2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I think the writing is on the wall for is to go TE + CB in the mid rounds. This may change if we sign Hooper. In that case I could see us waiting to add a TE that falls into the 5th. If we go Olsen I think you need to get a young guy to groom fairly early on. 
 

CB - if we signed 2 guys and keep
Dunbar I don’t think CB is a dire need. You’d like to draft a youngster

to take over should Dunbar not be extended, but that’s something you could easily do in next year’s draft. 
 

I do find myself wishing we had more draft capital. But I want to extend Kerrigan v. Trade him. And I want to extend Trent so we don’t have a gaping hole at LT to fill immediately. But to me the answer isn’t in trading #2, and the picks I’ve been craving are in the 3-5 range. 
 

Wondering if there’s merit to the DJ thing cause if there is I’m seriously debating it for a 3 or a 4+5 

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, 757SeanTaylor21 said:

If we were to trade back the one person I'd like to see drafted is ruggs....I think he runs a 4.2 and makes it impossible for teams to shade toward mclaurin

 

I am a Ruggs guy too if they trade back.  But for me they'd have to get a crazy haul for it to be worth doing.   So i am strongly in the lean against trading crowd. 

 

 

 

[757SeanTaylor21]

I agree with you a million percent @Skinsinparadise ... by no means do I want us to trade back unless young is gone. I dont even care the haul they do get if young is there. Take young and continue om the yellow brick road skipping along. But if he wasnt there...trade back and get ruggs. I'm a huge jeudy fan but I think ruggs is a marquise brown who I loved but faster

[Fresh8686]

I still have to dig into more late round CB's, but it feels like there is a drop off in CB talent after the top of the third and it might be best to pick CB at 66, WR in the 4th, and TE/IOL in the 4th-5th, and RB or S/LB flier in the 7th. 

 

It feels like most of the best WR picks will be taken by the time you get to the 5th round. Most mocks show a couple guys left over like Isaiah Hodgins or Quintez Cepthus at the top of the 5th but I could also see there being a run on WR in the 4th round. 

There are a lot of great picks available with that top of the 3rd pick though. If the run on CB's in the 2nd occurs like I think will happen, we could go WR, OL, or even LB and scoop up Amik Robertson in the 4th/5th to compete as a nickel corner.

 

Or we could also trade down from pick 66 to later in the third. If we can scoop up another 4th rounder that might be worth it, but it depends on who falls from the 2nd round into the 3rd and how the values all work out. I really want an extra 3rd or 4th round pick this year.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

I still have to dig into more late round CB's, but it feels like there is a drop off in CB talent after the top of the third and it might be best to pick CB at 66, WR in the 4th, and TE/IOL in the 4th-5th, and RB or S/LB flier in the 7th. 

 

It feels like most of the best WR picks will be taken by the time you get to the 5th round. Most mocks show a couple guys left over like Isaiah Hodgins or Quintez Cepthus at the top of the 5th but I could also see there being a run on WR in the 4th round. 

There are a lot of great picks available with that top of the 3rd pick though. If the run on CB's in the 2nd occurs like I think will happen, we could go WR, OL, or even LB and scoop up Amik Robertson in the 4th/5th to compete as a nickel corner.

 

Or we could also trade down from pick 66 to later in the third. If we can scoop up another 4th rounder that might be worth it, but it depends on who falls from the 2nd round into the 3rd and how the values all work out. I really want an extra 3rd or 4th round pick this year.

 

 

Corners tend to go earlish in the draft, I agree and more so than WR.  I keep reading from draft geek types that the CB position is very deep in this draft almost as much as WR.  I am just started to dive in with the late 1st-2nd round types in the hope that they fall but I'll keep watching. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I love that FB stuff. FBs and TEs back DC football? Yes please. Add bad ass defense and if our ball carriers can stay healthy, look out. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Article from today from the Athletic and a couple of past ones, too.  If you are looking for WR, TE, or CB -- perfect draft.  Looks like I am not wasting my time delving into those positions, looks like its on their radar.  

