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Jay Gruden: Buy, Sell Or HOLD: 2017 edition


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23 hours ago, SkinssRvA said:

from 10-3 to 24-10.  That was probably Gruden's worst game as a hc.  

The Skins had one possession during that point shift. If you're pointing a finger at someone, I can't comprehend how it's not at Manusky...

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There are a lot of injuries this season all around the league. It's not just us.

 

However, we are beating teams with losing records and losing to teams with winning records. It's been this way for years. 

 

In this iteration, it's inconsistent QB play, loss of some skill players, waiting for young players to develop, and poor game management by the HC.

 

The FO gave Gruden an extension, if KC leaves, we won't have a decent QB, so unless we don't win any more games this season, we won't be able to draft a good prospect. 

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Some things that bother me about Gruden...

 

1. Why doesn't he have a pure fullback on the roster? I'm watching the Pats manhandle Atl with a fullback and Gruden has yet to bring one in. Why? He has a former wr playing fullback. Not sure if that's one of the many reasons why we can't get a yard on 3rd and 1 and we have to be in shotgun. 

 

2. Why does he ask Reed to block on obvious pass plays? I've seen this a few times this year, makes no sense. The guy can't block my 85 year old mom. 

 

3. Why all the run around w/ Docston? It took you 6 weeks to give him somewhat of an expanded role? What are you waiting for? For Pryor to actually learn how to catch? 

 

4. Clock management....  you think you'd figure it out after a few years but you still make basic mistakes. 

 

5. How come he never runs hurry up unless it's at the end of the game or half? 

 

6. Please run read option plays against the 4-3 teams. Especially when you need a yard.  It seems to work. 

24 minutes ago, CTskin said:

The Skins had one possession during that point shift. If you're pointing a finger at someone, I can't comprehend how it's not at Manusky...

Maybe if he would call better plays on 3rd and 1 some drives could have been sustained and points could have been scored. 

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3 minutes ago, Alexa said:

Some things that bother me about Gruden...

 

2. Why does he ask Reed to block on obvious pass plays? I've seen this a few times this year, makes no sense. The guy can't block my 85 year old mom. 

 

3. Why all the run around w/ Docston? It took you 6 weeks to give him somewhat of an expanded role? What are you waiting for? For Pryor to actually learn how to catch? 

 

4. Clock management....  you think you'd figure it out after a few years but you still make basic mistakes. 

 

5. How come he never runs hurry up unless it's at the end of the game or half? 

2.  I'm not sure what the answer here is for this.  I don't think it's possible to get away from it completely but I'd agree that they cannot have him one on one blocking a pass rush specialist on 3rd down.  It will end in a punt at best every single time.

 

3.  Cooley has been talking about this today.  They decided to give him a chance and he was less than impressive with his routes and effort.  Just like Pryor.  Neither of those guys play with fire or urgency.

 

4.  Keim or someone has to dig deeper into how he handles the clock/challenges.  Is someone really in the booth helping with this stuff and if so, who and why?

 

5.  They like to rotate a lot and can't really do that in hurry-up is all I can think of.  I've been waiting for the day he gives Kirk the keys to the car and just lets him drive.

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I've been a Gruden supporter, and overall still like him, but Monday night was definitely a bad night for him. Mistake after mistake after mistake.

 

There are things Gruden does well. The team generally is prepared to play and the guys seem to play hard and enjoy playing for him. In 2015 we were 5-7 and had to win out to make the playoffs and we did. Last year we started 0-2 but the team didn't give up, bounced back to get to 6-3-1(yes I know we fell apart late).

 

As an offensive mind I think his gameplanning is good and his play design is top notch, but his big weakness seems to be in game feel and adjusting. He's a good strategist, but poor tactician, if that makes any sense.

 

I do like that he's brutally honest and will punish guys for underperforming despite what they may make in salary or where they were drafted. Even from his first year with RG3, to now with guys like Doctson and Pryor. That isn't always the case with coaches.

