stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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16 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

This feels like a flawed methodology.  If you ignore one of the worst things about Jones and best things about Haskins, then sure, it's a lot easier to think Jones is as good as Haskins.

 

I don't think it's close between them.  I think Jones will work out for New York, but his ceiling is Eli.  An average starting QB.  Haskins has the potential to be an elite QB.

 

 

Especially when completion % is one of the biggest stats to predict success in NFL. 

 

Very few QB’s become more accurate when they get to NFL. 

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Posted (edited)

it’s not his accuracy though, he throws a great ball- his receivers sucked or he had to consistently throw too quickly bc his line was awful. I agreed that DJ will be a good qb and I understand the argument that he will be better than Haskins 

Edited by Inigo Montoya

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Posted (edited)

Having beat up Daniel Jones on this thread for months, can't resist chiming in.

 

I think Jones' ceiling is a marginal starter -- Case Keenum.  And I think he will meet that ceiling especially since he was drafted high in the first -- the Giants will likely give him a lot of rope to develop.  If people want say Eli OK i am not one of the bigger Eli guys I see him as a below average starter.

 

His upside is the quick short passing game and he's a tough SOB in the pocket.  He has good accuracy up the middle 5-10 yard range -- not so much out routes 8-20 yard range,  And for a dude his size he can move well.   He has nice mechanics and like Rosen when you watch him he looks the part.

 

The rest falls apart for me:

 

Average at best arm strength

Poor accuracy both with intermediate and deep passes

Poor under pressure -- yes, he has the right mindset to handle pressure in that he doesn't shy away from it but doesn't execute

Hesitancy to throw into tight windows

For a conservative low YPA dude, he's oddly turnover prone.   Interceptions.  Lots of fumbles.  Tipped balls.

He takes a lot of sacks

Has maybe the most timid, soft spoken personality i've ever seen for a QB

 

 

He's to me a tougher but turnover prone version of Alex Smith.  IMO Alex's strength is avoiding turnovers.  If you told me you'd get Alex but a turnover version of him, i'd say hard pass.  But like I said he's tougher in the pocket than Alex.  Alex IMO bails too quickly.  Jones is fearless. 

 

It wouldn't shock me if the dude is a marginal starter in this league, I'd be shocked if he's a franchise guy and be surprised if he's even an average starter.  But like I say the hardest position to judge for scouts is QB.  And i am obviously no scout so I could be dead wrong.   

 

If i had to think of my #1 rallying cry on this thread it would be no Daniel Jones.  So I am taking some perverse pleasure in the dude being now a national joke.  I think taking it that far is a bit harsh.  But my dislike of the dude as a prospect and hatred of the Giants -- is just making that narrative a blast for me.

 

I am not in love with Haskins.  But i am hoping he meets the rosy expectations of so many.  And I at least like the dude's upside.  I just don't see the upside in Daniel Jones.  Heck if by some chance it's Haskins versus Jones in NY in game 4, I am flying up to see that.  I can't miss it. :ols:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2019-contextualized-quarterbacking-duke-qb-daniel-jones

 

BIGGEST WEAKNESS: LONG GAME

If he wins short, he fails deep. I like to joke and call Jones the Josh Allen of the ACC because of his shaky accuracy, huge frame, and great mobility -- but the comparison stops in terms of the deep ball. Jones simply does not have ideal arm strength to reach far downfield, despite the mustard he can put on his short throws. He's underdeveloped when approaching downfield windows and gauging distance, timing, and windows.

Folks, to have only 3% of your total yardage coming on throws downfield, despite the fact that you have ~15% of your targets coming to that area...that's really bad.

Nice to see how many catchable balls Jones has delivered over the middle of the field, but those placement numbers really fall off a cliff beyond the 10 yard mark, which has to worry you. Within 10 yards of the field, Jones is throwing to his first read; he's making his decision and reads before the snap, when things are easier and timely.

But after 20 yards you've gotta see how things develop post snap, and that's an area in which Jones has regularly faltered.''

