2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Number 44 Most mocks I have seen have JAX re-loading on defense. With Okudah, Simmons and Derrick Brown on the board ... which are all needs for JAX, I had them jump up to get "their guy" whoever that might be. In this mock draft, they took Derrick Brown at 5, but I would think Simmons or Okudah would be more likely. Of course, they could stand pat at 9 and take one of those that falls, but my thinking is they might want to have a say in who they add (getting the 2nd best defender behind Chase). I also wanted to take Jeudy, but thought #5 was too high given the depth of this WR class, and adding upgrading the mid-3rd for a top 1/3 2nd round pick to fall back to 9 and take Jeudy was a good bet.

Trade-downs are hard to project and also hard to execute. So being able to trade-down 2x from 2 would be tough, but I think turning #2 and #74 into #9, #18, #39 and #41 was tough to pass up.

[KDawg]

23 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

My take on the draft if we opt to trade down (which I am not on board with necessarily). If you're going to do it, do it well.

*trade 1.2 to Miami for 1.5 + 1.18 + 2.39

*Trade Trent to Cleveland for 3.74

*Trade 1.5 and 3.74 to JAX for 1.9 + 2.42

 

1.9: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

1.18: Andrew Thomas, LT Georgia

2.39: Antoine Winfield, S Minnesota

2.42: Terrell Lewis, Edge Alabama

3.66: Damon Arnette, CB Ohio State

4.108: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE Mizzou

4.142: Logan Wilson, LB Wyoming

5.16: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR Liberty

 

Jeudy and Thomas are Blue-Chip potentials. Winfield, Lewis and Arnette are all starter-caliber (longterm) and depth short-term. Albert O would have to be the starter or backup to Logan Thomas (not ideal, but I was going BPA early). Wilson and Gandy-Golden round out the top 5 rounds and give you additional long-term depth at positions of relative need.

I don’t think there’s a snowballs chance in hell that Thomas falls to 18. I don’t think Arnette falls that far, either. 
 

If Lamb was available at 9, hes the guy for this offense. If he’s off the board I go BPA, whoever it may be. 
 

If they could get Albert O, Winfield and Arnette on top of Jeudy and Thomas... that’s one of the best drafts anyone could have. I just don’t see it happening. 

[nickel7168]

16 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Huh, I thought Allen made perfect sense to pair with Haskins and looked for this acquisition for some time.

 

He doesn't cost a lot (although yes a 5th round pick feels a little high), should be easy to extend, already knows the system and isn't expected to be a future starter. Instead he can push Haskins and help him adjust to the system and terminology. 

 

 

I thought the FO waited as long as they dared before signaling that they're not drafting Tua.  This move for Allen sets us up at QB for 20/21.

Intrigue over.

[DWinzit]

On 3/22/2020 at 3:58 PM, KDawg said:

 

Im totally unsure what to make if Gibson.

 

19 hours ago, KDawg said:

I'm watching Carolina vs. Seattle. Scott Turner as OC + Kyle Allen as QB. 

 

They utilize a lot of two tight end sets, and they have their tight ends blocking a lot. It seems like a good opportunity to a guy like Sprinkle to shine as a blocker. And, I think Albert O could be a 4th round target for this team. Issue is Hentges has a ways to go to prove he's in the same world as Olsen as a receiving option. 

 

He uses a lot of jet motion, too. So Sims is going to be a big part of this offense. 

 

A Laviska Shenault would be a perfect fit, but we don't have the draft capital. Jaelan Raegor could be an option? Antonio Gibson?

 

Looks like ayou re working on understanding Gibson 

Love Shenault but only see him as an option with a trade down from pick #2. There are a few others that can be used with jet motion Turner likes my guy Gibson, Raegor or @volsmet suggestion McFarland

 

Regarding the TE's it's hard to argue with A O in the 4th if we have a 4th.

All of the TE's I am considering have at least some blocking ability.This is why I say I like Pinkney more than most. Same for Deuara and Asiasi and they would be available with our 5th we have from the Dunny trade.

18 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I really, really like Quarterman, though. I am a Miami fan, for full disclosure. But he's the one guy on that whole team that I would take a flier on. Pinckney is next. 

I see why you like Quarterman for sure. Your homerism might be shining with Pinckney...unless you are talking of the TE Pinkney from Vandy, lol

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

 

Looks like ayou re working on understanding Gibson 

Love Shenault but only see him as an option with a trade down from pick #2. There are a few others that can be used with jet motion Turner likes my guy Gibson, Raegor or @volsmet suggestion McFarland

 

Regarding the TE's it's hard to argue with A O in the 4th if we have a 4th.