 

I don't think we should get rid of Gruden, but I'm questioning whether he'll ever be a Super Bowl winning coach. We might be better off keeping him for another year or two while we stock the cupboard more, and if he underachieves we get rid of him and find the Jim Harbaugh to Gruden's Mike Singletary.

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24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

2.  I'm not sure what the answer here is for this.  I don't think it's possible to get away from it completely but I'd agree that they cannot have him one on one blocking a pass rush specialist on 3rd down.  It will end in a punt at best every single time.

The answer is that they don't have a real OC.  The combination of Gruden, Cavanaugh and Callahan all have game-planning responsibility.  Gruden is probably a fine OC if that's his only job, but it's not Cavanaugh was an OC, and wasn't great at it based on the results of his teams.  Callahan is a good OL coach, and was an OC and HC. Unlikely last year, there's no McVay who's definitely the OC, and has responsibility to put together a game plan.

 

This is because Gruden is an inexperienced manager who thinks he can do everything.  He's wrong.  

 

24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

3.  Cooley has been talking about this today.  They decided to give him a chance and he was less than impressive with his routes and effort.  Just like Pryor.  Neither of those guys play with fire or urgency.

The fact that Gruden came out and said both Pryor and Doctson play the same position (X), and Crowder and Grant play the Z is a crime against football logic.  By doing this, you're essentially limiting your ability to get both of your 2 most physically talented receivers who are both inexperienced enough reps, because they have to sub out for each other.  AND you've got a physically limited guy in Grant penciled in as the starter on the other side.

 

You've sub-optimized everything by making idiotic decisions because of a ridiculous man-crush on a try-hard, physically limited guy.  

 

24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

4.  Keim or someone has to dig deeper into how he handles the clock/challenges.  Is someone really in the booth helping with this stuff and if so, who and why?

Regardless of how he handles it, its' Gruden's responsibility to set up the structure so it's done well.  Clearly that's been done poorly, or he's a doofus and doesn't know what the hell to do.  

 

I think that one thing which SHOULD help is that if he wasn't calling plays.  Which means that he's able to focus on coaching the game.  

 

There are very few coaches in the league who can pull off calling plays and calling a game.  Reid is about the only one who is good at calling plays as a HC, but he's terrible at managing the clock.  Just about all of the other HCs have given it up.  

 

24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

5.  They like to rotate a lot and can't really do that in hurry-up is all I can think of.  I've been waiting for the day he gives Kirk the keys to the car and just lets him drive.

That's true, and it's a stupid excuse.  I would like to lock Gruden in a room with 48 hours of Peyton Manning/Tom Brady hurry-up drive film, and force him to implement some of it.  Cousins isn't Brady or Manning.  Far from it.  But what both the Cots and Pats did so well was actually simplifying the offense for everybody and using hurry-up to get an advantage. You can also catch defenses in bad looks.  

 

AND most importantly, the 'Skins actually have the personnel l to pull it off.  In order to run that style effectively, you need a RB who can do everything (CT) and 2 TEs who can block and pass, at least to an extent. (Reed/VD).  You put that with 2 WRs (Crowder/Docton would be my choice), and you can keep the same personnel group on the field at the same time, and do a million things.  Hell, you could even split Reed out wide as a WR, and bring Crowder inside at times.  

 

There is so much they can do, but they are so stuck on a million packages and plodding along.  

 

Bad coaching. 

 

It's all bad freaking coaching.  

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1 hour ago, CTskin said:

The Skins had one possession during that point shift. If you're pointing a finger at someone, I can't comprehend how it's not at Manusky...

Even if you want to point the finger at Manusky (who clearly has improved the D by leaps and bounds) then that falls on the head of the head coach. Gruden assembled his staff. The buck stops at the head coach.

 

That said, Manusky has turned out to be a much better hire than I imagined. He has this team competing and much, much improved. He has made the defense work despite being down in the secondary in a ridiculous way. Props to Breeland for a gutsy game on a bad leg.

