2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I would crap if we could pull something like this off. 

We couldn't. Under Bruce at least.

The chances of it happening at all would be pretty hard to see even if the Skins wanted to get it done. Idk. Just spitballing dream scenarios.

Damn, I didn't realize the Skins dropped from 3 to 4 in the draft order. Miami leapfrogged us. I assumed if we lose out that we would finish ahead of Miami, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

[Panninho]

2 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Maybe the best case scenario is ending up with 2 and Miami at 3. Trade them 2 (Tua) and Trent for 3 and the PIT+HOU 1sts. Take Young at 3 and have 2 late 1st to throw at OT and WR/TE 

I agree with the best case scenario being us at #2 and Miami at #3. However, that is very unlikely to happen. I think it can only happen if we lose out and the Giants additionally beat the Eagles. Furthermore, Miami needs to win either against the Bengals or the Patriots and lose the other one while the Lions have to win at least one of their remaining games (at Denver, vs. Packers). The scenario for Miami is probably the most realistic one (win against the Bengals and lose to the Pats) but I don't belive the Giants will win out and I also don't believe the Lions will win one of their remaining games. Furthermore, I think we might have a good chance to win against the Cowboys, as they might clinch the division with a win against the Eagles next week.

 

Even if all of that becomes real though, there is no way, that we will get three first round picks from Miami to move up one spot in order to take a severely injured QB (even if we throw in Trent).

[philibusters]

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We couldn't. Under Bruce at least.

The chances of it happening at all would be pretty hard to see even if the Skins wanted to get it done. Idk. Just spitballing dream scenarios.

Damn, I didn't realize the Skins dropped from 3 to 4 in the draft order. Miami leapfrogged us. I assumed if we lose out that we would finish ahead of Miami, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

 

The Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys all won last week.  Since we play each of them twice and they are weighted double compared to the teams we only play once in our SOS that hurt our strength of schedule.   That said our SOS is going to be close to Miami's so what happens in the last couple weeks will determine who has the weaker SOS.  it could still plausibly go either way.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Panninho said:

Even if all of that becomes real though, there is no way, that we will get three first round picks from Miami to move up one spot in order to take a severely injured QB.

I included Trent being traded to Miami in that trade FWIW. Not sure it's a likely landing spot but the Dolphins might want a stud LT to protect their new QB and not risk taking a late 1st round OT to be that guy. Like I said, totally unlikely scenario, but a "best case" for me.

 

Otherwise maybe we can get the Browns 2nd rounder or their two 3rd rounders. But not sure what the market on Trent will be (or maybe hes back if Bruce is gone)

[philibusters]

1 minute ago, Panninho said:

I agree with the best case scenario being us at #2 and Miami at #3. However, that is very unlikely to happen. I think it can only happen if we lose out and the Giants additionally beat the Eagles. Furthermore, Miami needs to win either against the Bengals or the Patriots and lose the other one while the Lions have to win at least one of their remaining games (at Denver, vs. Packers). The scenario for Miami is probably the most realistic one (win against the Bengals and lose to the Pats) but I don't belive the Giants will win out and I also don't believe the Lions will win one of their remaining games. Furthermore, I think we might have a good chance to win against the Cowboys, as they might clinch the division with a win against the Eagles next week.

 

Even if all of that becomes real though, there is no way, that we will get three first round picks from Miami to move up one spot in order to take a severely injured QB.

 

I agree with that.   Miami would know that we would want to take Chase Young and they know that if we trade down to another team looking for a QB (say the 8th pick), that Young would be off the board (not to mention Thomas, Jeudy, and possibly Okudah) so that we would much rather trade down to the 3rd pick and take Young.  Thus I think at absolute most they would give us one additional first round pick.  That said, it would be a no brainer for us to take that.  Heck it would be a no brainer to take it if it was a second round pick as long as we are 100% sure the Dolphins won't take Chase Young with the pick.  The only risk to trading with the Dolphins in that hypo is that they value Young more than any of the QB's and decide to roll with Fitzpatrick for another year and address QB in the 2021 draft.

[Panninho]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I included Trent being traded to Miami in that trade FWIW. Not sure it's a likely landing spot but the Dolphins might want a stud LT to protect their new QB and not risk taking a late 1st round OT to be that guy. Like I said, totally unlikely scenario, but a "best case" for me.

