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2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread


Going Commando

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24 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Would love if Barkley and Guice go top 10.  More defensive talent falling means we could get one of the guys we really want and possibly acquire more picks by trading back.

How do you know who we "really" want?:)

 

I mean Guice just might be who we really want.

 

With this FO prepare for the unexpected.

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Here's my Mock Draft 1.0 with Trades:

 

Round 1 Team Pick Value Trades
Pick 1 Cleveland (1) Sam Darnold, QB USC 3000  
Pick 2 *Buffalo Josh Allen, QB Wyoming 2600 *Buffalo trades 1.12, 1.22, 3.1 and 2019 1st rounder to NYG for 1.2
Pick 3 NY Jets Josh Rosen, QB UCLA 2200  
Pick 4 *Miami Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma 1800 *Miami sends 1.11 and 2.10 and 2019 1st Round pick to CLE for 1.4
Pick 5 Denver Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame 1700  
Pick 6 Indianapolis Bradley Chubb, DE NC State 1600  
Pick 7 Tampa Bay Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State 1500  
Pick 8 Chicago Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama 1400  
Pick 9 San Francisco Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama 1350  
Pick 10 Oakland Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia 1300  
Pick 11 *Cleveland (2) Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan 1250  
Pick 12 *NY Giants (1) Harold Landry, Edge Boston College 1200  
Pick 13 *LA Chargers Derwin James, S Florida State 1150 *LA Chargers send 1.17 and 3.20 and 4.19 to WAS for 1.13 and 5.26
Pick 14 Green Bay Tremaine Edmunds, LB Va. Tech 1100  
Pick 15 Arizona Connor Williams, OT Texas 1050  
Pick 16 Baltimore D.J. Moore, WR Maryland 1000  
Pick 17 *Washington Derrius Guice, RB LSU 950  
Pick 18 Seattle Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State 900  
Pick 19 Dallas Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama 875  
Pick 20 *Atlanta Vita Vea, NT Washington 850 *Atlanta sends 1.26 and 3.26 to Detroit for 1.20
Pick 21 Cincinnati Isaiah Wynn, G/C/T Georgia 800  
Pick 22 *NY Giants (2) Billy Price, C/G Ohio State 780  
Pick 23 *NY Giants (3) Courtland Sutton, WR SMU 760 *NYG trade WR Odell Beckham, Jr. to LA Rams for 1.23
Pick 24 Carolina James Daniels, G/C Iowa 740  
Pick 25 Tennessee Marcus Davenport, Edge UTSA 720  
Pick 26 *Detroit Taven Bryan, DT Florida 700  
Pick 27 New Orleans Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville 680  
Pick 28 Pittsburgh Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State 660  
Pick 29 *Cleveland (3) Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame 640 *Cleveland sends 2.10 and 2.32 to JAX for 1.29
Pick 30 Minnesota Will Hernandez, OG UTEP 620  
Pick 31 New England Kolton Miller, OT UCLA 600  
Pick 32 Philadelphia Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma 590  
         
Round 2 Team   Value  
Pick 1 Cleveland (1) Rashaan Evans, OLB Alabama 580  
Pick 2 NY Giants Sony Michel, RB Georgia 560  
Pick 3 Cleveland (2) Ronnie Harrison, FS Alabama 550  
Pick 4 Indianapolis Josh Jackson, CB Iowa 540  
Pick 5 Indianapolis (2) Leighton Vander Esch, OLB Boise St. 530  
Pick 6 Tampa Bay Mike Hughes, CB UCF 520  
Pick 7 Chicago Malik Jefferson, LB Texas 510  
Pick 8 Denver Mike Gisecki, TE Penn State 500  
Pick 9 New England (1) Dallas Goedert, TE SDSU 490  
Pick 10 *Jacksonville (1) Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma 480  
Pick 11 Oakland Ronald Jones II, RB USC 470  
Pick 12 Washington Frank Ragnow, C/G Arkansas 460  
Pick 13 Green Bay Justin Reid, S Stanford 450  
Pick 14 Cincinnati Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Edge Oklahoma 440  
Pick 15 Arizona Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado 430  
Pick 16 LA Chargers Braden Smith, G Auburn 420  
Pick 17 Indianapolis Nick Chubb, RB Georgia 410  
Pick 18 Dallas Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M 400  
Pick 19 Detroit Rashaad Penny, RB SDSU 390  
Pick 20 Baltimore Jamarco Jones, OT Ohio State 380  
Pick 21 Buffalo (1) Carlton Davis, CB Auburn 370  
Pick 22 Kansas City Uchenna Nwosu, OLB USC 360  
Pick 23 Buffalo (2) James Washington, WR Oklahoma St. 350  
Pick 24 Carolina Jessie Bates, FS Wake Forest 340  
Pick 25 Tennessee Tim Settle, NT Va. Tech 330  
Pick 26 Atlanta Anthony Miller, WR Memphis 320  
Pick 27 San Francisco Austin Corbett, G/C Nevada 310  
Pick 28 Pittsburgh Marcus Allen, FS Penn State 300  
Pick 29 Jacksonville (2) Lorenzo Carter, LB Georgia 292  
Pick 30 Minnesota Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville 284  
Pick 31 New England (2) Harrison Phillips, DT Stanford 276  
Pick 32 *Jacksonville (3) Donte Jackson, CB LSU 270  
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I love Guice, but my main issue with the pick is the fact that we would be getting terrible relative value over the next 5 years.

