2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

Taylor gives them the chance to take a Allen and groom him. Allen needs work tho so I dont think he goes top 3. Browns could go Barkley and then take Allen at 4 or whoever is left between Darnols and Rosen 

 

I agree with this, and likely what they'll do.  If I draft a QB #1 overall, I want him playing, so if the browns did that anyway, I'd be beyond confused.

[HigSkin]

This is just silly.....

 

 

http://blacksportsonline.com/home/2018/04/nfl-teams-are-saying-rb-derrius-guice-has-a-character-issue-because-hes-too-silly-lumping-him-in-with-accused-rapists-credit-car-scammers-before-draft/

 

NFL Teams Are Saying RB Derrius Guice Has a “Character Issue” Because He’s Too Silly

[Going Commando]

30 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Even after trading for Taylor?  If I was them, I'd use that first pick on Brakley since they are so bad at picking QBs.  That way they'll have a generational talent RB regardless of the QB.

 

If I were them I'd trade from 4 to 2 and pick Barkley first and Mayfield second.  One of these picks needs to be a long term QB.  Tyrod Taylor is a journeyman stopgap.

[nonniey]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Pick 13 is up and Derwin James is there. Pats call and offer 1.31, 2.11 and 3.31. You take it, right? Mock drafted Guice, Ragnow and Phillips in that scenario before going *Terrell Edmunds and JC Jackson in 3/4

That wouldn't be enough. I'd expect to get 2ds if we're moving down that far. 

24 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

This is just silly.....

 

 

http://blacksportsonline.com/home/2018/04/nfl-teams-are-saying-rb-derrius-guice-has-a-character-issue-because-hes-too-silly-lumping-him-in-with-accused-rapists-credit-car-scammers-before-draft/

 

NFL Teams Are Saying RB Derrius Guice Has a “Character Issue” Because He’s Too Silly

That is a foolish reason to downgrade him. It just means humor is big part of his personality and humor in no way has an effect on competitiveness. 

[mistertim]

All the Guice bull**** is just more proof to me that most of the scouting "industry" is 95% groupthink. That and Payne getting so much love.

[JCB]

I dunno, dude. Silly RBs actually never succeed in the NFL.

 

 

[fordranger76]

Skins are totally the ones saying he is too silly and getting that message out there big time. They want him to drop as far as they can trade back to pick him up.

[Mannix]

I don’t know much about Guice but this “he likes to play video games therefore he’s a character risk” is just gms and scouts planting crap in their pet media outlets to drop his value so he will be drafted by said scouts/gms.

Wow Fordranger we think alike

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, mistertim said:

That and Payne getting so much love.

The groupthink on Payne getting love seems very Redskins centric (if its not a smoke screen).  You got some draft geeks kicking him now into the 2nd round

[goskins10]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I might take the trade for James, not sure about Fitzpatrick.  But maybe.

 

The quandary for me in this draft is you likely either get:

A. Stud like Fitzpatrick or James at 13

B. Landing none of the big 5 RBs (Guice, Jones, Michel, Chubb, Penny) or maybe Penny

 

or

A. A stud doesn't land at 13 or you trade the pick regardless

B. Likely get one of the top RBs but might not get one of the top DTs.

 

 

edit

Source: Denver Post

Apr 22 - 1:08 PM

 

And this is why I took Guice in our mock draft at 26. He may fall to the top of the 2nd rd but not making it to 44. I personally like him a lot more than any of the other RBs with the exception of Barkley who is never falling to us at 13. There is suddenly a lot of love for Michel who has done nothing since the combine to deserve it. Every year someone starts raising on peoples boards in kind of draft geek frenzy. I still see him as a mid to late 2nd rd back.  

 

I would take Fitzpatrick at 13 if he is there. Otherwise, out of the players likely to be there at 13 besides him - barring something crazy happening like last year with Allen - I like trading down and picking up at least a 3rd or hopefully a 2nd. You still get a solid back and a DT and likely another potential starter, especially if you get a 2nd. 

