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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think that's worth it. WIth that cap space we could sign a couple decent FAs that can actually help us.

 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I'd do it for a 3rd, never mind a second. We have plenty of cap space. There is going to be a ton of value in the 2nd and 3rd this year, particularly at WR. There will be another McLaurin/Deebo Samuel. I'd pay a one time 11 million dollar cap fee to draft that guy. Even for a Lloyd Cushenberry or Clyde Edwards Helaire. Thats young talent on a cheap contract. Let's say we get 3 years of play out of a 3rd round pick. Even if you factor in the 11 million, for one year, You're not going to get a guy of similar age, upside and quality for 3.5 million a year in FA. It's a bargain, IMHO. 

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20 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

 

 

I've watched everyone but Asiasi and Moss so I'll leave them out.  I disagree with some of Brugler's takes but I have to say these TE's are so close in ability IMO that the combine and interviews for me would be critical and more so than the typical year.    Pre combine for me would be:

 

1.  Trautman -- raw but a beast if he can hone his talented

2.  Kmet -- well rounded, traditional TE

3.  Harrison Bryant -- explosive, might have the highest ceiling as a pass catcher, and can develop as a blocker

4. Pinkney -- down year last season but was really good the season before, I like him as a blocker more than Brugler does

5. Brycen Hopkins - relatively explosive as a pass catcher but too many drops, like Harrison Bryant is developing as a blocker and could get there

6.  Hunter Bryant -- best pass catcher of the group, but to me he's a poor man's Engram, Jordan Reed.  Too small IMO to contribute as a blocker. 

7. Okwuegbunam -- big dude, good enough blocker, decent hands.  

8. O'Grady -- explosive, blocks with attitude but personality is major red flag

9.  Parkinson -- try hard big dude, OK as a blocker (overrated IMO), decent hands.  He's OK but he's the one in this group I don't get jazzed about as far as potential.

 

IMO the 40 times for all of these dudes are going to be fascinating because it might help ferret out which of these dudes explosiveness translates to the NFL.   Watching Okwuegbunam as an example its hard for me to tell his speed, it wouldn't shock me if he's surprisingly fast or slow.    But let say its slow, I think that would drop him in the 6th round range, etc.  Lets say Harrison's Bryant's speed translates to some of his explosiveness on film -- that can propel him maybe as high as the 2nd.    Kmet comes off as a do it all type and safe pick relatively speaking but a slower than expected or faster I think would change his stock.  

 

Moss should be fascinating as for combine performance with him having a plate in his foot, etc. 

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10 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not all in for a SB run this year, but I'd rather have a couple decent 26-27 year old FAs then a 2nd round pick and a RB that has that kind of money locked up for still a few more years. Johnson's cap hit is $14 Mil this year and $12 Mil next year. That's $26 Mil over two years down the drain. You think that's worth one 2nd round pick when chances are that pick is Sua Cravens or Jeremy Jarmon?


Arizona takes on the cap hit from the signing bonus so it’s only $11mm this year and we can cut him with no dead cap hit next year. 
 

AZ has the 40th pick, which is the top of the 2nd round. Given all our needs and the strengths of this class, it makes a ton of sense to think long term and have a cost controlled asset for 4 years who can be an immediate contributor, while only spending $11mm in one year to do it. 

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37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Reagor is short of my top 5 at WR but I think he's going to be a good player.  If he somehow falls to the early third he's another dude I'd take and not trade down depending on who else is left on the board

 

 

 

 

I started watching him.  Pretty good.  Haven't landed on a firm opinion, yet. 

 

 

 

McQueen made me doubt Reagor, but the more I watch him, the more I like him. I like both Reagor and Dantzler for us. We really need to upgrade our team speed at WR, and in the back 7 of the defense. Both of these guys would help. I also think that Reagor is very good at tracking and high pointing. It would really stress a defense to have someone like Reagor across from McLaurin. Or in a bunch with McLaurin. 


One interesting thing about Reagor, is that for a guy that is supposed to be a combine freak, you don't see him running away from defenses for a lot of long scores like a Ruggs, Desean, or even Bryce Love type guy. I know he has legit speed, but I'm not sure he has that truly elite elite 5th gear. 

