2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[D'Pablo]

I want Vita Vea on this team so bad... The guy can flat out run and maul at 340lbs.  Moreover, he has to have excellent stamina given that he plays in a pass happy conference - he’ll need it given the amount of 3 and outs we had this season.  A guy like Vea could easily transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and vice versa.  Given how precarious our coaching staff’s employment situation is, we will want that scheme versatility.

[Mania]

On 1/2/2018 at 11:30 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think 16th

No the Ravens pick 16th and are 9-7

On 1/2/2018 at 12:52 PM, The Consigliere said:

 

No, it's 16th. The team with the tougher strength of schedule loses thetie breaker and picks after the easier sos squad. 

 

 

Again, it couldn't be 16th because the Ravens at 9-7 are picking 16th

[B&G]

I'd like to see us draft RB, FS, ILB, WR, G, NT,  DE, not necessarily in that order.  Of course, free agency could change that.  If we lose Cousins, no draftee is going to replace him.  I trust Gruden to determine if  McCoy can serve as a placeholder until next year, or if we should go with a free agent.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Out of general curiosity I looked at the last 3 drafts and how many players at RB and Guard were drafted.

Guard:

R1: 2 --- R2: 2 --- R3: 2 --- R4: 4 --- R5: 3 --- R6: 2 --- R7: 1

 

Running Back:

R1: 2 --- R2: 2 --- R3: 3 --- R4: 5 --- R5: 5 --- R6: 3 --- R7: 4

 

Now how that translates to actual starters, it's obviously a bit of a crapshoot. But this does give a strong sense of how to expect the trends to go. Makes me feel pretty good about getting a dynamic RB in the 2nd in a loaded RB class ... and even the 3rd. After the 3rd though, there is typically a run, and you risk losing your guy and likely some control over the "run" if you wait til Round 3.

 

Guard is a bit more evenly spread, but I would venture to guess you can get an immediate-starter type at OG in R1 and R2.

 

So yeah, would be hard to see the #14 OG going in the 3rd round. And I'd expect that guy would either climb up the ranks, or have his range adjusted down. It's currently R3-5 but the avg. spot for the #14 Guard to go is Round 6.

[skinny21]

@JamesMadisonSkins

Thanks for posting that.  I (very simplistically, I admit) am hoping we draft something like I used to in fantasy football - if a run started on receivers, I’d take the top TE instead of the 8th (or lower) best receiver.  

 

With that said, while we could (likely) get a top 3 guard in round 1, a top 5 back, and a top 3 TE, for example... I’d really like to land an impact dlineman early, and it would be hard to pass certain prospects if they fall to us (in any given round).  As of now though, my ideal would be a FA G and receiver, and then dline, running back and TE in rds 1-3.  

 

Edit:  meant to ask, was that an average for the last three drafts, or did they all happen to shake out the same at those positions?

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, SkinsFanMania said:

No the Ravens pick 16th and are 9-7

Again, it couldn't be 16th because the Ravens at 9-7 are picking 16th

 

OK, I didn't bother to look it up, just did a quick guess.  So 15 then.  thanks

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

@JamesMadisonSkins

 

Edit:  meant to ask, was that an average for the last three drafts, or did they all happen to shake out the same at those positions?

That was the average, but it was pretty close across the board.

 

Gurley and Gordon in the 1st in 15 ... Zeke in the 1st in 16 ... Fournette and McCaffrey in the 1st in 17 ... avg. of 1.667 rounded up to 2 ... etc. 

[PlayAction]

57 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK, I didn't bother to look it up, just did a quick guess.  So 15 then.  thanks

Skins pick 13 if that was the question.

[Berggy9598]

Heard Charles Davis on Mad Dog Radio on XM (great channel btw) talking about Baker Mayfield and he said Baker Mayfield is a complete gym/film room rat, which I find very encouraging if indeed we end up with him. I didn't like seeing him struggle against a team that has the athletes to take away his immediate read and still keep him in the pocket, which is IMO the downfall of quite a few QBs that came from simplistic offenses and had their first and second read open more times than not. I still say he's not a day 1 starter unless he's on a loaded roster, but being that gym/film room rat would really help him with the transition to running a pro offense in the NFL. 

