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Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018


Voice_of_Reason

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Lets face it, nothing matters for Gruden this season but making the playoffs.  If he doesnt make it, hes canned.  Hes got to be, with 1 in 5 seasons.  Heck, almost all coaches with 1 in 4 seasons would be, but somehow he got himself another shot, so hes GOT to take it.  Anything else is meaningless in evaluating him this year.

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27 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Lets face it, nothing matters for Gruden this season but making the playoffs.  If he doesnt make it, hes canned.  Hes got to be, with 1 in 5 seasons.  Heck, almost all coaches with 1 in 4 seasons would be, but somehow he got himself another shot, so hes GOT to take it.  Anything else is meaningless in evaluating him this year.

 

Probably not that simple. F/O has to also assess what HC candidates may be better, and how well the team competed in their losses. We should easily see if Jay loses the team. I don't expect it. 

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16 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Lets face it, nothing matters for Gruden this season but making the playoffs.  If he doesnt make it, hes canned.  Hes got to be, with 1 in 5 seasons.  Heck, almost all coaches with 1 in 4 seasons would be, but somehow he got himself another shot, so hes GOT to take it.  Anything else is meaningless in evaluating him this year.

I would cut Gruden some slack for 2014 given the RG3 fiasco and give him credit for righting the QB ship against FO opposition. 2015= NFC Champs, 2016 almost identical record to 2015 with a tie instead of a win (that last Giants game was an embarrassment of over confidence. I hope he learned from THAT). 2017 was injury riddled and ANOTHER QB controversy and OL decimation. We SHOULD have lost allot more games

 

Why people can't cut the guy some slack is beyond me....that and WHO would replace him???

 

I agree..his starting SLOW is getting to me. He better change that in 2018.

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I like Jay, I'd keep him.  But geez, I was just going through USA Today just now, he's the #5 head coach to them who is likely to get fired.  Jay seems to be in a lot of those type of lists.  Seems like the typical national view point is the Redskins are going to have a down year and it will spell the end of him.  I hope not.  I don't think I've ever been so on the fence as for how a season could go, wouldn't shock me if they have a really good one or mediocre or bad season.  I've gone if I recall 10-6 as to my predictions the last two years -- but I really have no feel for how to call this season.

 

I know some of the beat guys (especially Finlay) claim that internally in that front office, they think they have a really good roster and have a good shot to win the division.   If so, I think the high expectations I presume would spell doom for Jay if they have a so so or down year.

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4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I like Jay, I'd keep him.  But geez, I was just going through USA Today just now, he's the #5 head coach to them who is likely to get fired.  Jay seems to be in a lot of those type of lists.

 

That was also true last year. I wonder if these lists are based on actual facts and Jay's skills or more based on Snyder's history of wiping everything out every now and then.

I suspect it's mostly the latter.

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Gruden would be phenomenal as an OC working under a complete head coach who would give him relative autonomy with his unit, save for demanding balance in the attack (i.e., don't abandon the run). I would never have entrusted with the HC reigns at Ashburn. I do like him, though, and I hope he's able to land an OC gig after his stint with our team is over.

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4 hours ago, skinzplay said:

Gruden would be phenomenal as an OC working under a complete head coach who would give him relative autonomy with his unit, save for demanding balance in the attack (i.e., don't abandon the run). I would never have entrusted with the HC reigns at Ashburn. I do like him, though, and I hope he's able to land an OC gig after his stint with our team is over.

OC between the 20 yard lines, but once we get to the redzone, tuen the playcalling over to another coach who is actually good at that part of it. 

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8 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

 

That was also true last year. I wonder if these lists are based on actual facts and Jay's skills or more based on Snyder's history of wiping everything out every now and then.

I suspect it's mostly the latter.

 

I suspect the same, except beat guys seems to be in on it too.  The rap locally from some like Finlay is that internally they are so smitten by the roster that if they don't have a big season then they under achieved.  So there might be something to the playoffs or bust drill. 

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9 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Very silly conclusion on both parts. 

Not as silly as our effort against the Giants to end the season.  Pathetic.  

 

Pretty safe to say that Jay didn't get max effort out of our guys to begin the season or down the stretch last year.  Maybe your version of "losing the team" is a bit more literal than mine. 

 

Also wanted to add that we have looked like unprepared **** in the preseason.  Again.

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On 9/2/2018 at 6:13 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

I like this. Sense of urgency from the get go. 