 

TE is probably the weirdest position IMO in this draft.  There are no top heavy obvious stars IMO but a lot of good (not great players) players with similar ability with potential.  WR to me looks insanely deep.  CB potentially, too -- I've just started to dive into CB. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is just truly horrible news to me. After three elite TE drafts, where we drafted nothing other than the scrub Sprinkle (who was a known in line mediocrity at the time with character red flags over that Belk Theft), we get the worst draft since at least 2016, if not longer, and now we're looking? Look, every year people try to shine the garbage positional classes in a draft if it's a need, but don't let them fool you. Six months ago the only TE viewed as worth a damn in the class was Okwuegbunam, since then his star has fallen while others have risen but the class itself remains blech. I don't see any reason at all to go after any of these guys. Makes a lot more sense to me to go after one of the guys from the '17/'18/'19 classes via trade, they're closer to productivity (TE's typically take 2-3 years to become consistently useful receiving options), and we have more information on how they've transitioned to the NFL. Other than Trautman, I'd pass on all these guys, and we currently don't have the pick necessary to get Traut. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

 

This is just truly horrible news to me. After three elite TE drafts, where we drafted nothing other than the scrub Sprinkle (who was a known in line mediocrity at the time with character red flags over that Belk Theft), we get the worst draft since at least 2016, if not longer, and now we're looking? Look, every year people try to shine the garbage positional classes in a draft if it's a need, but don't let them fool you. Six months ago the only TE viewed as worth a damn in the class was Okwuegbunam, since then his star has fallen while others have risen but the class itself remains blech. I don't see any reason at all to go after any of these guys. Makes a lot more sense to me to go after one of the guys from the '17/'18/'19 classes via trade, they're closer to productivity (TE's typically take 2-3 years to become consistently useful receiving options), and we have more information on how they've transitioned to the NFL. Other than Trautman, I'd pass on all these guys, and we currently don't have the pick necessary to get Traut. 

 

 

 

I am cool with them somehow taking care of the TE position in FA or a trade  Not sure how easy it will be.  Not a big crop of possibilities.    Have you looked at the TE crop in this draft?  

 

 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I think the writing is on the wall for is to go TE + CB in the mid rounds. This may change if we sign Hooper. In that case I could see us waiting to add a TE that falls into the 5th. If we go Olsen I think you need to get a young guy to groom fairly early on. 
 

CB - if we signed 2 guys and keep
Dunbar I don’t think CB is a dire need. You’d like to draft a youngster

to take over should Dunbar not be extended, but that’s something you could easily do in next year’s draft. 
 

I do find myself wishing we had more draft capital. But I want to extend Kerrigan v. Trade him. And I want to extend Trent so we don’t have a gaping hole at LT to fill immediately. But to me the answer isn’t in trading #2, and the picks I’ve been craving are in the 3-5 range. 
 

Wondering if there’s merit to the DJ thing cause if there is I’m seriously debating it for a 3 or a 4+5 

Yech. I pray your wrong in reference to TE. WR I'm fine about. Deepest class since '14, but this TE class is like the '16 RB class, straight garbage. A bunch of guys are going to be taken because they're the best of an awful crop, rather than actually talented. Don't make that '16 RB mistake again, pass, and pass hard. 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am a Ruggs guy too if they trade back.  But for me they'd have to get a crazy haul for it to be worth doing.   So i am strongly in the lean against trading crowd. 

 

 

 

Please for the love of god no. Zero breakout, market share was 17th percentile. YUCK. Awful. No, no, no, no. 

 

We already have a very fast WR in McLaurin. If you want a fast WR there are plenty in this draft that are fast AND good. Straight pass. 

[The Consigliere]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

I am cool with them somehow taking care of the TE position in FA or a trade  Not sure how easy it will be.  Not a big crop of possibilities.    Have you looked at the TE crop in this draft?  

