stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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47 minutes ago, bedlamVR said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

I am kind of struggling to understand what the Giants are doing right now. Seriously. - I honestly cannot see how they don't go QB at 2 BUT.... 

.....

1

 

You're Gettleman at the Giants. 

 

The Bills call. And you know they will. They haven't positioned themselves this high to just sit at 12. Both firsts this year. Sweetened with another in 2019. Three first round picks. But you drop back 10 places to 12th and risk missing out on your QB when you hope to not be picking this high again for a LONG time. 

 

What do you do? Because you know Gettleman is just waiting for that call. 

 

Hail. 

 

*Edit* And there's no way the Browns don't take a QB at 1. I don't know where the mediots are getting off even speculating Dorsey won't do that. Dorsey's all about a franchise QB as he was taking a risk on Mahomes last year. So Barkley's in place at 2 for the Giants if they so desired. 

 

Whatcha' gonna' do?

Edited by Gibbs Hog Heaven

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I was thinking about how dynamic Saquon would make this offense, but even if he started to fall and it only cost a second rounder to move up and grab him, I wonder about the finances of doing so. You'd probably get a great 5 years, but imagine the size of the second contract that Saquon is likely to command. I think it's hard to win with that much of your cap tied up in a RB. 

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I've been thinking that it's very unlikely the Giants trade from 2 to 12 to just get 22 and a 2nd. But if they get the Bills to give them 12, 22 and a 1st next year, I think they do it. Why? Well, they could use their draft ammo to move back up to get their guy if they wanted, and having a second 1st rounder in 2019 gives you a lot of insurance to get Eli's successor if things fall apart this year.

 

Could you imagine if the Giants traded Odell to Indy for #35 and #36 and then traded #2 to Buffalo for #12 and #22 and a 1st next year. Ugh. Giants would have #12, #22, #34, #35, #36 ... and be lined up for 2 firsts next year. UGH

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I'm on the Guice bandwagon at 13.

I think he has to be the pick there.

Slight chance Fitz drops, and if he did I wouldn't have a problem with him, but the rumors of Billy Price meetings seem to point more toward RB early for me.

 

I think Guice in rd 1 followed up by OL in round 2 would do wonders for this team. This is the best rb class in quite awhile, and next year's DL class is supposedly stacked. It would suck to wait another year for DL help but hopefully a good running game would take a bunch of pressure off the D, hopefully keeping guys healthier and effective because they're on the field less.

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Here's my mock draft that I'm working on ... let me know what you think.

1. CLE - Sam Darnold, QB USC

*Trade: BUF sends 1.12, 1.22 and a 2019 1st to NYG for 1.2

2. BUF - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

3. NYJ - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

*Trade: Miami send 1.11, 2.10 and a 2019 1st to Cleveland for 1.4

4. MIA - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

5. DEN - Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame

6. IND - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State

7. TB - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

8. CHI - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S Alabama

9. SF - Tremaine Edmunds, ILB Va. Tech

10. OAK - Roquan Smith, ILB Georgia

11. CLE - Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame

12. NYG - Harold Landry, Edge Boston College

*Trade: LAC send 1.17, 3.20, 4.19 to WAS for 1.13 and 5.26

13. LAC - Derwin James, S Florida State

14. GB - Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State

15. ARI - Connor Williams, OT Texas

16. BAL - Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama

17. WAS - Vita Vea, NT Washington

*Trade: CLE sends 2.3 and 2.32 to SEA for 1.18

18. CLE - Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan

19. DAL - DJ Moore, WR Maryland

*Trade: TEN trades 1.25 and 3.25 to DET for 1.20

20. TEN - Leighton Vander Esch, ILB Boise St.

21. CIN - Isaiah Wynn, G/C/T Georgia

22. NYG - Billy Price, C/G Ohio State

23. LAR - Marcus Davenport, Edge UTSA

*Trade: ATL sends 1.26 and 4th to CAR for 1.24

24. ATL - Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama

25. DET - Derrius Guice, RB LSU

26. CAR - Will Hernandez, G UTEP

 

That's what I've got so far. So an early run on QBs gives us a chance to trade down and get a 3rd and 4th (and give up a 5th) and would be at 17 in position to take either Vea or Guice.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins
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Miami bailing on Tannehill would be something JMS. 

