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Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018


Voice_of_Reason

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21 minutes ago, The Hangman- C_Hanburger said:

I don't know how you can't be ready to play. Saw guys trying to make open field tackles by chipping at the legs or throwing a shoulder at the runner's hips instead of squaring up in front and at least slow the runner (yes..they were in front of the runner and chipped as they ran by??). Saw HUGE holes in the Zone coverage (especially the 3rd and 14 completion) where no skin was withing 5 yards at the 1st down marker. The front 7 push died with many of them being stood-up and bending backwards

 

I could care less about the score or preseason and vanilla game plan..but *I* didn't see allot of intensity and effort (as compared to Denver). Looked like night and day between the two clubs (except for AP). Alex was OK for 8 attempts...JUST missed VD on the 3rd down...perfect ball placement..had beat the D and just shy a step- If that was Reed he'd still be running.

 

Maybe Alex is working with allot in practice Reed/Crowder and his timing is off with a slower VD??

 

Maybe I'm blind and the effort was there..I just didn't see it that way.

 

 

 

Yes, I'm surprised there wasn't and isn't more disgust for Vernon Davis instead of most going to general offense or QB. He was terrible, and killed half of the starting drives all by himself. 

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6 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

 

In four seasons with the Redskins, Jay is 3-1 in week 3 of the preseason.

I can understand you being upset, but no need to push it too far away here. Real football starts in November.

100% agree with the general premise, but Jay has used up my good will.  He hasn’t won anything.  Win something, then you get the benefit of the doubt.

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On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, the purpose of this thread is NOT to re-litigate the arguments of the past.  Those arguments have been had.  And no new information is available on Jay Gruden the coach, because the ‘Skins have not played a game since December. Please do not derail the thread with old arguments.  

 

The purpose of this thread is forward looking.  It asks 1 question:

 

How are you going to evaluate the Head Coach in 2018? 

So this thread doesn't get completely out of control, I wanted to remind everybody of the reason I created the thread in the first place.  After the last pre-season game, we got a lot of "Jay Gruden Stinks" types of comments.  

 

Above is the opening lines of the thread.  

 

Please, please, please let's not turn this into a "I love Jay, he's just a victim of his circumstances" vs. a "Jay's the wrong Gruden, he's a dope" thread, at least not yet.  

 

I'm sure that once we get into the season, we're going to have a lot of noise in here, but the purpose is to say what we're looking for, and then whether he accomplishes it or not.  

 

I'm going reference my evaluation criteria from the OP below, with some commentary with what we know so far:

 

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

Put another way, at the end of the season, what has Gruden had to have accomplished in order to be retained for 2019?  

 

Here are my answers:

1.       The opener and everything that goes into it.  So far, Jay is 0-4 in openers, and they haven’t really been pretty.  He’s faced questions about how much he plays his starters in the pre-season, and why the team doesn’t seem to be ready week 1, but is typically ready weeks 2 and 3.

 

My first evaluation criteria was essentially training camp, pre-season and the opener.  So far we know that there weren't many changes to training camp, save 1 tough practice that we hadn't seen before. The starters haven't gotten more work. Alex Smith, new QB, had 8 pass attempts, didn't look great, and was out in the 2nd quarter.  Kirk was out early when he was here, and the offense started slowly every year.

 

If that happens again, I'm going to fail Gruden on this criteria.  He had the opportunity to change things, and hasn't.  

 

So far, incomplete.  But Week 1 is looming, and that's going to be a BIG test.  Arizona is a team they should beat.  New coach, new QB, re-building team.  

 

If they lose, that's really bad.  If the offense struggles, that's also really bad. 

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

2.       Improved run game.  They’ve made a HUGE emphasis about getting new Running backs, and improving the run game.  Are they actually able to accomplish that?  Or are they going to average <2 yards on first down carries?  I believe (and have believed) that this has been a combination of personnel and scheme, so I’m looking for improvement.

Well, they drafted Guice, who immediately got hurt, and at least realized that Perine and Kelley weren't going to cut it.  AP looked pretty good in pre-season work.  So there are positive signs here.  So far this is trending in the right direction.  

 

However, if Gruden lines up anybody other than AP as the starter in Arizona, I think that could be a fire-able offense on the sidelines after the first play is run.  (Except if it's CT, and they open throwing the ball, and want their pass-catching RB in the game.  Then it's fine.)  

