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Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018


Voice_of_Reason

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3 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

That's absolutely true, I just dont put this extra emphasis on game 1. 

 

They havent won the 12th game of the year either in Gruden's tenure.  They really need to do something about that.  

just for clarification, do you mean week 12, or the 12th game of our season the past 4 years? cause if it's the first one, then false, cause we beat the giants 20-14 in week 12 in 2015 (that was our 11th game of the season though) and we beat the giants 20-10 in week 12 of this past season as well (also our 11th game of the season). 

 

however, if you mean the latter, then yes that is sadly correct. all losses in week 13. 2014 L @ Colts 49-27, 2015 L Vs Cowboys 19-16, 2016 L @ Cardinals 31-23, and 2017 L @ Cowboys 38-14. 

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In fairness our last two season openers were against the Eagles who went on to win the Super Bowl and the Steelers who made the AFC Title game. We probably don't win those games regardless of how prepared we were. With that said, we were a Cousins pick in the RZ away from winning that game despite falling behind by double digits. And in 2014 we were just a bad team period but we opened on the road against a Texans team that went 9-7. I think people are overblowing our Week 1 woes.

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2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

In fairness our last two season openers were against the Eagles who went on to win the Super Bowl and the Steelers who made the AFC Title game. We probably don't win those games regardless of how prepared we were. With that said, we were a Cousins pick in the RZ away from winning that game despite falling behind by double digits. And in 2014 we were just a bad team period but we opened on the road against a Texans team that went 9-7. I think people are overblowing our Week 1 woes.

 

It’s not the fact that they’ve lost to the Eagles & Steelers in back to back years, but it’s how they’ve looked in those games.  I don’t mind being competitive and losing by a field goal or even a touchdown, but to get their asses kicked by double digits and to look so pathetic on both sides of the ball is alarming. Even if you excuse the fact that both Pittsburgh & Philadelphia are Super Bowl teams, how can you play so poorly at home?

 

This year we have Arizona up for our opener, and this to me is the last straw.  Arizona is NOT Pittsburgh or Philly, so if you come out looking like the same poorly coached and ill prepared team, Jay Gruden should immediately be on the hot seat.  No more excuses.  This is it.  With how hard our schedule is beginning Week 3, we damn well better be 2-0 to start the year.

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8 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

It’s not the fact that they’ve lost to the Eagles & Steelers in back to back years, but it’s how they’ve looked in those games.  I don’t mind being competitive and losing by a field goal or even a touchdown, but to get their asses kicked by double digits and to look so pathetic on both sides of the ball is alarming. Even if you excuse the fact that both Pittsburgh & Philadelphia are Super Bowl teams, how can you play so poorly at home?

 

This year we have Arizona up for our opener, and this to me is the last straw.  Arizona is NOT Pittsburgh or Philly, so if you come out looking like the same poorly coached and ill prepared team, Jay Gruden should immediately be on the hot seat.  No more excuses.  This is it.  With how hard our schedule is beginning Week 3, we damn well better be 2-0 to start the year.

We weren’t even THAT BAD against Philly in week 1 last year though. We were starting a pretty nice drive to try to tie the game until the refs WRONGLY called a fumble (should have been an incomplete pass) which led to the 7 extra free points to the eagles. If not for that horrendous mistake by the refs (they even admitted to being wrong after the fact), we could have very well drove down the field to tie the game. 

 

Also, i dont know why people are just assuming we should be able to beat the cardinals (not you, but I’ve gotten the sense that most here think we should beat them). Larry Fitzgerald is still on the cardinals, and he’s way better than any of our WRs, who at this point are questionmarks as to their potential for this season. David Johnson is a pretty good RB. Bradford is a good QB when healthy. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, samy316 said:

 

It’s not the fact that they’ve lost to the Eagles & Steelers in back to back years, but it’s how they’ve looked in those games.  I don’t mind being competitive and losing by a field goal or even a touchdown, but to get their asses kicked by double digits and to look so pathetic on both sides of the ball is alarming. Even if you excuse the fact that both Pittsburgh & Philadelphia are Super Bowl teams, how can you play so poorly at home?