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14 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Even if you want to point the finger at Manusky (who clearly has improved the D by leaps and bounds) then that falls on the head of the head coach. Gruden assembled his staff. The buck stops at the head coach.

 

That said, Manusky has turned out to be a much better hire than I imagined. He has this team competing and much, much improved. He has made the defense work despite being down in the secondary in a ridiculous way. Props to Breeland for a gutsy game on a bad leg.

He pointed out a specific point swing in the game where the Eagles scored 3 TDs on 3 drives during which we had one possession. I was just responding to that situation and how it's completely incorrect to put it on Gruden. That was 100% on Manusky, who I like a lot and agree was a great hire.

23 minutes ago, SkinssRvA said:

 

2 possessions.  

One possession. Eagles scored a 70 yard bomb TD. We got the ball back and did nothing. They got it back and scored right before half time. They then got the ball back to kick off the 2nd half.

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Imagine Gruden as a stock, you're not selling. He offers significant upside with minimal risk (the floor is 7 wins, ceiling is playoffs+). Selling only makes sense if you believe there's a better investment out there (this imaginary hedge fund can only invest in one stock at a time). You would be a terrible investor to sell your asset with blind hope that some amazing investment opportunity appears. 

 

Everyone is so quick to forget how many bad head coaches have come thru here and how desperate we've been for normalcy. The same people who want to avoid another circus like the plague are calling for the heads of our head coach and QB just weeks after praising the **** out of them for impressive primetime showings... It's hypocrisy at its finest and it's sad how many are missing that. Is Gruden the next Belicheck, probably not. Does he make mistakes, definitely. Who the **** doesnt? All of the sudden it's like this fanbase can't appreciate a respectable team, no, it's either be great or be embarrassing, don't be just good. 

 

Smarten up because if you dump something decent do you really have faith that Snyder will make a better hire next time? Just take a step back, get over the recency bias of the Eagles loss and move on. In this crazy season of parity, every fanbase has dealt with ****ty losses. Whether you like it or not, this team will be a playoff contender. 

35 minutes ago, SkinssRvA said:

2 possessions, sir.  

Haha oh the 26 seconds before half. I think you're a good guy so I mean this in the most respectful way- gtfo for counting that. 

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@CTskin Well I was half kidding.  But realistically, with 30 seconds and 3 timesouts, you gotta shoot your shot.  Far stranger things have happened that getting 35 yards and kicking around a ~55 yard field goal.  Especially when we were in the midst of a 14 point swing and any momentum we could get back would be massive.  

 

21 point turnaround in what, like 8 minutes of gametime?  I don't even know because my stomach was full of whiskey.  I do know we have multiple possessions when up 10-3 to push our lead out, and we couldn't.  Then, in the midst of their 21 point run, we folded.  Mental weakness comes directly from the head coach, and I saw that on gameday.  To your point, Manusky must be better.  But I really do believe this was one of Gruden's worst coached games, for lots of reasons.  

 

And fwiw, I think you're a good guy too :ols:

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1 hour ago, CTskin said:

 

Haha oh the 26 seconds before half. I think you're a good guy so I mean this in the most respectful way- gtfo for counting that. 

 

I if am trailing, and they get the ball after halftime, you can bet your Aunt Gingers pumpkin pie or whatever pie,  I am trying to get in FG position. 

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2 hours ago, Burgold said:

Even if you want to point the finger at Manusky (who clearly has improved the D by leaps and bounds) then that falls on the head of the head coach. Gruden assembled his staff. The buck stops at the head coach.

 

That said, Manusky has turned out to be a much better hire than I imagined. He has this team competing and much, much improved. He has made the defense work despite being down in the secondary in a ridiculous way. Props to Breeland for a gutsy game on a bad leg.