 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001101026/article/threeround-2020-nfl-mock-draft-10-steelers-select-jalen-hurts

 

I found it interesting that Reuter had Julian Okwara lasting until pick 69. I wonder how he would fit in at SAM...

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36 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not all in for a SB run this year, but I'd rather have a couple decent 26-27 year old FAs then a 2nd round pick and a RB that has that kind of money locked up for still a few more years. Johnson's cap hit is $14 Mil this year and $12 Mil next year. That's $26 Mil over two years down the drain. You think that's worth one 2nd round pick when chances are that pick is Sua Cravens or Jeremy Jarmon?

If I’m reading his contract numbers right...

Since the Cards would pay his signing bonus, I believe there would be little to no dead cap if the team trading for him cut him after 2020.  His cap hit w/o the bonus would be 11mil this year and 9 next year (if he were kept).
 

 Essentially, we’d pay 11 mil for a very good back (albeit with injury concerns) and a 2nd Rd pick.  
I understand the concerns of rising with AP and 3 backs with injury red flags, but the odds that at least one of them is available at all times is probably enticing enough for me.  

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Just watched this video of Chase Young against Clemson. Travis Etienne is such a good player. PFF loved him and had his as far and away the best RB if he came out this year. 

 

I think an underrated component of Chase Young is that he plays with some nastiness. He finished his tackles, explodes through the hips into QB's, causing their heads to snap back. When bringing guys to the ground, he accelerates his body torque, pounding them into the turf at the last second. I think there is just enough Ndamukong Suh in his game, without the propensity for after the play stupidity. I posted this in another thread, but I was disappointed in the Super Bowl to see Bosa let up on Mahommes on the second QB option that the Chiefs ran. Nick had a chance to break Mahommes in half on that play and made contact, but not the way a Sean Taylor would have. 

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45 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Edwards seems like a day 3 value in the same vein as Harmon last year. To me they're very similar, but testing will be revealing about any potential for superior athleticism. 

 

I touted Harmon on this thread last year, so I certainly like him.   Edwards is my 2nd-3rd tier type man crush this year among the receivers.  He's not my favorite receiver.  But he's likely my one or one of my favs in the group that's likely there in the 3rd-5th round range.  He looks faster and more dynamic to me than Harmon.  So I'd give him a nod over Harmon.   But will see at the combine.   

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On 2/8/2020 at 12:43 PM, Panninho said:

I see absolutely no scenario where Higgins falls to the third. Is that a wish or is there some talk that he might slide?

I see absolutely no scenario where Higgins falls to the third. Is that a wish or is there some talk that he might slide?

 

Depends upon how he tests. His 40 coming out of high school was god awful. We saw how fall Harmon fell with a bad 40. You test higher than 4.59 you are gonna fall, possibly very hard. He was 4.7 something out of high school, players improve those out of high school typically, but he's also a lot bigger too. 

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41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I touted Harmon on this thread last year, so I certainly like him.   Edwards is my 2nd-3rd tier type man crush this year among the receivers.  He's not my favorite receiver.  But he's likely my one or one of my favs in the group that's likely there in the 3rd-5th round range.  He looks faster and more dynamic to me than Harmon.  So I'd give him a nod over Harmon.   But will see at the combine.   

 

I agree with all of this. Harmon and Edwards might be similar players. I love Harmon as a WR4, but don't love him as a WR2. I just don't think he has the traits that you need to consistently get separation. Kelvin was a great pick in the 6th, but we still need someone across from Harmon that can stress a defense at the second level and consistently get separation if Mclaurin draws a matchup with Stephon Gilmore. That's why I like a guy like Jalen Reagor. It just makes game planning for our offense that much harder. Add in a legitimate TE, and we might even look like a modern NFL offense. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kelvin-harmon-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bryan-edwards-1.html

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1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Edwards seems like a day 3 value in the same vein as Harmon last year. To me they're very similar, but testing will be revealing about any potential for superior athleticism. 