 

But if he trots out Kelley/Perine as the starter, that's a huge mistake.   

 

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

3.       End of half/game situations.  These situations have been poor for the Redskins for the last 4 years.  I’m looking to see the 2 minute offense step up, and the 2 minute defense get better and not just allow teams to walk right down the field and score.   

Pre-season hasn't shown any improvement.  But we'll see in real games.  

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

4.       Don’t blown leads. ...

No way to judge, pre-season isn't about winning, unless you're Steve Spurrier in Osaka.  Remember Osaka!

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

5.       This is somewhat related to #4, but when they get a lead, I want to see them put opponents away so we’re not white-knuckling and hoping we can get a stop.  ...

Same comment as above.  

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

6.       No duds.  In each of the last 3 years, at the end of the year, the team has had a game to stay in or advance their playoff position and has laid a complete egg.  2015 it was the Monday Night game against a pretty bad Dallas team.  2016 it was Arizona, Carolina, and New York Giants.  2017, with their season on life support, they got BLOWN OUT in Dallas by an average Cowboys team.  That has to stop.  Again, some say that’s been on the QB in the past, and if it stops happening, then happy to blame Kirk for anything, including the Kennedy assassination.  

Not that it matters a lot, but pre-season game 3 was a dud.  Don't know why. It's pre-season, so it doesn't matter.  However when the starters were out there,they weren't very good, except for AP and some of the run-blocking.  Which is positive.  However everything else was a big fat "blah"

 

On 4/4/2018 at 4:57 PM, Voice_of_Reason said:

7.      Record.  At the end of the day, this is a bottom line business, and the team has to win.  Context is everything, but this is year 5 of Jay/Allen, and they need to win. Context is everything, so I’ll be looking hard at the things above as well as the record…
 

Clearly no way to judge yet.  

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Not that it matters a lot, but pre-season game 3 was a dud.  Don't know why. It's pre-season, so it doesn't matter.  However when the starters were out there,they weren't very good, except for AP and some of the run-blocking.  Which is positive.  However everything else was a big fat "blah"

 

I don't even think it was that horrid. It was just 1 key drop here, 1 key route fail there, 1 key pocket composure fail and tipped pass here, etc. 

 

Just wasn't sharp, but I still seriously doubt any of the pass plays were plays that are in Jay's playbook. So it's like the players were just trying to lip-sync to a song they really didn't bother to fully learn. 

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3 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Alex isn't that kind of guy, either.

Where is London Fletcher when you need em...I can't name a player that has taken up that mantle. Trent comes to mind but he doesn't take the role on O. Nobody on D comes to mind..Kerrigan is Trent on the other side. A player but not a general...

 

We need a London as much as Riggo 2.0

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5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

But if you’re 2-6 heading into November because you aren’t prepared to start the season, does it matter?

 

with one exception in 2015, Jay’s teams have started and finished slowly.  Last years wins after they were eliminated don’t count as a strong finish, and they lost the final meaningless game anyway.

 

when you have that fact pattern, it’s justifiable to question how the team is prepared for the season.  

 

However, you can’t jusge anything until after the real games start. 

 

But I can say I’m somewhat concerned Smith got 8 pass attempts and didn’t even finish out the first half.  That’s concerning given history of starting slow in the regular season.

 

It's been a common denomiator those last year that we did started slow. I'm not gonna argue that.

And I pretty agree with what you said, my point is more than a preseason game is not gonna tell us how the season will unfold by any means.

 

But yes, the fact that Alex Smith barely played is somehow weird and a bit concerning. And the only reason I can find here, is that Gruden is being (too?) cautious with his star players and try not to hurt them in meaningless. After last year and Giuce in the first game, it's hard to blame him,

 

Still, it's not that wise to rest them too long as they'll get rusty and will need some time to get up to speed. But our first two games are easily manageable even with rusted players, so there's still that.

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Gruden seems like he's still shell shocked by the injuries suffered last year and is playing it super conservatively. Didn't help that we lost Guice in the first preseason game to boot. I can understand his fear, but this is football, guys get hurt. You can't play or coach this game afraid.

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I have been a pretty consistent supporter of Jay right from the begining. I think he is the right coach for this team - or at least to this point. 

