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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

Posted
Posted

Saw the below on another board.  It's from Dane Brugler, and the original material is behind a paywall here...

 

"The following ratings are for the 16 FBS QB's invited to the 2019 Combine:

 

Rating When Passing Under Pressure:

 

Top 3:

Murray - 109.5

Haskins - 87.6

Tyree Jackson - 84.6

 

Bottom 3:

Stidham - 47.9

Fitzgerald - 41.1

D. Jones - 40.7

 

Rating When Passing 20+ Yards Downfield (Ball Travels 20 yards in air):

 

Top 3:
Haskins - 124.5
Stidham - 122.7

Lock - 122.0

Bottom 3:
Thorson - 84.8
D. Jones - 73.4
McSorley - 67.6

 

Passing on Third and Long (7+ yards):

 

Top 3:
Murray - 138.8
Shurmur - 123.3
Grier - 115.0

Bottom 3:
Fitzgerald - 69.9

Browning - 67.5

McSorley - 41.1

 

Passing in Red Zone:

 

Top 3:
McSorley - 108.6

D. Jones - 108.1

Haskins - 106.7

Bottom 3:
Lock - 76.6
Fitzgerald - 69.7
Tyree Jackson - 56.9

 

Passing in 4th Quarter within one score:

 

Top 3:
Haskins - 150.9
Murray - 127.7
Minshew - 121.0

Bottom 3:
Lock - 37.8
Fitzgerald - 24.1
D. Jones - 18.4

 

Overall:

 

1. Haskins - 2.4 (Average Overall Rank)

2.  Murray - 4.2

3. Will Grier - 6.2

4. Rypien - 7.2

5. Minshew - 7.4

6. Stidham - 8.2

7. Browning - 8.2

8. Shurmur - 8.6

9. Lock - 8.6

10. T. Jackson - 8.6

11.  Finley - 9.2

12.  Thorson - 10.0

13.  McSorley - 10.0

14. Ta'amu - 10.4.

15.  D. Jones - 12.4

16.  Fitzgerald 14.4"



Read more:  http://thegiantsboard.proboards.com/thread/2690/interesting-analytics-class-dane-brugler?page=1#ixzz5p5X9ftZ7

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Anselmheifer

Anselmheifer

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

NE drafted Wynn in round 1 to play guard last year, they drafted Thuney with pick 78 in 2016 and then took Karrass later in the same draft, they took Froholdt in round 4 this year, and they drafted Mason in the 4th in 2015, he was the 2nd guard they took in the 4th that year. They attack the interior of the OL with top 4 round picks. I don’t think any guards make $15m, Acherff would probably command 11-12 though. 

 

 

There is a whole universe of difference between taking a guard at 5 and at 23. Lots of teams take interior OL in the mid to late 20's and early 2nd. I actually think that tends to be a sweet spot. The miss rate on those players seems much lower. Also, to be clear, I am all for using draft capital on interior OL. That is exactly how you avoid putting too much financial capital into the position. You continually pump mid and late round picks into the system and groom them to replace your current players when their contracts are up. 


I looked back at the last 7 years, and the Pats absolutely don't tend to spend on interior OL. The highest paid interior OL player during that period is Shaq Mason, who is making just over 7 million this year. Most years, their top paid OL makes a fraction of that number. To be fair, in 2013, they did pay Logan Mankins 10 million. 


Also, I am not sure Scherff will make 15 million, but I has heard that number bandied about. It probably comes from Zack Martin's 14 million a year contract that he signed a year ago. I do think that Scherff will make between 13 and 15 million annually, but may never see the larger numbers on the back end of that contract. 

 

Back to Haskins and WR's, I just watched the Maryland highlights. 

 

 

Haskins looked relatively bad early on, but improved as the game progressed, and his deep balls looked very good in this game. He completed a bunch, but also had a lot that were close or dropped. Also, McLaurin looked like a stud early on in this game. Maybe his draft issues were utilization and he will be better than I think. I do think it is sad when the WR I am most hopeful about having a good career is a 3rd round rookie. 

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SmallDaddy

SmallDaddy

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Saw the below on another board.  It's from Dane Brugler, and the original material is behind a paywall here...