Yeah, to me Pittman and Edwards both compare fairly closely to Harmon.  Pittman maybe a little smoother, Edwards a bit faster/more explosive.  Don’t think they have wr 1 potential, but I think they all have good value as #2s.  Drafting one of those two would at the least give us competition for Harmon and better depth.  I think Edwards’ speed (not that he’s a speed demon of course), puts him a tick higher than Pittman and gives him slightly more potential to overtake Harmon, IMO.  

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On 2/11/2020 at 3:22 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Baseball analytics/advanced metrics are pretty good.  You can isolate most of the relevant action of a play in baseball by following the ball, counting all of the stats that happen to the ball on the play, and then deriving analysis from those counted stats.  In baseball, action that happens away from the ball has relatively little effect on the outcome of plays.

 

Basketball analytics/advanced metrics capture less than half of the relevant information that's happening on the court.   TONS of relevant information demonstrating quality of play happens away from the ball and isn't measured in box score/counted stats.  But there is also a lot of other data out there that gets analyzed by teams that isn't available to the public.

 

Football analytics are garbage and counted stats capture only a tiny slice of the relevant information and context necessary for evaluating play.  They're always going to be garbage, football is not a counting stat game at all.  The only way to do a good and thorough evaluation of quality of play is for experts to watch, chart, and grade snaps for each player.  It's pain-staking work and there is no shortcut to doing it.  That's why we put so much faith in the word of outfits like PFF who are actually doing that work.  We're trusting their expertise, which isn't always wise, as sometimes they fail to properly evaluate/contextualize quality of play.  But at least they're doing the work of evaluating snaps and quantifying the quality of them.  That's where the analytic revolution has come  in football.  Making work accessible to the public that was previously only done well by the good coaching staffs on their own players.

 

Depends what you mean on the latter point. I use analytics w/evaluating offensive playmaking positions, I haven't looked deep into other methodologies yet though I'm curious what they're doing over at player profiler with things like DB's. They've repeatedly smoked out elite DB's a year or more advance of tape scouts. Tape scouting in my view is far less worthwhile. Riddled with confirmation bias, bias in general, and no agreed upon standards and a track record of being largely useless in evaluating college prospects. When the best you can get out of it is merely hitting more on prospects exclusively based upon quantity of picks and nothing else, the methods just don't work. I'm very impressed with player profiler and rotivz not impressed at all with the tape people. 

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On 2/12/2020 at 9:30 AM, Pick6 said:

I don’t like the idea of a trade back for multiple picks, because I am over the Skins just making good picks in the first round. I am ready for some elite talent on this team. I mean it is sad when the most elite player on this team is the punter. 

!?!?!?!

 

No offense, but good lord man, you mustn't be acquainted w/the decades of futility drafting that built this multi-decade long run of futility? I think there's plenty to recomend keeping it simple and just taking Young, but you need to note how awful this team has been at drafting until quite recently? Remember, Casserly was so bad in the nineties he actually made Cerrato look good, although too many people forget that (Casserly went 0 for the nineties until '99 (although there are a few Lang fans). 

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2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I’d do it for a 2nd. 
 

 

 

I Absolutely make this trade. While I like what Adrian has brought to this franchise, I would not think twice in taking on David Johnson and a 2nd.

 

1. Cutting AP would save us 2.4 mil against the cap

2. DJ is a better receiving threat than AP, and would fit better into our scheme of two-way backs.

3. DJ would be coming in as the no.2/no.3 high end backup to Guice/Love, similar to the roll that AP had but with the addition of a 2nd round pick.

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Just not a fan of Raegor.  The dynamic athleticism is top tier, but he's a soft player.  Doesn't run out his routes when he's a late read.  Poor effort as a blocker.  Alligator arms in the middle of the field.  NFL receiver is a crazy position to play and you have to be tough and hyper aggressive to be a good one.

 

I want a bullying and highly physical team like San Francisco, where everyone gets in on the act.  I don't want a guy in the locker room who isn't interested in giving effort when the ball isn't coming his way.  We don't need to sell out the culture for talent in a year with this many outstanding receiving prospects.  Give me Tyler Johnson all day every day over Raegor.  Give me Hodgins or Cephus or Edwards instead.  Competitors.

