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2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread


Going Commando

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13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

.....

He also has a massive man crush on Michel saying his vision and cutting ability is almost in the same league as Barkley.

 

 

Presume he neglected to mention Michel's absolutely woeful fumbling stats? (Every 54.6 career offensive touches. Saying that Guice is bang average the top backs fumbling every 100.6 touches on average. What's that? Every 3/4 games?). 

 

Hail. 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Presume he neglected to mention Michel's absolutely woeful fumbling stats? (Every 54.6 career offensive touches. Saying that Guice is bang average the top backs fumbling every 100.6 touches on average. What's that? Every 3/4 games?). 

 

Hail. 

 

 

 

Actually ironically he did mention Michel as to his fumbling but said he improved on that front last season.  I didn't bother though to look if he's right.  He does like Guice and Barkley over Michel.  Chris Russell mentioned Michel and Chubb to him and Leyard just went to town gushing about Michel.

 

I personally don't have a strong opinion on the subject.  I think it was Casserly who said college fumbling issues can often be fixed in the pros, he citied a couple of examples of it -- forgot whom.  I know last draft season people were talking about Cook and Kamara's fumbling issues in college.  But yeah I think fumbling is a red flag because it could continue.  Alfred Morris fumbled a lot in college and that carried over some. 

 

I notice the Michel versus Chubb debate is a ferocious one on twitter.  If Keim is correct, his take on the Redskins FO's take on RB is:

 

1. Barkley

2. Guice

3. Chubb

Penny -- maybe

 

He doesn't think they dig Michel and Kerryon Johnson.

 

They did poke around Ronald Jones including doing a formal interview at the combine.  And Kyle Smith went to USC's pro day as opposed to Georgia's that took place the same day.  I thought I read somewhere R. Jones interviewed poorly (whatever that means?) -- not sure that was with the Redskins though.

 

I am curious about Jones speed when he finally runs sometime this month.  If he runs a 4.4 something, Id be hot on him. 

 

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Looking at my notes Michel did improve season-on-season- 

 

5 his sophomore. 

3 Junior

2. Senior. 

 

Still very high and the second worst the class that 54.6 touch average. I like him per se and have him as the #2 senior back. Very good player who does a bit of everything. But that gives me real pause. 

 

Certainly wouldn't touch him he first round. 44 would be really good value. But then I wouldn't touch any RB the first not called Barkley the quality depth in this class personally so yer know? Shrugs. 

 

Hail. 

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1 minute ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Certainly wouldn't touch him he first round. 44 would be really good value. But then I wouldn't touch any RB the first not called Barkley the quality depth in this class personally so yer know? Shrugs. 

 

Hail. 

 

I guess my only fear about the 2nd round is it seems like you might have the perfect storm of need and value going right before the Redskins pick at 44.  Keim mentioned the team is fearful of the same thing.

 

So you are in an odd place.  13 is too early for a RB.  But 44 might be a place where you are taking your 6th favorite RB. 

 

For me I still think we are going to get a drop of a player who is a stud where you have to take them versus trading down at 13.  So ultimately, I'd pull the trigger and do that and take my chances in the 2nd rd.    The downside to this is the next shot at DT is the 4th round or they can flip that idea and take a DT in the 2nd and go RB in the 4th.   Presuming this all unfolds where need meets BPA. 

 

But if that doesn't happen, I am not adverse to trading down, maybe even trading down twice and grabbing a RB before the possible rush before pick #44. 

 

I am still a BPA guy.  But it seems likely the BPA will match need.    However right now, I doubt BPA at 13 will be DT or RB.   

 

I don't trust this specific FO to find a good back in the 4th round or later.   

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I could happily take two backs I have a 4th Round grade on who may go anywhere between 3-5 that are solid every down backs this league IMHO so picking one at 44 wouldn't worry me at all. We're not talking significant drop-offs in quality. They've all got flaws in different areas. 

 

But that's just my opinion and I'm not them. 

 

Hail. 

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1 hour ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

I could happily take two backs I have a 4th Round grade on who may go anywhere between 3-5 that are solid every down backs this league IMHO so picking one at 44 wouldn't worry me at all. We're not talking significant drop-offs in quality. They've all got flaws in different areas. 

 

But that's just my opinion and I'm not them. 

 

Hail. 