 

However, if this team comes out in week one and plays like they did Friday, again - it will be hard for me to continue that support. That does not necessarily mean a win. It also does not mean a win is enough either. Win or lose i want to see every player on the field play like they care. Play with some passion! Of course need to let the season play out as a flat opener and then ripping off a 10-6 record overall anyway would help. 

 

I am really tired of the team coming out flat in game one every year. I stated so early in this thread but seeing (actually hearing since i did not watch much of the game but instead listened on Sirius), them play so lethargic yet again is more than irritating. Need to come out with some fire for once!!  

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I'm adding an evaluation criteria, or at least an addendum to my Running Game evaluation criteria:  they cannot run 60% of the time on 1st down for less than 2 yards, which is about what they've done the last 4 years.  If I'm able to predict the first down run plays for 2 yards this year, that's an epic, 5 year consistent fail job on Jay as the HC, OC, and Play Caller. And please nobody argue with me that he's not the OC.  It's his offense, and while he might not have the title (Cavanaugh does), he's the defacto OC.  

 

14 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

I have been a pretty consistent supporter of Jay right from the begining. I think he is the right coach for this team - or at least to this point. 

 

However, if this team come out in week one and plays like they did Friday, again - it will be hard for continue that support. That does not necessarily mean a win. It also does not mean a win is enough either. Win or lose i want to see every player on the field play like they care. Play with some passion! Of course need to let the season play out as a flat opener and then ripping off a 10-6 record overall anyway would help. 

 

I am really tired of the team coming out flat in game one every year. I stated so early in this thread but seeing (actually hearing since i did not watch much of the game but instead listened on Sirius), them play so lethargic yet again is more than irritating. Need to come out with some fire for once!!  

I think that week 1 is a must win, and I think it's a must winby more than kicking a late FG to win by 1 after a sloppy game. Or after blowing an early lead and coming back late to win... 

 

The Cardinal's have a new HC, a new QB, and a rebuilding team.  They weren't that good on defense last year.  The Rerskins are on the 5th year under Jay Gruden, have what looks like a talented roster, at least in parts, have a proven QB (at least in the regular season).

 

This is a game they should win.  If they let Bradford and company run up and down the field on them, or they come out sluggish offensively, that's on the Redskins, and particularly on Jay and the coaching staff.

 

At the end of the day,this is a results based business.  I remind folks that they made not 1 meaningful coaching change or training staff change in the off-season, which indicates that they think they have the right team in place to win.  

 

If they go out against Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers and play a great game and lose, I can understand that.  That happens.  

 

But you've got to beat the Cardinal's in the opener.  

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54 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm adding an evaluation criteria, or at least an addendum to my Running Game evaluation criteria:  they cannot run 60% of the time on 1st down for less than 2 yards, which is about what they've done the last 4 years.  If I'm able to predict the first down run plays for 2 yards this year, that's an epic, 5 year consistent fail job on Jay as the HC, OC, and Play Caller. And please nobody argue with me that he's not the OC.  It's his offense, and while he might not have the title (Cavanaugh does), he's the defacto OC.  

 

I think that week 1 is a must win, and I think it's a must winby more than kicking a late FG to win by 1 after a sloppy game. Or after blowing an early lead and coming back late to win... 

 

The Cardinal's have a new HC, a new QB, and a rebuilding team.  They weren't that good on defense last year.  The Rerskins are on the 5th year under Jay Gruden, have what looks like a talented roster, at least in parts, have a proven QB (at least in the regular season).

 

This is a game they should win.  If they let Bradford and company run up and down the field on them, or they come out sluggish offensively, that's on the Redskins, and particularly on Jay and the coaching staff.

 

At the end of the day,this is a results based business.  I remind folks that they made not 1 meaningful coaching change or training staff change in the off-season, which indicates that they think they have the right team in place to win.  

 

If they go out against Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers and play a great game and lose, I can understand that.  That happens.  

 

But you've got to beat the Cardinal's in the opener.  

 

And we have a new QB and many players coming off injury and several rookies expected to make a contribution. Also, like it or not winning on the road is a tough task. If this were at home I would agree, a win period. We really do not know what AZ is yet. Last year early in the season a loss to philly looked bad but they won the SB (stupid ****ers!, ok got that out.) I win against Oakland looked like a great win. In the end they were an average to below average team. 

