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Jay Gruden: Buy, Sell Or HOLD: 2017 edition


SWFLSkins

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2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

When talking about new coach, I always say the same thing: don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions.

 

You fire Gruden, fine. But who are you going to get that's better? An up and coming assistant is, realistic best case scenario, another Gruden except it will take 2-3 years for him to learn and get to that point and we'd lose a lot of games along the way. You're more likely to get Josh McDaniels than Bill Bellicheck.

 

You could go the retread route, but again, you're talking about getting a guy who was previously fired. I'd look at Schwartz in Philly as his teams in Detroit were competitive, but they were always extremely undisciplined.

 

 

I wouldn't underestimate how many coaches would rather be a Coordinator than actually be the head coach of the Skins. Let's look at McDaniels. He was a flame out and is now back in NE. Do you think he'd take a Washington HC job? Seriously. Would Snyder pay big $ for him? No. Would McDaniels have full autonomy over the roster? No. Could he be fired at any moment in a fairly publicly disrespectful way? Yep.

 

I remember when they hired Jay. I was not excited in the least, but it at least it seemed like he was eyes wide open on what this job was. He knows working around the ownership is prerequisite. 

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Unfortunately, I think our best chance to get to the next level left and went to L.A. to coach the Rams.  If we had been able to keep him on as O coordinator for a few more years, we could have had the chance to smoothly transition from Gruden to McVay without blowing everything up..  As it was, I think he was too young and our front office and fanbase would have turned on him too quickly (not given him room to grow before firing him).

 

So we were in a tough spot.  keep the safer option, who may be topped out in terms of how far he can take us? or gamble on the possibility of a young head coach who has the potential to be great in the future.  From a franchise standpoint, we made the right call, but we might have hit Gruden's peak and sacrificed the future to maintain the present.  Its annoying because even if McVay ends up being great, I'm convinced he would NOT have been great if he stayed here.  Lose/lose situation for us.

 

Going forward, the best method should be to continue promoting from within to avoid a total loss of continuity, but I fear it's extremely unlikely that we'll find another up and coming talent on par with McVay anytime in the near future.  Our current regime does not have an heir apparent.

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9 hours ago, SWFLSkins said:

 

Outplayed, clearly. Never said to myself, wow, Jay really won this game even though team was outmatched. 

He did a really good job in the Rams game.  I'll give him that.

 

 

15 hours ago, Reaper Skins said:

Unfortunately, I think our best chance to get to the next level left and went to L.A. to coach the Rams.  If we had been able to keep him on as O coordinator for a few more years, we could have had the chance to smoothly transition from Gruden to McVay without blowing everything up..  As it was, I think he was too young and our front office and fanbase would have turned on him too quickly (not given him room to grow before firing him).

 

So we were in a tough spot.  keep the safer option, who may be topped out in terms of how far he can take us? or gamble on the possibility of a young head coach who has the potential to be great in the future.  From a franchise standpoint, we made the right call, but we might have hit Gruden's peak and sacrificed the future to maintain the present.  Its annoying because even if McVay ends up being great, I'm convinced he would NOT have been great if he stayed here.  Lose/lose situation for us.

 

Going forward, the best method should be to continue promoting from within to avoid a total loss of continuity, but I fear it's extremely unlikely that we'll find another up and coming talent on par with McVay anytime in the near future.  Our current regime does not have an heir apparent.

There was never a thought of getting rid of captain Yuk Yuk Yuk, who's an Allan Alley.  Allen doesn't fire friends.

 

And to be fair, Jay didn't really deserve to be fired.  He didn't deserve to be extended either.  

 

I woukd have jettosoned him in the locker room after the Giants game and promoted McVay.  And I posted as much as well.  But that would have been pretty radical. I wouldn't have expected any NFL team to actually do it. 

 

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 This team is in dire need for a good OC. Jay can't just throw the responsibility of play calling on his back and plow along. Even if Callahan or Cavanaugh are doing it, its not working.

Jay has to find a good OC and give him the keys. The struggling in 2 minute offenses are hurting this team, and that's a critical point in games; it can give an opponent a ton of momentum if they succeed against us in a 2 minute drill, offensively or defensively.