 

For example, Zeke and Jalen Ramsey are both top 5 players at their position.  Based on talent alone, you could argue that either Zeke (ignoring the off-the-field stuff) or Ramsey was the right pick for the Cowboys at #4 in 2016.  That there was no wrong pick.  However, that extremely underrates the value you get from having Ramsey under contract for 5 years vs. having Zeke under contract:

 

Zeke is the 7th highest paid RB in the league.  That is pretty good value for a top 5 back.

 

Ramsey is the 30th highest paid CB in the league. That is unbelievable value for a top 5 CB.  It's a huge reason the Jags are able to pay Calais Campbell, AJ Bouye, and the other studs on that defense so much going forward.  That is the kind of value that leads to Superbowls.  Just ask the 2013 Seahawks.  IMO, the Jags hurt themselves last year by drafting Fournette (who is the 5th highest paid RB btw) at 4 rather than just drafting Deshaun Watson or Mahomes in the 1st and drafting a RB like Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Cook, or Mixon later in the draft.  They'd be SB favorites this year.

 

RB is the one position where it's better to get a guy in FA on his second contract than it is to get in the 1st round of the draft.  That is because you probably end up paying less for the FA over the life of the contract than you do a first round draft pick.  RB is pretty much the only position where that is the case.  If you can't find a FA RB, then you're better off drafting one on Day 2.  It's all about value when trying to build a consistent SB contender under the salary cap.

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We've been trying to go "value" with picks at RB for years and it has worked like **** for us. I'd much rather take a stud like Guice at 13 than roll the dice again on another 2nd-4th round prospect and possibly ending up with another JAG.

 

And elite RBs who are still young and in their prime rarely hit the open market so you'd likely have to give up picks and trade for one. Usually when they do hit FA it's when they've lost a step and are starting to decline. I'd rather draft our own stud personally. I think Guice is a better value at 13 as a potential game changing bell cow RB than a guy like Vea who may just end up as a rotational DL guy, even if he ends up being good in the NFL (IMO that's a question mark).

 

However, if Fitz is there at 13 (and IMO James as well) they would be hard to pass up because both of them could be game changers as well at the next level. That would be a tough call. Just depends on their board I guess.

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@mistertim Other than Matt Jones, the last time we drafted a running back on Day 2 was Ladell Betts in 2002.  I'm not pushing for us to ignore the position on Day 2 and wait until the 4th round to draft a RB.  We'll just end up with plodders like Perine or injury prone role players like CT (though I love the player).  I think if you can't find a RB in FA, you should try to find a premier talent that falls to the 2nd or 3rd round.  Matt Jones was not a premier talent; David Johnson was drafted earlier in that same round though and is obviously a top 5 RB in the league.  Some of the RBs that fall to the 2nd and 3rd round of this draft will be premier talents as well.  I would rather get a position that is excellent value for us in the 1st like FS or CB (even interior DL is better value than RB), and then draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd if we can acquire a 3rd round pick.

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@HTTRDynastyTrue, but you're still taking a chance on that second or third tier of RBs. It mostly seems to be a crap shoot: sometimes you get lucky and end up with a David Johnson, sometimes you get unlucky and end up with a Matt Jones; sometimes you end up with a Kamara, sometimes you end up with a Perine.

 

Now, obviously a 1st round RB is going to be a bit of a crap shoot as well as there's no such thing as a sure thing but you're much more likely to get it right with a tier 1 guy like Barkley or Guice (yeah, considering Guice's 2016 tape when he wasn't playing hurt I put him in the same category as Barkley all day). I'm just sick of whiffing on RBs, whether it be 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round guys. I'd take him at 13 over guys who I consider iffy prospects in Vea and Payne all day.