 

If the team comes out with energy and fire and just gets beat I will not be as hard on them. I will not be happy - lest we go down that path. But if they come out flat - and yes win by a FG but played like crap I will not be happy. They need to come out game one and play with some passion - like they give a ****. 

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28 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

And we have a new QB and many players coming off injury and several rookies expected to make a contribution. Also, like it or not winning on the road is a tough task. If this were at home I would agree, a win period. We really do not know what AZ is yet. Last year early in the season a loss to philly looked bad but they won the SB (stupid ****ers!, ok got that out.) I win against Oakland looked like a great win. In the end they were an average to below average team. 

 

If the team comes out with energy and fire and just gets beat I will not be as hard on them. I will not be happy - lest we go down that path. But if they come out flat - and yes win by a FG but played like crap I will not be happy. They need to come out game one and play with some passion - like they give a ****. 

The new QB was given 8 pass attempts in the 3rd preseason game.  If they’re rusty, that’s 100% on Jay.  

 

He had 6 months to get this team ready.  It’s put up or shut up time.  In year 5 you have to win this game.  

 

No no more excuses.  The eagles won the SB after losing their MVP candidate QB, HOf Lt, starting RB, and several others.  

 

I’m hooeful he can do it.  But it’s time to show it.

 

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I agree, I like Jay too but his ass is on the line this year, the level of accountability needs to go up exponentially this season.

 

You knew you had weaknesses at RB, you knew you had paper mache at WR and TE and you knew we haven't been able to run the ball effectively since 2013.

 

No more excuses.

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1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The new QB was given 8 pass attempts in the 3rd preseason game.  If they’re rusty, that’s 100% on Jay.  

 

He had 6 months to get this team ready.  It’s put up or shut up time.  In year 5 you have to win this game.  

 

No no more excuses.  The eagles won the SB after losing their MVP candidate QB, HOf Lt, starting RB, and several others.  

 

I’m hooeful he can do it.  But it’s time to show it.

 

 

You can say the same about AZ. Bradford is not a rookie QB. In fact he has had more teams than Alex and been reasonably successful. What's interesting is that I am mostly agreeing with you but instead of seeing that you keep hammering the "win or **** him" thing. I am not there, will not be there no matter what. You know enough about football to know that it is always more nuanced than that, unless you have already made up your mind. In that case the game makes no difference either way. 

 

 

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Just now, goskins10 said:

 

You can say the same about AZ. Bradford is not a rookie QB. In fact he has had more teams than Alex and been reasonably successful. What's interesting is that I am mostly agreeing with you but instead of seeing that you keep hammering the "win or **** him" thing. I am not there, will not be there no matter what. You know enough about football to know that it is always more nuanced than that, unless you have already made up your mind. In that case the game makes no difference either way. 

 

 

Oh I totally see that you’re agreeing for the most part and I appreciate that. 

 

I just think in year 5 you should be able to win an opener.  And while Arizona is an nfl team, it’s not the patriots or Steelers.  It’s a winnable game, and the entire focus of the off season should be winning the opener.

 

if the team is t prepared, that’s a big issue.

 

if they lose the opener and the. go 6-2, I also wish t care that much, honestly.  

 

But rhe easiest way to get to 6-2 would be to beat Arizona.

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I agree I don't ever want to hear him say they werent ready to play again.  Get beat, don't get caught with your pants down.  Schedule is too hard as is competition for wild card, we lose opener, this isn't a playoff team.  His seat should be melting if they lose to Arizona.

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3 minutes ago, ShaunAlexanderSkinsYears said:

If we lose the opener against the cardinals Jay has to go. They are bad this year and Jay has no excuses this time.

 

 He should also go if he starts Rob Kelley over AP. First game of the season sets the tone and I don't remember an opener under Jay that was even close.  

 

 

I wouldn't sleep on Arizona... David Johnson was viewed as one of the best RBs in the league before he got hurt.  Bradford has always been a good QB when healthy, Larry Fitz is a HOF player if he's on a better team, and the defense has forced 16 fumbles in 3 games.  

 

I don't completely disagree with you that the first game snoozers are a problem, but I don't think you fire Gruden after week 1... We would have to be in shambles to consider an in-season coaching change, and I frankly don't think we're that bad.  

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48 minutes ago, ShaunAlexanderSkinsYears said:

If we lose the opener against the cardinals Jay has to go. They are bad this year and Jay has no excuses this time.