 

 

I've been aware that it will be awful since '18. Big dynasty player, and acquainted with Devy people. They smoke out the caliber of the classes usually 2 years in advance, minus the odd go backs like Etienne, Hubbard, Harris etc. They knew about the WR quality of '19 and '20 years in advance, and the same for the horror of the RB classes in '16 and '19 years in advance as well. The same dread has been around for this TE class since at least the spring of '18. Next years class looks sketchy at RB, and only marginally improved by 3 guys going back to school in '20. On the positive side, it does look good at WR again and QB if Haskins prove to be garbage. 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

55 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

I am cool with them somehow taking care of the TE position in FA or a trade  Not sure how easy it will be.  Not a big crop of possibilities.    Have you looked at the TE crop in this draft?  

 

 

Also worth remembering we snagged Caleb Wilson off of the Cardinals. Guy was rated in the top 4-5 of the TE class last year by plenty of people I respect. Sneaky good option though the draft capital cost and the fact we got him on a free suggests he will need to impress immediately to make any headway. Hentges is no athlete, but he's also interesting, and appears to have some talent despite the lack of athleticism (a la Dissly). 

[Skinsinparadise]

45 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Please for the love of god no. Zero breakout, market share was 17th percentile. YUCK. Awful. No, no, no, no. 

 

We already have a very fast WR in McLaurin. If you want a fast WR there are plenty in this draft that are fast AND good. Straight pass. 

 

I recall debating you about this ironically about McLaurin among others last year.  I recall one of my responses to you was factor context.  So Ruggs is playing with Devonta Smith and Jeudy both of whom are studs -- that might have something to do with his demonitator score I presume?    What if he played in Arkansas?

 

38 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I've been aware that it will be awful since '18. Big dynasty player, and acquainted with Devy people. They smoke out the caliber of the classes usually 2 years in advance, minus the odd go backs like Etienne, Hubbard, Harris etc. They knew about the WR quality of '19 and '20 years in advance, and the same for the horror of the RB classes in '16 and '19 years in advance as well. The same dread has been around for this TE class since at least the spring of '18. Next years class looks sketchy at RB, and only marginally improved by 3 guys going back to school in '20. On the positive side, it does look good at WR again and QB if Haskins prove to be garbage. 

 

 

 

 

I am guessing that means no, you haven't looked at them but are riding on perception/numbers?    I recall you are more of a numbers than a tape guy.  But any value at all to watching players?  I get any skepticism you might have of any of our takes here from watching players since we aren't professionals but what about scouts?

 

But if its all or mostly about the numbers, dudes like Harrison Bryant and Hopkins (for TEs) have decent numbers.  Now if they follow up with big combines among other dudes, this class might not be as bad as some think even if we went purely in the context of analytics.  Will see.    Personally I don't think its great but I don't think its awful either.  

 

[Fresh8686]

 

Quote

1. Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (6-3, 312, 5.21)

Geismar, La. (Dutchtown), redshirt junior. Age 22.42 (calculated to nearest 100th on draft day)

A two-year starter at LSU, Cushenberry lined up at center in offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger’s offense, earning team MVP honors in 2019. He became the first offensive lineman to be awarded LSU’s coveted No. 18 jersey (only wore it in practice), which is presented to a player with high character and “does all the right things.”

Cushenberry anchors well in pass protection with his low hips and physical hands, quickly regaining his balance to redirect vs. counters. Although he doesn’t consistently bully in the run game, he stays connected to his man with quickness and tenacity on the move. Overall, Cushenberry needs to tweak some technical shortcomings, but he is an ironman with the lower body agility, natural power and dependable intangibles to be a starting NFL center.

 

2. Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (6-4, 320, 5.10)

Camden, N.J. (IMG Academy), junior. Age: 20.86

A three-year starter at Michigan, Ruiz was the starting center in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style offense, starting every game there the last two seasons. The coaches speak highly of his confidence and understanding of protections, which earned him playing time as a true freshman (Harbaugh: “Players gravitate to him and coaches like him”). While not explosive, Ruiz plays with efficient movement patterns and outstanding body control, sitting in his stance with the awareness to make quick adjustments. He moves his feet well to gain proper angles, load his hands and drive his feet, but sacrifices his balance at times. Overall, Ruiz’s technique tends to break down when rushed, but he is very steady in pass protection and continues to grow as a run blocker, displaying all the ingredients to be a longtime NFL starting center.