All of the TE's I am considering have at least some blocking ability.This is why I say I like Pinkney more than most. Same for Deuara and Asiasi and they would be available with our 5th we have from the Dunny trade.

I see why you like Quarterman for sure. Your homerism might be shining with Pinckney...unless you are talking of the TE Pinkney from Vandy, lol

 

To be fair to Pinckney (not the TE from Vandy) I have him a bit lower. But a four year captain at Miami, with Quarterman, he's going to have some upside and some potential. But he's a late round (7-UDFA) flier guy. 

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

To be fair to Pinckney (not the TE from Vandy) I have him a bit lower. But a four year captain at Miami, with Quarterman, he's going to have some upside and some potential. But he's a late round (7-UDFA) flier guy. 

Yup and a special teamer.

 

Thanks for all of your sharing of positional rankings!

[KDawg]

Just now, DWinzit said:

Yup and a special teamer.

 

Thanks for all of your sharing of positional rankings!

 

Might finish off receivers and start either DTs or safeties tonight. Corners tomorrow maybe? We'll see. 

 

I only have:

QBs (started)

DTs

IOLs

CBs (halfway through)

WRs (halfway through)

Safeties (started)

 

Then it's East/West Shrine, Senior Bowl and Combine results (I've peeked at combine stuff...)

 

Then I'll start getting my final rankings and a mock draft put together. 

 

I am this bored. Yes. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

 

 

I just watched one game of Joe Reed, i like him.  He's a big dude and fast for his size.   He's sort of in the ilk of Shenault, Aiyuk and Gibson.  He's not a polished receiver but if you want a dude for the type of plays that Turner seemed to like to run in Carolina where he used his receivers as runners in hand offs, end arounds, sweeps, etc.  This dude can do that and do it well.  He's a good YAC guy, feisty in the open field. A fun watch on that front.  You can throw screen his way and let him bulldoze his way for some yards. 

 

Personally I wouldn't draft Shenault or Aiyuk high (that is in the first two rounds).  IMO they are good for what they do (runners-YAC guys) but they aren't polished receivers.  Maybe they turn out to be good receivers but to me its a bit of a roll of the dice on that front.   I might feel differently about Shenault if he's indeed the athletic freak that some advertised him to be but the combine did him no favors albeit I know he had an injury there.   So I don't know.   Because otherwise Bowden and Reed, etc have similar size and are faster than Shenault if there is some legitimacy to Shenault's combine numbers

 

I don't see that much of a drop off from them to Bowden who I think you can get later in the draft.  I'd need to watch Reed some more but from the one game I watched, the dude can also play in that style well.   They had him line up everywhere in that one game, slot, X and Z.  I'd take the dude in the late rounds if he's there. 

 

 

[KDawg]

Bowden is a grade A dickhead from what I've read. Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Of course, if I'm the NFL I have a better background knowledge and may choose differently. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Bowden is a grade A dickhead from what I've read. Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Of course, if I'm the NFL I have a better background knowledge and may choose differently. 

 

I've read mixed things about that but actually the player I meant to mention is Gibson not Bowden.  But Bowden is interesting for different reasons.

[volsmet]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Bowden is a grade A dickhead from what I've read. Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Of course, if I'm the NFL I have a better background knowledge and may choose differently. 

What else would you expect from Kentucky.

[Est.1974]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Personally I wouldn't draft Shenault or Aiyuk high (that is in the first two rounds).  IMO they are good for what they do (runners-YAC guys) but they aren't polished receivers.  Maybe they turn out to be good receivers but to me its a bit of a roll of the dice on that front.   I might feel differently about Shenault if he's indeed the athletic freak that some advertised him to be but the combine did him no favors albeit I know he had an injury there

Wasn’t it reported that Turner is right into Shenault, so to speak.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 2/1/2020 at 10:29 AM, Alcoholic Zebra said:

I've got a feeling that we'll trade up from #66 to the 2nd round to grab Trautman if he gets in range.  It's just a hunch that the new coaching staff is going to be desperate for a TE.

 

We've now got a pretty damn crowded backfield, as if it wasn't already crowded beforehand.  I said this awhile back, and I think it's still true.  The added emphasis (signing Peyton Barber to a 2 year deal) to make sure there's serious depth at RB points to us going after Trautman.