 

Not got a clue what they actually think about him as the Dolphins haven't said much of anything officially. 

 

A record 4 QB's the top 5 would be a heck of a shocker to start the draft. With maybe Denver panicking on Arizona and taking Jackson to make it a clean sweep. Phew! The scenes if that happens. :rofl89:

 

Hail. 

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Portis just now on Cooley.  If Cooley is right and Portis is a paid advisor to the Redskins on RBs in this draft -- it makes this interesting because his views might be relevant to the FO.  First, I oddly remember Portis take about Guice in the past better than Cooley did -- even though Portis talked about Guice on his own show.  Cooley went the other day that Portis doesn't like Guice.  But I recall he did like Guice. I posted that here.  I am not saying that to pat myself on the back for my memory -- I just found it really odd that Cooley remembered it so wrong.

 

Portis favs

 

1.  Barkley -- he's a sure thing, he will be good for sure.  He wonders about RBs in the Big 10 some because the defenses they are playing against aren't fast.  He doesn't love him though to the degree that he'd trade up for him.  He thinks some others are close enough to him. But he thinks he's definitely a stud. Gushed about him.

 

2.  Guice -- he thinks he would be a great pick at 13.  He compares him to Adrian Peterson in his running style.  He said he loves that he runs with a certain recklessness.  And he did all of this all by himself without LSU really giving him much help against stacked boxes and against the tough SEC defenses.  He said no way you are stopping the Redskins on 3rd and 2 like opponents do so easily now -- if Guice is the game.   You need at least 2 guys to bring him down.  Stud. Gushed about him.

 

3.  Walton -- that was his offbeat pick.  Cooley joked that it was him UM bias.  He goes like Guice, you need multiple guys to bring him down.  He makes quick cuts.  He helps in the passing game.  He's a feisty runner.  You are getting him at a steal in this draft because he should have returned to college for another year and if he did he'd be a #1 pick in 2019, first RB off the board. Gushed about him but not as him on him as he was on Barkley and Guice.

 

4. Michel:  he loved his vision and his burst.  He thinks he's clearly better than Chubb.  He can cut through narrow creases and accelerates fast.  But he doesn't have top end speed so defenders can catch up to him in a long run.

 

5.  Ballage:  he goes he knows about his critics. But he doesn't see that on film.  He wouldn't draft him early but would take him in the 4th or later.  He says good vision, good cuts, he was impressed and is surprised about all the criticism he gets.

 

Portis lukewarm:

 

Chubb:  He likes but is not blown away by him.  He thinks for the NFL he needs to be one of these big carry, wear you down by the 4th quarter types.

 

Penny:  fast, has the burst to take it to the house. Decent hands.  But he runs high, shies away from contact. He worries about his lower level competition. 

 

Portis doesn't like

 

Ronald Jones:  he seems him as just a speed back who needs big holes to cut through.  He's not impressed with the PAC defenses he faced.  He doesn't see creativity as a runner or passion.

 

Kerryon Johnson:  He says his big frame gives a deceiving idea that he's this big brawler but he's not.  He gets taken down by one guy a lot.  He's not a tough runner -- he runs sideways a lot to avoid contact.   He seems lost in the passing game. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Portis' way to judge running backs

 

3 key critieria

A.  How good are they at setting up their blocks 

B.  Vision-cutting ability -- can they run through the creases, recut, shift directions, etc.

C.  When you got daylight -- you have the speed to take off

 

His view is that too many judge college RBs purely on C but C won't be the same in the NFL.  So some college RBs are deceiving as to comp to the pros because in college you got these juiced up offenses where you can out athletic the defenders.  In the NFL, you are going to have fast defenders and you aren't going to get the same size holes that you got in college.

 

He puts value on RBs who create for themselves when there is nothing there because that's going to happen a lot in the NFL.  So the guys who can do that have a major edge coming into the NFL and the guys who can't will likely struggle.

 

As for Guice.  He more or less went he's the opposite of many guys from college going to the NFL because the transition might be easier (as opposed to harder) for him to play in the NFL versus playing at LSU. 