 

 

tightwindow2.png

tightwindows.png

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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On 5/1/2019 at 5:16 PM, Burgundy Yoda said:

When I said that I was simply saying I was looking beyond the stats. I'm just watching what I'm seeing and not trying to put the stats into perspective. I came away more impressed than I thought I would with Jones when when in comparison to his stats, and a little less impressed with Haskins then I thought I would in comparison with his stats in the end. I dont really see an inaccurate QB when I see Jones throw.

 

Daniel Jones is terrible. People are making rocket science out of his eval when it is simple. I don't think Jones has ever been able to throw the ball. I've been listening to a bunch of draft videos while driving, and apparently Duke wasn't going to offer Jones a scholarship and Jones' HS coach called Cutcliffe and personally appealed to him. He almost wasn't good enough to get a scholarship at Duke. Then, at Duke, he sucked. YPA less than 7.0. Never had a 3,000 yard season. Career completion percentage under 60%, despite always passing short. There is literally no historical precedent for a player that put up such poor stats in college having a good NFL career. I don't believe he can be an average NFL starter or Eli Manning level player. Manning was light years better in college. I'm SOOOOOOO happy that the Giants took Daniel Jones. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/4/2019 at 11:19 AM, Anselmheifer said:

 

Daniel Jones is terrible. People are making rocket science out of his eval when it is simple. I don't think Jones has ever been able to throw the ball. I've been listening to a bunch of draft videos while driving, and apparently Duke wasn't going to offer Jones a scholarship and Jones' HS coach called Cutcliffe and personally appealed to him. He almost wasn't good enough to get a scholarship at Duke. Then, at Duke, he sucked. YPA less than 7.0. Never had a 3,000 yard season. Career completion percentage under 60%, despite always passing short. There is literally no historical precedent for a player that put up such poor stats in college having a good NFL career. I don't believe he can be an average NFL starter or Eli Manning level player. Manning was light years better in college. I'm SOOOOOOO happy that the Giants took Daniel Jones. 

 

My simplest explanation of Daniel Jones is this:

 

For a dude with such a low YPA who didn't like to take risks -- how can he also be that turnover prone too?  He gets sacked a lot, lots of tipped balls, INTs, fumbles.  Conservative and turnover prone -- that's a lot to digest for me.   Then you add questionable arm strength and seeming reluctance to throw into tight windows and poor accuracy outside of 10 yards.   

 

If its Haskins versus Jones in week 4 in NY -- I am flying up to see that.  :ols: Though I doubt they sit Eli that fast. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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1 minute ago, Anselmheifer said:

Anybody want to start a 2020 draft thread? I'd love to see a breakdown of the WR's and OT's!

 

We'll also be looking at Safety and Corner.

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2 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

We'll also be looking at Safety and Corner.

 

Agreed.

 

WR                       CB1

OT                         FS

TE                         ILB

Interior OL           Pass rusher (will need to replace Kerrigan at some point)

 

That is a very achievable list if we can utilize FA and the draft well. If we hit with Haskins, we might be timing our personnel out to really have an open window starting in 2020/2021. 

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

And TE. 

 

Jinx. 

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Current projection is that we'll get an extra 4th rounder as a comp pick for losing Crowder. Other FA moves offset, the biggest being Smith out/Collins in.

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11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Agreed.

 

WR                       CB1

OT                         FS

TE                         ILB

Interior OL           Pass rusher (will need to replace Kerrigan at some point)

 

That is a very achievable list if we can utilize FA and the draft well. If we hit with Haskins, we might be timing our personnel out to really have an open window starting in 2020/2021. 

 

Jinx. 

Whether Haskins is a hit by the end of this year or not they will probably also be looking at a another QB. Probably keep one vet and bring in a mid to late rounder.

 

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Current projection is that we'll get an extra 4th rounder as a comp pick for losing Crowder. Other FA moves offset, the biggest being Smith out/Collins in.

Unfortunately down the 2nd due to the move up for Sweat.