 

This year we have Arizona up for our opener, and this to me is the last straw.  Arizona is NOT Pittsburgh or Philly, so if you come out looking like the same poorly coached and ill prepared team, Jay Gruden should immediately be on the hot seat.  No more excuses.  This is it.  With how hard our schedule is beginning Week 3, we damn well better be 2-0 to start the year.

Um, we we were a Cousin's pick away from winning that game against the eventual SB winners and only lost by double digits due to a questionable call. That was one of Philly's worst offensive performances of 2017. We were supposed to lose anyway. Against the Steelers (also the favourites), we played a good team and displayed many of the shortcomings we'd show all season. We stunk all the way round in 2014 and were opening up as dogs anyway.  The only ugly loss in an opener was the 2015 loss to a bad Miami team. We were dogs in that one anyway.

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This will be Grudens last year, he is a really bad head coach. I was looking back, watching classic Redskins games from the Gibbs 2.0 and Shanahan era.I look at the TRASH Gibbs had to work with as a roster and he was able to make the playoffs TWICE including a season with Todd Collins as his starter. Look at how horrifically bad the roster was in 2012. These are perfect examples of how good coaches can make the most of what they have to work with. If you would have given Gibbs the roster that Gruden went 9-7 with and got smashed by Green Bay in the playoffs......Gibbs would have won the Super Bowl with that team. 

 

With Cousins, Jackson, Garcone, Reed, and a really good offensive line....that team would have set NFL records. Under Gruden they were mediocre just like the coach. 

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16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think if they lose week 1, the chances of going 10-6 are reduced more than the chances of them winning game 1 and going 6-10.  

 

I'm not sure that made a ton of sense...

 

It makes sense and seems very logical given what we all think we know about the opponents. 

 

But last year's opener is a perfect example of how we really don't know. That was a bad loss no matter how you slice it, but we ultimately lost to the Super Bowl champs despite feeling like we were opening the season against a .500-ish team. 

 

I do agree though...the most likely path to a good season probably includes a win in the opener and, more than likely, a 2-0 start. Anything can happen of course, but that seems like a reasonable stance. 

 

In 2016 however, we started 0-2 (again, the Dallas loss ended up seeming far less embarrassing than it did at the time) and were still entering Thanksgiving at 6-3-1. So, who knows how things will pan out. 

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31 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

It makes sense and seems very logical given what we all think we know about the opponents. 

 

But last year's opener is a perfect example of how we really don't know. That was a bad loss no matter how you slice it, but we ultimately lost to the Super Bowl champs despite feeling like we were opening the season against a .500-ish team. 

 

I do agree though...the most likely path to a good season probably includes a win in the opener and, more than likely, a 2-0 start. Anything can happen of course, but that seems like a reasonable stance. 

 

In 2016 however, we started 0-2 (again, the Dallas loss ended up seeming far less embarrassing than it did at the time) and were still entering Thanksgiving at 6-3-1. So, who knows how things will pan out. 

 

We're not pulling a rabbit out of our ass if we go 1-1 or 0-2 before the Packer game.  We've got GB, @NO, CAR, DAL, with @NYG on the dockett after the first 2 games.  If we're 2-0, and manage a .500 record after that, we can realistically hope for the wild card if we're 3-4 or 4-3, we might still have a chance to compete after that murderous stretch.  If we're 1-1 or God forbid 0-2 before the Packer game, you can kiss any hope of wild card chances down the drain this year, given how hard our schedule is, and the greatness of all the other NFC teams.

 

I'd argue that this year is Jay's most important year to date.  We don't have much room for error to start off bad, and hope for a rebound, when there are 6-7 teams in the NFC that can win 10+ games.  Getting off to a good start is paramount if we hope to have a successful season.  This is one of those years where how we start will set the tone as to how we'll play the remainder of the season.  Go 1-1 or 0-2, and voices of change will get louder.  1-5 or 2-4, and we'll be looking at potential HC candidates by the end of October.

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10 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

We're not pulling a rabbit out of our ass if we go 1-1 or 0-2 before the Packer game.  We've got GB, @NO, CAR, DAL, with @NYG on the dockett after the first 2 games.  If we're 2-0, and manage a .500 record after that, we can realistically hope for the wild card if we're 3-4 or 4-3, we might still have a chance to compete after that murderous stretch.  If we're 1-1 or God forbid 0-2 before the Packer game, you can kiss any hope of wild card chances down the drain this year, given how hard our schedule is, and the greatness of all the other NFC teams.

