2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[50yrSKINSfan]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He was doubled teamed plenty when I paid attention.   I hope the Giants see Young the same way as you.  I suspect though he's their guy if they can take him. 

 

 

 

 

 

Just saying I only saw Chase play 2 games at end of the year, against Mich and Wisc and he had zero sacks and a handful of tackles. Was not impressed and everyone is saying he is the next L Taylor? He was handled by all 4 tackles in both games. Now mabe he lit up Miami of Ohio or Cincinnati but in the 2 games I watched him he was invisible. 

[Warhead36]

You draft a guy for what he can do for you for the next decade, not for a couple games played at age 21.

[Mr. Sinister]

"Tank Bowl: The Sequel"

[Mania]

15 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Could be way off base on this line of thinking, but I wonder if a new CBA for the 2021 season will have an impact on rookie contracts. Not back to the levels of years gone by, but say there was likely to be decent increase in the rookie pay scale, or that the parameters of the deals may change, like renegotiate after 3 years instead of 4 years.

 

Perhaps a player like Young returning to college in 2020 would have some financial background to the decision?

 

No idea, just a randomn thought.

I don't think this would be one of the reasons.  I absolutely believe the rookie pay scale will change and I know one sticking point is the 5th year option.  Not sure if owners will be willing to get rid of that, but I could see that being a higher dollar amount as well as franchise tag being a higher cost to the team.  Again players don't want any version of the franchise tag or 5th year option.  

 

 

On 12/14/2019 at 2:35 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I bet the Giants go Thomas or Wirfs or Wills or trade down from #2 versus taking Jeudy if Chase doesn't enter the draft.  Giants have really good guards but lousy tackles so a tackle I think is where they go.   Especially if Gettleman is still there since he's a build the trenches kind of guy.

 

But frankly I wouldn't care if they took Jeudy.  I like Jeudy but I'd take Lamb over him or at the least the two players IMO are close enough.  Yet, I don't think we'd go receiver either.  I think both the Giants and Redskins go for a tackle if Young is gone.   Similar to the Trent-Okung dynamic in 2010.

If Chase is in the draft, I see them going that route, but if he isn't, they may want an OBJ replacemtn in Jeudy or as you mentioned an OT.  

[Going Commando]

10 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

Just saying I only saw Chase play 2 games at end of the year, against Mich and Wisc and he had zero sacks and a handful of tackles. Was not impressed and everyone is saying he is the next L Taylor? He was handled by all 4 tackles in both games. Now mabe he lit up Miami of Ohio or Cincinnati but in the 2 games I watched him he was invisible. 

 

He almost single-handedly beat Wisconsin in the first game.  This kid is a monster.  The no-brainer top non QB in the draft and the best edge rush prospect to come out since Mack.  #3 is his floor.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

Just saying I only saw Chase play 2 games at end of the year, against Mich and Wisc and he had zero sacks and a handful of tackles. Was not impressed and everyone is saying he is the next L Taylor? He was handled by all 4 tackles in both games. Now mabe he lit up Miami of Ohio or Cincinnati but in the 2 games I watched him he was invisible. 

 

In those same two games though he was double teamed plenty, heck someone put a post on twitter I recall showing a chip and 2 guys on him on one play so in effect 3.    Those weren't his best games.  But by and large he's been insane.  Even when he isn't getting sacks, he's putting pressure and occupying the O line.  He's a menace.  We don't have anyone like him on our current squad IMO. 

 

I'd go as far as saying if the Giants end up with Chase, they will be the better team than us next year.    He is as perfect for that defense which already has monsters in the middle as he is for ours.  

8 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

"Tank Bowl: The Sequel"

 

I've never been this nervous for a sporting contest where I want my team to lose.  I hope Engram comes back for it.  

[HigSkin]

Sheesh....we gotta get some young talented tackles in here!

 

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just watched a cutup on Youtube of every Haskins play.  [<-- Link] Specifically looking at Wes Martin.  Not much in the way of run blocking snaps there, but Wes looks legit.  He did have some issues against Brandon Graham, #55, but he was basically lock down against Fletcher Cox.  Not many Edge guys are in the mold of Graham, Suggs, Justin Tuck, Joey Bosa, etc.  Fantastic leverage, first step burst to power, that can slide inside and do that in a phone booth on passing downs.  Aaron Donald is the epitome of that first step explosion, get under the pads and then drive them back, and I imagine Wes Martin would not look good against Donald.  But Martin looked great in pass protection outside of the Graham matchups.

 

I don't think the Giants have anyone on their roster who can do that, so if Scherff misses another game, I'm expecting Martin to be solid in pass protection.