 

I just don't see Vea or Payne as game changers at the next level, but that's personal opinion; I think what they would bring to this defense could definitely be found later in the draft. Now if other guys fell to us who I DO think could be game changers at the next level (Fitz, James, Nelson, to a certain extent Smith though I'm not sure how well he'd fit with Brown) then you have a serious conundrum.

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@mistertim I feel your pain/frustration.  I really do.  I'm tempted to take Guice at 13 too, if only because of the lack of faith I have in the FO to find a premier talent in a later round.  But if the goal is a Superbowl, and it better be or else why the hell do we even root for this team, then you have to really be cognizant of salary cap management and the relative value between players.  Give me a Jalen Ramsey or a Joey Bosa over Zeke any day.  Or give me a Marshon Lattimore or Deshaun Watson or Jonathan Allen over Leonard Fournette.  Or, in this case, a Ward or Fitzpatrick or James or Vea over Guice.  Not because they are more talented than the RB's, but because of the relative value that allows you to spend more money on studs in FA, or gives you the ability to re-sign your own FAs.  Again, this is how I would manage a team if the goal is to win a Superbowl.

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While I like Guice a lot, picking an RB that high, is just a luxury this team can't afford right now.  One reason is that they are high on Thompson and we can expect they are going to try and get him on the field as much as possible.

 

The second is we were getting embarrassed against the run last year.  They had neglected D-line for too long in the draft and they now they know it more then ever.   Allen was great but obviously he was not enough.

Even if they sign Hankins, they still need more depth and more strength up front IMO.

 

If i were them I would want Payne. 

Big, strong, young, NFL ready, versatile enough to play nose.  Alabama Alum.

Just fits too perfect.  

 

Hopefully they can trade back and still get him, then try and get an RB or G higher in the second, that would be ideal. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Ugh, I give Payne a 2nd round grade, tops. I would be unenthused but OK with Vea at 13 because, while I have some issues with his film, I do recognize that he does get it done, even if he plays hot and cold sometimes and really needs to work on his leverage and hand work. Payne, on the other hand, I would be pretty upset with as I see zero reason for the hype. Good initial burst, very high motor, good athleticism, but doesn't do anything with it. Pretty much never actually gets into the backfield to make plays (an incredibly paltry number of sacks and TFL in his college career); he gets some pressures occasionally but never seems to be able to actually finish. Gets taken out of plays routinely by double teams, if his first pass rush move or attempt to penetrate gets stymied he's basically finished and out of the play as he seems to have no counter moves, plays too upright, etc. I see him as a decent rotational guy in the NFL. Definitely not a game changer. Probably an ok value in the 2nd. Pass at 13 overall.

 

I could be wrong, but just going on what I've seen in watching his film and in his stats. If you watch Allen and look at his stats and you watch Payne and look his stats they are simply on different planets.

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11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Ugh, I give Payne a 2nd round grade, tops. I would be unenthused but OK with Vea at 13 because, while I have some issues with his film, I do recognize that he does get it done, even if he plays hot and cold sometimes and really needs to work on his leverage and hand work. Payne, on the other hand, I would be pretty upset with as I see zero reason for the hype. Good initial burst, very high motor, good athleticism, but doesn't do anything with it. Pretty much never actually gets into the backfield to make plays (an incredibly paltry number of sacks and TFL in his college career); he gets some pressures occasionally but never seems to be able to actually finish. Gets taken out of plays routinely by double teams, if his first pass rush move or attempt to penetrate gets stymied he's basically finished and out of the play as he seems to have no counter moves, plays too upright, etc. I see him as a decent rotational guy in the NFL. Definitely not a game changer. Probably an ok value in the 2nd. Pass at 13 overall.

 

I could be wrong, but just going on what I've seen in watching his film and in his stats. If you watch Allen and look at his stats and you watch Payne and look his stats they are simply on different planets.

That is a pretty thorough analysis.  Thanks.

 

You might be right about the value, my research is admittedly thin.  

 

What really stood out to me is what he does against the run.  He has the strength to hold his ground and athletic enough to make tackles while engaged. 

Plus he's young and coming from a solid program.  He might be 1-2 years younger then  Allen was?  There is a lot of potential. 

 

If he is not close to the bpa when they pick I hope another D-lineman with similar attributes is, because this team needs to get young, strong, and athletic up front.  We were not just last in rushing against opposing RB's.   Qb's like Wentz and Dak were too agile, and ran around our front all day, making plays on the ground AND in the air.       

 

We really need answers there.

 

If your right about the value, a trade back to get him would be a lot better.

That would still be my ideal scenario

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1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

This is a strange year. We're about three weeks out and there is still no consensus at the top. Its going to be a crazy draft.