 

3. Robert Hunt, Louisiana (6-5, 314, 5.35)

Burkeville, Texas (Burkeville), redshirt senior. Age: 23.66

A four-year starter, Hunt lined up at right tackle in head coach Billy Napier’s run-heavy offense. Along with right guard Kevin Dotson (his roommate), they formed one of the nastiest right sides of the offensive line in the FBS in 2019, although he missed the second half of the season and part of the draft process due to his groin injury.

Hunt has stubborn hands to keep defenders tied up, not simply engaging, but preferring to strike and bury his opponent. While he rolls into his blocks to overwhelm defenders in the run game, he must use better sink mid-kickslide to win the leverage battle in pass pro. Overall, Hunt needs to clean up some bad habits from a mechanical standpoint, but his quiet feet, loud hands and competitive nature are NFL starting-level traits, projecting best at guard.

 

All-22 Takeaway: Lined up at right tackle, Hunt shows off his physical demeanor in the run game on this play vs. Mississippi State. He uses his powerful hands to latch-and-drive the defensive end, finishing with his trademarked nasty streak. Hunt has the skills to overwhelm his man without sacrificing his balance.

 

4. Matt Hennessy, Temple (6-4, 302, 5.05)

Bardonia, N.Y. (Don Bosco Prep), redshirt junior. Age: 22.43

A three-year starter at Temple, Hennessy was the starting center in head coach Rod Carey’s up-tempo RPO attack. He never took a snap at center before he arrived at Temple, but he allowed only one sack the last three years and was awarded a single-digit jersey (practiced with the No. 3) for his toughness, work ethic and appetite for football. Hennessy is alert and diagnoses quickly with his eyes married to his feet and his hands not too far behind, reaching three techniques with ease. While he isn’t a bully in the run game and will be out-matched by power at times, he does a nice job staying between the ball and defender due to his body control. Overall, Hennessy has only ordinary point-of-attack strength, but he is an athletic craftsman with his outstanding quickness, balance and attention to detail, projecting as an NFL starter in a zone-blocking scheme.

 

5. John Simpson, Clemson (6-5, 330, 5.26)

North Charleston, S.C. (Fort Dorchester), senior. Age: 22.68

A two-year starter at Clemson, Simpson lined up at left guard in head coach Dabo Swinney’s shotgun spread scheme. Clemson hasn’t had an offensive lineman drafted in the top-90 picks since 1979, but there is a decent chance that will change in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Although he has only average athletic skill and needs to polish his mechanics, Simpson is able to punch holes at the line of scrimmage as a run blocker and consistently gets the job done in pass protection when his technique is right. His intelligence and genuine intangibles are both strong selling points and made him a steadying presence on the interior of Clemson’s line and in the locker room (Swinney: “He’s one of my favorite kids I’ve ever recruited”). Overall, Simpson is built to be a road-grader and dominates his square due to his girthy body and brute power, projecting as starter-level NFL prospect with room to get better.

 

All-22 Takeaway: The main knock on Simpson is his athleticism, but he has enough functional mobility to execute simple pulls and screens – like this play against Texas A&M. The Clemson left guard does a great job luring the initial defender before disposing of him like a tackling dummy and advancing to the second level. Simpson and the pulling center easily take out linebacker and spring the running back with the inside tunnel action.

 

6. Damien Lewis, LSU (6-2, 335, 5.30)

Canton, Miss. (Canton), senior. Age: 23.09

A two-year starter at LSU, Lewis lined up at right guard in offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger’s offense. After arriving in Baton Rouge in 2018 from the JUCO level, he instantly became a favorite of the Tigers’ coaching staff, who praised him for his initiative and never-flinching play personality.