 

I'd argue that this year is Jay's most important year to date.  We don't have much room for error to start off bad, and hope for a rebound, when there are 6-7 teams in the NFC that can win 10+ games.  Getting off to a good start is paramount if we hope to have a successful season.  This is one of those years where how we start will set the tone as to how we'll play the remainder of the season.  Go 1-1 or 0-2, and your seat is already warming up under a campfire.  1-5 or 2-4, and we'll be looking at potential HC candidates by the end of October.

 

Good points and, again, I agree with that mindset. My point is that you just never know. In 2016 at 0-2 I wouldn't have thought we'd win in NY, in Baltimore, and beat both the Vikings and Packers at home. Things happen. 

 

What if New Orleans doesn't have a defense again and last year was more of a fluke? What if Dallas is a trainwreck or Carolina loses Cam Newton? 

 

To be clear, I think 0-2 ends any playoff hopes too and it's one of the reasons I hated the soft start to the schedule. I'd rather open like we did in 2016 with a game we are expected to lose...but we have recent proof that 0-2 doesn't sink the ship, so I also won't tune out by mid-September if we haven't won yet. 

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33 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

It makes sense and seems very logical given what we all think we know about the opponents. 

 

But last year's opener is a perfect example of how we really don't know. That was a bad loss no matter how you slice it, but we ultimately lost to the Super Bowl champs despite feeling like we were opening the season against a .500-ish team. 

 

I do agree though...the most likely path to a good season probably includes a win in the opener and, more than likely, a 2-0 start. Anything can happen of course, but that seems like a reasonable stance. 

 

In 2016 however, we started 0-2 (again, the Dallas loss ended up seeming far less embarrassing than it did at the time) and were still entering Thanksgiving at 6-3-1. So, who knows how things will pan out. 

But consider this: In 2016, if they hadn't opened slowly and lost to the Cowboys, they might have had the upper-hand in the division race right from the get-go. Also, while we found out that both Dak and Elliot would have very good years, both were rookies in their first game.  The team didn't start the game well, had to come back, and then Kirk had a pick in the red-zone to put the nail in the coffin.

 

Does the 2016 season take on a completely different vibe if they beat Dallas to open the season?  I don't know.  Maybe.  Even if EVERYTHING else plays out exactly as it did, you're now 7-2-1 going into that Thanksgiving game with a chance to essentially put a strangle-hold on the division with a win, given the sweep against Dallas. 

 

Last year, they ended up playing a sloppy game, gave up 2 TD's early, and while they actually came back, they never appeared in rhythm.  They only had 264 net yards, Kirk was sacked 4 times for 40 yards, the rushing attack was "meh" and they gave up net 365 yards.  Sure, the Eagles ended up being very good, but they didn't play a great game either, however they played well enough to win a road division game going away.

 

Again, how different would the season have been IF the 'Skins came out firing on all cylinders and took a 14-0 lead instead of sleep-walking through the first 20 minutes of the game?  

 

I get that the first game is not an end-all-be-all, and if you lose it the season isn't over.

 

But it's important to set the tone, it's important to show that you're prepared, and it's even more important if it's a road game you should be favored to win.  

 

 

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@Voice_of_Reason and @samy316 - I am in no way saying that I want to start 0-2 or look bad again. I love winning the season openers even in crappy years (2011 for example) because for the fans that game seems so much more meaningful. We've been picturing it for 4-5 months. 

 

I am with you guys completely. I'm only saying that if we lose the Cardinals 30-28 it's going to feel like ****. But if we rebound and get to 3-3 at some point and peek at the NFC West standings later in the year to find that they are legit...a close road loss won't feel horrible. 

 

Let's get to 1-0 though...Jay is due!

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1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

To be clear, I think 0-2 ends any playoff hopes too and it's one of the reasons I hated the soft start to the schedule. I'd rather open like we did in 2016 with a game we are expected to lose...but we have recent proof that 0-2 doesn't sink the ship, so I also won't tune out by mid-September if we haven't won yet. 

I would argue that 0-2 did sink the ship.  We haven't made the playoffs when we've gone 0-2.  So, the sink was effectively sunk.  They managed to get back even a few times, but never overcome the loss.