 

Otherwise maybe we can get the Browns 2nd rounder or their two 3rd rounders. But not sure what the market on Trent will be (or maybe hes back if Bruce is gone)

Yeah I saw that a bit late. Still, I think in a best case we might get #3 and their third rounder to move up that spot (FWIW Chicago and the 49ers basically did the same trade 2017 for Trubisky and the 49ers got the Bears' first, third and fourth round selection). Maybe we will get #3 and their second and fourth rounder or something like that if we give them Trent on top. I'd still do those trades if they were actually on the table but as I said, it's highly unlikely that this scenario becomes reality.

 

In general, I think people overestimate the value Trent has. Bruce botched the whole situation, Trent hasn't played in a year and his health status is unknown right now.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

The Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys all won last week.  Since we play each of them twice and they are weighted double compared to the teams we only play once in our SOS that hurt our strength of schedule.   That said our SOS is going to be close to Miami's so what happens in the last couple weeks will determine who has the weaker SOS.  it could still plausibly go either way.

Okay so I ran some scenarios. If the "logical" team wins all the games the next 2 weeks ... and the following happen, here's the draft order. This is per the playoff prediction machine that also computes draft order.

 

Worst Case Scenario:

- Skins beat Giants and Cowboys: Pick 7 regardless of Dolphins and Giants and Lions

 

Best Case Scenario for my dream scenario of swapping 2/3 with Miami and getting Chase:

- Skins lose to Giants and Cowboys

- Bengals beat Dolphins

- Bengals 1, Skins 2, Dolphins 3, Lions 4, Giants 5

 

Likley Scenarios: Trade down to Dolphins could net draft pick haul, but you'd lose on Chase (likely to Detroit) but could probably get top OT at 5

- Skins lose to Giants and Cowboys

- Dolphins beat Bengals

- Bengals 1, Skins 2, Lions 3, Giants 4, Dolphins 5

 

Wildcard Scenario: Burrow, Chase go 1-2, Lions could trade out, take Tua or Okudah (too high?), but Skins still ahead of Miami for QB maneuvering/trades:

- Skins beat Giants, lose to Cowboys

- Dolphins beat Bengals

- Lions lose out

- Bengals 1, Giants 2, Lions 3, Redskins 4, Dolphins 5

2 minutes ago, Panninho said:

In general, I think people overestimate the value Trent has. Bruce botched the whole situation, Trent hasn't played in a year and his health status is unknown right now.

I agree with this. My expectation would be a 2nd ... or a pair of 3rds for Trent. Maybe that's undervaluing him, and he could sneakily get us a late 1st from someone like NE. But that would probably be wholly dependent on whether Tom is there heading into 2021 or if they are re-setting. I could see them going for Trent to go for it one more time with Tom if he comes back.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Todd McShay's first mock is out - here's 1-10

 

Bengals - Burrow

Giants - Chase Young

Skins - Jeudy

Dolphins - Tua

Lions - Jeff Okudah

Cardinals - CeeDee Lamb

Jets - Andrew Thomas

Jags - Isaiah Simmons

Panthers - Derrick Brown

Chargers - Justin Herbert

 

I think the names are pretty close to right but the order will be switched around.  That's a solid list pre-combine and bowl/All Star games.

[HigSkin]

 

[skinny21]

Regarding trading Trent - while he only has 1 year left on his deal, he and the new team are free to negotiate for an extension (if they’re both amenable) prior to the trade, right?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You're talking about reaching from the back side of the play?  I was thinking you were talking about reach blocking from the play side.  An offensive tackle's not going to be responsible for a DT on a play-side reach. 

I swear I've seen Trent and Jason Peters (in his prime) asked to do that on occasion.  I think most OT's won't ever be asked that, but a few are, on occasion, depending on matchup.

 

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I thought your concern was that Wills just isn't fast enough to get to the contain man in time to stick that kind of block.  My answer was that (even though he doesn't do it that often for Bama) he can execute those blocks with his long arm technique and unusual hand strength and skill.  He gets you on that inside number and in your armpit where it hurts and controls you so he doesn't have to be the most fleet-footed lineman to be a devastating play-side run blocker.

For playside reaching a contain man, I think his issues can be fixed.  He has a bad habit of lunging, including when he doesn't need to.  I think that can be improved.

 

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think he might actually be the best run blocking OT in the class.  He is a technician that has explosive power in his hands.

