Roster analysis - self scout heading into the offseason

[MartinC]

With the new coaching hire and the firing of Allen there might be a glimmer of light on the horizon! I was thinking last night about our roster and needs heading into free agency and the draft and how the new regime might view things. Some of this has been discussed in different threads but I thought it might be interesting to bring this into a thread.

 

Intent here is to self scout and establish strengths and needs of the current roster not necessarily get into who we should target in free agency or draft. Those conversations and decisions are what drop out after you have completed the self scout and set your needs.

 

Scheme will set some of the needs. For that purpose I’m going to assume KOC is staying and the offense will be an evolution of our current scheme and that we are switching to a 4-3 base and more importantly mainly a 1 gap scheme (both Rivera and Del Rio have been primarily 1 gap guys). In terms of coverage Rivera has been mainly a zone guy and Del Rio more a man guy, so not sure which way we will lean there (we will clearly use both) so I’m going to assume Rivera gives Del Rio his head and we go more man.

 

So where are we?

 

Offense

 

QB

 

This is Haskins team going into next season. The last two starts and the steady progress leading up to those two starts confirmed that. He was the third highest rated QB in the league in those two starts - small sample size, but hope! His continued development is key to the success of the new regime. 
 

Behind him there are a lot of questions. The only QB under contract is Alex Smith - and that contract is guaranteed for next season. But will he be able to pass a physical and assume the veteran backup and mentor role? I’d say it’s odds against given the significance of his injury and the rehab process so far. But that’s just a guess. If the team are confident that Smith will be able to pass a physical he will be the backup, if not then a veteran backup is a need. Case Keenum could be made an offer to return in that role if the team don’t believe Smith can make it back - Colt McCoy is almost certainly done as a Redskin.

 

RB

 

On paper this is a strong position. We have AP, Guice and Love under contract. Love is coming off the knee injury but has had a red shirt year and should be full go for the offseason program. Guice has had two injury hit campaigns but his latest injury was reasonably minor. He also should be full go. 
 

AP is what he is. A future Hall of Famer who still has the jump step, burst and desire to be an every down back. Guice showed immense ability and big play ability in his brief appearances. Guice will probably go into the season as the starter but he will split carries with AP and he has to prove he can be durable enough to start to claim the bigger share of those carries. Love will ease back in and maybe split some of the third down back duties with Guice.

 

Chris Thomson is a free agent. He’s explosive and a great guy - but another who just can’t stay healthy. He’s a good back but hard to pay given his injury history.

 

There are injury question marks over both Guice and Love but assuming Love is on track I don’t see this as a position of need. 

 

WR

 

Entering the 2019 season this was probably the position with the biggest question marks. Entering the 2020 season a lot of those questions have been answered. Mainly by Terry McLaurin who is a stud - he just competed the second highest rated rookie season for a receiver since PFF started doing ratings - just behind OBJ and ahead of every other rookie receiver from a good class. He’s the #1 in this offense. 
 

Sims progressed from a UDFA to return specialist to locking down the slot role. His route running developed significantly with game experience and became a real threat in the red zone. There were still questions about his production over all in terms of yards per catch and his ability to stretch the field and provide YAC but he answered some of that in the last couple of games but still a work in progress in terms of tracking and securing deep balls. Maybe a position we will bring in competition but Sims is penciled in as the starter.

 

Harmon took over the starting role opposite McLaurin when Richardson went down and showed promise and some production. He is a big target who showed good natural hands. Maybe struggles to separate against man but made some big boy catches in traffic. He is certainly a keeper but maybe a 4th receiver right now in a good WR group rather than a #2. But the game experience and a jump from year 1 to year 2 is certainly possible and he will compete for the starting role. But I would say adding another quality target is something to be explored.

 

Richardson may be done even though cutting him does not save much and Quinn will at best be in the bubble going into the offseason program.