 

Yeah I am OK with waiting for the 44th pick too.  I'd presume one guy is left among:  Michel, Chubb, R. Jones, Guice. Or if not I'd think it least Penny is still there or K. Johnson.

 

I don't really trust the FO to comb through the 4th round tier of players -- might be among Freeman, Wadley, Walton, Scarborough, Ballage  etc.  Are one of two of those guys likely going to be good?  Probably so.  Are the Redskins going to be the team that finds that guy?  You got me but I am not banking on it.

 

I like Hines but he's not a featured back type so I don't think they'd draft him.  He might be there in the 4th rd.   

 

Multiple times Keim said this is a worry of the Redskins that too many RBs will be gone by their 2nd round pick.  Nonetheless, I think if a stud lands at 13, you take the dude and take your chances.

 

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

A. Why be cute at the RB.  Take a guy early so you don't have to keep taking swings at this year after year.  You take one swing and you are done.

B.  if you are taking a RB early, he's not a fan of the by committee types.  Get a bonafide feature back

C.  The Redskins in the makeup of their roster would benefit more than anything by having a running game which they don't have now

D. You are wasting Alex Smith's talents if you don't give him a running game

E. Guice is the real deal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If one of the elite defensive guys is there at 13 ( Roquan Smith, James, Ward, Fitzpatrick, Vea) that’s my choice easily.

 

But if they are gone, can’t trade down, and we are looking at Payne, Davenport, Josh Jackson, Harold Landry, etc. I wouldn’t be that upset if we reach a few spots for Guice.

 

My reasoning is Guice is the only elite 1st round RB prospect (aside from Barkley) he won’t be there in the second,  and without our third we are going to miss out on most of the backs this year. If we pass on Guice I think our next chance will be Chubb and we’ll have to take him in the second, which I don’t like. 

 

I’m also hoping that the only reason we haven’t signed Hankins is we are planning to draft Vea (and see them as similar players). If we don’t get Vea, we plan to up our offer a few million and get Hankins.

 

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36 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m also hoping that the only reason we haven’t signed Hankins is we are planning to draft Vea (and see them as similar players). If we don’t get Vea, we plan to up our offer a few million and get Hankins.

 

I think Hankins is signed to a team before the draft.  Guessing.

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3 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

 

My reasoning is Guice is the only elite 1st round RB prospect (aside from Barkley) he won’t be there in the second,  and without our third we are going to miss out on most of the backs this year. If we pass on Guice I think our next chance will be Chubb and we’ll have to take him in the second, which I don’t like. 

 

I’m also hoping that the only reason we haven’t signed Hankins is we are planning to draft Vea (and see them as similar players). If we don’t get Vea, we plan to up our offer a few million and get Hankins.

 

 

Mark Bullock, WP just said it well if its the 2016 version of Guice, I got no issue with him at 13.  If its the 2017 version, I like that version of Guice too but he wasn't explosive that year.   So I'd be perfectly happy with Chubb, Michel, Jones or whomever falls to 44.

 

The 2016 version looked All Pro with some saying back then, he's better than Fournette.  If that's the 2018 version of him, I got not problem at all taking him at 13.  But I think they can trade down a little and recoup a pick.  I'd take a chance and trade down as far as 20 and if he's gone, he's gone.

 

 

Mark Bullock @MarkBullockNFL

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Mark Bullock Retweeted James Simpson

Guice in 2017 was really good and I’d be pretty content with him for the #Redskins at 13. But watched some 2016, before he was injured and he was phenomenal. He’s right up there for me as players I’d draft at 13

 

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I’m starting to think I like him more than both DTs

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7 hours ago, SkinsFanMania said:

 

I've thought this as well.   I like Roquan Smith, as he is quick to diagnose plays and plays sideline to sideline, but he also gets taken out of players pretty easily as well.  Has trouble getting off of blocks.  I feel he would do really well as an ILB if the team that drafted him had a good DL.  I feel Will could be the better fit for him, without question.  

 

I think Smith is an outstanding player, but my problem with him )as far as his fit with us) is that with his playing style and attributes he's pretty much a pure Mike ILB in a 3-4 IMO. A sideline to sideline guy who makes plays but rarely takes on blockers/stacks and sheds in the box...he isn't a thumper. We already have a guy like that in Zach Brown. What we really need is a good Jack ILB who will keep the Mike clean and let him make plays. Now, Brown does have the size to play that Jack role, but IMO if we picked Smith and forced Brown into that role he wouldn't be all that great at it as that really isn't his game. It would also be a waste of his talents. I'm guessing he would probably not be very happy about it and would want out pretty quickly. Then we'd have lost one of our better playmakers on D.