 

Switching gears, I'm having a hard time getting a good read on Proche.  Feels like he never gets open but always makes the catch.  His production is absolutely massive, and that means he's doing something right.  But I am having trouble visualizing his game translating to the NFL.

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2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Depends upon how he tests. His 40 coming out of high school was god awful. We saw how fall Harmon fell with a bad 40. You test higher than 4.59 you are gonna fall, possibly very hard. He was 4.7 something out of high school, players improve those out of high school typically, but he's also a lot bigger too. 

This is one of the reasons I might actually put Mims above Higgins.  Track athlete (21.30s in the 200 I believe), on top of other high end traits.  

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31 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

McQueen made me doubt Reagor, but the more I watch him, the more I like him. I like both Reagor and Dantzler for us. We really need to upgrade our team speed at WR, and in the back 7 of the defense. Both of these guys would help. I also think that Reagor is very good at tracking and high pointing. It would really stress a defense to have someone like Reagor across from McLaurin. Or in a bunch with McLaurin. 


One interesting thing about Reagor, is that for a guy that is supposed to be a combine freak, you don't see him running away from defenses for a lot of long scores like a Ruggs, Desean, or even Bryce Love type guy. I know he has legit speed, but I'm not sure he has that truly elite elite 5th gear. 

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001101026/article/threeround-2020-nfl-mock-draft-10-steelers-select-jalen-hurts

 

I found it interesting that Reuter had Julian Okwara lasting until pick 69. I wonder how he would fit in at SAM...

 

Agree, Reagor isn't Desean, Ruggs or B. Love.   Reagor though still has breakaway speed.   

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Just not a fan of Raegor.  The dynamic athleticism is top tier, but he's a soft player.  Doesn't run out his routes when he's a late read.  Poor effort as a blocker.  Alligator arms in the middle of the field.  NFL receiver is a crazy position to play and you have to be tough and hyper aggressive to be a good one.

 

 

I agree with some of this.  In contrast to Hamler (another smallish-speed guy with explosion) IMO Reagor is a more complete receiver from the context of bringing some physicality.    Reason why I love Ruggs (and I recall you do, too) is he's a rare specimen in that he's lightening quick, explosive and physical -- to me he screams star.   Then if I am thinking of the next run of receivers who are pegged as speedster-YAC types -- Reagor and Hamler come to mind.  

 

Reagor like Ruggs played a lot of Z.  I don't think Hamler can get away with playing Z and or beating press that easily. 

 

Like you I'd prefer it if Reagor were more physical.  But I don't see him as a hopeless case on that front.   With Reagor he's fairly good as for catching the ball when a CB is draped on him.  I don't make him to be a contested catch guy (though he has some moments on that front) but he comes down with the ball quite often even if a CB is right there with him.  

 

As for dropping the ball in the middle of the field.  I am not sure if its not just about his hands as opposed to fear.  He's an odd duck in that he can make some acrobatic catches on one play and then have concentration drops on the other.  That to me is one of the things he needs to fix -- concentration drops.  As for his run blocking, its not what I'd like it to be.  But it's really more IMO about inconsistent blocking as opposed to him just being a bad blocker.  I didn't have to look that hard to find some at the very least decent blocks coming from him -- I show it in the last 3 clips where he's at least willing.

 

I look at Reagor in that 2nd tier group of receivers.  And to me in the third round range if he falls, he'd be a good value.  I think he's going to put up some big numbers in the NFL if he finds himself with the right team.   Like you, I do have a preference for some physicality.  It's part of the reason why I like Bryan Edwards and Mims more than most.  But if Kyle Smith drafts Reagor, I'd be all in. 

 

 

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On 2/12/2020 at 10:48 AM, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@Alcoholic Zebra some of those numbers are a bit off from what I have seen but nothing too ridiculous.