[LuRedskins]

9 hours ago, Berggy9598 said:

Heard Charles Davis on Mad Dog Radio on XM (great channel btw) talking about Baker Mayfield and he said Baker Mayfield is a complete gym/film room rat, which I find very encouraging if indeed we end up with him. I didn't like seeing him struggle against a team that has the athletes to take away his immediate read and still keep him in the pocket, which is IMO the downfall of quite a few QBs that came from simplistic offenses and had their first and second read open more times than not. I still say he's not a day 1 starter unless he's on a loaded roster, but being that gym/film room rat would really help him with the transition to running a pro offense in the NFL. 

 

He didn’t quite struggle against Georgia. He put up 23/35 - 287yds - 2tds - 1int. 

Not spectacular for him, but against the #6 defense in college football it’s not a bad stat line. And considering the defenses he’s used to playing it was a little relieving for me, if we do end up with him like you said.

[CaptainChaos47]

14 hours ago, Berggy9598 said:

Heard Charles Davis on Mad Dog Radio on XM (great channel btw) talking about Baker Mayfield and he said Baker Mayfield is a complete gym/film room rat, which I find very encouraging if indeed we end up with him. I didn't like seeing him struggle against a team that has the athletes to take away his immediate read and still keep him in the pocket, which is IMO the downfall of quite a few QBs that came from simplistic offenses and had their first and second read open more times than not. I still say he's not a day 1 starter unless he's on a loaded roster, but being that gym/film room rat would really help him with the transition to running a pro offense in the NFL. 

 

I read Bruce Arians book and that was the main point he made about drafting a QB.  He was on the Colts staff when they took Peyton over Leaf and he said he rallied for Peyton leading up to the draft because he was constantly in the film room breaking down plays.  If this is true and Mayfield is the same way I definitely feel a lot better about him at #13.  That work ethic is key at the next level.

[clskinsfan]

Not really draft related, at least not this draft, but is anyone else watching The Army All- American Bowl? These high school kids now a days are ridiculous. The future of football looks fine by watching that.

[Long n Left]

A day 3 value sleeper for me that I think has the brains and athleticism to take over for Trent in a couple years, or maybe move him inside, is Brandon Parker from NC A&T. Guy hasn't given up a sack...his entire college career. Electrical engineering degree also.

[The Consigliere]

 

One thing I'd prefer in here, not that it's my choice obviously, is that people talk in positional tiers. Having posted about drafts since I was obsessed with us getting Tony Brackens or Daryl Gardner in 1996, I've found over the past 20 years that obsessing on particular players is kind of pointless. I think we've drafted like 5 guys I wanted in my 30 years of watching NFL Drafts on tv. About 6-7. Reggie Brooks, Ricky Ervins, Fred Smoot, Champ Bailey, Orakpo, RGIII off the top of my head. The other hundreds of picks have been guys I either knew about or knew nothing about and the in-between. Over the past decade I've just found it much more helpful to talk positional tiering with positions of interest. Focusing on a player often ends up pages and pages of raging debate, sometimes with some nasty behavior, and for no point whatsoever by the end of it as he goes elsewhere. Better to focus on your top 5 guys at a position on day 1 and day 2 and perhaps your top 5 day 3 gems at particular positions. 

 

Posting exclusively about Baker Mayfield, Derrius Guice, or your favorite DT this year? Not nearly as helpful or elucidating or even useful by May. Just a thought, after thirty years of watching drafts and 20+ of posting about them in Redskins forums. I'd love to get some of that player specific posting time back, alas, that aint happening. 

