2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Wanted to see where various Mocks have RBs going ..

 

Walter Football: Barkley (4), Jones (34), Chubb (37), Guice (38), Michel (40), Johnson (41), Penny (74), Freeman (82), Ballage (92), Walton (113), Scarbrough (118), Hines (130), Edmunds (136)

 

Draftsite: Barkley (2), Guice (20), Jones (33), Michel (38), Johnson (44), Penny (73), Chubb (83), Scarbrough (136), Hines (138), Freeman (143), Adams (155), Walton (204), Ballage (206)

 

Draftwire: Barkley (4), Guice (16), Michel (38), Jones (44), Chubb (49), Penny (66), Ballage (110), Freeman (117), Scarbrough (120), Hines (125), Adams (131), Wadley (132)

 

Walter is the only one that has the substantial run before our pick at 44. The others follow more historical data as far as where they go. How good this class is viewed by scouts will likely determine where the run ends up.

[skinsfan834]

 

 

This is actually pretty stellar... I can't even remember the last time we had a compensatory pick lol. Gives us a lot of flexibility over the next two drafts. I think what the Redskins are missing the most, is game-changing talent across the board. We really only have Trent Williams and sometimes Jordan Reed/Josh Norman who can be considered game-changers or superstars at their respective positions. Armed with extra picks, we could certainly move up if a player we love starts to fall either this year or next. 

 

 

 

[PlayAction]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I know some of you guys dont like Settle too much. But that kid is an athletic freak. He is going to need a ton of coaching and is not ready to to be an every down player yet. But he is some of the best clay in this draft. And we have a great teacher to mold him. A LOT of mocks have him falling into the 4th for just this reason. And I would ecstatic to get him there.

 

Settle's combine results were worse than expected in comparison to his peers.  I don't think he came across as an athletic freak but more as a poorly conditioned athlete.  Certainly it would be interesting to see how he might do with a year of intensive conditioning (nutrition and exercise) but that's the kind of guy that you take much lower than the 4th round.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Re: the comp picks ... still a chance that Breeland can get a deal later this off-season once he can clear the physical for teams ... another shot at a 5th comp pick unless his market has completely tanked.

[PlayAction]

30 minutes ago, skinsfan834 said:

I can't even remember the last time we had a compensatory pick lol. Gives us a lot of flexibility over the next two drafts. I think what the Redskins are missing the most, is game-changing talent across the board. We really only have Trent Williams and sometimes Jordan Reed/Josh Norman who can be considered game-changers or superstars at their respective positions. Armed with extra picks, we could certainly move up if a player we love starts to fall either this year or next. 

 

 

Am I correct that you can't trade your compensatory picks?  Getting compensatory picks certainly is a perk of having depth on the team - it creates a virtuous cycle of new talent.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, PlayAction said:

 

Am I correct that you can't trade your compensatory picks?  Getting compensatory picks certainly is a perk of having depth on the team - it creates a virtuous cycle of new talent.  

Think they changed that rule heading into either this or last year. You can now trade them.

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Think they changed that rule heading into either this or last year. You can now trade them.

This is correct.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Getting pick #163 from Denver for a guy (at least I) had completely ruled out of and off this team is better than nothing, obviously.

 

It also opens up one more "roster" spot that can be given to someone with upside and provide depth. You can never have too many picks, and with our recent success in the mid-rounds, I view the 5th rounder as a guy who can come in and provide needed depth and possibly contribute in the next 2-3 years.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

You know why I love FanSpeak? I went to run a simulation and propose a trade to Denver to get those picks (and do so by throwing in a future 2nd or something that gets trades done when the computer wont accept it when it involves a player) ... and they already have the traded picks re-assigned.

[Est.1974]

We need to be trading up using these extra picks in 2018 and 2019. 

 

#44 is too low in the 2nd to get the RB we should target. Or we need to try and get into the 3rd. Either way, we need to move picks around in my view. 

[The Consigliere]

On 3/27/2018 at 10:06 AM, clskinsfan said:

 

I disagree on Jones. He is a game changing RB. His tape is incredible.He doesnt have a lot of pass catching experience. But as a pure rusher he is amazing. Language warning on the video. Watch the play at the 4:00 mark. And earlier in the video where  he outruns Moreau. The guy is phenomenal IMO.