 

One play I want to highlight.  Go to 9:35 in the above linked cutup.  Most OL would just push them way wide of the pocket once you have the speed rush sealed off.  But Martin keeps driving his guy so there's absolutely no way he can make a play, or work back into the play if Haskins started pulling an Aaron Rodgers/Russell Wilson/etc and danced around back there buying time.

 

Penn doesn't have the legs to do that anymore, and even if he wins a block, he'll lose it eventually as his defender can work to get free, or just keep bending around the pocket and then double back.  That's one of the current issues with our pass protection, Penn doesn't have the legs to sustain.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Alcoholic Zebra I feel like a broken record on this but interior OL can take time to develop in the NFL. Unless a guy is a top 1st round pick it’s even unlikely they’ll be stellar their first year. We hit IOL 2x last draft and I viewed Flowers as a stop gap to get to Wes. Rohrbacher (sp) someone who could step in at C next year hopefully. 
 

those guys don’t prevent you from drafting another IOL if there’s a stud there. Can never have too many OL. 
 

Also, Christian could very well be our future RT. He was raw so I’d expect him to be a Year 3 emergence if

its going to happen. But let him beat out Moses. You’ve got to get your LT though. And even if Trent comes back I think you have to address OT in the mid rounds and plan to draft a high LT in either 2021 or 2022.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just saw two cutups of Alabama OL.  Focused on Wills (RT, #74) but glanced every now and then at Leatherwood (LT, #70).

 

TDN has Wills as #3 OT and 13th best prospect in the draft, and Leatherwood as #4 OT and 33rd best prospect.

TheAthletic has Wills as #1 OT and Leatherwood as #8 OT.

 

I watched South Carolina (3rd game) and Auburn (12th game).

 

I'll get this out of the way, I don't think Leatherwood is ready to start in the NFL yet.  I think he struggles with speed.  I haven't focused enough on him to say more than that.  He's a developmental Day 2 prospect.  For all I know both South Carolina and Auburn have elite speed rushing from that side, who knows.

 

Con

Wills isn't the athlete we would expect from a 1st round pick.  We've been spoiled by two ridiculous athletes in Scherff and Williams.  Wills can't do what they do.  He can be a lunger when trying to connect.  Trent and Scherff are athletic enough they can get to reach blocks, connect, and win.  I don't think that's Wills, I doubt he can do that.  I think we'd need someone (FB, TE, whoever) to come against the run play direction to trap block and have Wills move straight to the 2nd level.

 

Pro

What he's great at, is when he does connect, especially cleanly, it's game over.  His leverage and power are his strengths.  He's also got this wide pass set stance where he shuffles his feet well to mirror.  It works for him, and it helps him mirror well despite lacking athleticism.  I didn't see speed as an issue for him in pass protection.  He's got the demeanor you want from a run blocker.  He wants to connect and shove people around.  I don't think I saw him lose his anchor in pass protection once.

 

Questionmark

A possible issue, and I'd need to see him go against more talented Edge guys.  He lost to a spin move back to the inside once.  With his wide shuffle steps, how well does he redirect back towards someone going outside that has a good inside counter?  How good were the guys he faced?  He anchored extremely well in pass pro, but maybe the guys he faced can't convert speed to power at all.  He's got an unusual wide shuffle pass set, he's a RT, is it possible he's comfortable doing that to the right and not to the left?

[Going Commando]

@Alcoholic Zebra  Wills has clunky feet in his shuffle but he's got explosive quickness off the snap and his jump sets look effective to me.  He's got that long arm technique to reach guys too.  He wins with hands and length and I think his handwork is unusually proficient for his level.  I don't think he really has any significant limitations as a run blocker.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I don't think he really has any significant limitations as a run blocker.

 

Hmm, he doesn't really.  Maybe I'm exaggerating his lack of athleticism a bit.  I think he's average at worst in the things I said in the "con" section. 

 

I think normally on reach blocks by the OT, you have the Guard do a quick punch or forearm shiver or something on the DT so the OT can catch up.  But with the athletic guys like Trent, Scherff, Jason Peters, Kelce, Tyron Smith, you can experiment with them doing the reach block alone so the OL next to them can release to the 2nd level a step quicker.  See how the DT read&reacts and then call it.

 

I don't think Wills is going to be making those blocks alone, without a Guard slowing the DT down.

[Stadium-Armory]

I normally don't love the idea of taking a WR in the top five, especially when you can find guys like Michael Thomas and Terry McLauren, 40 to 70 picks later (respectively). Jeudy does look like a guy whose game will translate nicely to the NFL though (being a route running specialist). I'm in the BPA camp. If we think he's the BPA, take him. I'm just not convinced he is.

[ThePackisback]

On December 9, 2019 at 11:58 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

The Giants really are straight up trash.

You you guys should get Chase Young in the draft.