 

And I'm also still confused by the love for Payne. The guy has a really good burst off the line and great motor but doesn't do much with it. Has some decent pass rushing chops but never seems to actually make the plays. He gets too upright and doesn't seem to have many counter moves so if his first pass rush move is stymied he's basically done. He's also pretty easily taken out of plays by double teams it seems. Obviously stats aren't everything but for a guy you're thinking of taking at #13 overall as a 3 down D lineman who can stop the run and rush the passer his stats are awful. Very very few sacks and very few tackles for loss so even in the run game he doesn't actually get into the backfield and make the plays it seems.. People are talking about reuniting him and Allen. Take a look at Allen's stats then take a look at Payne's. Yeah. I don't think he'll be a poor player, I just think he'll be mediocre...high effort guy who will occasionally make a play but definitely not a game changer.

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Guice, 2016 version. Electric.  That guy at the time was compared to Barkley.  I guess I'd rely on the medical doctors as for his burst returning.  He was banged up last year.   The flip side to the discussion is does his running style just lend to him being banged up during his career.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plenty of this type of stuff BEFORE the 2017 season.

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/guice-vs-barkley-will-best-rb1-battle-nearly-decade/

Guice vs Barkley will be best RB1 battle in nearly a decade

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35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Guice, 2016 version. Electric.  That guy at the time was compared to Barkley.  I guess I'd rely on the medical doctors as for his burst returning.  He was banged up last year.   The flip side to the discussion is does his running style just lend to him being banged up during his career.

Wow! That dude is a baller. Not only is Guice outrunning everyone else no matter what angle the defenders have on him, he is also running through them. Hard to not think about pulling the trigger at our #13 pick or at least trade down to the low 20's if we have a willing partner and draft him there...

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37 minutes ago, CutPryorNow said:

Wow! That dude is a baller. Not only is Guice outrunning everyone else no matter what angle the defenders have on him, he is also running through them. Hard to not think about pulling the trigger at our #13 pick or at least trade down to the low 20's if we have a willing partner and draft him there...

 

Yeah indeed. If Guice is up to 2016 levels (don't know one way or another of course)  I'd take him at 13 in a heartbeat.  I do like Fitzpatrick and James over him if they fall.  I noticed the Ravens met with Guice recently and have seen him go to them in a recent mock at 16.  Maybe it doesn't mean anything but just using that example maybe 16 is the ceiling right now for where he could go besides our pick.

 

If Guice is in 2016 form - he runs often like Beast mode, feisty as heck, great balance, vision and has breakaway speed, too.   Also defenses played to shut down Guice with stacked boxes to stop the run -- more so than the other RB prospects from what I recall.  The dude also is a high character, leader type who plays with Garcon like spunk.   

 

To me it would be a home run if he's the 2016 edition.  The 2017 edition is good too -- but he didn't have the same explosion.  For me its the combination of his feistiness with the explosion that make him a top prospect.  But if he lost some of that explosion (some say its back now that he's fully healed), I don't think he's so special where you got to take him early over others.

 

I'll sum it up this way.  I know some people here and on twitter would have a beef if they took Guice at 13.  I wouldn't be one of those people.  I'd be good with it.  I just wouldn't be able to stand it if its Guice over Fitzpatrick and to a less extent James if they fall.   But Guice is tempting to me if some of my fav defensive prospects are gone but I'd risk trading down some.

 

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The Baltimore Ravens reportedly brought in LSU's Derrius Guice for a pre-draft visit Thursday, which will stir up the debate whether the team will take a running back at the No. 16 overall pick.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh and assistant general manager Eric DeCosta have both said this offseason that the team will consider drafting a running back even though it's not considered the most pressing need on offense. Baltimore has depth in the backfield with Alex Collins, Kenneth Dixon and Buck Allen, but the Ravens made it clear that they're not passing on an elite playmaker.

"If there’s a guy that we think is a special running back, a guy that can take a game over with his unique skill set, we’ll take that guy," DeCosta told the team's website at the Senior Bowl. "And there are some guys in the draft that can do that."