 

 Mike and 13 others liked

Jay Gruden was asked if he thinks the #Redskins are under the radar. His response was interesting

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I like hearing this.  It's my #1 evaluation criteria of him this year.  :)  I hope he gets a passing grade.

 

Way back, Kevin brought up something, if the 'Skins start 0-3, do they make a coaching change in the bye week.  The argument for would be that Jay knew he had to win, the FO believes they have a team ready to win, and at that point, you've probably sunk the season anyway. So why not?

 

Cooley said no, because he likes Jay and Jay is his friend. That was his actual answer. Talk about unbiased opinion...  

 

I'm not sure if they would or would not, but I gotta think Snyder, who has shown EXTRAORDINARY patience, at least for him, over the past 8 years, is only going to be able to hold his water for so long.  If the team starts 0-3, 0-4 or something like that... It wouldn't be pretty.

 

I don't think they will start 0-3.  I think they're going to start 1-2, lose the opener, beat the Colts at home, and then lose to Green Bay.  Leaving us with not really knowing anything more about the team than we did before the season started.  I hope I'm wrong and they are 2-1 or better. 

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8 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I like hearing this.  It's my #1 evaluation criteria of him this year.  :)  I hope he gets a passing grade.

 

Way back, Kevin brought up something, if the 'Skins start 0-3, do they make a coaching change in the bye week.  The argument for would be that Jay knew he had to win, the FO believes they have a team ready to win, and at that point, you've probably sunk the season anyway. So why not?

 

Cooley said no, because he likes Jay and Jay is his friend. That was his actual answer. Talk about unbiased opinion...  

 

I'm not sure if they would or would not, but I gotta think Snyder, who has shown EXTRAORDINARY patience, at least for him, over the past 8 years, is only going to be able to hold his water for so long.  If the team starts 0-3, 0-4 or something like that... It wouldn't be pretty.

 

I don't think they will start 0-3.  I think they're going to start 1-2, lose the opener, beat the Colts at home, and then lose to Green Bay.  Leaving us with not really knowing anything more about the team than we did before the season started.  I hope I'm wrong and they are 2-1 or better. 

 

I haven't heard any of this by any of the FO horses mouths directly in interviews but judging by what beat guys say they heard what's being said behind the scenes-- there are a lot of self congratulations in that front office and its been communicated to Dan that they rocked this off season and have a killer roster. Among other things, Alex will be a noctiable upgrade.  Finlay said they even scoff at the sneak into the playoffs rap because they think they have the roster to win the division.

 

If all of that is true, Jay is really on the spot.  I don't think Jay has helped himself either as for playing any of it down especially as to how he's hyped Alex Smith.   So with that backdrop, while I am not sure if Jay would get canned after a slow start, I don't think he survives a mediocre or less season.  

 

Personally, I have a real hard time predicting this team.  Depending on the week, I am optimistic, pessimistic, or somewhere in between.   I don't think the front office does what it takes really to go for the kill.  I think you got a strong Kyle Smith and Jay Gruden as evaluators but that's diminished IMO by I gather Santos and Bruce running pro personnel weakly.  

 

Chris Russell who has been on fire for about 2 years now as to the FO, he had the Scot story first, the Doug story, etc -- said this off season Jay was unhappy with Bruce's approach to FA, he also said the other day that Doug has very little power in the FO and is more of a public relations guy than anything else (not that I care about that but interesting)

 

My main reasons to be optimistic is if Reed, Thompson, Peterson stay health and thrive and if they do I expect a good season maybe very good.  If not, I don't think so.  I am not one of those look at 2017 season guys where it can only go up from there considering the injuries -- because to me the other teams upgraded (especially the Giants who had almost as many injuries as we did last year and now have a likely superstar at RB), looks like we got a tough schedule again, and I don't buy that teams coming off injuries are less likely to be injured again -- I think its likely they aren't as injured but it wouldn't shock me if the team is again among the most injured teams in the league.   Either narrative seems to me plausible.   

 

So for me -- luck is a big factor this year.  And I think its a function of a team whose stars on offense are relatively brittle -- it makes the Redskins more a "what if" team than most.  I'd feel the same way for example if lets say the E. Elliot was often injured and lets say Beckham was hurt often as if last season was the norm for him, etc.  Jordan Reed for example I've noticed in national sports shows has almost become the poster child for the NFL as for a player who is hurt.    Heck a guy I work with is a major Dolphins fan, he jokes with me how many games does Reed have in him this year, 2-3?  I love Jordan Reed the player -- but his injury history is turning into a punch line that goes beyond the DMV.