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31 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Whether Haskins is a hit by the end of this year or not they will probably also be looking at a another QB. Probably keep one vet and bring in a mid to late rounder.

 

Unfortunately down the 2nd due to the move up for Sweat.

 

Agree, I'd intend to take another QB in 2020.

 

Hopefully Sweat makes that trade more than worthwhile. I think what is very evident is that the ability to trade either back or up in the draft is fairly easy in context. No reason to doubt that we'll end up with 8/9 picks in the 2020 draft after some trading about. Seems to be the way we roll these days.

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53 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Unfortunately down the 2nd due to the move up for Sweat.

Yes, but worth it. The value at that pick is worth a 2nd rounder. We'll probably be in the 10-15 range, and not interested in a QB. If one falls, we'll be able to move.

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30 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Agree, I'd intend to take another QB in 2020.

 

Hopefully Sweat makes that trade more than worthwhile. I think what is very evident is that the ability to trade either back or up in the draft is fairly easy in context. No reason to doubt that we'll end up with 8/9 picks in the 2020 draft after some trading about. Seems to be the way we roll these days.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Yes, but worth it. The value at that pick is worth a 2nd rounder. We'll probably be in the 10-15 range, and not interested in a QB. If one falls, we'll be able to move.

Make no mistake, I am not upset with Sweat, actually I am thrilled. Just pointing out we are down a 2nd rounder and wish we had the full compliment.

 

The last few drafts the FO has proven they can accumulate picks through trade downs which has allowed for roster depth. Trading a 3rd for 2 4th rounders was a great move. Perhaps next year they will look to also gain a pick for the 2021 draft. 

 

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32 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

 

Make no mistake, I am not upset with Sweat, actually I am thrilled. Just pointing out we are down a 2nd rounder and wish we had the full compliment.

 

The last few drafts the FO has proven they can accumulate picks through trade downs which has allowed for roster depth. Trading a 3rd for 2 4th rounders was a great move. Perhaps next year they will look to also gain a pick for the 2021 draft. 

 

Just for a counter point of view... I'd argue that the Redskins have plenty of good players, but they are woefully short on great players. If they believe that Sweat can become a great player (he's been compared to Jevon Kearse) then that is worth an extra pick. Right now, the Redskins just don't have any players that make opposing coordinators Sweat. Perhaps now, they might have one.

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27 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Just for a counter point of view... I'd argue that the Redskins have plenty of good players, but they are woefully short on great players. If they believe that Sweat can become a great player (he's been compared to Jevon Kearse) then that is worth an extra pick. Right now, the Redskins just don't have any players that make opposing coordinators Sweat. Perhaps now, they might have one.

 

Yanno, a lot of times that "one guy"  that plays outside the box and forces opponents to concentrate/gameplan for him frees up others, a rising tide lifting all boats. It seems that many posters here discredit or downplay some of our own players, we are building a nice D with some serious talent, but you need that one position that cracks it, brings that attention and pressure so that the rest swarm their asses. Sweat might be that guy but he's not the only one. The roster changed significantly and thereby the dynamic on the field. This season got more interesting for damn sure, but I still worry about the coaches being able to use them to best advantage.

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I know that Scotty McGem loved to talk about the importance of  blue chip players, and I agree that everyone should love them. But I think elimination of glaring weaknesses is even more important. Opposing coaches shouldn't be able to gameplan on attacking an obvious weakness

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2 hours ago, Blue Ridger said:

I would have loved to see WAS make a play for Odell Beckham Jr. WR is a HUGE need for us.

 

We weren’t in a position to do that. The cost would have been more than a first rounder. Probably a first and a second. That would have meant no Haskins and no Sweat. 

 

Now that we have a QB, and less holes, overall, we can focus on getting that WR. 

 

I’ll be honest. I want Jeudy badly and I think he’s with our 1st in 2020 and 2021 if we have to trade up. That would give us an excellent offensive and defensive core to build around. Haskins, Guice/Love, Jeudy. 

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The tradition was that either Dukes or me waits until the last minute before the college season starts to create the new thread.