 

True.

 

Last year, the Redskins were able to get what many thought was one of the best defensive players in the draft in Johnathan Allen because there was a run of QBs and WRs at the top of the draft that allowed Allen to slide.

 

This year, many believe there may be another run on QBs (and maybe RBs?) that will once again allow blue-chip defensive talent to slide.

 

However, you never know. This year, there might be a run on defensive talent at the top of the draft. :) 

 

We'll find out three weeks from Thursday..

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To add to the lovefest on Guice.  I got to stop posting about him, I hate getting attached to prospects. :)

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000924535/article/book-on-derrius-guice-steelers-seahawks-jets-fit-lsu-rb

What I'm hearing

 

"I think he's the best runner in the draft. He's not the best overall player at the position, but as a runner, it's hard to find a better one in this class. From his balance, body control, explosiveness and strength, he can do it all with the ball in his hands. ... He finishes his runs violently and repeatedly runs through contract. That's exactly what you want your top running backs to do." -- NFC personnel director

 

..."Don't waste your time on 2017 film because he wasn't even back up to his top speed until the bowl game. He will be the same player he was in 2016. If you had a grade on him after last year, you should use that." -- LSU assistant coach

 

...After looking at the All-22 coaches' tape, I believe there are so many impressive parts to Guice's game. From his rugged running style to his outstanding strength, power and body control, he's built to grind it out between the tackles as a workhorse. He displays the toughness, violence and explosiveness to run through tacklers in the hole while also flashing enough wiggle and elusiveness to slip into creases on inside runs. Although he didn't show as much explosiveness or home-run potential in 2017 due to a nagging injury, he has enough burst and acceleration to take it the distance when he gets to the second level. Looking back at Guice's 2016 film (see Texas A&M and Arkansas), he has more than enough juice to rack up runs of 10 yards or more when he spots a crack in the defense.

 

To that point, I believe Guice's performance in 2017 not only speaks volumes about his overall toughness and grit but also confirms his ability to thrive as a potential workhorse at the next level. Despite lacking his normal burst and explosiveness, Guice continued to post solid games as a RB1 due to his rugged game and persistence. Guice's stamina, endurance and violent finishing skills stood out on tape as he shouldered a heavy workload as the Tigers' No. 1 offensive option without his A-game for most of the season. With that in mind, I believe we could see a more dynamic and explosive version of Guice as a pro, which should lead to more production and an even greater impact as a RB1.

 

n the passing game, Guice didn't get a lot of touches as a receiver (32 career receptions) but he displays soft hands and adequate route-running skills. Although he's at his best snagging screens or flat passes out of the backfield, he appears to have enough quickness and craftiness to be an integral part of the passing game on option routes. If given more opportunities as a receiver, Guice could be a consistent 50-catch guy as a pro based on his hands and skill.

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3 hours ago, CurseReversed said:

While I like Guice a lot, picking an RB that high, is just a luxury this team can't afford right now.  One reason is that they are high on Thompson and we can expect they are going to try and get him on the field as much as possible.

 

 

 

 

 

Disagree. A stud rb is a necessity, not a luxury. Barring serious injury, we'd have a guaranteed 1000 yard rusher every year for the next 5 to 7 years.

Look at the cowgirls. With a good oline and rb, they were able to win 13 games with a stiff like Prescott at qb. Their weaksauce defense looked great because the offense had the ball so much. They did the same thing with Murray as well, 13 games I believe. Smith needs a good running game to be really really effective.

 

Guice has to be the pick at 13. I'd be willing to bet on it. He will mask many defensive deficiencies, and hopefully help prevent injuries from the defense not being on the field as much.

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5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's my Mock Draft 1.0 with Trades:

 