 

[wildbill1952]

The first thing the Skins need to do is to be able to compete in the NFC EAST. That means they must have a run-stopping defense, and they need to have a running game. They currently have neither.  Yes, injuries played a part, but the Eagles, the Cowboys and even the Giants were reeling off 6 to 9 yard runs like they were running against a Pop Warner football team when they played the Skins. The New Orleans game would have been put away if the Skins could gain a yard on third down.

The Skins, as always, have some real needs. But they need to consider the Philadelphia approach on defense, getting some big boys up front that can occupy blockers, collapse the pocket and eat up space. But they need enough of them that they can change these guys out often. Off the bat, Viya Veae of Washington, Christian Wilkins of Clemson or Da'Ron Payne of Alabma are all true nose tackles that can anchor the middle of the defensive line, eat up space and be a force against a run game.

On offense, 45% of the running plays went inside the tackles and Washington ranked 28th in the league on those runs. Pass protection took a great step backwards and they ranked 24th (Football Outsiders stats). Billy Price of Ohio State is someone who can play center or guard and is one of the few capable of moving the upper echelon of nose tackles in the NFL. He would immediately upgrade the OL on the Skins. If he's gone, then Bradley Bozeman of Alabama is still an upgrade to either Long or Roullier and would let either move to guard. Annother long shot who got hurt is Frank Ragnow of Arkansas. He missed the last half of the season due to injury (like Long did in his senior year) and the Skins may be able to pick him up in the later rounds. But for the injury, he might have been one of the top two or three center/guards.

 

No sense getting another running back without upgrading the OL. And no sense getting more defensive backs if the opponents can run all day.

[PlayAction]

1 hour ago, wildbill1952 said:

Billy Price of Ohio State is someone who can play center or guard and is one of the few capable of moving the upper echelon of nose tackles in the NFL. He would immediately upgrade the OL on the Skins. If he's gone, then Bradley Bozeman of Alabama is still an upgrade to either Long or Roullier and would let either move to guard. No sense getting another running back without upgrading the OL. And no sense getting more defensive backs if the opponents can run all day.

 

Roullier played Center at Wyoming and was drafted to play Center.  I'm not sure anyone knows how he would do at Guard but if you are looking for an upgrade I'd say just draft a pure Guard.  Or, convert a college tackle to Guard (like Scherff).  I read something recently that there is some question whether it's time to convert Nseke from tackle to guard.  I thought he was playing pretty well at Tackle but if he can do guard he might prefer the opportunity to start.  

 

There's an on-going debate whether the poor production in the running game is the fault of the OL or the TEs.  Skins couldn't run in the preseason even when everyone was relatively healthy.  I agree though that it must be fixed.  Both on Offense and on Defense.

[Skins199021]

Want to trade for multiple 2nd round picks, and get one of geuce or K. Johnson for an RB

 

13 for 2 2nds and a 3rd? or is that asking too much

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Skins199021 said:

Want to trade for multiple 2nd round picks, and get one of geuce or K. Johnson for an RB

 

13 for 2 2nds and a 3rd? or is that asking too much

 

I'll pass on that. At 13 we are still going to get an impact player. You can find them in the second round as well. But they are A LOT easier to find in the top 15 of the draft.

[Warhead36]

People obsess over trading down. Quality beats quantity everytime. Trading down in the middle rounds is fine, but we need a dynamic, explosive game changer.

[lavar1156]

If I'm the Browns I would take Barkley #1. None of the QB's are worth that pick. 

[Skinsinparadise]

21 hours ago, CaptainChaos47 said:

 

I read Bruce Arians book and that was the main point he made about drafting a QB.  He was on the Colts staff when they took Peyton over Leaf and he said he rallied for Peyton leading up to the draft because he was constantly in the film room breaking down plays.  If this is true and Mayfield is the same way I definitely feel a lot better about him at #13.  That work ethic is key at the next level.

 I read Arian's book, work ethic is important but another key thing for him with quarterbacks is the ability to process whats going around them fast.