I agree, I wasn't super impressed by the hire, but he's done a good job, especially since he's had to deal with a MASH unit since about week 3.  And losing Jon Allen is a big loss.  Breeland and Ioannidis have both been abducted by aliens and replaced by much improved players. Mason Foster also.  

 

They're still missing some pieces, and make mistakes, but the defense resembles a pro NFL defense now, vs. what that idiot Barry and his staff put on the field last year.  

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11 minutes ago, SWFLSkins said:

 

I if am trailing, and they get the ball after halftime, you can bet your Aunt Gingers pumpkin pie or whatever pie,  I am trying to get in FG position. 

Even a pecan pie?

 

I agree, but given the slim chance of that working out, I can't realistically put any weight of the loss on those 26 seconds. 

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31 minutes ago, CTskin said:

Even a pecan pie?

 

I agree, but given the slim chance of that working out, I can't realistically put any weight of the loss on those 26 seconds. 

 

This is a historical problem thus far though, as mentioned in my Opener of this thread, closing out the half continues to hurt Jay and the team. 

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1 minute ago, SWFLSkins said:

 

This is a historical problem thus far though, as mentioned in my Opener of this thread, closing out the half continues to hurt Jay and the team. 

 

Perhaps we should try a rule change next year of reducing games to 1 Quarter? We wouldn't have the end of half problem then.

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I was a critic of Jay in year 1 though I was hardcore against firing him.  I said after year 1, the dude deserves a chance to learn from his experience. 1 year is a small sample size.  And IMO he did lean.    He comes off to me as a guy who is open to learning and changing.  And I like that.  That's not the vibe I got for example from Shanny or even Zorn. 

 

I think the most under-appreciated thing about Jay is he keeps the zoo at bay. And by appearances it looks like he pulls it off both publicly and privately.   IMO the guys above him don't ooze likability or competence.   Jay puts a good face on this franchise and its needed.   I spent one day around Redskins Park last year and I was trying to observe as much as I could.   I came off with a really good impression of Jay from observing him with the team and talking to some of the staff and Scot.   Comes off like a real down to earth -- good guy.     There are more things that I like about Jay then just his personality.  But IMO having the right personality is a bigger deal with this franchise than most.

 

I like for example Bruce Arians as a coach but watching the dude on the Amazon series -- I think he'd be the wrong fit for this team.   Jay's personality IMO is the perfect fit. 

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25 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

I'm very meh on Gruden. He's decent but ain't gonna inspire an average group over the top but I'd stick for now.

 

More often than not when we lose I tend to feel like we've been out coached, not out played. Happens too often that.

And when we wins is it because we outplayed or out coached the other team?

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This is a tough question to really answer. To properly do so we have to ask ourselves who would be his replacement? The Skins HC job probably isn't the top pick for any up and coming coach or an older coach who has a certain 'way' they want to do things. 

 

When looking at Jay he gets along with management/ownership, which is something that hasn't happened too often here. Knowing that is important for the 'going forward' type analysis. Also, in saying that he took a hard stance on RG3, which was the right call, but I was supersized that he kept his job after that. Again, that speaks to the relationship he's formed with Snyder. 

 

At the end of the day Jay might be the best option. He's a football guy making football decisions. He's somewhat insulating the team from the non-football decisions Snyder would make, which is a good thing. I also don't know if we'd get a better candidate. What if we hired some young offensive coordinator who came in and immediately clashed? it would just force a full on rebuild, but it would put the fan base through a lot of frustration. 

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When talking about new coach, I always say the same thing: don't come to me with problems, come to me with solutions.

 

You fire Gruden, fine. But who are you going to get that's better? An up and coming assistant is, realistic best case scenario, another Gruden except it will take 2-3 years for him to learn and get to that point and we'd lose a lot of games along the way. You're more likely to get Josh McDaniels than Bill Bellicheck.

 

You could go the retread route, but again, you're talking about getting a guy who was previously fired. I'd look at Schwartz in Philly as his teams in Detroit were competitive, but they were always extremely undisciplined.

 

 

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