 

We gotta remember that the top paid positions in the NFL are:

1. QB

2. Edge

3. WR

4. CB

5. OT

 

If we decide to draft a CB in the 3rd, WR in the 4th and Chase Young in the 1st we will have ...

 

QB: Haskins @ $5m when avg. starting QB salary is around $25m ... this will be even more valuable once we move on from Smith after 2020

 

WR: McLaurin, Rookie 4th, Harmon, Sims all making less than $800k with our lone expensive starter being Richardson ($8m) when the avg. WR1 makes $15-20m and the avg. WR2 usually falls in that $10-12m range

 

Edge: Chase Young and Montez Sweat both making between $4 and 7 million when the average high end pass rusher makes $15-22m

 

DT: Daron Payne, John Allen and Matt Ionidis all making less than $6m per year when the top flight DTs make $15-20m

 

We would be paying top dollar for our LT (Trent) and RT (Moses) but otherwise our major elite positons will be filled with high-end talent on rookie contracts.


Also ... CB ... our assets in FA will likely be going there.

 

$11 million for Hooper not surprising. I think Spotrac has him at $9.9m APY value ... Henry at $8.1m and Ebron at $7.5m

 

@Fresh8686 I am probably going Edwards there but thats because a lot of folsk on here are talking him up and convinced me he'd be a good add in the 3rd or 4th

 

Yay. Was talking about this last year w/regards to our 1st. Generally speaking you need to pay attention to hit success rates and cap costs and be efficient w/your draft capital and not need based impulsive. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Just not a fan of Raegor.  The dynamic athleticism is top tier, but he's a soft player.  Doesn't run out his routes when he's a late read.  Poor effort as a blocker.  Alligator arms in the middle of the field.  NFL receiver is a crazy position to play and you have to be tough and hyper aggressive to be a good one.

 

I want a bullying and highly physical team like San Francisco, where everyone gets in on the act.  I don't want a guy in the locker room who isn't interested in giving effort when the ball isn't coming his way.  We don't need to sell out the culture for talent in a year with this many outstanding receiving prospects.  Give me Tyler Johnson all day every day over Raegor.  Give me Hodgins or Cephus or Edwards instead.  Competitors.

 

Switching gears, I'm having a hard time getting a good read on Proche.  Feels like he never gets open but always makes the catch.  His production is absolutely massive, and that means he's doing something right.  But I am having trouble visualizing his game translating to the NFL.

 

Yeah, lol, we are total and complete opposites. I like Reagor. Not ready to firm up views on the WR's, but for now, I'd be:

 

Tier 1:

1.Lamb: 77th Dominator, 81st breakout age

 

Tier 2:

2. Reagor: 74th Dominator, 84th breakout age

3. Jeudy: 36th Dominator, 81st Breakout age

4. Shenault: 68th Dominator, 66th Breakout age

 

Tier 3:

5. Tee Higgins: 50th dominator, 96th Breakout age

6. Tyler Johnson 98th dominator, 90th Breakout age

7. J. Jefferson 51st dominator, 75th Breakout age

 

Tier 4:

8. B. Edwards 94th Dominator, 100th Breakout Age

9. KJ Hamler 57th Dominator, 87th Breakout age

10. B. Aiyuk 82nd Dominator, 26th Breakout Age

11. M. Pittman 60th Dominator, 39th Breakout Age

12. H. Ruggs: 17th Dominator, No Breakout

 

Lots of reshuffling post-combine, I do expect the draft to inflate the hell out of Aiyuk, and Ruggs, while likely to punish Edwards, Tyler Johnson, and Higgins if his combine sucks. So that will also cause reshuffling, not so much because it changes my view of guys as just it changes my view of how much draft capital is necessary to get them. Based on breakout age, Aiyuk, Pittman, Ruggs are all just "DO NOT DRAFT" for me. We got our miracle in McLaurin last year, he dramatically beat the odds (basically about 1 out of every 8-12 WR's producing at a top 45 level in the league have breakout age's below the 45th or so percentile, it's quite rare. Doesn't mean a great breakout age means you'll be good, just means if you scratch off guys w/bad breakout age's automatically, you'll be right the vast majority of the time. 