 

I recall him saying in a classroom most qbs come off smart because they have the benefit of time. In a game you have to read coverages, set protections, go through your progessions lightening quick. Some quartebacks can, some can't and that for him is the end all be all.

 

A guy like Mayfield who plays in a spread system, out of the shot gun, against the atrocious big 12 defenses - i would presume would be a question mark with Arians.

[skinfan2k]

15 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

People obsess over trading down. Quality beats quantity everytime. Trading down in the middle rounds is fine, but we need a dynamic, explosive game changer.

agree! we need A+ talent on this squad. 

[skinny21]

18 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

Roullier played Center at Wyoming and was drafted to play Center.  I'm not sure anyone knows how he would do at Guard but if you are looking for an upgrade I'd say just draft a pure Guard.  Or, convert a college tackle to Guard (like Scherff).  I read something recently that there is some question whether it's time to convert Nseke from tackle to guard.  I thought he was playing pretty well at Tackle but if he can do guard he might prefer the opportunity to start.  

 

There's an on-going debate whether the poor production in the running game is the fault of the OL or the TEs.  Skins couldn't run in the preseason even when everyone was relatively healthy.  I agree though that it must be fixed.  Both on Offense and on Defense.

I believe Roullier played guard until moving to C his senior year.  He also played some guard for us, though I don’t know how well he played (my impression was he did ok, particularly for a rook).  

 

Don’t really like the idea of Nsekhe at guard, mostly due to his height, but if he wins a competition, so be it.  

 

I think the oline has room to improve run blocking, but I believe Roullier will be an upgrade over Long in that department and it shouldn’t be too hard to upgrade over Lauvao.  I put more onus on the TEs overall though - they really struggle to make a difference - whiffing on blocks both at the line and in space.  Way too many instances of the TEs not even slowing backside defenders.  

 

A better back would be helpful as well.  More chunk plays would up our average, allow us to move the ball better, suck defenders into the box, help the PA passing, etc.  

 

I haven’t absolved the scheme either.  

[Mania]

On 1/1/2018 at 11:42 PM, The Consigliere said:

 

Well this is the last draft to get legit RB help for a bit. It's not a renaissance so much as an conglomeration of multiple factors the most important being that: 

#1

RB crops went into the toilet starting in 1987/1988 (in terms of birth year) and the dead period ended between 1992 and 1993. This helps to explain the dearth of backs in the league until recently. Look at the 2009-2014 RB crops. They are a house of horrors.

 

#2

Additionally, at the time people thought the problem was that with rule changes emphasizing the pass, and deemphasizing running, rib's were in less demand, and perceived as less valuable. This is only half right. It is true that running backs are less valuable than they used to be. Enough studies have been done to uncover the sharp declines scene in positional productivity as rib's close in on age 30. As a result teams are less inclined to pay up on 2nd contracts and especially on third contracts. They just unload the backs and draft replacements.

 

#3

However as mentioned in point #1, the key reason running games were dempehasized was a combination of the dearth of quality running backs crops in combination with rule changes which leads to point #3 which is:

Starting in 2015 we had a series of RB crops that injected a gigantic pile of perceived high end and second tier talent into the league. Depending upon whom you talked to, the '15 class was either loaded with RB talent, or loaded with second tier RB talent. Either way you look at it, when the '15 class came along we saw Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson TJ Yeldon, Jay Ajayi, and David Johnson, '16 was yet another ghastly crop but with Zeke Elliot in, the problems were glossed over, then '17 came in, and was viewed as similar to the '14 WR class (regarded as the best ever for the position alongside 1996), ditto 2018. In '17 you had 4 RB's with top 20 grades in Fournette, Cook, Mixon, and McCaffrey, then a huge pile of second tier options like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Foreman, Perine, Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, and a third tier with Gallman, Cohen, Jamal Williams etc. Just incredibly deep and top heavy. 2018 was perceived as similarly talented, with a thinner cream up top (Barkley and Guice) but just as deep . In 2019 this spigot shuts off again. Will it be another dead period like 2009-2014? Who knows, we just know that in 2019, it's all about the WR with a crop that would likely rank in the top 3-4 of the past 25 years at the position while RB won't be very special.