 

TE

 

Sadly Jordan Reed is likely done as an NFL player. Retirement is the most likely and probably best option for Jordan. Time has probably finally caught up with Vernon Davis as well. Behind those two Sprinkle did not grasp his opportunity - he was underwhelming both as a blocker and as a receiver. Hentges showed some promise with some big catches and flashed the ability to stretch the field. Major area of need, the 2020 starter is not currently on this roster and probably neither is the #2 TE.

 

O’Line.

 

A unit in flux. And one that needs major attention going into 2020. 
 

Let’s start with a positive Flowers made a successful transition to LG. He had a solid season and was at worst a good starter. He’s also a free agent. At the other G spot Scherff ended the season on IR. Again. His injuries are becoming a concern but when he did play he was good. Maybe not the dominating player he was pre the injuries but a top end starting G. He’s also a free agent ...

 

Signing these two (maybe tagging Scherff) has to be a priority in this area.

 

Roullier was functional at C but is not one of the better starters in the league. It’s a position that could be improved - maybe by Wes Martin who played well when he was forced to start at G when Scherff went down. He has been splitting reps at C and G in practice and although he is primarily a G if we do re sign both Flowers and Scherff maybe he switches to C to get our best 5 on the field.

 

Tackle is a major area of concern. Trent Williams status is still up in the air. If he can be brought back into the camp know Allen and the medical staff are gone that would address on huge question mark at LT. Penn held up well most of the year but was running in fumes by the end of the season and was being pushed back by bull rushes and lacked the athletic ability to deal with speed outside. He will be 37 before next season starts - he will probably retire. 
 

At RT I have never been a big fan of Moses. He is too passive, lacks an aggressive punch and is more of a waist bender which reduces his power in both pass pro and run blocking. He is also good for a couple of drive killing penalties every week. This is a position of need IMO. If Trent is traded we need two starting OTs IMO.

 

Depth at tackle is Geron Christian and Timon Parris. Christian has shown some improvement from a dire rookie season but the only way was up from that. He still not shown he’s someone who can count on as more than a spot starter and should be on the bubble next camp. Parris has potential (he was brought up the 53 when there were claims on him from our practice squad) he should compete for the swing tackle job next season.

 

Bergstrom does not belong on an NFL roster.

 

Defense

 

D’line

 

The strength of the unit and badly misused IMO this season. We primarily 2 gapped and although Payne, Allen, Ioannidis and Settle did that really well it’s a waste of their talent. In a 4-3 1 gap defense this group along with Sweat will be able to get up field and disrupt running schemes and get after the QB. Kerrigan will also join this group although he is in the last year of his deal and the draft (cough Chase Young) may impact his status - he may be asked to take a pay cut to stay.

 

This group needs to impact games more and play to their potential if the defense is to be as good as it could be.

 

Linebackers

 

For me a major question mark and the weakness of the defense last season. There were times when Bostic played well filling the hole and Holcomb showed promise and probably did more than could be expected of a late round rookie. SDH also played well in spot duty from time to time. But overall there were far too many missed run fits and coverage breakdowns - covering TEs remained a mystery to this group all season. 
 

Ruben Foster comes back and should fill the MLB role in a 4-3. At his best he’s a difference maker. But it will be two years since he’s played and he’s not shown an ability to stay healthy. Risky to rely on him.

 

Holcomb should improve with the experience and be better in year 2 and SDH is a solid player. Ryan Anderson could play either the weak side or strong side role (I see him more as a SAM) and be good against the run but you would worry about him in coverage. We could use upgrades at all 3 ‘backer spots and this is the unit that concerns me the most in our defense.

 

Corner

 

Josh Norman can’t run with NFL speed and has lost the quickness to close. He was a liability last season and we save $12.5M cutting him. He’s done here and probably in the NFL.

 

Dunbar is excellent when available (and any players best ability is their availability). Moreau showed real promise when he moved outside to replace Norman after struggling badly in the slot. Dunbar and Moreau are a good starting two but both have durability concerns and if we are primarily a man defense getting a stud cover corner from either FA or the draft should be a major consideration. We have the cap space to target this position in free agency.