Yup.  Haven't scouted much, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think the lack of speed shows up more in the clunky footwork of his slide and the ordinary depth he can achieve on his vertical sets.  He'll be vulnerable to fast counter rushers given the change of direction agility.  But again, he can compensate for this quite a bit with superior handwork.  And he can jump guys with that explosive initial quickness going forwards.  If you give him help and let him be aggressive in his sets, he could maul even good rushers.

 

I would say he's clearly not as gifted as Thomas and Wirfs are and would not be as good playing on an island at LT as they will be.  But he has some superior skills to them and I could see him being a better RT than they are LT.

 

I'm sure you're right.  Need to watch those two as well.  If we get an OT in this draft, it better be from a trade down, or a developmental Day 2 pick.  It doesn't sound like any OT in this class is the total package that you would expect with a Top 5 selection.

[HoggLife]

3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We couldn't. Under Bruce at least.

The chances of it happening at all would be pretty hard to see even if the Skins wanted to get it done. Idk. Just spitballing dream scenarios.

Damn, I didn't realize the Skins dropped from 3 to 4 in the draft order. Miami leapfrogged us. I assumed if we lose out that we would finish ahead of Miami, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

We will best the Giants because it's the 1st home game of my lifetime. Then we will lose to Dallas only to give them hope and then watch them get bounced out of the fist round of the playoffs even tho they get to play at home. Then Skins will draft at 4 or 5 and get either Thomas, Jeurdy or Okudah. And either of those players will fit a big need for us. Thomas will replace William's, Jeurdy will pair with Scary Terry to give us a great WR duo and Okaduh can give us a shut down corner that could put our D over the top. I prefer Okaduh then Jeurdy then Thomas.

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Regarding trading Trent - while he only has 1 year left on his deal, he and the new team are free to negotiate for an extension (if they’re both amenable) prior to the trade, right?

I think this is posted in the TW thread or at least some debate on the matter but he didn't complete a full year.  Pretty sure it's still 2 yrs which should be even more attractive for a high pick trade.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Todd McShay's first mock is out - here's 1-10

 

Bengals - Burrow

Giants - Chase Young

Skins - Jeudy

Dolphins - Tua

Lions - Jeff Okudah

Cardinals - CeeDee Lamb

Jets - Andrew Thomas

Jags - Isaiah Simmons

Panthers - Derrick Brown

Chargers - Justin Herbert

Here's #11-32

 

11) LV - CB Paulson Adebo STANFORD

12) DEN - S Grant Delpit LSU

13) ATL - CB CJ Henderson FLORIDA

14) CLE - WR Tee Higgins CLEMSON

15) IND - WR Justin Jefferson LSU

16) LV - WR Laviska Shenault COLORADO

17) TB - DT Javon Kinlaw SOUTH CAROLINA

18) PHI - WR Henry Ruggs III ALABAMA

19) JAX - DT Raekwon Davis ALABAMA

20) MIA - DE Curtis Weaver BOISE ST

21) TEN - RB D'Andre Swift GEORGIA

22) DAL - S Xavier McKinney ALABAMA

23) BUF - WR Brandon Aiyuk ARIZONA ST

24) MIA - OL Alex Leatherwood ALABAMA

25) MIN - CB Bryce Hall VIRGINIA

26) GB - WR DeVonta Smith ALABAMA

27) SEA - DT Marvin Wilson FLORIDA ST

28) KC - CB Kristian Fulton LSU

29) NO - DE AJ Epenesa IOWA

30) NE - OT Tristan Wirfs IOWA

31) SF - RB JK Dobbins OHIO ST

32) BAL - DE Yetur Gross-Matos PENN ST

 

 

 

Seems like outside of Okudah, the CB class order could go any number of ways on draft day.  His first OL is Thomas at #7, then Leatherwood at #24, then Wirfs at #30.  That's surprising.  He's got Wirfs as a borderline 1st rounder.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Here's #11-32

 

11) LV - CB Paulson Adebo STANFORD

12) DEN - S Grant Delpit LSU

13) ATL - CB CJ Henderson FLORIDA

14) CLE - WR Tee Higgins CLEMSON

15) IND - WR Justin Jefferson LSU

16) LV - WR Laviska Shenault COLORADO

17) TB - DT Javon Kinlaw SOUTH CAROLINA

18) PHI - WR Henry Ruggs III ALABAMA

19) JAX - DT Raekwon Davis ALABAMA

20) MIA - DE Curtis Weaver BOISE ST

21) TEN - RB D'Andre Swift GEORGIA

22) DAL - S Xavier McKinney ALABAMA

23) BUF - WR Brandon Aiyuk ARIZONA ST

24) MIA - OL Alex Leatherwood ALABAMA

25) MIN - CB Bryce Hall VIRGINIA

26) GB - WR DeVonta Smith ALABAMA

27) SEA - DT Marvin Wilson FLORIDA ST

28) KC - CB Kristian Fulton LSU

29) NO - DE AJ Epenesa IOWA

30) NE - OT Tristan Wirfs IOWA

31) SF - RB JK Dobbins OHIO ST

32) BAL - DE Yetur Gross-Matos PENN ST

 