[philibusters]

5 hours ago, Stadium-Armory said:

I normally don't love the idea of taking a WR in the top five, especially when you can find guys like Michael Thomas and Terry McLauren, 40 to 70 picks later (respectively). Jeudy does look like a guy whose game will translate nicely to the NFL though (being a route running specialist). I'm in the BPA camp. If we think he's the BPA, take him. I'm just not convinced he is.

 

My philosophy is pretty always the same regardless of the year.  To me you always factor in team need into a pick.  At some point raw talent and the ability to upgrade a position overrides the biggest team need, but you always factor it in.

 

If we didn't have Terry McLaurin, I would be happy to use the 4th pick on Jeudy.  But with McLaurin on the team for the next four years and with Donald Penn likely gone and Morgan Moses probably not part of the team after his current contract ends after the 2021 season, we need one Tackle for next year and two more in the next three years.  Likewise we'll need a corner. To me O-Line and corner are the two biggest needs with TE third.  If we don't get Chase Young OLB would be four, though Ryan Anderson all of a sudden looks like a possible replacement for Ryan Kerrigan so a little bit less urgency there than before.

 

What we do in free agency will also affect what we need to do in the draft. All that assumes we don't make a big move in free agency.  That said of the needs that could get filled in free agency I assume TE is the easiest  because you can get a good TE for 6 or 7 million a season and corner is the second likeliest where we can probably get a decent corner if 10-12 million.  Its not impossible but I thinks less likely we are able to really get a long term answer for the O-Line is free agency.

[Going Commando]

43 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Hmm, he doesn't really.  Maybe I'm exaggerating his lack of athleticism a bit.  I think he's average at worst in the things I said in the "con" section. 

 

I think normally on reach blocks by the OT, you have the Guard do a quick punch or forearm shiver or something on the DT so the OT can catch up.  But with the athletic guys like Trent, Scherff, Jason Peters, Kelce, Tyron Smith, you can experiment with them doing the reach block alone so the OL next to them can release to the 2nd level a step quicker.  See how the DT read&reacts and then call it.

  

 I don't think Wills is going to be making those blocks alone, without a Guard slowing the DT down.

 

You're talking about reaching from the back side of the play?  I was thinking you were talking about reach blocking from the play side.  An offensive tackle's not going to be responsible for a DT on a play-side reach.  I thought your concern was that Wills just isn't fast enough to get to the contain man in time to stick that kind of block.  My answer was that (even though he doesn't do it that often for Bama) he can execute those blocks with his long arm technique and unusual hand strength and skill.  He gets you on that inside number and in your armpit where it hurts and controls you so he doesn't have to be the most fleet-footed lineman to be a devastating play-side run blocker.

 

I think he might actually be the best run blocking OT in the class.  He is a technician that has explosive power in his hands.

 

I think the lack of speed shows up more in the clunky footwork of his slide and the ordinary depth he can achieve on his vertical sets.  He'll be vulnerable to fast counter rushers given the change of direction agility.  But again, he can compensate for this quite a bit with superior handwork.  And he can jump guys with that explosive initial quickness going forwards.  If you give him help and let him be aggressive in his sets, he could maul even good rushers.

 

I would say he's clearly not as gifted as Thomas and Wirfs are and would not be as good playing on an island at LT as they will be.  But he has some superior skills to them and I could see him being a better RT than they are LT.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@philibusters I agree on the draft being slightly predicated on what happens in free agency. We need to get a TE in FA regardless. Even if Jordan Reed is back he can’t be counted on, period. I’m going to assume he’s gone actually. So you need at least 2 TE this off season to pair with Sprinkle. 
 

I think TE and CB are most likely to be addressed in FA. We’ll have cap space to throw at a Norman replacement. Probably a couple depth vets here or there. For TE you almost have to get a guy to play starter. TEs take at least 1 year to develop and you’ll need an immediate impact guy + a young guy to groom. 

 

If we assume Trent is gone and we get some draft compensation, and we land a top flight CB in free agency, then I think your top needs are as follows:

 

1. LT

2. TE

3. WR

4. EDGE

5. RT

6. CB
 

Chase Young would be baller tho. He and Sweat would set you up for a generational of wreaking havoc. And that + your interior strengths really masks some of the coverage issues on the back end. 
 

But if you go Young at 2 you need to spend just about every other pick on offense

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Maybe the best case scenario is ending up with 2 and Miami at 3. Trade them 2 (Tua) and Trent for 3 and the PIT+HOU 1sts. Take Young at 3 and have 2 late 1st to throw at OT and WR/TE 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

My philosophy is pretty always the same regardless of the year.  To me you always factor in team need into a pick.  At some point raw talent and the ability to upgrade a position overrides the biggest team need, but you always factor it in.