 

"The following ratings are for the 16 FBS QB's invited to the 2019 Combine:

 

Rating When Passing Under Pressure:

 

Top 3:

Murray - 109.5

Haskins - 87.6

Tyree Jackson - 84.6

 

Bottom 3:

Stidham - 47.9

Fitzgerald - 41.1

D. Jones - 40.7

 

Rating When Passing 20+ Yards Downfield (Ball Travels 20 yards in air):

 

Top 3:
Haskins - 124.5
Stidham - 122.7

Lock - 122.0

Bottom 3:
Thorson - 84.8
D. Jones - 73.4
McSorley - 67.6

 

Passing on Third and Long (7+ yards):

 

Top 3:
Murray - 138.8
Shurmur - 123.3
Grier - 115.0

Bottom 3:
Fitzgerald - 69.9

Browning - 67.5

McSorley - 41.1

 

Passing in Red Zone:

 

Top 3:
McSorley - 108.6

D. Jones - 108.1

Haskins - 106.7

Bottom 3:
Lock - 76.6
Fitzgerald - 69.7
Tyree Jackson - 56.9

 

Passing in 4th Quarter within one score:

 

Top 3:
Haskins - 150.9
Murray - 127.7
Minshew - 121.0

Bottom 3:
Lock - 37.8
Fitzgerald - 24.1
D. Jones - 18.4

 

Overall:

 

1. Haskins - 2.4 (Average Overall Rank)

2.  Murray - 4.2

3. Will Grier - 6.2

4. Rypien - 7.2

5. Minshew - 7.4

6. Stidham - 8.2

7. Browning - 8.2

8. Shurmur - 8.6

9. Lock - 8.6

10. T. Jackson - 8.6

11.  Finley - 9.2

12.  Thorson - 10.0

13.  McSorley - 10.0

14. Ta'amu - 10.4.

15.  D. Jones - 12.4

16.  Fitzgerald 14.4"



Read more:  http://thegiantsboard.proboards.com/thread/2690/interesting-analytics-class-dane-brugler?page=1#ixzz5p5X9ftZ7

Wow, that overall ranking is looking really bad for the Giants 😂

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Koala

Koala

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

 Also, McLaurin looked like a stud early on in this game. Maybe his draft issues were utilization and he will be better than I think. I do think it is sad when the WR I am most hopeful about having a good career is a 3rd round rookie. 

I dunno about Mclaurin.  I wasnt really convinced that hed be any good if he wasnt surrounded by other wrs that could stretch the field.

 

Cant really recall him ever beating double coverage, or making a particularly difficult catch. 

 

I do remember alot of drops.  And one game he damn near cost us by drooping three straight easy catches (in successive series); one in the endzone, one for a big gain, and one on a critical 3rd down.  I thought NFL hopes were D.O.A at that point, but Haskins bailed him bigtime by stubbornly coming back to him, until he finally caught one of the the passes that had been hitting him in the numbers all day long, to help clinch the game

 

Pretty much hes another 50/50 without the occasional spectacular grab.  Maybe can be a good return man and #4 receiver.  Maybe.

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JaxJoe

JaxJoe

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Passing in 4th Quarter within one score:

 

Top 3:
Haskins - 150.9
Murray - 127.7
Minshew - 121.0

This is something important that few if anyone has reported. Haskins plays stronger in the 2nd half and rarely, if ever, waivers when the game is tight. As much fault as Haskins receives for his play against Penn St., look at his play in the 4th quarter for the win. Same can be said in just about every game in 2018 that was close, like against the Terps. It’s a quality we desperately need.   

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volsmet

volsmet

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

There is a whole universe of difference between taking a guard at 5 and at 23. Lots of teams take interior OL in the mid to late 20's and early 2nd. I actually think that tends to be a sweet spot. The miss rate on those players seems much lower. Also, to be clear, I am all for using draft capital on interior OL. That is exactly how you avoid putting too much financial capital into the position. You continually pump mid and late round picks into the system and groom them to replace your current players when their contracts are up. 


I looked back at the last 7 years, and the Pats absolutely don't tend to spend on interior OL. The highest paid interior OL player during that period is Shaq Mason, who is making just over 7 million this year. Most years, their top paid OL makes a fraction of that number. To be fair, in 2013, they did pay Logan Mankins 10 million. 