[Going Commando]

Fanbase is getting married to Guice and rationalizing away the information that's coming out about teams having concerns about his maturity and readiness for the NFL.  I understand because I've been there time and time again.  Being mature enough to handle the NFL isn't just about staying out of trouble.  It sounds an awful lot like Guice is a developmentally-stunted manchild who is going to need his hand held at the next level in order to succeed.  He can be the sweetest kid in the world and that kind of assessment is still a big red flag because NFL teams simply aren't going to hand-hold a high maintenance kid who isn't ready for the league.  I love the talent he showed in that 2016 tape but couple the maturity issues with his unimpressive 2017 film and this kid is a massive risk in the first round.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, goskins10 said:

 

And this is why I took Guice in our mock draft at 26. He may fall to the top of the 2nd rd but not making it to 44. I personally like him a lot more than any of the other RBs with the exception of Barkley who is never falling to us at 13. There is suddenly a lot of love for Michel who has done nothing since the combine to deserve it. Every year someone starts raising on peoples boards in kind of draft geek frenzy. I still see him as a mid to late 2nd rd back.  

 

I would take Fitzpatrick at 13 if he is there. Otherwise, out of the players likely to be there at 13 besides him - barring something crazy happening like last year with Allen - I like trading down and picking up at least a 3rd or hopefully a 2nd. You still get a solid back and a DT and likely another potential starter, especially if you get a 2nd. 

 

Agree with all of this except I like Michel more than you do.  But yeah if the draft rumors about interest in RBs is real -- its the perfect storm to lose out on the top 6 RBs at 44.  Found it ironic that people around Denver are suggesting they might have to trade up from 40 to land one of the backs.

 

That's why trading down and taking a RB allows you to not only avoid the problem in the 2nd round but you also likely get in the front of the line or close enough to get who you want.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Fanbase is getting married to Guice and rationalizing away the information that's coming out about teams having concerns about his maturity and readiness for the NFL.  I understand because I've been there time and time again.  Being mature enough to handle the NFL isn't just about staying out of trouble.  It sounds an awful lot like Guice is a developmentally-stunted manchild who is going to need his hand held at the next level in order to succeed.  He can be the sweetest kid in the world and that kind of assessment is still a big red flag because NFL teams simply aren't going to hand-hold a high maintenance kid who isn't ready for the league.  I love the talent he showed in that 2016 tape but couple the maturity issues with his unimpressive 2017 film and this kid is a massive risk in the first round.

 

I have news for you - they are virtually all high maintenance. This kid worked his tail off and played injured much of the season. He got himself back to close to 100% in time for the bowl game in which he played very much like he did in 2016. This is stuff that gets leaked about this time to drive a players value down for a team tat wants him but does not have a high enough draft pick. 

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

41 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Fanbase is getting married to Guice and rationalizing away the information that's coming out about teams having concerns about his maturity and readiness for the NFL.  I understand because I've been there time and time again.  Being mature enough to handle the NFL isn't just about staying out of trouble.  It sounds an awful lot like Guice is a developmentally-stunted manchild who is going to need his hand held at the next level in order to succeed.  He can be the sweetest kid in the world and that kind of assessment is still a big red flag because NFL teams simply aren't going to hand-hold a high maintenance kid who isn't ready for the league.  I love the talent he showed in that 2016 tape but couple the maturity issues with his unimpressive 2017 film and this kid is a massive risk in the first round.

 

I think any team that takes a RB not called Barkley in the first in a RB class THIS deep is getting poor value for their pick personally. 

 

Hail. 

[skinny21]

25 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

I think any team that takes a RB not called Barkley in the first in a RB class THIS deep is getting poor value for their pick personally. 

 

Hail. 

I totally get the sentiment.  I look at it situationally though.  If a team wanted to add a back, getting one in the 1st doesn’t make much sense value-wise.  Sure, most of the later backs have more question marks, but you have a legit chance at finding a good one given the depth of the class.  On the other hand, if you are a team like the Skins that desperately needs a good back (especially one that offers things your current top backs are lacking), you’re better off taking one of the top guys.  For us, waiting until our 2nd pick likely means the top 4 are gone, and we’re likely left hoping a later guy can fill the need.  

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

27 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

.....  For us, waiting until our 2nd pick likely means the top 4 are gone, and we’re likely left hoping a later guy can fill the need.  

 

 

For me there's 2 things to that. 

 

We don't have the line to begin with to accommodate a top back. Barkley's good. But he's no Zeke. And the latter wouldn't be half as successful in Washington for me as he is n Dallas. 

 

And I just don't personally see that significant a drop off from two- four (presume we're talking Guice/ Jones/ Johnson) as you go down compared to other, real thin groups like FS, OL, 3-tech under DT's etc. to justify it. 

 

Hail. 

 

*Edit* Nor do I trust our offensive staff to utilize a top back fully regardless. But that's less of an issue as I'll be surprised if they're back this time next year but that's for a future discussion. 

[skinny21]

18 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

For me there's 2 things to that. 