Jimmy Moreland made plays in the slot - he has a nose for the football. He’s only 180 pounds though and it’s questionable if he can play full time in the slot and stay healthy playing in the style he does. He’s a keeper though. 

A stud corner and at least competition at slot is the need.

 

Safety

 

Free safety is a major need. Even setting aside the off field issues Nicholson was a liability on the field. He does have physical ability but far too many dumb penalties and blown coverages.

 

Landon Collins was good when used correctly and not good when miscast in deep coverage. Assuming he is used properly he will be a major contributor in 2020.

 

So overall I would say the needs are (assuming we bring back Flowers and Scherff) OT, TE, CB, FS, linebacker, WR and backup QB.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[KDawg]

I'll do this quick because I have to do some running around...

 

First, thanks for the thread. Good idea.

 

Now:

 

QB: Haskins showed enough that we have to ride with him. Will need a backup. I'd go veteran and draft a late round rookie.

 

RB: Guice is currently made of glass. Love is coming off an ACL. Peterson will be there but he's going to age at some point. This is our group. And talent wise they're great. I don't see much they can do here. Guice is too damn good to not take the chance on. Love could be special. Peterson is... Peterson.

 

WR: I'm completely okay with. McLaurin, Sims, Sims, Harmon make up a good core. Could add a guy or two but I'm okay with the youth there.

 

TE: Need an upgrade, but less so than OLB, FS, CB, OL. Hentges flashed and I think he could, with time, fill the role adequately. Sprinkle is fine as a blocking guy with a few passes thrown his way.

 

OL: Depends on FA. I've broken this down a bunch. But Scherff, Williams, Penn and Flowers are major dominoes that we have to see where they fall. Depth will be a concern regardless. Martin can start at a guard. But there is little to no depth. 

 

DT: Payne, Allen, Ioan, Settle. Good quartet. Fine there.

 

DE: Kerrigan, Sweat, Orchard - Nice start. Have to assume Young will be added. Very good group with addition of Young.

 

MIKE: I think we're okay here. Foster/Holcomb/SDH can all play inside. 

 

SAM/WILL: My biggest concern. Foster can play there and Holcomb/SDH in the middle. But Foster is injury prone, so I count him as bonus rather than relying on him. Without Foster, our current best OLB candidates are SDH and Anderson. Anderson in coverage makes me nervous as hell. I do like the idea that SDH and Foster can play next to each other, though.

 

Free Safety: Second biggest concern (both my first and second assume our OL is in okay shape. OL is always my top concern. Always.) I am not sold at all on Apke. Nicholson is a ticking time bomb.

 

Corner: Dunbar/Moreau/Moreland are fine. But you could definitely use more in this group. Another starter, preferably one who is versatile that can play some press and zone to supplant Moreau or Dunbar would be ideal.

 

Strong Safety: Collins. We're fine.

 

Needs:

 

1) OLB

2) FS

3) CB

4) TE

 

Offensive line catapults into this list if we lose some guys. It moves in no matter what. Not sure where yet, though.

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

SAM/WILL: My biggest concern. Foster can play there and Holcomb/SDH in the middle. But Foster is injury prone, so I count him as bonus rather than relying on him. Without Foster, our current best OLB candidates are SDH and Anderson. Anderson in coverage makes me nervous as hell. I do like the idea that SDH and Foster can play next to each other, though.

 

Free Safety: Second biggest concern (both my first and second assume our OL is in okay shape. OL is always my top concern. Always.) I am not sold at all on Apke. Nicholson is a ticking time bomb.

Yeah I’m with you here. These are clearly our two biggest needs on defense. I think many will be surprised to see us highlight linebacker as such a big need, but it really is. FS is a no brainer. I do think corner is a bigger need than you seem to if we are going to be primarily a man team - if we are going to use more zone a bit less so.

[Wildbunny]

Thoughts?