 

In terms of targets you have:

 

Barkley: A tier all his own, considered the elite of the elite w/a grade potentially as high as any RB drafted since A.P. in 2007. Many view him as better and cleaner as a prospect than Zeke, Fournette, Cook or Mixon, and as talented as A.P.

 

Tier 2:

Guice: In 2016 there were times when people spoke of him in a similar light to Fournette viewing him as as talented or perhaps even moreso. He will be the RB available at our slot potentially worth the selection, maybe.

 

Tier 3:

Chubb: Viewed as the best RB in the '17-'18 class before he tore his ACL in 2015. Has never appeared as fast or as possessing that same second gear he had in 2014 and September 2015 since, but as he showed in the playoff tonight, he could be the steal of the draft, but if he blows up in the combine, he'll jump from a third round grade to a first round grade. 

 

Tier 4:

This is where I can't really get a feel for guys yet, there's a bunch of sub-tiers, and satellite backs mixed in with 3 down backs mixed in with 2 down guys, in no particular order:

 

2 Down backs and Bell Cows:

 

B. Love: Size and pass catching prowess is the concern (Stanford had no issue using McCaffrey as an every down back, why didn't they feel the same about passing to Love?).

 

D. Harris: Has gotten a lot of heat this year, lapping Scarborough in the process. 

 

R. Freeman: He's a sneaky guy like Chubb, may not have the athletic profile which is a major concern (there are some math geeks that have built models that have been incredibly successful in projecting busts amongst highly rated guys, one of the key features is 40 times that are sub 4.65 and 4.5-this is one of the features that put Perine in an ugly spot in their regression tree).  Anyway Freeman has been monstrously productive, like Steven Jackson productive at Oregon. Not the same athlete as him, but he has ideal size unlike so many successful Oregon RB's before him. 

 

K Ballage: There were some that saw him as a potential monster for '17, and then his season went over "like a fart in church." Just an absolute horror show of a draft season. The lack of productivity in his final seasons was very troubling after he played so well in his sophomore year. A lot of scouts see him as a potential monster with his enormous size and athleticism. The concern is over why he was just so unproductive. Something clearly was wrong with either him or his offense. 

 

John Kelly: Really burst onto the scene this year. Sneaky talented prospect according to quite a lot of respected sources. I need to look at him.

 

The Satellite+ Backs:

 

R. Jones III: Some have him as high as a top 3-4 back in the class, I'm a bit worried about his size, not sure he can be a bell cow. 

 

Gaskin: Similar issues. Size is not ideal.May go back to school.

 

Michel: A break out game for an explosive performer whose consistently show the ability to generate huge plays tonight. 

 

The Day 3 question mark guys:

J. Adams: Some people hate him, some have a fondness for him, and he stunk it up big time in his bowl game against LSU.

 

R. Penny: Exploded for 2000 plus yards against weak competition in 2016. His combine will be huge for him as unlike pumphrey, he has the size to be a bell cow. 

 

Wadley: I love targeting guys who were off a bit in their final year because bad draft years from players who killed it as sophomores and juniors tend to come at a sharp discount and often actually become quality pros. 

 

LJ Scott: Same as Wadley.

 

 

 

What do you mean by satellite+ backs

[Skins199021]

17 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

People obsess over trading down. Quality beats quantity everytime. Trading down in the middle rounds is fine, but we need a dynamic, explosive game changer.

Disagree, you can find difference makers all over... all on the GM at that point.

 

The Reality is we need a FS, ILB, DT, and an RB.....But perhaps FA will address two of those, Resign Brown, and sign Minter for ILB.

 

Draft Vita round one.... hope some good RBs are there when we pick 2nd, and neglect the FS position for the Nth time. Swearinger is a SS, that is where he is best.