a run down specialist OLB. Obvious run downs/short yardage.  If he’s playing 7 tech someone got hurt during a game but his flexibility to play that position in a pinch because he’s active is a positive.

 

Ultimately though to me he is a tweener.  He’s not big enough not a good enough pass rusher to play 7 tech and lacks the athleticism and instincts in coverage to play OLB in a 4-3.

Is He our next Lorenzo Alexander?

 

[skinny21]

3 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

Reaching out to Sean McVay to see if TE Gerald Everett is available would make sense from my perspective. He's a matchup problem. The TE draft class seems less than desirable, at least on the surface. Could be a good move.

 

Nate Orchard should not be lost in the discussion either regarding potential fit and role.

Interesting that Orchard played some SAM at the Senior Bowl (a position he was not accustomed to) and drew praise.  He is a FA, but he’d be an inexpensive re-sign.  Probably a smart one too to give DR some more bodies for that spot... though they may opt for a veteran SLB.  

[MartinC]

4 hours ago, jbird said:

Is He our next Lorenzo Alexander?

 

Interesting - I though of Loz when I was typing about Anderson. I think Alexander was better but same kind of Swiss Army knife type player.

[jbird2]

Here is hoping we see a huge jump next year with the LB corps. 

 

[NickyJ]

Trey Quinn needs to be fired today, any personal belongings still on the locker left outside in a cardboard box. People were down on Guice at the draft because of the black mark on his career, enjoying video games. But it turns out Derrius Guice was just the tip of the iceberg.

 

Now we can finally understand why Quinn sucks. It's because he's spiraling out of control by being marginally okay at Fortnite.

 

 

[kingdaddy]

On 1/4/2020 at 11:01 PM, BraveWarrior said:

I love this topic, Martin. 

 

My biggest concern on offense is probably RB, where we have some talented players, but they can't stay healthy. TE is also a position of need, as Reed and Davis are almost certainly gone. O Line is always a concern. Need 2 new tackles, and competition at center wouldn't hurt.  

 

On defense - I said as soon as we knew the 4-3 would be back that we are going to need an imposing tackling machine at MLB, and a real leader of men, since the MLB is the QB of the defense.  I don't think that type of player is on our roster right now. As for FS - if Nicholson was consistently as solid as he has (very) occasionally shown, we'd be okay, but he's not. Unless Del Rio can coach him up, we need to upgrade there.  

Reuben Foster? Isn't he an option at MLB? If his head is on straight and with Jack D coaching him up he could be a great find imo.....

[skinny21]

7 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Reuben Foster? Isn't he an option at MLB? If his head is on straight and with Jack D coaching him up he could be a great find imo.....

It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out with our backers.  
At WILL, you have SDH and Foster as possibilities.  Perhaps JHC in the mix for a backup role? 
At MIKE, there’s Holcomb and Foster.

At SAM, Anderson, Brailford, McKinzey, JHC and maybe others.  
 

One important question is whether Foster or Holcomb can call the defense.  

[KDawg]

Copy and pasted from the other thread:

 

So after letting things sink in a little, here would be my lineup (it's not all that different from my original, I'm also not assuming who we draft)

 

DE: Sweat, Orchard

DE: Kerrigan, Anderson

1-Tech: Payne

3-Tech: Allen

MIKE: Holcomb (off the field in NICKEL looks)

SAM: Foster/Anderson when Foster inevitably gets hurt

WILL: Dion-Hamilton

CB: Dunbar

CB: Moreau

NICKEL: Moreland

FS: Apke

SS: Collins

 

Ioan would spell both the 1/3 Tech spots and likely wind up with more or similar snaps to the two "starters". Will once again be one of our better defensive players due to his flexibility. Though we could use another large body 1-technique guy to spell Payne. 

 

Ioan had 839 snaps as a DL this season. That's 10th in the NFL. Payne 766. Allen 730.  Their % of defensive snaps, though, isn't all that crazy. They were on the field too much. The defense will be aided by a good offense. Significantly so. 

 

Now, looking at this I see significant weakness at linebacker, FS and corner, which we knew. 

 

Anderson right now is penciled in as a DE, but if the team drafts Young, he likely moves to a 7-tech/OLB role. 

 

Dunbar plays in ~12 games/season. Not awful. But depth is a concern. And really, another starting caliber corner where Moreau is pushed to a backup role (and likely to play in place of Dunbar) is an ideal situation.

 

Free safety is the actual worst single position of this group. I have no faith in Apke or Nicholson. Maybe they prove me wrong. 