 

I have no objections to it being started earlier, but I would worry about burnout.

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19 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

WR                       CB1

OT                         FS

TE                         ILB

Interior OL           Pass rusher (will need to replace Kerrigan at some point)

Priority Needs:

TE, we all know the situation.

 

Outside CB, Fabian Moreau played well when Outside instead of in Nickel, does that continue.  Josh Norman will be 32.  Dunbar played well when healthy...but wasn't healthy much.  This is one of those things where you can never enough too many talented corners.

 

ILB, Reuben is talented, but how much can we rely on him?  Our developing youth, Holcomb and Dion-Hamilton, do they contribute?  I don't want to draft a LB in the 1st unless he can do 2 of these 3 things great, and hopefully 1 other at least 'OK'.  Stack and shed on the interior, key run and be sideline to sideline, be good in both man and zone coverages.

 

WR, until we see how well Haskins throws to 50/50 guys like Doctson and Harmon, this might just be scouting guys who can separate with speed.

 

 

Lower on the Need list:

Edge/Pass Rusher, since we just theoretically drafted the guy who will help us transition post-Kerrigan.  Montez Sweat gives us wiggle room.  Resources absolutely need to be spent on depth though.  The talent/depth of each Edge class varies.  Like, if there was a clone of Chase Winovich available in the 3rd round of 2020, that would be tempting.  I don't envision someone like that as a future starter, but depth rotation for 40-50% of the snaps?  That sounds good.

 

OT, Geron Christian is Plan A for future OT depth.  Ty Nsekhe certainly developed well.  We'll find out more about what the coaches think of Geron Christian as the season progresses.  Also, with the added youth at IOL, and HOPEFULLY a Scherff extension, the OL as a whole should be in mediocre shape at worst?  Maybe that's too much optimism?

 

Nickel CB, in my opinion, Nickel CB should be in the Priority Needs section, but it's an undervalued spot, and good Nickel only prospects can be found in the 2nd-4th rounds of the draft.  Who knows, maybe someone steps up, maybe it's one of Danny Johnson, Jimmy Moreland, or Greg Stroman.  Maybe it's not.  We'll have to wait and see.

 

Damned hard to actually find:

FS.  Everyone has a different opinion, but mine is that most FS's in the league are average at best, and finding a true Cover 1 Single High capable guy is not easy.  Converted corners seem to be one of the better routes teams have found for that.  Also, FS longevity is surprisingly not that long.  Most get an injury or two and their play suddenly falls off.  As such, I kind of don't want to spend premier resources on FS, and hope for average play.  Honestly, before we got HaHa Clinton-Dix, was Montae Nicholson actually playing poorly?  HaHa didn't seem like an improvement.

 

Spots I don't want to touch until Day 3:

DT, we've got 3 talented guys locked up for at least 3 years

 

SS, Landon Collins

 

RB, we're stacked here at both bellcow and 3rd down options

 

QB, backups are fine, but not until Day 3.

 

Slot only WR's, guys like Crowder, Quinn, Edelman, Welker, etc are found late in every draft.

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58 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Lower on the Need list:

OT, Geron Christian is Plan A for future OT depth.  Ty Nsekhe certainly developed well.  We'll find out more about what the coaches think of Geron Christian as the season progresses.  Also, with the added youth at IOL, and HOPEFULLY a Scherff extension, the OL as a whole should be in mediocre shape at worst?  Maybe that's too much optimism?

 

 

Trent is beginning to show his age, Moses is always playing hurt, and Christian was probably a wasted pick.  I doubt we make it through this season without seeing OT as a significant need.

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3 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

Trent is beginning to show his age, Moses is always playing hurt, and Christian was probably a wasted pick.  I doubt we make it through this season without seeing OT as a significant need.

 

Certainly possible.  Our OL coach is good.  Moses was a wasted pick until suddenly he wasn't entering his 2nd year.  So I don't think anyone should rule out Christian yet.  On a need list though, the OT situation at least has an alternate plan in place.  Whereas other spots like TE, have no plan.

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