With his body girth and thick lower half, Lewis creates a surge in the run game and has an appetite for finishing blocks. While he was rarely overpowered on tape, he struggles to reset after he moves his feet, creating balance issues when asked to block in space. Overall, Lewis doesn’t have high-end athletic traits required for some NFL schemes, but he is a masher in the run game with inline power to wash opponents, giving him a chance to push for starting duties in the NFL.

 

All-22 Takeaway: Lewis loves his pancakes. When he has the opportunity to put defenders on the ground and bury them, he doesn’t pass it up. On this play vs. Vanderbilt, Lewis (at right guard) blocks his man to the other side of the field, nowhere near the football, and still made it a point to finish him to the ground.

 

7. Ben Bredeson, Michigan (6-5, 316, 5.34)

Hartland, Wis. (Arrowhead), senior. Age: 22.18

A four-year starter at Michigan, Bredeson lined up at left guard in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style scheme. One of the few two-time team captains in Michigan history, football is important to him, playing with a killer instinct and the mature toughness that translates to the pros.

Bredeson is a savvy, power-based blocker, who can create a surge with his hands. However, his initial reflex is to react with his hands, not his feet, which will tie him up vs. quick rushers at the snap. Overall, Bredeson displays the lower body tightness and athletic concerns that likely limit him to a phone booth in the NFL, but he is experienced, strong and tough-minded, showing the starting-level positional traits for a power-running scheme.

 

8. Kevin Dotson, Louisiana (6-4, 310, 5.30)

Plaquemine, La. (Plaquemine), redshirt senior. Age: 23.60

A four-year starter, Dotson lined up at right guard in head coach Billy Napier’s run-heavy offense. Along with right tackle Robert Hunt, he helped anchor one of the best right sides of the offensive line in the FBS the last few seasons, becoming the first player in school history to earn First Team Associated Press All-American honors.

Dotson is naturally strong with a physical punch to win the point-of-attack, displaying better-than-expected mobility. He tends to default to his power too often instead of trusting his technique and his snap-to-snap urgency could use a boost. Overall, Dotson has some untidy elements to his game, but he controls the line of scrimmage and physically moves defenders around the field like a pissed off club bouncer, showing NFL starting potential in a power scheme.

 

9. Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (6-4, 310, 5.29)

Media, Pa. (Penncrest), redshirt senior. Age: 23.22

A one-year starter at Ohio State, Jackson played left guard in head coach Ryan Day’s scheme. After only 11 wins over his four years at Rutgers, he became an integral part of Ohio State’s 13-win CFB playoff team in 2019 after the Buckeyes lost four of their five offensive line starters from 2018.

Jackson is a very stout blocker and wins with his natural size and energy, overwhelming defenders at the point of attack. His upper half is quicker than his lower half, however, which leads to balance and mechanical issues, especially in space. Overall, Jackson lacks ideal range and isn’t nearly as effective outside his square, but his natural size, strength and tenacity are NFL-quality traits, giving him the chance to fight for NFL starting snaps in his first two seasons.

 

10. Shane Lemieux, Oregon (6-4, 317, 5.24)

Yakima, Wash. (West Valley), redshirt senior. Age: 22.95

A four-year starter at Oregon, Lemieux lined up at left guard in offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo’s spread, shotgun scheme. He didn’t play on the offensive line until his sophomore year of high school, but proved to be a quick study and started all 52 games at left guard the last four seasons.

Lemieux moves with agile feet and enough body flexibility to leverage the point-of-attack and get his hands involved. However, his timing issues at the snap and with his punch will be even more pronounced vs. NFL-level speed and power. Overall, Lemieux’s lack of explosive traits limits his NFL ceiling, but he works hard to stay engaged and keep defenders occupied, projecting as a scheme-versatile reserve who should push for starting consideration by year two.

 

 

 

Quote

Conclusion

We have learned that the Redskins, at Pick No. 2, have different options that might be better than drafting Chase Young, even if the talented pass-rusher ends up like Von Miller or Khalil Mack.