 

 

 

We already have what he does in Chris Thompson. Do you really think that frame is a lock to be able to handle between the tackles bell cow duties? He didn't even do it at USC, what makes you think he can do it in the NFL. Sounds like he failed interviews, he got hurt at the combine so we don't have reliable 40 (though I'm sure it's 4.4 something) we don't have the 3 cone, which is crucial, and we don't have his jumps, which show explosion, nor his BP, which shows dedication or lack thereof in the weight room. 

 

On tape hes a bit of a mess. I think Barfield really captures my complaints well, not sure how to embed the tweet from March 19th, so I'm just quoting the info:

 

In terms of the Yards Created metric he's built, here's where Jones sits in terms of percentile ranks amongst running backs evaluated through the system since 2015: 

 

"Yards Created/Attempt Inside: 6th Percentile

Yards Created/Attempt Outside: 71st Percentile

Yards Created/Attempt Shotgun: 7th Percentile

Missed Tackles/Attempt: 33rd Percentile

Yards Gained Per Route: 7th Percentile

 

Strong off tackle runner, red flags everywhere else"

 

 

When you look at it this way, he sounds like a poor man's Marlon Mack, and I don't recall anyone here obsessing on Mack beyond maybe me, as an interesting weapon w/potential as a starting back if he could solve his problems with pass blocking and bouncing way too many runs outside. 

 

If you scroll back in his twitter feed to Feb 18th you can see a bit more content on what to like and not to like, the key points being:

Explosive, but high variance runner, when he has gaps clear he can explode through the hole, but he really struggles with patience and sustaining runs. 

 

This basically captures why I don't want him. The mental make up issues are a concern for sure, ditto the lack of combine data, but the key issue is that again, we already have an explosive weapon that can take advantage of clearly defined gaps and do what Jones does well, and do some of what Jones doesn't do well (be consistently highly productive in the passing game). Drafting Jones is duplicating in house talent and not addressing the core problem which is the team lacking a true difference making bell cow that can be a weapon on every down, running inside and outside. 

 

The runners that have that skill are Barkley, Guice, probably Michel and Chubb, definitely Penny (though he needs a TON of work in pass blocking), and to a lesser extent, perhaps John Kelly, and Mark Walton, maybe. It's not Jones. Walton may end up being as problematic as Jones, we don't know, as he was hurt all last year so the data is unreliable, Kelly looks great in the metric, not so great in terms of athleticism. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Thought it would be interesting to look at a couple positions of need/interest here ... where we could go there early, or what options might fit late ... keep in mind these are my rankings and guys that have stuck out to me, not necessarily the overall rankings

 

Nose Tackle ...

1st round:

1. Vita Vea --- by all accounts a possible dominant DL prospect who could fall due to the NT label. Dominant run-stuffer, might lack pass-rushing ability

2. Daron Payne --- solid anchor on the DL, but probably just secondary to Vea

 

2nd round:

3. Tim Settle --- slated as a 2nd to 3rd rounder by Walter Football, would be a high-upside prospect to anchor the DL but def. more raw

4. Harrison Phillips --- Walter has him as a 2nd - 4th ... knock on Phillips is his pass-rushing ability, but stout against the run. A bit undersized (295) for a  NT, but likely a versatile lineman

 

4th round or 5th round:

5. BJ Hill --- Walter has him as a 3rd-5th round prospect, but a true NT that could anchor the line, but not necessarily an instant plug-and-play NT, probably starts out more rotational

6. Kendrick Norton --- high-upside, more traditional NT body with a weight of 320 ... Walter has him as a 3rd to 5th round grade

 

Offensive Guard:

1st Round (likely in a trade-down to the mid-20's)

1. Billy Price --- Walter has him as a Guard or Center and would be plug and play at either C or LG, depending on where we want Roullier

2. Isiaiah Wynn --- again, a Guard/Center combo that would provide instant starting and versatility along the interior OL

3. Will Hernandez --- specifically a guard

 

2nd Round:

Any of the above that fall +

4. Braden Smith --- strong starter at Auburn that would probably be among the last of the "safe" plug and plays for LG, although 2.12 is probably too early ... might need to trade back for him as his fit is in the late 2nd to early 3rd round

 

4th Round:

5. Sean Welsh --- has that Iowa big boy blood and could emerge as a starter even as a 4th rounder

6. Frank Ragnow --- graded as a Guard/Center combo ... got injured in 2017 but should be ready to go and was a top interior prospect going into 2017 season ... could be a 'typical' skins pick here in the 4th and immediately emerge as a starter at either spot

 

5th and Beyond:

7. Wyatt Teller --- Walter has him as a 4-6 ... but given local ties and solid interior experience, could be a project/competition at LG

8. Rod Taylor --- RT who also played LT and Guard ... versatile but would likely be an OG in the NFL ... Walter lists as a 4th-6th rounder

9. Colby Gossett --- versatility

10. Will Clapp -- G/C combo off a down year in 2017 but strong 2016

[The Consigliere]

18 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Vea doesn't need coaching up. He is going to be a stud run stuffer in the NFL. So what if he can't rush the passer? Give me a guy who can force 2nd and 11 everytime and I'll take my chances.

 

Run stuffing DT's are available in FA though. The expensive guys are the guys that add the element of the pass rush threat, in terms of draft capital, and in terms of FA $$$. If you're game is pure run stuffing, yeah, that's still nice, but you don't use top draft picks, or HUGE FA money on guys that have those limitations. I understand why you want it, but there are other far cheaper ways to address it in terms of draft capital and FA $$. If the belief is that he can't really get it done in terms of rushing the passer, he shouldn't be the pick, we can find run stuffing DT's in other and cheaper ways. 

 

It's just a terrible use of resources to allocate that kind of money, and that kind of draft capital with a player that limited. And I am not arguing that Vea is that limited, at this point, it's projection. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Kiper reading our thread again?

 

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Mel Kiper says on conference call that if the Redskins don't get Vea at pick 13, he wouldn't be surprised to see them take NC State DT B.J. Hill at 44.

[Panninho]

13 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

4th Round:

5. Sean Welsh --- has that Iowa big boy blood and could emerge as a starter even as a 4th rounder

6. Frank Ragnow --- graded as a Guard/Center combo ... got injured in 2017 but should be ready to go and was a top interior prospect going into 2017 season ... could be a 'typical' skins pick here in the 4th and immediately emerge as a starter at either spot

I honestly don't see Ragnow falling to the 4th round. I think he'll be a second or third round pick at worst. But if he falls, I'd love to pick him in the 4th.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

5 hours ago, Panninho said:

I honestly don't see Ragnow falling to the 4th round. I think he'll be a second or third round pick at worst. But if he falls, I'd love to pick him in the 4th.

I agree. I don't agree with a lot of Walter's rankings but was just using it as a basis, since the other comprehensive rating, CBSSports, is even more suspect.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I've been trying to put on paper what my mindset is with the draft. I think I've got it somewhat outlined now in a way that makes sense. Through the BPA/Needs hybrid approach, where you draft the best player in a "window" of players (unless one stud blue chipper is there that stands out) ... if you have enough positions that you can attack it safeguards you from making reaches (assuming you can't make a trade to a better spot). So in that vein, I've got a breakdown into 3 tiers of needs: Starters/Impact ... Starter/Depth ... and Depth/Upside ... and positions can fall into two categories when appropriate.

 

Starter/Impact: There's a current hole on the roster that could use a major upgrade or impact player

Starter/Depth: There isn't an immediate need to start but the right prospect could compete for a job or take a spot from a placeholder/average level starter but at the very least provide needed depth

Depth/Upside: These are positions that you could use depth at and might be able to take a flyer on a guy with upside who is raw, to stash on the back-end and groom for the long-term.