Well that's a great post first and foremost Martin. I agree as a whole, and it shows that even if we have an interesting nucleus, we're seriously lacking depth at many levels, if not all besides DL (only place where we're stacked).

 

Backup QB is either Alex Smith or a FA (fun fact, according to Spotrac, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers are all UFA this upcoming year :D) That being said, I don't see many interesting names to go hunting for this year.

 

I wouldn't think that RB is a stacked position. We've got too many injuries there, so I'm not gonna rely on CT, Guice or Love to be really significant. The only worth guy on this list is AP. We absolutely need some reinforcement here.

 

And at FS, I'd rather ride the year with Apke than Nicholson, that's kinda the same thing, without the boneheaded penalties.

 

Btw, you didn't told your view about our LS Nick Sundberg. Worth to bring him for an 11th season? (Guy is our longest tenured player really!)

Joke aside, I thought our ST did handle themselves good, in all phases and we're perfectly fine with both Hopkins & Way.

[Warhead36]

We need overhauls on the OL and secondary.

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

 

 

Btw, you didn't told your view about our LS Nick Sundberg. Worth to bring him for an 11th season? (Guy is our longest tenured player really!)

Joke aside, I thought our ST did handle themselves good, in all phases and we're perfectly fine with both Haskins & Way.

I think we can put the names of Way, Hopkins and Sundberg in the line up in ink 🙂 Probably Haskins as well ....

 

As an aside if you have a son teach him to long snap - a decade plus in the league at vet minimum and no one can even hit you anymore.

[Jumbo]

need more cowbell

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Josh Cowbell, the TE from Purdue.

[Chump Bailey]

Austin Hooper, Blake Martinez and Trae Waynes would be my primary FA's signings and I would not be shy trying to land them personally. I think we are vastly overestimating the RB situation. Guice cannot stay healthy and Love recently had a setback. I'd definitely draft a RB.

[Chris 44]

What was Love's setback?

[Chump Bailey]

1 minute ago, Chris 44 said:

What was Love's setback?

 

He required further surgery on his knee back in November IIRC. 

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Austin Hooper, Blake Martinez and Trae Waynes would be my primary FA's signings and I would not be shy trying to land them personally. I think we are vastly overestimating the RB situation. Guice cannot stay healthy and Love recently had a setback. I'd definitely draft a RB.

Did not hear about Loves set back - what was that? If he has had a set back that would change my thinking about maybe trying to bring CT back.

[Jericho]

QB: Haskins may or may not be the answer, but when you take a guy that early you have to give him a shot. His pedigree is good and late in the 2019 season he seemed to show progress, particularly once O'Connell took over play calling. Behind him is a huge question mark. McCoy's contract is up and will be allowed to walk. Keenum's contract is up and probably walks, though could be targeted for a back-up role. Alex Smith is under contract, but is he even healthy enough to take the field? If not and if Keenum walks, then a back-up is needed. Could be a later round draft target.

 

RB: Guice, Peterson, and Love all are under contract and bring something to the table. All bring significant questions though. I suspect Thompson is allowed to walk. Smallwood likely is allowed to leave too, unless the market is really quiet. I doubt this position changes much, and likely gets no more than a late round draft pick and no real free agent moves.

 

TE: Reed and Davis will be gone. Sprinkle likely stays, simply because the team needs bodies and he's cheap, under contract, and semi-competent. I guess Henges has the inside track on a job as well. Could really use not just more bodies here, but starter level bodies. Problem is the team likely won't address this until the 3rd round of the draft at the earliest in the draft and free agency is often pretty thin. Right now, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper provide some options. So does Ebron. But will any of them make free agency and/or sign here? Henry's had health issues and Ebron's has only really great TD fueled year surrounded by years of disappointment. But still better than what the team has. It's a huge need.