 

 

I agree with you on principle, but the sticking point is how much to factor in need.  A lot depends on the situation at hand, but I think one of the biggest mistakes that teams make is factoring in need too much.  Part of the reason for this is, when you reach on guys to fill needs, what you're ultimately paying is opportunity cost.  And figuring out how much opportunity cost you just paid is almost always murky until years down the road.  So teams get short sighted and start reaching.  Even good drafting ones who've built up good rosters via the draft.

 

Sticking to a BPA philosophy takes a lot of the psychological perils and losses in perspective that lead to reaching and paying huge opportunity cost out of the equation.  It's the safest way to draft and as the draft is a super speculative and risky endeavor, minimizing your risk leads to better long term success.

 

But again, BPA can backfire if your roster is such that your BPA pick isn't going to get a decent opportunity.  So you're right, every choice will regard position and need at a basic level.

 

That's why the tiered system is the best.  Make tiers and take the player at the biggest position of need in the best tier available.  Don't take players from lower tiers if higher tiered players are still on the board, even if you're relatively flush at the position.  This way gives your draft picks the clearest path to playing time without committing damaging reaches.  The key becomes about the accuracy of your evaluation rather than issues with philosophy.

[OVCChairman]

27 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Maybe the best case scenario is ending up with 2 and Miami at 3. Trade them 2 (Tua) and Trent for 3 and the PIT+HOU 1sts. Take Young at 3 and have 2 late 1st to throw at OT and WR/TE 

 

 

I would crap if we could pull something like this off. 

[kingdaddy]

On 12/16/2019 at 12:46 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He almost single-handedly beat Wisconsin in the first game.  This kid is a monster.  The no-brainer top non QB in the draft and the best edge rush prospect to come out since Mack.  #3 is his floor.

And he killed Penn State...huge game. 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Maybe the best case scenario is ending up with 2 and Miami at 3. Trade them 2 (Tua) and Trent for 3 and the PIT+HOU 1sts. Take Young at 3 and have 2 late 1st to throw at OT and WR/TE 

If we end up with #2 it's gonna get real juicy at the top. The Giants will likely offer the world to the Bengals to leapfrog us and take Young. The Bengals will know that Burrow makes it to at least the 3 spot where Miami is. They would then have to deal up to 3 to take Burrow unless Miami wants Burrow? If the Bengals like both Burrow and Tua they could easily trade out of #1 and get one of those 2 QB's at 4. Hopefully they're hell bent on Burrow and won't trade out. If we are sitting at 2 and there's no Chase Young, chances are we're movin out which will really mess with the Bengals if they dealt the #1 overall pick cause we can trade with Oakland who would jump up to #2 and take Burrow. Or maybe Jax gets involved??? This thing gets real dicey if we end up in the 2 spot.

[HigSkin]

Todd McShay's first mock is out - here's 1-10

 

Bengals - Burrow

Giants - Chase Young

Skins - Jeudy

Dolphins - Tua

Lions - Jeff Okudah

Cardinals - CeeDee Lamb

Jets - Andrew Thomas

Jags - Isaiah Simmons

Panthers - Derrick Brown

Chargers - Justin Herbert

[skinny21]

@stevemcqueen1 - right there with you.  I would add scarcity and hit rate as factors as well, albeit lesser ones.  Given the choice between a receiver in a deep class or a tackle in a top heavy class (where our next pick is in the 3rd) I might lean OT.  Probably not a great example as I believe OT is clearly the biggest need, but you get the idea.  
 

(^ not meant to imply you weren’t counting those factors)

[philibusters]

3 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Todd McShay's first mock is out - here's 1-10

 

Bengals - Burrow

Giants - Chase Young

Skins - Jeudy

Dolphins - Tua

Lions - Jeff Okudah

Cardinals - CeeDee Lamb

Jets - Andrew Thomas

Jags - Isaiah Simmons

Panthers - Derrick Brown

Chargers - Justin Herbert

 

From a Redskins perspective I would rate those 10 guys in this order:

 

1.  Young

2.  Thomas

3.   Okudah

4.  Simmons

5.  Jeudy

6.  Lamb

7.  Burrow

8.  Brown

9.  Tua

10.  Herbert

 

The first 6 would all fill some need.  7-10 are positions where we don't have a need or at least its not clear if we have a need there.  The top 6 guys would all probably be in my top 10 for the Redskins, the last 4 guys would not be in a list of my top 10 wishes for the redskins.

 

You could also throw in value of rookie contracts as a factor.  A top WR (Julio Jones) makes 22 million per year whereas a top MLB (Kuechly) makes 12 million a year.  Getting the highest paid positions like QB, WR, and Edge on rookie contract is more valuable from a savings perspective than say RB, LB's (not including edges) or S's.

 

And like the poster above said, the hit vs. bust rate matters too.