 

Look at it this way, going 10-6 is really 2 games over .500.  If you go .500, you win 8 games.  Win 2 more than half your games, and you've had a really good season.

 

If you go 0-2, you have to go 10-4 the rest of the way to pretty much ensure you are getting into the playoffs.  Unless you are the Cowboys the year Emmit sat out, and have a HOF running back returning in week, 3, going 10-4 is hard under any circumstance, unless you are the Patriots.  Or maybe Steelers most years.  But that's it...

Just now, TD_washingtonredskins said:

@Voice_of_Reason and @samy316 - I am in no way saying that I want to start 0-2 or look bad again. I love winning the season openers even in crappy years (2011 for example) because for the fans that game seems so much more meaningful. We've been picturing it for 4-5 months. 

 

I am with you guys completely. I'm only saying that if we lose the Cardinals 30-28 it's going to feel like ****. But if we rebound and get to 3-3 at some point and peek at the NFC West standings later in the year to find that they are legit...a close road loss won't feel horrible. 

 

Let's get to 1-0 though...Jay is due!

oh, I'm not at all suggesting that you are saying otherwise, nor am I suggesting that the season is over if they lose the opener.

 

I'm just emphasizing that while you can't make the playoffs in September, you can work yourself out of them in September.  

 

I think we are in agreement on most points, just adding further examples...

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Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I would argue that 0-2 did sink the ship.  We haven't made the playoffs when we've gone 0-2.  So, the sink was effectively sunk.  They managed to get back even a few times, but never overcome the loss.

 

Look at it this way, going 10-6 is really 2 games over .500.  If you go .500, you win 8 games.  Win 2 more than half your games, and you've had a really good season.

 

If you go 0-2, you have to go 10-4 the rest of the way to pretty much ensure you are getting into the playoffs.  Unless you are the Cowboys the year Emmit sat out, and have a HOF running back returning in week, 3, going 10-4 is hard under any circumstance, unless you are the Patriots.  Or maybe Steelers most years.  But that's it...

 

They entered a Thanksgiving Day game at 6-3-1 and holding a playoff spot. So, I would agree that more wins there helps...but they rebounded in 2016 to be in contention and only sunk their own ship in late home games against teams they should have beaten (Carolina and New York). 

 

I'm sorry, but if a team is ever sitting with 3 losses out of its first 10 games, I don't really care in what order they got there. They did enough and had control of their own destiny for the final 6. December is where the 2016 Redskins failed in my book. 

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think we are in agreement on most points, just adding further examples...

Yep, enjoying this conversation!

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1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

I'm sorry, but if a team is ever sitting with 3 losses out of its first 10 games, I don't really care in what order they got there. They did enough and had control of their own destiny for the final 6. December is where the 2016 Redskins failed in my book. 

Actually, they failed when they hired Joe Barry, because that move essentially guaranteed a pathetic defense which the offense was unable to overcome.

 

Losing the opener didn't help.  Giving up the drive at the end of the Detroit game didn't help.  Giving up the drives in London against the Bengals didn't help.  And not being able to stop Dallas at all on Thanksgiving was the final nail in the coffin.  After that loss, it was as though the offense knew that whatever they did, the defense was going to give it up, so everybody kinda gave up the last 5 weeks of the season. 

 

It was pathetic.  But, in some ways, understandable.  

 

Barry was the single worst non-head coach hire in the history of the organization.  it was stupid on steroids, and obviously so.  

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I think the offense/kicking game was just as culpable in 2016. They were clearly the better unit, don't get me wrong.

 

But, they also...

 

Did next to nothing virtually all game against Detroit (including 1-2 red zone turnovers to keep points off the board). 

Missed a chippy FG to win the London game

Looked pretty bad in Arizona, vs. Carolina, and vs. New York 

 

The TEAM all had an equal share in 8-7-1...my larger point was that those last 3 games I reference are what sunk the ship. As it was happening, it seemed like we simply needed to win 2 of those 3. As it turned out, even just 1 would have been enough. Arizona and Carolina were worse than us. New York wasn't trying. In all three cases we looked awful and were pretty fortunate to even be in the two of those games that we were (Carolina destroyed us). 