 

Personally, I wouldn't consider taking a WR until round 3 or 4 considering the cost a lot of these guys are likely to be in terms of draft capital. Best values come draft day to me are probably going to be Tyler Johnson and Bryan Edwards, but I think Harmon does the same thing as they do, so I'm not sure it makes sense to do that. Not sure which guy I like better, but if either were there in round 4, I'd gladly punch the ticket and take them (and I suspect at least one of them will be, maybe both-pending the combine). 

 

Also worth noting the '21 class looks potentially deep as well (and awful at RB). 

 

 

 

 

 

'

 

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I got to stop watching prospects, too many man crushes for me this draft.  IMO this is a great draft.  We should be able to trade down in the third and still land someone really good IMO.  I believe others have talked about Davis before and if so I am late to the party.  I've been absorbed with WRs and TEs, lately.  😀

 

Akeem Gaither Davis, is a really fun watch.  A hybrid defender.  Poor man's Isaiah Simmons?  He's not the pass defender of Isaiah IMO or as good a blitzer as Simmons.  But he's almost right up there (maybe a half a peg below) as a speedy rangy run defender. Akeem-Davis is more the traditional hybrid defender, a tweener, versus Simmons who has the size to play just about anywhere.  Just about the exact same size as Derwin James, ironically. 

 

Davis plays with a lot of oomph and attitude.  He's fun to watch.  When he misses a tackle, you can see it eats at him.  It's rare to see the emotion from a player so palpable on the field but with Davis you could see it. 

 

He played all three LB spots, on occasion lined up against a receiver, played edge quite a bit in the games I watched.  He doesn't play in coverage anywhere nearly as much as Simmons at least from what I saw -- they play him closer to the line of scrimmage typically.  He has sideline to sideline speed, can chase down runners, plays bigger than his size (215-220 pounds), tackles well, he's a decent pass rusher.

 

For this defense, I think he's a weakside OLB but more so a nickel-dime LB who can be used as a chess piece weapon.  Like Simmons and LSU's Queen, he is an above average pass rusher for a LB.   I'd be really curious to see how he does in the combine because of he puts up some really good numbers, I think some would be sold that he can develop into being one of the better hybrid defenders.  

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

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On 2/12/2020 at 10:31 PM, volsmet said:

I’ve seen Cam Akers mocked in mid day 3, let me have him all day long.

 

 

McFarland mocked in round 6/7 - ridiculous.

 

 

 

He's just a really hard prospect for a lot of people because he was one of the highest ranked prospects period in his recruiting year, then did not explode exactly with FSU, playing behind literally a bottom 5 OL out of 130 or so ranked by those guys with PFF. He put together #'s, but not special #'s, so you end up trying to figure out, is he that guy that people thought was the best RB in his recruiting class (or 2nd depending upon which recruiting rankings people you read), or was he just overrated.

 

He is one of the rare examples of a guy, like his FSU compatriot Dalvin Cook, where I just watched him play and buy, buy, buy, buy, and I don't believe at all in tape scouting, so perhaps as per usual it's bias. But I am a big believer in his talent, and view him as someone who would've been ridiculous behind the monster OL's at Wisconsin, Georgia and Ohio State. Instead his OL was horse ----, and he struggled to even get out of the backfield before getting pulverized for much of his FSU career. I think he'll be a great pro if teams just give him the ball and believe in his talent. The combine will be a big deal for him. He needs to kill it there in terms of the 3 cone and the forty to help his stock and quiet some of the nay sayers. 

 

 

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@Skinsinparadise Probably my favorite thing about Davis - for his size, his ability to get off blocks is special.  His playmaking is awesome to watch, but the stacking and shedding pulls the other parts of his game together.  That’s what will allow him to play as a WLB rather than ‘just’ as a nickel or dimebacker.  It’s the difference from the traditional heavier safety moving to linebacker (albeit he’s not a safety of course, lol).  
 

He just looks like a complete linebacker to me - speed and fluidity to cover, excellent tackling, good rushing, and can sift through traffic and get off backs really damn well.  

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