• • If they want to trade down, there are several trade scenarios that would end up as win-win situations for both teams. The Redskins could ask for as much as all three of the Dolphins' first-round picks, which would be a huge chance to improve the roster significantly and surround Dwayne Haskins with a team he might be able to win with.
  • If they don't want to trade down or if they don't get the opportunity to do so, they could still draft a quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa or Joe Burrow, both of whom are supposed to be better than the generic first overall quarterback. Expecting them to be as good as Derek Carr or Jared Goff would be enough to make giving up on Dwayne Haskins and passing on Chase Young worthwhile.
  • They don't necessarily have to give up on Haskins in that scenario. They could let him compete with the rookie and eventually end up with the better one. In this scenario, expecting Tagovailoa (or Burrow) to have a mean outcome of the career level of Andy Dalton would already be enough to make that a good decision.
  • What we haven't yet discussed is they could potentially get some kind of a draft pick for the quarterback they choose not to go with if they draft one with the second overall pick, shifting the balance even further towards this scenario.

Whatever the Washington Redskins decide to do with their pick, they are certainly in a good spot to look into a brighter future.

 

[skinny21]

I haven’t looked into Sullivan, partially because of lack of production, and partially because I had read some not so favorable blurbs on him.  With that said, here’s what PFF has to say...

 

9. STEPHEN SULLIVAN, LSU

Draft Board Rank: N/A

Sullivan is one of the most intriguing tight end prospects in the entire class. A former wide receiver, Sullivan bulked up considerably to fill the tight end role for LSU. However, he was lapped on the depth chart by Thaddeus Moss and ended up playing all of 299 snaps this past season. His physical tools are absolutely off the charts, though. His 85 ⅛” wingspan was over five inches wider than the next closest tight end at the Senior Bowl, his straight-line speed jumps off the tape, and he could legitimately run in the 4.5 range at 254 pounds. But with only 14 targets last season, it's nearly impossible to evaluate him as a receiver.

 

 

That kind of speed/size/catch radius is indeed very intriguing.

 

As to TEs and analytics... I would assume it’s tough when you have predominantly slot guy’s vs career inline guys.  On top of that, TE seems so much more dependent on the offensive scheme and personnel.  That’s not even including the importance of blocking from the position.  

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I haven’t looked into Sullivan, partially because of lack of production, and partially because I had read some not so favorable blurbs on him.  With that said, here’s what PFF has to say...

 

9. STEPHEN SULLIVAN, LSU

Draft Board Rank: N/A

Sullivan is one of the most intriguing tight end prospects in the entire class. A former wide receiver, Sullivan bulked up considerably to fill the tight end role for LSU. However, he was lapped on the depth chart by Thaddeus Moss and ended up playing all of 299 snaps this past season. His physical tools are absolutely off the charts, though. His 85 ⅛” wingspan was over five inches wider than the next closest tight end at the Senior Bowl, his straight-line speed jumps off the tape, and he could legitimately run in the 4.5 range at 254 pounds. But with only 14 targets last season, it's nearly impossible to evaluate him as a receiver.

 

 

That kind of speed/size/catch radius is indeed very intriguing.

 

As to TEs and analytics... I would assume it’s tough when you have predominantly slot guy’s vs career inline guys.  On top of that, TE seems so much more dependent on the offensive scheme and personnel.  That’s not even including the importance of blocking from the position.  

 

I wrote up something on Sullivan awhile back, he's intriguing IMO for a late round prospect especially if he kills it in the combine.  As I mentioned I think this combine is more interesting than usual for the TE class and some within the WR class because from my observation so many of them are sort of on the cusp where you wonder about their athleticism for better or worse.   And some guys like a Harrison Bryant for example who look athletic/explosive -- its still hard to tell or at least it is for me as to the speed of some of the big guys.   Cole Kmet is another one.  He looks like he might be a bit slow but maybe he isn't?

 

My issue with analytics is I find it a useful tool to evaluate players but not the be all and end all definitive tool.  This is coming from someone like me who was a teacher's assistant in stats in undergrad, and post a ton of stuff from PFF, Sharp, Football Outsiders, etc.  I get their team prediction books and on and on. So don't get me wrong, I am into it.  But to me it's not the whole picture but part of the story. 