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That opening loss to the Steelers hurt more because it was in prime time to open the season, and early on the 'Skins had a ton of momentum I believe they forced a couple of turnovers.  Wasn't it Josh Norman's first game and forced a fumble on Antonio Brown's reception?  If I remember correctly the defense forced two turnovers inside the Steeler's 20 or 30 yard line and the offense had 3 points to show for it.  The Steelers opened the game looking like garbage but the 'Skins couldn't capitalize. 

 

It took the Steelers about a Quarter of football to get right and look like a football team again, while the 'Skins seemed to get worse as the game went on.  It was embarrassing. 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

That opening loss to the Steelers hurt more because it was in prime time to open the season, and early on the 'Skins had a ton of momentum I believe they forced a couple of turnovers.  Wasn't it Josh Norman's first game and forced a fumble on Antonio Brown's reception?  If I remember correctly the defense forced two turnovers inside the Steeler's 20 or 30 yard line and the offense had 3 points to show for it.  The Steelers opened the game looking like garbage but the 'Skins couldn't capitalize. 

 

It took the Steelers about a Quarter of football to get right and look like a football team again, while the 'Skins seemed to get worse as the game went on.  It was embarrassing. 

 

 

 

Yes, until things spun out of control, the Steelers gave us chances to build a lead in that game. 

 

The bad loss to start THAT season though was Dallas. We weren't going to beat the Steelers so I almost prefer getting that game out of the way. Even when we cut into the lead late and they had stalled a bit, they instantly went on a drive to re-extend their lead to two scores. It's almost like they knew what they needed to do to come out of that game with a road, season-opening win against an inferior opponent. 

 

The Dallas loss was bad simply because they hadn't yet developed into what they were going to be. So, despite that loss being acceptable on paper...they weren't the same team in week 2 that they were once they hit their stride and gained their confidence. And, in fact, they looked pretty very beatable in that game. We could have iced it with a TD but instead threw the end zone INT. 

 

I also consider the season-opener vs. Philly last year the same category. Yes, looking back it's acceptable. But, going into the season it's not like the Eagles were clicking yet. So, that was a winnable game that we let get away against (at the time) a team who hadn't figured out that they were good yet. 

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22 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

 

 

The bad loss to start THAT season though was Dallas. We weren't going to beat the Steelers so I almost prefer getting that game out of the way. Even when we cut into the lead late and they had stalled a bit, they instantly went on a drive to re-extend their lead to two scores. It's almost like they knew what they needed to do to come out of that game with a road, season-opening win against an inferior opponent. 

 

 

Oh yeah......ugh.  That was bad.  Game over if that TD happens.

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14 hours ago, samy316 said:

 

It’s not the fact that they’ve lost to the Eagles & Steelers in back to back years, but it’s how they’ve looked in those games.  I don’t mind being competitive and losing by a field goal or even a touchdown, but to get their asses kicked by double digits and to look so pathetic on both sides of the ball is alarming. Even if you excuse the fact that both Pittsburgh & Philadelphia are Super Bowl teams, how can you play so poorly at home?

 

This year we have Arizona up for our opener, and this to me is the last straw.  Arizona is NOT Pittsburgh or Philly, so if you come out looking like the same poorly coached and ill prepared team, Jay Gruden should immediately be on the hot seat.  No more excuses.  This is it.  With how hard our schedule is beginning Week 3, we damn well better be 2-0 to start the year.

Could not have said it better myself. Add to it the fact of JG's dismal division record, and the fact he has never beat a good team to boot.

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7 minutes ago, dyst said:

His teams never play with urgency or intensity and this preseason was no different. 

Huh? In 3 out of his first 4 preseasons with us, we were 3-1 in preseason. 9-3 in preseason those 3 August’s. Last summer we were 2-2. That’s 11-5 (now 12-8 in August with us now falling to 1-3 this time. 

 

That’s a pretty good preseason record if you ask me ??‍♂️

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26 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Huh? In 3 out of his first 4 preseasons with us, we were 3-1 in preseason. 9-3 in preseason those 3 August’s. Last summer we were 2-2. That’s 11-5 (now 12-8 in August with us now falling to 1-3 this time. 

 

That’s a pretty good preseason record if you ask me ??‍♂️

Never go by preseason scores.  The question is more how the starters played and how much they played and how ready the team is for the opener.

 

so far 0-4.  Next one is in 9 days... 

 

We’ll see.

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