 

WR: What was arguably the worst group in the NFL got a huge injection of talent from some rookies. Which is more surprising considering the team invested minimal draft capital. But McLaurin looks like a bona fide starter with upside and Sims may be the answer at the slot. Harmon is more uncertain, but still offers depth at worse. I suspect Richardson would be cut and Quinn's likely not more than depth at best. Really need bodies here too, but it likely doesn't get addressed earlier than the 3rd round. So temper any expectations of immediate impact.

 

OL: Lots of issues here. Moses is under contract, but isn't particularly good. Scherff and Flowers are free agents. Williams is...who knows? Penn might retire. Rouiller is the only starter we know will be back and he's...okay. Depth isn't much, though the hope is that Christian continues to develop, as do Martin and Pierschbacher. But lots of questions and not many answers. Will need to address this position as well

 

DL: The most solid position on the team with Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis. Settle is good depth too. And we'll likely see Sweat move here. And maybe Kerrigan if he's still around. Plus you probably add Young is things play out as expected. Which is just loaded. Hell, even Caleb Brantley is still around

 

LB: Hopefully Foster is back and healthy. Anderson, SDH, and Holcomb will like be around in some fashion. But could really use more answers here and more talent. Still, not sure there's draft capital or $$$ to really do much

 

CB: I suspect Norman is finally cut, but Dunabr and Moreau seem competent and Moreland is interesting. Danny Johnson and Stroman are also still around, but really just bubble guys at this point. Aaron Colvin is a free agent and people thought he was good up until this year. But he's also really just a slot guy. REally need to address this position as well, but I suspect it comes more from a depth standpoint than a starter standpoint

 

S: Collins is fine and Apke made some strides, but a real FS would be great.

 

ST: largely fine

 

Needs:

1) TE

2) OL

3) LB

4) FS

5) WR

6) CB

 

 

 

[Jumbo]

3 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

What was Love's setback?

 

 

for me, it was redheads

[Chris 44]

Love to know if it was minor, scar tissue etc.. excited to see what he has to offer.

[MartinC]

2 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

He required further surgery on his knee back in November IIRC. 

Ahhh that was supposedly just a clean up and part of speeding up rehab. If true then that’s not a big deal. But clearly there is risk around Love.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

for me, it was redheads

Brunettes for me.

[Chump Bailey]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Did not hear about Loves set back - what was that? If he has had a set back that would change my thinking about maybe trying to bring CT back.

 

He required further surgery. I'm fairly certain it was worded as a setback at the time but perhaps it was just more of a cleanup. I apologize to all if this incorrect information. Thanks Martin just read your reply.

[skins island connection]

I'd like to see a return of the FB position.

Finding a big, bruising FB type to help take the initial beating off Guice until he can at least get into the flow.

I miss Mike Sellars; he was a huge bowling ball who could run, catch and block, and was a great weapon to have, always scored big TDs.

[Wildbunny]

9 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

for me, it was redheads

redheads are fine!

1 minute ago, skins island connection said:

I'd like to see a return of the FB position.

Finding a big, bruising FB type to help take the initial beating off Guice until he can at least get into the flow.

I miss Mike Sellars; he was a huge bowling ball who could run, catch and block, and was a great weapon to have, always scored big TDs.

We do have Burton as a FB on the roster. He seemed to be doing OK with me.

[MartinC]

6 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

redheads are fine!

We do have Burton as a FB on the roster. He seemed to be doing OK with me.

Burton has a grand total of 68 snaps on offense on the season. Just over 7% of the snaps. He was so so in those snaps as well. I’d be surprised if he is back and if we have a FB on the roster.

[mhd24]

CB, LB, TE are the most glaring needs on the team.  Luckily, CB and TE have some FA options.

[skins island connection]

14 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

redheads are fine!

We do have Burton as a FB on the roster. He seemed to be doing OK with me.

 

 Burton never jumped out and made a statement type block or play, at least that I've seen thus far, and maybe he's just not utilized correctly. Maybe he can get some quality 'coaching up' and become a force. but I like me some Sellars type players. If its not him maybe they find one out there.

[MartinC]

Related.