 

 He should also go if he starts Rob Kelley over AP. First game of the season sets the tone and I don't remember an opener under Jay that was even close.  

 

No it doesnt.  

 

If they lose, they should just pack it up for the season, the tone has been set? 

 

If your team is meh, your season will be meh, whether you win the first one or not.  

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30 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

No it doesnt.  

 

If they lose, they should just pack it up for the season, the tone has been set? 

 

If your team is meh, your season will be meh, whether you win the first one or not.  

 

Jay has had 5 years to produce a team that is not meh.

 

Jon Grudens Brother is not qualified to be a head coach in the NFL. I believe if he is fired after he loses to the Cardinals in week 1 that he will never secure another head coaching job in the NFL. It's unfortunate that our once glorious franchise can only attract a Canadian Football League caliber head coach. 

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6 minutes ago, ShaunAlexanderSkinsYears said:

 

Jay has had 5 years to produce a team that is not meh.

 

Jon Grudens Brother is not qualified to be a head coach in the NFL. I believe if he is fired after he loses to the Cardinals in week 1 that he will never secure another head coaching job in the NFL. It's unfortunate that our once glorious franchise can only attract a Canadian Football League caliber head coach. 

 

That's absolutely true, I just dont put this extra emphasis on game 1. 

 

They havent won the 12th game of the year either in Gruden's tenure.  They really need to do something about that.  

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25 minutes ago, ShaunAlexanderSkinsYears said:

 

Jay has had 5 years to produce a team that is not meh.

 

Jon Grudens Brother is not qualified to be a head coach in the NFL. I believe if he is fired after he loses to the Cardinals in week 1 that he will never secure another head coaching job in the NFL. It's unfortunate that our once glorious franchise can only attract a Canadian Football League caliber head coach. 

Isn’t this his 5th year though? So, wouldn’t he have had only 4 full years to produce a team that is not “meh”, instead of 5 (since we can’t say with FULL certainty that he has or has not produced a meh team this year yet)? 

 

 

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I'm not too concerned about week 1 specifically. Yes, there seems to be a trend and yes the optics of openers carry more weight. But, as you guys have mentioned, it's the ultimate record this season that should be evaluated. 

 

If they win week 1, they could still go 6-10. Will it matter that they won week 1? The inverse is just as possible too. 

 

I will admit though, that this year, it appears that winning one or both of the first two is the most likely path to playing meaningful football late in the year. It's tough to picture losses to Arizona and Indy AND a competitive record in November. 

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1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

That's absolutely true, I just dont put this extra emphasis on game 1. 

 

They havent won the 12th game of the year either in Gruden's tenure.  They really need to do something about that.  

Did you actually go back and do the math to see they hadn't won week 12?  If so, I tip my hat to you good sir...

 

3 hours ago, ShaunAlexanderSkinsYears said:

If we lose the opener against the cardinals Jay has to go. They are bad this year and Jay has no excuses this time.

 

 He should also go if he starts Rob Kelley over AP. First game of the season sets the tone and I don't remember an opener under Jay that was even close.  

I might be as big a critic of Gruden as there is on the board, and even I don't think that's true. 

 

However, if they sleep-walk through the first couple weeks and lose to Green Bay, I would be in favor of a discussion of firing Gruden during the bye week.  At 0-3, you're probably done anyway.  

 

I did make the point about Rob Kelley vs. AP though.  I said it should be an in-game immediate firing.  I also said that if they do that, the entire coaching staff should go to Pear Vision Optometry to get their eyes checked.  It's hyperbole, but I hope to God that they don't trot Kelley out there in week 1 and try and sell he's the better option than AP.  

 

1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

I'm not too concerned about week 1 specifically. Yes, there seems to be a trend and yes the optics of openers carry more weight. But, as you guys have mentioned, it's the ultimate record this season that should be evaluated. 

 

If they win week 1, they could still go 6-10. Will it matter that they won week 1? The inverse is just as possible too. 

 

I will admit though, that this year, it appears that winning one or both of the first two is the most likely path to playing meaningful football late in the year. It's tough to picture losses to Arizona and Indy AND a competitive record in November. 

I think if they lose week 1, the chances of going 10-6 are reduced more than the chances of them winning game 1 and going 6-10.  

 

I'm not sure that made a ton of sense...

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