 

We don't have the line to begin with to accommodate a top back. Barkley's good. But he's no Zeke. And the latter wouldn't be half as successful in Washington for me as he is n Dallas. 

 

And I just don't personally see a that significant a drop off from two- four (presume we're Guice/ Jones/ Johnson) as you go down compared to other, real thin groups like FS, OL, 3-tech under DT's etc. 

 

Hail. 

All fair points.  

 

I’d like to see what a good back looks like behind our healthy oline.  I think we might be pleasantly surprised.  I’d also really like to add a capable in-line TE (or for Sprinkle to emerge).  To me, that would be 2 of our bigger run game issues addressed/solved.  Now, I’m not sold on our current LG options, or on Roullier (I like him though), particularly as he’s still learning and may be playing next to a questionable starter at LG.  However, I think we might not be in bad shape there once we switch backs.  

 

I just don’t want to once again forego a top back because it’s a deep class.  We saw it last year with Perine (who I haven’t written off).  I don’t want to land another ‘decent’ or limited back.  

 

With that said, I could get onboard with it if we wind up with a good 1st and 2nd round pick... I’m just concerned that we wind up only really investing in one (or zero) of our two glaring needs (the ground game on both sides of the ball).  

 

 

Put another way... this is a deep class for corners, right?  So I’m fine waiting until the 5th or whatever.  But, a big part of that reason is because we already have a few good/promising corners.  If we just had 1 proven guy in Norman (we’re actually not that far off from that), I’d say we shouldn’t wait that long because we need more of a sure thing.  Sure, we could still find a good starter later, but would it make sense to take that chance?  I’m not so sure.  

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Fanbase is getting married to Guice and rationalizing away the information that's coming out about teams having concerns about his maturity and readiness for the NFL.  I understand because I've been there time and time again.  Being mature enough to handle the NFL isn't just about staying out of trouble.  It sounds an awful lot like Guice is a developmentally-stunted manchild who is going to need his hand held at the next level in order to succeed.  He can be the sweetest kid in the world and that kind of assessment is still a big red flag because NFL teams simply aren't going to hand-hold a high maintenance kid who isn't ready for the league.  I love the talent he showed in that 2016 tape but couple the maturity issues with his unimpressive 2017 film and this kid is a massive risk in the first round.

 

Actually I think Guice's 2017 film is fine. It obviously wasn't as impressive as his 2016 film though, since he was banged up all season. 2017 I saw an excellent RB, 2016 I saw an elite RB. He didn't have the same burst as 2016 but it seems like he got by that a bit by relying on his vision and shiftiness in 2017 as he still managed to produce good numbers.

 

Another thing to remember about Guice is that, BY FAR, he faced the most stacked boxes of any of the other guys. Someone posted the article a while back and it had a table with each top RB and the % of snaps they faced stacked boxes with yards created as well. Guice faced stacked boxes 73% of the time. That's an absolutely ludicrous number. I think the next nearest guy was at 60% or something. Barkley was at about 55%. 

 

So Guice was banged up, faced stacked boxes on 3/4 of his snaps, and was on a team who's offense was essentially stuck in the 1980s (they ran 12 and 21 personnel groupings at almost twice the average of other teams). Everyone knew what was coming but they still weren't able to shut him down. In the NFL there's no way he'll be facing stacked boxes 73% of the time...offenses nowadays are just too spread out and more pass happy (in general) so stacking the box that much would be suicide for any defense facing a semi competent QB and offense.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Pick 13 is up and Derwin James is there. Pats call and offer 1.31, 2.11 and 3.31. You take it, right? Mock drafted Guice, Ragnow and Phillips in that scenario before going *Terrell Edmunds and JC Jackson in 3/4

 

Sorry to play with your scenario but where's Minkah dropped to?

 

Because if he's slipped to, oh, let's say within 5 picks of 13 I'm fixing to go up to get the second best player in the class IMHO. In a class so bereft of top echelon, blue-chip talents, I'm not looking that gift horse in the mouth to put in place a serious defensive building block the back end to add to the serious defensive building block the front end that we got similar lucky with last year. 

 

Hail. 

[nonniey]

22 minutes ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Sorry to play with your scenario but where's Minkah dropped to?

 

Because if he's slipped to, oh, let's say within 5 picks of 13 I'm fixing to go up to get the second best player in the class IMHO. In a class so bereft of top echelon, blue-chip talents, I'm not looking that gift horse in the mouth to put in place a serious defensive building block the back end to add to the serious defensive building block the front end that we got similar lucky with last year. 