 

Reed needs to turn that narrative around this year -- I think he's the key to the season.  I like Richardson and Doctson more than most but both are somewhat wildcards.    Reed is the one bonafide starter on offense that IMO can freak out defensive coordinators.  And maybe Peterson still has it, Thompson as to making the running game a force.  But the passing game needs one IMO surefire killer player -- Reed would be that guy. 

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We've had 4 years of Gruden. We pretty much know who he is at this point. He'll never be married to running the ball,  he can't manage the game/clock, he's too loose w/ the players, he runs a soft training camp, team starts slow, attention to detail isn't his strong point. Ok he can design pass plays, big deal so can a  lot of guys. I just think after this year I've seen enough. 

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44 minutes ago, Alexa said:

We've had 4 years of Gruden. We pretty much know who he is at this point. He'll never be married to running the ball,  he can't manage the game/clock, he's too loose w/ the players, he runs a soft training camp, team starts slow, attention to detail isn't his strong point. Ok he can design pass plays, big deal so can a  lot of guys. I just think after this year I've seen enough. 

 

Despite my liking the guy as a person, yours was a solid assessment. He doesn't seem to correct his mistakes.

Norv Turner was a nice guy who could design pass plays but his teams were always the same too. Mediocre.

 

(Sigh...)

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14 minutes ago, Chachie said:

 

Despite my liking the guy as a person, yours was a solid assessment. He doesn't seem to correct his mistakes.

Norv Turner was a nice guy who could design pass plays but his teams were always the same too. Mediocre.

 

(Sigh...)

 

I know it has been a while, but as mediocre as Gruden has been, I've seen flashes of "good."  I never saw any flashes with Norval.  He consistently snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  There was always one good offensive, scripted drive, and then it was like, "Oh, there are really 55 minutes left in this game?"  While this certainly goes into the category of damning with faint praise, I've never watched Gruden and felt that he was on Norv's level of consistent mediocrity/borderline incompetence.

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Again, I think the FO talent guys and a lot of ES folks are overvaluing our roster.  I expect the defensive strides made upfront to be offset by our continuing struggles at the safety position, as well as a decline in overall talent at DB.  Our poor tackling and lack of a speed rusher will continue to be an issue.

 

I have more optimism on offense, but a lot of pieces have to fall right.  ASmith, AP, Reed, Richardson, Crowder, CThompson, Doctson.  If most of those guys play better than advertised, I think we have the opportunity to put some points up.  

 

There's just been absolutely zero things I have seen in the preseason to make me think we won't see more of the same old stuff.  Not one drive.  Nothing.  Same zombie like effort.  Same results.  

 

I really like Jay.  Would be awesome if he could get us over the hump.  

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There is a good column today by Jerry Brewer in the Washington Post and he addresses Gruden and how critical this year is for him.  A lot of times the Washington Post is not very good but I think Brewer gets it that 50% of fans like Gruden and 50% of fans think the head coach is a failure.  Check out the article if you have time.

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1 hour ago, Chachie said:

 

Despite my liking the guy as a person, yours was a solid assessment. He doesn't seem to correct his mistakes.

Norv Turner was a nice guy who could design pass plays but his teams were always the same too. Mediocre.

 

(Sigh...)

(I can't believe I'm going to do this, deep breath)

 

There's actually a huge difference between Jay and Norv as offensive coordinators.  One is regarded as one of the best OCs of the past 30 years, the other is not.  Norv is an offensive genius.  He was the architect behind the Cowboys offense in the late 80's and early 90's.  He has been in numerous places, and has been successful in all of them. His offense has evolved with the times, and he's been one of the folks leading the evolution at the NFL level, not one of the followers. The worst thing you could do to Norv the OC is make Norv the HC.  He is so well respected that he just landed the Carolina OC job, and he introduced Troy Aikman for the HOF. 

 

Jay might be a great passing game coordinator.  But he's not a great OC. Questionable play calling, never had a consistent running game. He's a good OC.  Not great, and certainly not generationally good like Turner. 

 

Neither have achieved the same level of success as a HC as they have had as an OC.  Tthere's still time for Jay.  We'll see.  However, the book is written for Norv.  He's a "meh" head coach at best, and I'd argue worse than that.  He took Marty's 14-2 Chargers team and turned them into a 10-6 team in 1 year...

 

 

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