 

Let's take the dominator scale.  To me its just improving the odds by stacking multiple variables in your favor. Nothing that elaborate.  Using baseball as an analogy.  Is a dude who hit 300 for four seasons in a row more likely to hit 300 in season 5 than a dude who hit 260 the previous 3 seasons and hit 300 for the first time last year?  Yep.  The dude who did it longer is more likely to pull it off.  Is the base stealer who runs 4.4 more likely to steal bases than one who runs 4.6?  Probably.   A 4 year 300 hitter with 4.4 speed will likely be a better leadoff hitter than 1 year 300 hitter with 4.6 speed?  Sure. 

 

But to me that's not rocket science or that erudite.  It's just saying better stats increase the odds.  And I think we all intuitively understand that.  It's 101 logic.  And I am not minimizing looking at that stuff.   I do it myself.

 

But context comes into play.  Otherwise NFL teams would just fire their scouting staffs and hire a quantitate analysis team and just crank out numbers and pick the dude with the highest one per round depending on need. 

 

If you think there is a reason for a player breaking out late and let's say they have incredible intangibles and continued to grow.  Let's say that same team is loaded with weapons where it was not easy to pull the lions share of the receptions.    All those things applied to McLaurin and I stated them before we drafted him.   And his stats during his last season were sneaky good if you looked at them more closely.  Just about every report about McLaurin talked up his intangibles.    You also got teams with bad QBs.   You got teams that simply don't throw much to the TE.  You mentioned Sullivan.  From what I saw from Burrow, it was Helaire-Edwards who was his go to fall back guy on plays more so than him using the TE as a crutch.    On and on.  Context matters IMO.   And it's up to the scouts to figure that stuff out while using analytics as a tool in the soup but not as the whole bowl of soup.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Antonio Gandy-Golden.  He reminds me some of Collin Johnson.  Big dude with decent hands/catch radius but not very explosive.  Like Collin Johnson, draft geeks seem to be divided on Golden.  Either he's underrated and deserves to be in the 2nd/early 3rd round conversation and people are missing the plot if they don't agree or he's a late rounder type.  Like Collin Johnson, I am closer to the pessimistic part of the spectrum than in the man crush category about this player.

 

He IMO is a decent player.  Heck if you listen to the broadcasts, you'd think Golden is Randy Moss.   I don't see it myself.  He's playing for starters against inferior competition.  He's not twitchy (stop and go, cutting ability) or that athletic looking in the games from a runner stand point at least from the games I watched but I'll reserve judgment until the combine.    Ditto about Collin Johnson.  I'd be pleasantly surprised about both if they have good combines and if so I'd rethink this point. 

 

He has his share of drops.  So while he can make some acrobatic catches, he can also drop some easy throws.    He's feisty as a YAC guy and ditto with contested catches -- this is what I like the most about him.  I can see him potentially be a good red zone guy.  He strikes me as a Big slot guy in the NFL even though in college from what I saw he played mostly X.  He's not that physical on the line of scrimmage.   He's decent as a run blocker but nothing special.   I am not infatuated with him right now, don't hate him as a prospect either, I'll reserve judgment to a degree to after the combine. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I recall debating you about this ironically about McLaurin among others last year.  I recall one of my responses to you was factor context.  So Ruggs is playing with Devonta Smith and Jeudy both of whom are studs -- that might have something to do with his demonitator score I presume?    What if he played in Arkansas?

 

 

I am guessing that means no, you haven't looked at them but are riding on perception/numbers?    I recall you are more of a numbers than a tape guy.  But any value at all to watching players?  I get any skepticism you might have of any of our takes here from watching players since we aren't professionals but what about scouts?

 

But if its all or mostly about the numbers, dudes like Harrison Bryant and Hopkins (for TEs) have decent numbers.  Now if they follow up with big combines among other dudes, this class might not be as bad as some think even if we went purely in the context of analytics.  Will see.    Personally I don't think its great but I don't think its awful either.  