[DWinzit]

30 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

We've now got a pretty damn crowded backfield, as if it wasn't already crowded beforehand.  I said this awhile back, and I think it's still true.  The added emphasis (signing Peyton Barber to a 2 year deal) to make sure there's serious depth at RB points to us going after Trautman.

I can't ignore this...I can see this happening even though I'd be against it. Really don't want to move up for him. If they like what he brings to the table, there'snot much else in the class.

If this were to be the case, I would expect more DB signings

[JamesMadisonSkins]

34 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

We've now got a pretty damn crowded backfield, as if it wasn't already crowded beforehand.  I said this awhile back, and I think it's still true.  The added emphasis (signing Peyton Barber to a 2 year deal) to make sure there's serious depth at RB points to us going after Trautman.

 

May I ask why the crowded backfield leads to Trautman? I'm not sure I understand that correlation ... unless you're saying you thought we'd draft an RB early and now it means it's freed up for TE?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

May I ask why the crowded backfield leads to Trautman? I'm not sure I understand that correlation ... unless you're saying you thought we'd draft an RB early and now it means it's freed up for TE?

Why a TE? I think the coaching staff is going to put a strong emphasis on the run game in 2020.  Making sure we've got loads of RB talent on the team is my reasoning.  The only WR we've been linked to in FA was Amari Cooper.  We swung and missed on that.  I haven't seen rumors of us being "interested" in anybody else.  I'm going to guess the coaching staff things play action off of a strong run game is going to be their view on how to make things easiest for Haskins in 2020.

 

Why Trautman?  He's an athletic all around TE, who showed up at the Senior Bowl, and profiles as the best blocker in the class.

 

He doesn't have the long speed you'd like, only a 4.8 40 yard dash.  But his 10 yard split was a 1.57.  For reference, Albert Okwuegbunam ran a 40 yard in 4.49 seconds and a 10 yard split of 1.58.  Trautman's 3 cone time was a ridiculous 6.78.  For reference, only 1 WR and 1 Safety had a faster 3 cone at the combine.  No corners, runningbacks, and linebackers did.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Alcoholic Zebra okay ... makes sense. I just didn't understand the direct correlation from Barber to Trautman. got it.

[KDawg]

I think Albert O may wind up the best TE in this class to be honest. I think Trautman has the best profile. But Albert might be able to be had in the 4th. 
 

I think our third may go to my dude. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Albert O may wind up the best TE in this class to be honest. I think Trautman has the best profile. But Albert might be able to be had in the 4th. 
 

I think our third may go to my dude. 

 

Albert O was the TE1 for this class before the 2019 college football season by many experts. I think the combine helped him. Nobody was talking about him prior to the combine.

[volsmet]

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/03/24/stat-based-nfl-player-comparisons-for-the-2020-qb-class/

 

STAT-BASED NFL PLAYER COMPARISONS FOR THE 2020 QB CLASS

March 24, 2020 · by John Shirley · in NFL, Uncategorized · Leave a comment

By: John Shirley

Within the 2020 SIS Rookie Handbook, we provided a look at how well some player-level quarterback metrics correlate between the NCAA and the NFL. The following table and excerpt from the Handbook summarizes the results:

Correlation of QB Rate Metrics

Metric	NFL Year-to-Year (n=71)	Final NCAA Season to NFL Career (n=20)
Scramble%	0.76	0.50
ADoT	0.41	0.40
Catchable%	0.48	0.33
ADoC	0.33	0.29
Comp%	0.49	0.22
Sack%	0.34	0.04
EPA/DB	0.33	0.04
TD/INT	0.32	0.03
Y/A	0.31	0.00

“The metrics that correlate the highest year-to-year are the ones that measure what quarterbacks have the most control over: accuracy (Catchable%), aggressiveness (ADoT), and the decision to scramble (Scramble%). These are also the same things that have a high correlation from college to the NFL. Performance value metrics have much lower year-to-year correlations and NCAA to NFL correlations, most likely due to the fact that these measure overall offensive performance instead of direct quarterback performance.“

“SIS’s Total Points value metric shows relative stability at the NFL level (correlation = .45), but as we only have NCAA Total Points data for 2018 and 2019, we do not have a large enough sample to model a relationship. This is also a drawback for all of the quarterback metrics, as any relationship based on a sample size of 20 should be taken as a first glimpse and not gospel.”