 

 

Seems like outside of Okudah, the CB class order could go any number of ways on draft day.  His first OL is Thomas at #7, then Leatherwood at #24, then Wirfs at #30.  That's surprising.  He's got Wirfs as a borderline 1st rounder.

 

 

7 Alabama players including 3 WRs. 

8 WRs total....

 

thats crazy

 

 

[Going Commando]

48 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

I swear I've seen Trent and Jason Peters (in his prime) asked to do that on occasion.  I think most OT's won't ever be asked that, but a few are, on occasion, depending on matchup.

 

I think I know what you're saying now.  You're saying you think Wills won't be fast enough to reach a DT when he's on the back side of the play because the DT will spike him or otherwise get his fit on Wills if he isn't combo blocked first.  To that I would say you might be right but I do think Wills has an explosive first step as a run blocker.  He's faster moving forwards than backwards.  Wills could switch to guard, but I think he will probably play RT at the next level and that his run game will probably be right handed.  So mostly he's going to be responsible for reaching the contain/alley man on runs to his side, or the back side pursuit player when the play is away from him, and that the guards will be the ones who are generally responsible for the DTs.

 

I could be wrong about the quality of his first step, but to me it looks good.  He doesn't seem to do a lot of exotic blocking though so it's not tested a whole lot.  Alabama's blocking schemes look pretty straightforward and their offense is pass-heavy.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Est.1974]

^^ I did pose that question a while back in that if Young is THAT good, would him going #1 be out of the question? The Bengals can also jump from the top of the second for a QB, or even get one at #33

[Skinsota]

Who says we wont be playing meaningful games in December!😋

Smoot can barely contain himself.

Should be fun leading up to the game.

[Mr. Sinister]

13 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

^^ I did pose that question a while back in that if Young is THAT good, would him going #1 be out of the question? The Bengals can also jump from the top of the second for a QB, or even get one at #33

 

Probably depends on if they think they can get some more years out of Dalton. They benched him, though, so I'd say no, and they'll take Burrow #1, because that's just how this league is now. If this was 1995 Young would probably be the slam dunk #1 overall pick

[PartyPosse]

7 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Maybe the best case scenario is ending up with 2 and Miami at 3. Trade them 2 (Tua) and Trent for 3 and the PIT+HOU 1sts. Take Young at 3 and have 2 late 1st to throw at OT and WR/TE 

Why would Miami want Trent? They just traded away a franchise tackle who was still young and on a rookie deal. Now they start with a new QB and a vet LT likely to leave after the year? With their amount of picks they're better off drafting a QB, WR, CB in the first and nab a LT with their pick in the second.

[OVCChairman]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

I think this is posted in the TW thread or at least some debate on the matter but he didn't complete a full year.  Pretty sure it's still 2 yrs which should be even more attractive for a high pick trade.

 

 

That is part of the speculation of why we put him NFI (non football injury) list.  Because it not only means we don't have to pay him his base salary, but it's more fuel to prevent this year from 'tolling.'  

 

The team is doing everything they can to not allow this year to count toward Trent's contract.  I don't believe the process has concluded because I THINK the NFLPA was expected to get involved.  I could be wrong

[nonniey]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I think this is posted in the TW thread or at least some debate on the matter but he didn't complete a full year.  Pretty sure it's still 2 yrs which should be even more attractive for a high pick trade.

A 3rd and maybe a lower pick is all we'll get.

[Est.1974]

21 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Probably depends on if they think they can get some more years out of Dalton. They benched him, though, so I'd say no, and they'll take Burrow #1, because that's just how this league is now. If this was 1995 Young would probably be the slam dunk #1 overall pick

 

Dare say you are correct, but a lot can shift in the next 4 months. The Bengals 2nd and 3rd rounder would get them back into the #20-25 pick range no problem. 

 

All depends how far Young can separate himself from the rest of the pack in the pre draft process in my opinion. 

[Skinsinparadise]