 

McLaurin was a miracle for us. He beat the odds (basically about 10-15% of productive receivers have sub 45th percentile breakout ages-he never even broke out to begin with). Do you really want to try to beat the odds again in a draft legit littered with prospects with outstanding profiles? On the outrageously attractive end of things you have Lamb, Jeudy, Shenault, and Reagor, on the got most of the bases covered but are missing something feature you have Jefferson, Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Aiyuk, Pittman etc and I'm just touching the surface. I get Ruggs is going to be elevated a ton because of "Alabama", "40" and the TD's, but he never broke out period, and he never seized a big part of their offense, it's exceptionally rare to hit on guys w/that profile, we just got lucky last year with McLaurin, I would not bet on getting lucky that way again, especially in a draft loaded with guys with far more complete profiles. 

 

I don't mean to ---- on so many people's preferences, but there are statistical models to help us shave off prospects that actually have a far less reasonable chance of hitting then others and we should be using them. Again, doesn't mean it's always right, it isn't, it misses like anything does, but it increases the odds of avoiding busts to use the models substantially. Over the years I've hit big on guys pushed down like AJ Brown, Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, Juju, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, basically about 85% or so of the guys currently successful. Some of the guys that slipped through the cracks include Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin. Michael Thomas (had the market share, not the breakout age), I could keep looking, last year there was somewhere between about 6-8 guys of the top 45 or so that had god awful breakout ages. Thomas and McLaurin are interesting, both having been disguised by the plethora of targets at elite schools issue (the one caveat you mention with Ruggs that is valid, to some extent, aint exactly easy getting targets at Alabama, a one time favorite of tape people, Zay Jones, showed how market share can be deceiving if your just playing at a school where there's no competition for targets (otoh, his breakout age was revealing, a pretty weak 52nd percentile). 

 

 

 

 

[Skin'emAlive]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

After waiting and missing out on Treyvon Wesco last year, I fully expect us to target a guy like Bronson. This pleases me. 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

McLaurin was a miracle for us. He beat the odds (basically about 10-15% of productive receivers have sub 45th percentile breakout ages-he never even broke out to begin with). Do you really want to try to beat the odds again in a draft legit littered with prospects with outstanding profiles? On the outrageously attractive end of things you have Lamb, Jeudy, Shenault, and Reagor, on the got most of the bases covered but are missing something feature you have Jefferson, Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Aiyuk, Pittman etc and I'm just touching the surface. I get Ruggs is going to be elevated a ton because of "Alabama", "40" and the TD's, but he never broke out period, and he never seized a big part of their offense, it's exceptionally rare to hit on guys w/that profile, we just got lucky last year with McLaurin, I would not bet on getting lucky that way again, especially in a draft loaded with guys with far more complete profiles. 

 

 

 

 

 

I am aware of the receivers you mention.  I've written my own profiles on them and plenty of others, too.  I agree its a deep draft at WR.   But it's irrelevant to the point at hand.  There is no chance we take Ruggs unless we trade down.  So this isn't about the Redskins.  He's not going to be there in the early third IMO.  NFL scouts clearly don't just ride off of the dominator scale so I think Ruggs is going early mid first to mid 2nd.   

 

Ruggs should get elevated because of "Alabama" but not for image reasons as you allude to but because it was a loaded receiving corp.  There are clear limits IMO to the dominator scale.   For example, I like Reagor a lot.  Yet, I'd take Ruggs over him.   Yeah I know Reagor scores higher on the dominator scale but its not hard to find reasons for that that don't require much imagination.   

[bakedtater1]

24 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

After waiting and missing out on Treyvon Wesco last year, I fully expect us to target a guy like Bronson. This pleases me. 

Dude looks like he swallowed McCaffrey lol

[skinny21]

Regarding Ruggs, his tape and athletic profile point to him being a solid mid-late 1st rounder.  The analytics though would make me pass in that range.  I’d take him as a guy that fell though if he were there in the mid 2nd on.  

[volsmet]

 

 

 

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