 

 

[skinny21]

Great idea and good posts @MartinC and @KDawg   
 

Not going to go by unit, but random shots:

 

I’m intrigued by a guy like Josh Ferguson as a 4th back (which we’ll need considering the highlighted issues of our top 3).  
 

Didn’t realize Martin had been taking snaps at center too... assumed that was Piersbacher’s role.  I like Martin as a depth player (for now) - I’d rather just bite the bullet and pay Flowers and Scherff.  Returning Trent, and those two would be a 180 for the projected state of the oline.  @MartinC - you nailed my take on Moses.  Like that you mentioned Parris as well.  Don’t expect anything from the guy really, but the fact they kept him from being poached says something.  Here’s hoping he can at least compete with Moses...

 

Don’t like paying Richardson so much as a depth/role player, but I have zero problem with our current starters and Cam/Richardson are pretty solid depth.  Still makes sense to hit the position in a deep draft.  No team has a stud in the wings for when their top receiver goes down, but I think we could fill the void fairly reasonably with the guys we have under contract.  
 

I am not very high on Moreau.  Really appreciated his picks, but wasn’t impressed otherwise.  With that said, it’s not like I was watching him closely and we had a stretch of forcing coverage sacks/poor throws, so maybe he was fine.  I just know that on a number of receptions, he’d given up ample separation.

Moreland - I can’t say much, but I do love how physical he is in the run game - he looked a little like Fuller in this respect.  Had a couple nice PDs too, so I like his potential.  Zero opinion on the ‘off the street’ guys we played at the end of the year... hopefully we found a depth player.  Thinking we could use a top flight corner badly.  
 

Don’t see a FS on the roster... maaaybe Reaves?

 

I was so glad to see Hentges used in the pass game and I thought he looked solid out there.  I’ve mentioned before seeing good things from him as a run blocker.  He and Sprinkle look like adequate #2s.  
 

Mentioned this yesterday, but I wonder about JHC as a SOLB - sure tackler, nice length and speed combo, not a coverage liability, and he had some success as a blitzer.  Probably adequate, at best, but that would be a big step up for that position from ‘who knows?’.  There’s some potential with this group, but no studs outside of Foster (KDawg- I think you’re absolutely right to consider him a bonus vs relying on him).  Tall order to find a stud though considering this draft and a lack of a 2nd.  

 

Very curious to see guys that haven’t seen action - like Brailford and Love - as well as the transition for guys we haven’t seen all that much of (McKinzey and JHC for example).  
 

 

[KillBill26]

Will LB is far and away the biggest need to me, bc I don't think we have anyone on the roster to handle the bulk of those snaps.   I feel like the ilb from last year are a bunch of SAMs in the 4-3.  And I'd rather solidify the front 7 first, as the secondary would improve with a solid front 7.  That being said, it seems like a solid WILL shouldn't break the bank or be a premium draft pick.  We have seen recent teams with success, most notable the eagles, with relatively no names at lb, because they were solid everywhere else.  I think you need to bring in a vet here, bc a midround rookie shouldn't be expected to handle it (although Holcomb held his own for the most part).  

 

The o line depends on the three dominoes, and if they all return, I don't think it needs to be addressed in free agency this year.  Midround pick for depth.   If Trent is gone, this becomes a major need, since we need to protect Haskins to aid his growth.  That could be tricky, bc we need to take young at #2.

 

FS and Cb are in need of an upgrade for sure, but don't think it's too priority this offseason.

 

I like hentges, and wouldn't hate him getting a majority of snaps.  An upgrade to a better receiving tight end is needed, but that may be seen as more of a luxury this offseason.  But we have all seen the impact of a Jordan Reed, so maybe that becomes a top priority to aid Haskins.

 

As for wr, we have some good young options.  I would keep p rich for another season, unless we can get a pick for him, to play his role in stretching the field to help Haskins in the short term, and look for a replacement with a similar skill set.  I'm very excited for the 3 rookies.  

 

We have a lot of good young talent, it's all about building off that, and putting them in position to succeed.