 

Hail. 

There are only two players worth trading up for (For the Redskins), Barkley or Nelson.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think the problem is as to RB is the math is worse than the typical year to get a RB.  Too many teams are sending the same smoke signals the Redskins are about wanting a RB.  So I get what Keim is saying that the team is nervous about their spot in the 2nd round might be right outside the sweet spot for Rbs. 

 

If you think these are the 6 top guys in whatever order

Barkley

Guice

Michel

R. Jones

Chubb

Penny

 

Then you got these teams supposedly hot to trot for a RB

Giants

Dolphins

Lions

Eagles

Denver

Colts

Tampa

 

 Eagles all over Guice and Jones.  Colts all over Jones for example.  Denver as I posted here wondering if they need to trade up from 40 to get a RB.  

 

And I am not even counting the supposedly somewhat interested teams like Seattle, Ravens sniffing around Guice.  Patriots around Jones, etc. Lets say their interest is BS are not that hot. 

 

If the Eagles are as hot for Guice as some say they are, its unlikely he escapes their pick in the first round.  Then we got the Dolphins, Denver, Colts, Tampa, Giants all picking ahead of us in the 2nd.  Heck if they are as hot for RBs are purported, we'd lucky to even have Penny left.

 

Then you can argue what about the next round?  If we had a third rounder OK but we don't.  That might be the range of a K Johnson (Keim claims the Redskins don't like him though), Walton(some saying he can now go as high as the 2nd round), Freeman, Hines.

 

Ok so now we are back to the 4th round.  That's familiar territory for the brain trust in this FO as for RB and they haven't been hot working through the third tier guys.  So are the Redskins going to be the team that's going to figure out whose the right guy among Kelly, Adams, Ballage, Wadley?  I wouldn't put money on them getting that right. 

 

[mistertim]

Ugh. Can you imagine if the Giants got Barkley and the Eagles got Guice? Twice a year we'd have to face each of those guys along with Zeke. That could be ugly.

[Skinsinparadise]

32 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Ugh. Can you imagine if the Giants got Barkley and the Eagles got Guice? Twice a year we'd have to face each of those guys along with Zeke. That could be ugly.

 

Yep.  Next to the Redskins, the other team that's linked over and over again to Guice is the Eagles.  They've met with him multiple times.  Some of their beat guys say they love him and that's who they are zoning in on.  You see him going to Philly now in multiple mocks. 

 

If we wait to the 4th round and go into the season with a RB crew of Perine, Kelley and lets say Ballage or John Kelly -- with Elliot, Barkley, Guice on the other side than good luck to us. 

[goskins10]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think the problem is as to RB is the math is worse than the typical year to get a RB.  Too many teams are sending the same smoke signals the Redskins are about wanting a RB.  So I get what Keim is saying that the team is nervous about their spot in the 2nd round might be right outside the sweet spot for Rbs. 

 

edit 

 

Then you can argue what about the next round?  If we had a third rounder OK but we don't.  That might be the range of a K Johnson (Keim claims the Redskins don't like him though), Walton(some saying he can now go as high as the 2nd round), Freeman, Hines.

 

Ok so now we are back to the 4th round.  That's familiar territory for the brain trust in this FO as for RB and they haven't been hot working through the third tier guys.  So are the Redskins going to be the team that's going to figure out whose the right guy among Kelly, Adams, Ballage, Wadley?  I wouldn't put money on them getting that right. 

 

 

Great analysis. I really believe people get entirely too hung up on getting "value" for the specific draft pick - oh, that guy is not good value there. It's great to worry about value when you are doing mock. But value does not translate to winning games. You need to get the guys that can help you win. That means that sometimes you may "reach" for a player. But is it really a reach just because a bunch of talking heads say it's a reach? 

 

I was listening to Bill Polian the other day and he was making this exact point. This whole idea of "value" in a draft pick is really only a big deal to people reporting on the draft. There is just so much more to it. Also, many teams boards will look nothing like what all the "experts" posting mock drafts have. 

 

If the Redskins see RB as a primary need - a view I do not think anyone would really disagree with here - then you can't risk missing out the guys that appear to be able to make an instant impact that you feel can make a major change to your team because it's not a "good value". 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

37 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Ugh. Can you imagine if the Giants got Barkley and the Eagles got Guice? Twice a year we'd have to face each of those guys along with Zeke. That could be ugly.

Yes, but if we had Vea our run defense should be pretty stout with him and Allen .