 

SDH is a TOTAL wildcard. Good in coverage, doesn't attack downhill very well, tackles well. Holcomb is not good in coverage, doesn't attack downhill, but he's a smart player who gets to the ball (down the field more than I'd like, but this could be remedied from playing in Del Rio/Rivera's 4-3 MIKE spot), tackles well. Foster I 100% do not count on at all. Anderson in coverage is a nightmare.

 

SLIGHTLY CONTROVERSIAL:

As far as the draft goes: I think this team drafts Chase Young. He's a tremendous player who can change a game. He will be the BPA at our pick unless Cincy takes him. I do not, under any circumstances, advocate passing on him if he's available. But part of me kind of wants Cincy to take him. Forgetting the possibility of a trade back, or a quarterback, That leaves us with Simmons or Okudah as the BPA... And both of them fill a significant need.

 

Our depth at the DE position is enough to be relatively successful with them rushing more.

 

So, to sum it up:

 

Assuming Cincy takes Burrows, my draft board looks like this:

 

1. Chase Young

2. Isaiah Simmons

2b. Okudah

 

I kind of want Cincy to pull the trigger on Young, though. NOT THAT I DON'T WANT HIM, he changes games by his presence alone and it's extremely difficult to pass on a pass rusher of his caliber... So you absolutely do not pass on him. But I think we get a stud at 2 regardless.

 

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

Copy and pasted from the other thread:

 

So after letting things sink in a little, here would be my lineup (it's not all that different from my original, I'm also not assuming who we draft)

 

DE: Sweat, Orchard

DE: Kerrigan, Anderson

1-Tech: Payne

3-Tech: Allen

MIKE: Holcomb (off the field in NICKEL looks)

SAM: Foster/Anderson when Foster inevitably gets hurt

WILL: Dion-Hamilton

CB: Dunbar

CB: Moreau

NICKEL: Moreland

FS: Apke

SS: Collins

 

Ioan would spell both the 1/3 Tech spots and likely wind up with more or similar snaps to the two "starters". Will once again be one of our better defensive players due to his flexibility. Though we could use another large body 1-technique guy to spell Payne. 

 

Ioan had 839 snaps as a DL this season. That's 10th in the NFL. Payne 766. Allen 730.  Their % of defensive snaps, though, isn't all that crazy. They were on the field too much. The defense will be aided by a good offense. Significantly so. 

 

Now, looking at this I see significant weakness at linebacker, FS and corner, which we knew. 

 

Anderson right now is penciled in as a DE, but if the team drafts Young, he likely moves to a 7-tech/OLB role. 

 

Dunbar plays in ~12 games/season. Not awful. But depth is a concern. And really, another starting caliber corner where Moreau is pushed to a backup role (and likely to play in place of Dunbar) is an ideal situation.

 

Free safety is the actual worst single position of this group. I have no faith in Apke or Nicholson. Maybe they prove me wrong. 

 

SDH is a TOTAL wildcard. Good in coverage, doesn't attack downhill very well, tackles well. Holcomb is not good in coverage, doesn't attack downhill, but he's a smart player who gets to the ball (down the field more than I'd like, but this could be remedied from playing in Del Rio/Rivera's 4-3 MIKE spot), tackles well. Foster I 100% do not count on at all. Anderson in coverage is a nightmare.

 

SLIGHTLY CONTROVERSIAL:

As far as the draft goes: I think this team drafts Chase Young. He's a tremendous player who can change a game. He will be the BPA at our pick unless Cincy takes him. I do not, under any circumstances, advocate passing on him if he's available. But part of me kind of wants Cincy to take him. Forgetting the possibility of a trade back, or a quarterback, That leaves us with Simmons or Okudah as the BPA... And both of them fill a significant need.

 

Our depth at the DE position is enough to be relatively successful with them rushing more.

 

So, to sum it up:

 

Assuming Cincy takes Burrows, my draft board looks like this:

 

1. Chase Young

2. Isaiah Simmons

2b. Okudah

 

I kind of want Cincy to pull the trigger on Young, though. NOT THAT I DON'T WANT HIM, he changes games by his presence alone and it's extremely difficult to pass on a pass rusher of his caliber... So you absolutely do not pass on him. But I think we get a stud at 2 regardless.

 

I have to ask you, what is the reason you have Apke starting? Am I missing something or has he shown enough to start? I can actually see him being cut by a new staff that has no ties to him. I don't see how he would be the planned starter but again, maybe I am missing something with him?

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I have to ask you, what is the reason you have Apke starting? Am I missing something or has he shown enough to start? I can actually see him being cut by a new staff that has no ties to him. I don't see how he would be the planned starter but again, maybe I am missing something with him?

 

Because I don't want Nicholson starting. And we don't have any other options.

[kingdaddy]

Lets hope Ron has some options for safety from Carolina to go with Landon Collins....they have to be better than our options here.