 

It takes 2-3 guys to take him down.  He runs angry-reckless and that's going to help you run through guys.   That helps a lot in the NFL.  He implied that once you start running over defenders they are going to be hesitant to want to tackle you.  He's used to stacked boxes, etc.

 

His team in the NFL might be one where it isn't all about stopping him like it was at LSU so he will find more running lanes in the NFL.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Portis favs

 

 

2.  Guice -- he thinks he would be a great pick at 13.  He compares him to Adrian Peterson in his running style.  He said he loves that he runs with a certain recklessness.  And he did all of this all by himself without LSU really giving him much help against stacked boxes and against the tough SEC defenses.  He said no way you are stopping the Redskins on 3rd and 2 like opponents do so easily now -- if Guice is the game.   You need at least 2 guys to bring him down.  Stud. Gushed about him.

 

3.  Walton -- that was his offbeat pick.  Cooley joked that it was him UM bias.  He goes like Guice, you need multiple guys to bring him down.  He makes quick cuts.  He helps in the passing game.  You are getting him at a steal in this draft because he should have returned to college for another year and if he did he'd be a #1 pick in 2019, first RB off the board. Gushed about him but night as him on him as he was on Barkley and Guice.

 

 

 

Interesting. It helps confirm what I thought about Guice. I liked Walton but don't think he's in the same category.. maybe a notch below.

I also really like the guy out of Oregon, Freeman. But he's a definite notch or two below the guys above.

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Yeah, the amount of stacked boxes Guice faced, according to the analysis someone posted earlier, was INSANE. What was it, 73% or something? And he still was able to be a prolific back...even being banged up in 2017. And that's against SEC defenses. I'm definitely on board with him and would be fine with him at 13.

Edited by mistertim
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Guice is going to go in the 1st. Walton may rise, but he's been in the 4th-6th range. I gotta imagine he'll go in the higher-end of that range.

 

We are also getting to the time of year where Mock Drafts start synching up more with reality and what scouts are seeing. And inevitably there are guys that are completely missed on in the mocks who go way above where they're slated to. If Portis' thoughts are echoed by other FOs, I would expect Ronald Jones to slip out of the 1st and probably into the 2nd/3rd and be seen more as a Chris Thompson type gadget player ... and guys like Mark Walton to go from the 5th or 6th in mocks up to the 3rd or 4th. Same with Ballage ... heard similar things about him that Portis apparently said, and he could very well sneak up higher than the 5th or 6th where he's been slated to go.

 

Also, just as an example ... 3 guys who were in the 3rd-5th round range in mock drafts just a few weeks ago are now going in the back-end of the 1st ... James Daniels from Iowa, Jessie Bates from Wake Forest, and Jaire Alexander from Louisville.


Did these mock drafters suddenly start watching tape on these guys and catch on to their skills? Or do the mock drafts just emulate what one another are doing and as more and more retired scouts/tv guys start coming out with their rankings and others start talking to scouts inside organizations, some of these mock drafts start to look a LOT differently.

 

Jessie Bates and James Daniels were probably always 1st/2nd round talents, but if you started looking at mock drafts back in January, you likely saw them going in the 3rd or 4th. And if you don't allow yourself to adjust mentally around that, as a fan you could be really disappointed when mock drafts start having guys you once thought were mid-round targets as 2nd round picks.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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I really think it's going to come down to Vea/Guice. If Fitzpatrick, James, Smith fall that's where it will get interesting.

 

But if we're being honest, how many years do the top 12 picks go as planned? Anyone see John Ross going top 10 last year? Someone really good is going to fall, especially with all of these QB's pushing other top talent down. We seriously might be in a position where we add two top 5 talents in consecutive years outside of the top 10. That's exciting.

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2 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

You're Gettleman at the Giants. 

 

The Bills call. And you know they will. They haven't positioned themselves this high to just sit at 12. Both firsts this year. Sweetened with another in 2019. Three first round picks. But you drop back 10 places to 12th and risk missing out on your QB when you hope to not be picking this high again for a LONG time. 

 

What do you do? Because you know Gettleman is just waiting for that call. 

 

Hail. 