Also, I am not sure Scherff will make 15 million, but I has heard that number bandied about. It probably comes from Zack Martin's 14 million a year contract that he signed a year ago. I do think that Scherff will make between 13 and 15 million annually, but may never see the larger numbers on the back end of that contract. 

 

 

 

The Pats invest more at the guard position than Washington; we drafted Scherff to be a tackle, we didn’t intend to draft a guard at 5. 

 

I wouldn’t consider giving Scherff 14 million, that would be absurd.

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redskinss

redskinss

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, volsmet said:

we drafted Scherff to be a tackle, we didn’t intend to draft a guard at 5. 

I'm gonna have to disagree with this assessment. 

All the reports of scherff coming out were that he would make a better guard than tackle.

Most of the knocks on the pick when we made it were that it was too early to draft a guard.

Did we even make an attempt to play him at tackle?

I can't recall but if we did it certainly wasn't much of an effort. 

I'm pretty certain our intentions from the very beginning were to move him to guard.

 

I agree though that although he's very good I dont think he transcends the position and giving him a contract that makes him the highest paid guard in the league would probably end up a mistake, but it probably wouldn't be a disaster because he would at the very least be a very solid anchor on the line for the life of the contract.

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volsmet

volsmet

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I'm gonna have to disagree with this assessment. 

All the reports of scherff coming out were that he would make a better guard than tackle.

 

 

He practiced at tackle & got smoked. We drafted him to be a tackle. 

7 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/washington-redskins/redskins-position-preview-right-tackle

 

Quote

 

Comment: The fifth overall pick in the draft was plugged in at right tackle from the start and the Redskins hope that he doesn’t come out before they move to a new stadium sometime in the latter half of the 2020’s.

He was a left tackle at Iowa so there are two learning curves for him to deal with. The move from one tackle to the other side has been described like learning to eat with your left hand. It can be done but while you’re learning you might poke yourself in the eye with a fork a few times. The other challenge, if course, is the adjustment to the NFL. That change has been compared to the move from high school to college ball but more difficult by an exponential factor.

Jay Gruden has a very realistic view of the process and those who think that Scherff will come in and dominate immediately may want to reconsider.

“We moved him over to right tackle and he had some struggles, but the thing about Brandon that I’ve noticed already is he takes coaching extremely well,” said Gruden. “He learns. If he has a mistake, he’s going to try to fix it and that’s important for an offensive lineman to study the game and learn from your mistakes. Because you’re going to get beat a couple times by some top-level pass rushers. You might lose a block on a running scheme or what have you.”

 

 

https://www.redskins.com/video/brandon-scherff-coach-callahan-expects-the-best-15577927

 

 

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Koala said:

I dunno about Mclaurin.  I wasnt really convinced that hed be any good if he wasnt surrounded by other wrs that could stretch the field.

 

Cant really recall him ever beating double coverage, or making a particularly difficult catch. 

 

I do remember alot of drops.  And one game he damn near cost us by drooping three straight easy catches (in successive series); one in the endzone, one for a big gain, and one on a critical 3rd down.  I thought NFL hopes were D.O.A at that point, but Haskins bailed him bigtime by stubbornly coming back to him, until he finally caught one of the the passes that had been hitting him in the numbers all day long, to help clinch the game

 

Pretty much hes another 50/50 without the occasional spectacular grab.  Maybe can be a good return man and #4 receiver.  Maybe.

 

Are you sure you’re not suffering from the availability bias here?  Maybe those drops stick out in your mind, but overall, McClaurin has a 65% catch rate, which is pretty good, (especially since he caught so many deep balls). The advanced stats love him, and rank him among the top in the class (note Harmon’s ranking as well). 

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nfl/2019/4/22/18410620/nfl-draft-wide-receiver-stats-2019-projections-dk-metcalf-aj-brown-sleepers

 

First, a data dump. Here are the primary stats for the 30 WRs I’ve seen most frequently in mock drafts and prospect rankings, sorted by their full-career college marginal efficiency.