 

I'd associate Starter/Impact with Round 1-2 and possibly to include 3

I'd associate Starter/Depth with Round 2-4 and possibly 5

I'd associate Depth/Upside with Round 4-7 and UDFA

 

For 2018, here's what I currently have for the Redskins barring no additional major FA moves for starters/impact types (like a Hankins):

 

Starter/Impact: 1/3 Technique, RB, LG/C

Starter/Depth: ILB, CB, S

Depth/Upside: Edge, WR, OT, CB, S

[Dexter]

22 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

Settle's combine results were worse than expected in comparison to his peers.  I don't think he came across as an athletic freak but more as a poorly conditioned athlete.  Certainly it would be interesting to see how he might do with a year of intensive conditioning (nutrition and exercise) but that's the kind of guy that you take much lower than the 4th round.

I agree....Settle is dominant on film.  He looks like a baby Vince Wilfork.  If we are fortunate enough to get him in the 4th round then it would be a miracle.  

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

13 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I've been trying to put on paper what my mindset is with the draft. ...

 

 

For me the approach should always be BPAWR- Best Player Available Within Reason. 

 

NEVER window dress your board. Always trust it and the evaluation that's gone into forming it and take the best player available. But NOT out of what helps your football team. For example, Dallas taking a RB at 19, say Jones,, even if he was the BPA on their board, wouldn't be too clever with Zeke. 

 

You always need to go into a draft with an open mind too and be flexible to change as you're at the disposal of the draft. If you're set on 'We need x, y and z positional need, and that's what we MUST get!', you're not gonna' fair too well. 

 

Hail. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

For me the approach should always be BPAWR- Best Player Available Within Reason. 

 

Agreed. The more positions you have in Starter/Depth and Depth/Upside and fewer you have in Impact/Starter the better. Of course, anyone can use an impact at certain positions. I do think going into the draft with really only 3 positons in Impact/Starter is a decent position to be in. If we had our 3rd rounder, you'd essentially have 3-4 shots at those needs, increasing the chance that in each round there would be a highly ranked BPAWR player for each one.

[Dark Acre]

How do you measure the impact of a LG who is good at opening holes in the run game versus a NT who can stop the run and sort of generate a little heat in the passing game?  A true #1 WR versus a sideline-sideline ILB?  Football, more so than the other major sports, esp. baseball, is not easily reduceable to numbers.  You've got to have a discussion that involves words -- how people fit into your scheme and how their abilities translate on the field into victories.

[skinny21]

55 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Agreed. The more positions you have in Starter/Depth and Depth/Upside and fewer you have in Impact/Starter the better. Of course, anyone can use an impact at certain positions. I do think going into the draft with really only 3 positons in Impact/Starter is a decent position to be in. If we had our 3rd rounder, you'd essentially have 3-4 shots at those needs, increasing the chance that in each round there would be a highly ranked BPAWR player for each one.

I agree with this.  The need at those 3 positions is why I’m so interested in trading back to add a 2nd (or 3rd), or adding Hankins to the squad.  

 

As you’ve gone into previously, I’m also concerned about a run on backs occurring before our 2nd round pick, and the idea that a blue chip prospect falls and we then only have our 2nd to address the top 3 needs.  

 

Expanding on that - I’m intrigued by Michel and Johnson, but I’m not sold on them.  Guice and Grubb are the two backs I see having the biggest impact for the team, but they aren’t lasting to 44.  Penny could be a stud too, but lacking a 3rd, do we take him as high as 44?

 

For DT/NT, If we are left with taking one in the 4th or later... what if Settle, Hill and maybe a couple of others go before that?  

 

I think there’s a strong potential for missteps in the draft because of the above questions.  Might behoove the FO to remain flexible - possibly trading up and down in the 1st/2nd, but it’s gonna be tough/risky whatever decision they make.  This, and the decision to sign someone like Hankins or not, is even tougher because the FO is somewhat trapped between winning immediately and improving for the future.  They’ve walked that line ok up to now, but...

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

I agree....Settle is dominant on film.  He looks like a baby Vince Wilfork.  If we are fortunate enough to get him in the 4th round then it would be a miracle.  

I think Settle goes somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round.  

[The Consigliere]

Nice little piece on Vita Vea, they seem to believe he does have some pass rush upside, and really love him:

 

https://player.fm/series/draft-daily-pod/vita-vea-with-john-owning

 

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

Anyone have interest in Isaiah Oliver in a trade-back scenario in the 1st or in the 2nd?  I haven't looked at his film yet, only what I've seen in this video.