Guice is the consensus No. 2 running back in this draft behind Penn State's Saquon Barkley, who is projected to go in the top five picks. Guice's 6.5 yards per-carry average in a three-year career is the second highest in SEC history behind Bo Jackson's 6.6, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Given his "unique skill set," Guice has to intrigue the Ravens. He forced 35 missed tackles last season (fourth in college football, according to Pro Football Focus) despite dealing with an ankle injury. Over the last two seasons, Guice has produced 974 yards after contact, which is just 12 yards fewer than Barkley.

 

...Guice was slowed throughout last season due to his injured ankle, which will probably get examined by the Ravens' trainers and doctors.

During a fully healthy 2016 season, Guice outplayed teammate Leonard Fournette, who was the No. 4 overall pick last year. That season, he produced 15 or more yards on 12.9 percent of his carries.

Guice would provide the edge, physicality and playmaking ability that the Ravens desperately need on offense. His running style would suit the AFC North, although Guice acknowledges he isn't an expert on this division.

http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/43587/beast-mode-redux-ravens-bring-in-derrius-guice-for-pre-draft-visit

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Yeah, watching Guice's 2017 tape and 2016 tape you can tell the difference. In 2017 he was a really good RB. In 2016 he was an absolute game changer. Problem is that even if he checks out medically that doesn't necessarily mean he'll ever be the same guy he was in 2016. But his good but not 2016 level 2017 season could be a blessing in disguise if he IS back to the same guy. It's a gamble. 

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8 hours ago, mistertim said:

Yeah, watching Guice's 2017 tape and 2016 tape you can tell the difference. In 2017 he was a really good RB. In 2016 he was an absolute game changer. Problem is that even if he checks out medically that doesn't necessarily mean he'll ever be the same guy he was in 2016. But his good but not 2016 level 2017 season could be a blessing in disguise if he IS back to the same guy. It's a gamble. 

 

Yeah agree.  And I'd lean that he's more likely back to 2016 considering the injuries weren't the fatal type of ones.  Nonetheless, that's the mystery and agree gamble.  

 

Jeremiah's take before the 2017 season.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000816965/article/first-look-scouting-lsu-rb-derrius-guice

Biggest takeaway: Penn State's Saquon Barkley is going to enter the 2017 CFB season as the top running back in the country, but Guice belongs in his company. He's an explosive runner with excellent balance and a tenacious style. He isn't quite as powerful as his former teammate Fournette, but he has a little more wiggle and elusiveness. I see a little bit of LaDainian Tomlinson in his running style, but he really reminds me of a young Frank Gore. He's a tough guy to get on the ground.

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Guice always says that he models his game after Beast Mode and his 2016 tape actually really does remind me of Lynch's college tape...his burst, lateral agility, vision and of course violent running style. Barkley reminds me of LT with his absolutely ludicrous change of direction, footwork, and juking ability combined with his vision,

 

If Guice is going to be back to his 2016 self I'd have zero issues taking him at 16 because he'd likely be a game changer. However, I have to admit that I'm a bit worried about his longevity with his running style. That said Beast Mode is still going strong after 10 years in the league.

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Here’s an added factor with Guice - he wasn’t used much in the passing game.  I think he projects to perform quite well in that department - he’s got the speed, elusiveness, and toughness.  If that’s the case, I have to wonder if he’s actually an even better prospect than the tape shows.  Especially in an offense that will utilize him as a passing weapon as well.  

 

 

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makes sense to me below that the idea is if they trade down, going early at RB including round 1 is heavily on the table. 

http://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/separating-fact-fiction-redskins-search-running-back

The Redskins do like Derrius Guice, likely the second running back off the board later this month in Dallas. And certainly the 'Skins like Saquon Barkley, but the crazy talented Penn State product won't last to 13. Plenty of other names are intriguing, perhaps none more so than Sony Michel, but don't overlook his college teammate Nick Chubb either. Players like Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny have some brand value, but don't sleep on Auburn workhorse Kerryon Johnson.

Point being that the running back crop is deep, and while the Redskins don't hold a third round pick after the Alex Smith trade, Bruce Allen made clear the team would like to move back in the draft. 

Should the Redskins move back, later into the first or get more picks in the second, then a running back early begins to make sense. If the Redskins gain a third-round pick, then it certainly starts to look like the team could add an RB. 

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/4/2/17187380/2018-nfl-mock-draft-quenton-nelson-bradley-chubb-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

Another mock with Fitzpatrick lasting to 13 and beyond.

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