 

WR1.png

 

Listed alphabetically, here are the players who ended up above average (compared to the rest of those in this class) in terms of catch rate, marginal efficiency, and 40 time:

 

  • A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
  • Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Oklahoma (OK, he was rehabbing an injury and never ran the 40 during combine/pro day exercises, but you and I both know he’d have been in the 4.3 range)
  • Parris Campbell, Ohio State
  • Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia
  • Terry McLaurin, Ohio State
  •  

The Browns and the Buckeyes listed here are pretty high on most analysts’ lists, and it isn’t hard to see why. A.J. Brown might have been the most consistently awesome receiver in college football over the last two years, Hollywood Brown has blazing speed, and while neither Campbell nor McLaurin got all that many downfield opportunities in Ohio State’s quick-passing offense, they both got opportunities to prove both their route-running abilities and, with the number of screens the Buckeyes threw, their blocking abilities.

 

If you asked me to create a list of the most sure-thing prospects in the draft, Brown, Brown, Campbell, and McLaurin might be the list. Their inclusion here backs that up.

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volsmet

volsmet

Posted
Posted

I love the Sr bowl/s & Terry smoked it. His testing speed translates, which is not always the case. I have no idea if he will be any good, it’s tough to evaluate a WR you haven’t seen in person v man coverage, that’s where you see how they move. I trust in the analytics & SIPs deep love for TM.

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redskinss

redskinss

Posted
Posted

It's just my opinion, I have nothing to back it up but I still believe scherff was drafted to be a guard and they probably just did their due diligence by seeing what he could do at tackle knowing that he'd probably struggle.

By making an attempt they can both see if they have a potential backup at the tackle position and help with p.r. issues related to drafting a guard with the 5th pick, now they can claim they drafted a tackle at 5 not a guard. 

 

How many tackles drafted high in the first round are given up on that quickly?

Seems to me had they truly intended to draft him as a tackle they would have given him time to mature and learn.

 

Again I have nothing but conjecture but his transition happened way too fast to be a coincidence.

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volsmet

volsmet

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, redskinss said:

It's just my opinion, I have nothing to back it up but I still believe scherff was drafted to be a guard and they probably just did their due diligence by seeing what he could do at tackle knowing that he'd probably struggle.

By making an attempt they can both see if they have a potential backup at the tackle position and help with p.r. issues related to drafting a guard with the 5th pick, now they can claim they drafted a tackle at 5 not a guard. 

 

How many tackles drafted high in the first round are given up on that quickly?

Seems to me had they truly intended to draft him as a tackle they would have given him time to mature and learn.

 

Again I have nothing but conjecture but his transition happened way too fast to be a coincidence.

 

Long & Scherff were both getting handled, particularly BS, so they tried out Moses before our week of practice v Watt ...& Morgan impressed over the summer. Moses was a better tackle than Scherff & Scherff was a better guard than Moses. .. and it was obvious quickly. Washington was not particularly far from writing off Moses completely, that’s why we took BS... he wasn’t going to be a LT in the nfl, but our GM thought he would be a great RT. 

 

Scherff was smoked in his final *collegiate game, it was a draft day disappointed for me... Williams, Derwin, & Rosen ... my team would look quite a bit different, but I do like Payne & Scherff, particularly Payne who I think will be a pro bowl DL if we can get him off the nose more regularly. 

 

Callahan Auto Parts earned every cent we paid for the work they did with Moses. 

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Anselmheifer

Anselmheifer

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, volsmet said:

I wouldn’t consider giving Scherff 14 million, that would be absurd.

 

I don't think it would be absurd to give him 15 million per year if it is backloaded and we can easily get out after 3 years. Most of that is funny money. 

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

I love the Sr bowl/s & Terry smoked it. His testing speed translates, which is not always the case. I have no idea if he will be any good, it’s tough to evaluate a WR you haven’t seen in person v man coverage, that’s where you see how they move. I trust in the analytics & SIPs deep love for TM.


I also LOVE the Senior Bowl as an evaluation tool. I still remember Chad (Ochocinco) Johnson and Brndon Graham tearing it up there. It's a really good evaluation tool. 

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

 

Callahan Auto Parts earned every cent we paid for the work they did with Moses. 


It would be so huge for us if Callahan can do the same with Flowers. I think he has more tools for RT than Moses had. 

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