 

The Cowboys game should be a nationally televised game, so instead of getting emotionally in the game, I'm gonna really try to look at different aspects of whats going on at the line, and how/if Jay adjusts to it. But he HAS to get his issues with 2 minute stuff really really figured out, and fast, if he wants to get anywhere; coaching is 60 minutes, not 56.

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39 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He did a really good job in the Rams game.  I'll give him that.

 

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=skins+vs+rams&rlz=1C1AFAB_enUS449US449&oq=skins+vs.+rams&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l4.6555j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sh=0

 

Last drive tied, Grant scores still had 1;49 left on the clock, many teams could put up a final drive that could have won it. Skins were facing Goff and Sean McVay's Rams second week of first year together. He did a good job because Cousins went 3 for 3 final drive and they got the Win. 

30 minutes ago, Reaper Skins said:

luckily for the fans, if there's one thing this franchise is known for,  its calm, rational thinking when it comes to front office decisions  Ashamed smiley 3

:hitfan::table2::rofl89:

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Totally sell.  Not being able to to convert and 3rd and 1 twice showed that he was coaching scared of the Eagles defense and had no confidence in his offense, especially in the RBs and the OL.  SMH!

On 10/26/2017 at 8:48 AM, skins island connection said:

 

 This team is in dire need for a good OC. Jay can't just throw the responsibility of play calling on his back and plow along. Even if Callahan or Cavanaugh are doing it, its not working.

Jay has to find a good OC and give him the keys. The struggling in 2 minute offenses are hurting this team, and that's a critical point in games; it can give an opponent a ton of momentum if they succeed against us in a 2 minute drill, offensively or defensively.

 

 

Agreed.  The end of the of the SF game and the two 3rd and 1s vs Philly showed that he sucks at offensive play calling.  The loss of McVay is showing up big time.  

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This team has no concept of what to do in under 2-minute situations, both offensively or defensively. 

 

Other teams only need 20 seconds to get into scoring position from their own 20, and actually do so. When given the same task, our team wilts, kneels down, or throws the ball in the middle of the field. 

 

Other teams seem to play the percentages, metrics football, opting for the more favorable situational percentage for the better outcome.

 

When given a 3rd and 6, while having the lead in the 4th, with under 2-mintues, the Redskins choose to run the ball rather than go for a high percentage short pass, a screen, or back-side TE in the flats. 

 

If the conversion rate for running the ball on 3rd down and +5yards to gain, in under 2-minute situations, when the opposing defense is calling timeouts after each run, is at 15%, Gruden likes those chances.

 

For most teams in under 2-minute situations, the average plays runs about 6 seconds. So, with 28 seconds left in a game one can calculate that a well coached, efficient, and practiced offense could conceivably run anywhere from 4 to 5 plays. For the Redskins, we get off two plays ... maybe. 

 

In today's NFL, 30 seconds is all you need in order to give yourself a legit chance to cross mid-field, at least get to the 50 and attempt a hail mary, if not already reach the opposition 35 for a well in range FG attempt.

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9 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

What's the chances of replacing Gruden with Gruden ?

Let's get a head coach from North Dakota. Both Grudens go to the booth, both Grudens chant "North Dakota Strong, North Dakota Strong" each game we play Carson Wentz with our North Dakota coach.

 

Actually, I'd send all the players and coaches to live in North Dakota during the offseason to toughen them up, give them more strength. North Dakota Strength.

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5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Couldn't find the numbers anywhere, so I did the math myself (hope I didnt make any errors)

 

1st half of games this season:

Redskins 98

Opponents 71

 

2nd halfs:

Redskins 62

Opponents 109

 

The only team we've outscored in the second half was Oakland (13-10).

 

 

That Niners game told us all we need to know.  Kyle straight wore him out in the 2nd half.

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11 minutes ago, skins4eva said:

Gruden is an idiot. We aren't going anywhere with this joker as our head coach. 

YUP. Hated to be wrong, but I wasn't. I don't see it, I don't see it ending well. 

 

Well there you have it, Bmitch seeing it. 

46 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

What's the chances of replacing Gruden with Gruden ?

 

Look that lineage is overrated, Jon won with Tony's team, Jay no better than 50-50 so far. 

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