Using this information, we can see that the top five metrics (Scramble%, ADoT, Catchable%, ADoC, and Completion%) show some relationship between a player’s performance in college and his performance in the NFL. By using these metrics and historical college data from previous draft classes, we can compare this season’s quarterback prospects to the college performance of current NFL players. We’ll use a similarity score on the scale of 0 to 100, with a higher number representing a more similar player.

Results

SIS Rookie Handbook Position Rank	Player	Most Similar Player	Similarity Score
1	Joe Burrow	Baker Mayfield	73
2	Tua Tagovailoa	Dwayne Haskins	86
3	Justin Herbert	Deshaun Watson	92
4	Jordan Love	Sam Darnold	81
5	Jacob Eason	Drew Lock	89
6	Jake Fromm	Cooper Rush	88
7	Tyler Huntley	Jake Browning	69
8	Jalen Hurts	Kyler Murray	74
9	Anthony Gordon	Gardner Minshew II	84
10	Steven Montez	Daniel Jones	87

 

Season	Player	Scramble%	ADoT	Catchable%	ADoC	Comp%
2017	Baker Mayfield	5.7%	10.7	88.3%	8.1	70.5%
2019	Joe Burrow	7.4%	9.1	91.2%	7.7	76.3%

Joe Burrow’s closest statistical comparison is fellow Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Although, this is one of the weaker comparisons among the group. This is mainly due to how incredible Burrow’s season was. There are not many other quarterbacks that can compare to his high-level accuracy, while also pushing the ball down the field with an ADoT of 9.1.

Season	Player	Scramble%	ADoT	Catchable%	ADoC	Comp%
2018	Dwayne Haskins	5.0%	7.9	85.3%	6.3	70.0%
2019	Tua Tagovailoa	4.0%	8.3	87.8%	6.1	71.4%

If this result surprises you because of the difference in stature between the two quarterbacks, maybe their similar stat lines convince you otherwise. It’s worth noting that if we include height as a variable in our model, Deshaun Watson becomes Tua’s strongest comparison.

Season	Player	Scramble%	ADoT	Catchable%	ADoC	Comp%
2016	Deshaun Watson	4.0%	8.5	85.1%	5.6	67.0%
2019	Justin Herbert	4.0%	8.4	83.4%	5.8	66.7%

Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson have the highest similarity score among the group, and when you look at their near-identical key statistics, it’s easy to see why. That said, if the 4 inch difference height between the two is too much for you to see past (pun intended), our height-inclusive model pegs Daniel Jones as most similar to Herbert, albeit with a similarity score of just 77.

[volsmet]

@KDawg - you check out any Carter Coughlin or Terry Whittington? Two Lbs with some late round buzz in the scouting community. 
 

 

 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, volsmet said:

@KDawg - you check out any Carter Coughlin or Terry Whittington? Two Lbs with some late round buzz in the scouting community. 
 

 

 

 

I had Coughlin as an EDGE. Low rated. He'd probably fare better on the LB list having watched him. I liked him. I just don't want to have my "lists" with people in 35 spots and some of these guys are a crap shoot to project.

 

Like Azur Kamara. I'm not sure that dude isn't going to be a DE yet. Little small, but can add bulk. He's an animal. 

 

Did not check out Whittington. 

[volsmet]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I had Coughlin as an EDGE. Low rated. He'd probably fare better on the LB list having watched him. I liked him. I just don't want to have my "lists" with people in 35 spots and some of these guys are a crap shoot to project.

 

Like Azur Kamara. I'm not sure that dude isn't going to be a DE yet. Little small, but can add bulk. He's an animal. 

 

Did not check out Whittington. 

I hadn’t watched Coughlin, I hadn’t heard of him (in relation to the draft) but his name just came up with a few others — perhaps he’s more of an edge, maybe they both are 🤷🏻‍♂️

22 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Bailey would be higher, but I'm not sure how he comes back from that injury. That's my biggest hurdle. I like Weaver. 

 

I really, really like Quarterman, though. I am a Miami fan, for full disclosure. But he's the one guy on that whole team that I would take a flier on. Pinckney is next. 

Garvin has been mentioned as a guy some like, perhaps udfa.

[KDawg]

I'm watching receivers... again... and I realize why receivers are taking me so long. It's like I'm watching the same god damn one over and over again. I have no idea where to rank some of these guys because they look so similar. 

[volsmet]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I'm watching receivers... again... and I realize why receivers are taking me so long. It's like I'm watching the same god damn one over and over again. I have no idea where to rank some of these guys because they look so similar. 

Sometimes you just need to use tiers 🤷🏻‍♂️