Round 1 Team Pick Value Trades
Pick 1 Cleveland (1) Sam Darnold, QB USC 3000  
Pick 2 *Buffalo Josh Allen, QB Wyoming 2600 *Buffalo trades 1.12, 1.22, 3.1 and 2019 1st rounder to NYG for 1.2
Pick 3 NY Jets Josh Rosen, QB UCLA 2200  
Pick 4 *Miami Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma 1800 *Miami sends 1.11 and 2.10 and 2019 1st Round pick to CLE for 1.4
Pick 5 Denver Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame 1700  
Pick 6 Indianapolis Bradley Chubb, DE NC State 1600  
Pick 7 Tampa Bay Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State 1500  
Pick 8 Chicago Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama 1400  
Pick 9 San Francisco Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama 1350  
Pick 10 Oakland Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia 1300  
Pick 11 *Cleveland (2) Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan 1250  
Pick 12 *NY Giants (1) Harold Landry, Edge Boston College 1200  
Pick 13 *LA Chargers Derwin James, S Florida State 1150 *LA Chargers send 1.17 and 3.20 and 4.19 to WAS for 1.13 and 5.26
Pick 14 Green Bay Tremaine Edmunds, LB Va. Tech 1100  
Pick 15 Arizona Connor Williams, OT Texas 1050  
Pick 16 Baltimore D.J. Moore, WR Maryland 1000  
Pick 17 *Washington Derrius Guice, RB LSU 950  
Pick 18 Seattle Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State 900  
Pick 19 Dallas Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama 875  
Pick 20 *Atlanta Vita Vea, NT Washington 850 *Atlanta sends 1.26 and 3.26 to Detroit for 1.20
Pick 21 Cincinnati Isaiah Wynn, G/C/T Georgia 800  
Pick 22 *NY Giants (2) Billy Price, C/G Ohio State 780  
Pick 23 *NY Giants (3) Courtland Sutton, WR SMU 760 *NYG trade WR Odell Beckham, Jr. to LA Rams for 1.23
Pick 24 Carolina James Daniels, G/C Iowa 740  
Pick 25 Tennessee Marcus Davenport, Edge UTSA 720  
Pick 26 *Detroit Taven Bryan, DT Florida 700  
Pick 27 New Orleans Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville 680  
Pick 28 Pittsburgh Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State 660  
Pick 29 *Cleveland (3) Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame 640 *Cleveland sends 2.10 and 2.32 to JAX for 1.29
Pick 30 Minnesota Will Hernandez, OG UTEP 620  
Pick 31 New England Kolton Miller, OT UCLA 600  
Pick 32 Philadelphia Orlando Brown, OT Oklahoma 590  
         
Round 2 Team   Value  
Pick 1 Cleveland (1) Rashaan Evans, OLB Alabama 580  
Pick 2 NY Giants Sony Michel, RB Georgia 560  
Pick 3 Cleveland (2) Ronnie Harrison, FS Alabama 550  
Pick 4 Indianapolis Josh Jackson, CB Iowa 540  
Pick 5 Indianapolis (2) Leighton Vander Esch, OLB Boise St. 530  
Pick 6 Tampa Bay Mike Hughes, CB UCF 520  
Pick 7 Chicago Malik Jefferson, LB Texas 510  
Pick 8 Denver Mike Gisecki, TE Penn State 500  
Pick 9 New England (1) Dallas Goedert, TE SDSU 490  
Pick 10 *Jacksonville (1) Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma 480  
Pick 11 Oakland Ronald Jones II, RB USC 470  
Pick 12 Washington Frank Ragnow, C/G Arkansas 460  
Pick 13 Green Bay Justin Reid, S Stanford 450  
Pick 14 Cincinnati Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Edge Oklahoma 440  
Pick 15 Arizona Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado 430  
Pick 16 LA Chargers Braden Smith, G Auburn 420  
Pick 17 Indianapolis Nick Chubb, RB Georgia 410  
Pick 18 Dallas Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M 400  
Pick 19 Detroit Rashaad Penny, RB SDSU 390  
Pick 20 Baltimore Jamarco Jones, OT Ohio State 380  
Pick 21 Buffalo (1) Carlton Davis, CB Auburn 370  
Pick 22 Kansas City Uchenna Nwosu, OLB USC 360  
Pick 23 Buffalo (2) James Washington, WR Oklahoma St. 350  
Pick 24 Carolina Jessie Bates, FS Wake Forest 340  
Pick 25 Tennessee Tim Settle, NT Va. Tech 330  
Pick 26 Atlanta Anthony Miller, WR Memphis 320  
Pick 27 San Francisco Austin Corbett, G/C Nevada 310  
Pick 28 Pittsburgh Marcus Allen, FS Penn State 300  
Pick 29 Jacksonville (2) Lorenzo Carter, LB Georgia 292  
Pick 30 Minnesota Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville 284  
Pick 31 New England (2) Harrison Phillips, DT Stanford 276  
Pick 32 *Jacksonville (3) Donte Jackson, CB LSU 270  

I think 17 is too high for Guice but the scenario you have with Vea slipping to 20 would be fantastic in my mind.  Would love to see Vea as the pick.  Like others have echoed I think a better scenario is picking a RB later in the draft.  I’m also surprised you see three TE drafted before Hurst.  I think he would be a great option in the second round for Washington.  I do think Ragnow is a player.  Wouldn’t argue with him as the pick.  Do you project Ragnow as the center or do you see him at guard with Roullier continuing as center?

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