 

*Edit* And there's no way the Browns don't take a QB at 1. I don't know where the mediots are getting off even speculating Dorsey won't do that. Dorsey's all about a franchise QB as he was taking a risk on Mahomes last year. So Barkley's in place at 2 for the Giants if they so desired. 

 

Whatcha' gonna' do?

 

It all really depends on how Dorsey rates the top three QBs - IF he sees all three as essentially a wash but all with the potential to be franchise guys then I could see them going elsewhere at 1 knowing he is going to get someone at 4.y - OR if he does see it that way the smart thing would be to trade out of 1st (to say the Bills) if a really good deal is on the table - but I have yet to see any rumors relating to that. and i agree it is unlikely that the Browns do get too cute and do anything else but QB at 1 ...

 

I am also kind of on the Guice train over Payne and Vea - just in terms of the potential impact - but it will be a tough decision as to who would be my pick at 13 if Fitz or James is available - and I am not a big fan of moving down 

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Portis' opinions might be the flavor of the day, but if what he is saying is true ... at #44 the most likely options for us are Chubb, Penny and Johnson ... all guys he's not super high on. I wonder if that is an opinion that is prevailing within the Skins war room. If it is, then maybe we really are higher on Guice at 13 or in a trade-down scenario ... or maybe we do wait and hope Walton or Ballage are there for our 4th round picks. Because I have a hard time seeing Michel there at #44.

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26 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:


Did these mock drafters suddenly start watching tape on these guys and catch on to their skills? Or do the mock drafts just emulate what one another are doing and as more and more retired scouts/tv guys start coming out with their rankings and others start talking to scouts inside organizations, some of these mock drafts start to look a LOT differently.

 

Yeah mocks tends to get more accurate as you get closer for reasons you expressed.  I think Landry is another example of someone I see going higher now than initial mocks.

 

Listened back to Portis.  Interesting he really doesn't think much of Kerryon Johnson -- Cooley echoed that a little but isn't as down on him.  Ditto Ronald Jones.  He clearly isn't excited by but doesn't hate Chubb and Penny. Likes Chubb over Penny.  He loves Barkley, Guice, Walton.  He digs Michel but not as much as his top 3 guys.  Ditto Ballage.

 

PFF just did a 3 round mock.  It's funky as usual.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-nfl-mock-draft-4

We take Fitzpatrick in the first Chubb in the 2nd. 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Portis' opinions might be the flavor of the day, but if what he is saying is true ... at #44 the most likely options for us are Chubb, Penny and Johnson ... all guys he's not super high on. I wonder if that is an opinion that is prevailing within the Skins war room. If it is, then maybe we really are higher on Guice at 13 or in a trade-down scenario ... or maybe we do wait and hope Walton or Ballage are there for our 4th round picks. Because I have a hard time seeing Michel there at #44.

 

According to Cooley (he said it the other day not today) Portis is a paid consultant to the FO at RB.  If so they'd take his opinion in account but aren't just relying on him.

 

To take Portis opinion and match it to what Keim said he's heard from his source over the weekend

 

Portis Opinion Matches On These

Barkley & Guice -- he loves them and apparently so does the FO

Kerryon Johnson -- Keim suggested he's not a player they are into

 

Portis Opinion Doesn't Match On These

Liking Michel over Chubb.  Keim said he heard they prefer Chubb

Keim seems to imply Penny could be a fallback -- but his language was ambigous on it so hard to tell.

 

Don't know

I don't recall any mention of Walton or Ballage

 

10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Portis' opinions might be the flavor of the day, but if what he is saying is true ... at #44 the most likely options for us are Chubb, Penny and Johnson ... all guys he's not super high on. I wonder if that is an opinion that is prevailing within the Skins war room. If it is, then maybe we really are higher on Guice at 13 or in a trade-down scenario ... or maybe we do wait and hope Walton or Ballage are there for our 4th round picks. Because I have a hard time seeing Michel there at #44.

 

Thinking about the point, Keim doubled down multiple times that the FO is scared they are in no mans land at 13 and 44 where the sweet spot to take a RB happens in between those picks.

 

If that's so than running with Portis picks of the big names he likes Guice & Michel they are likely gone by that spot.  So maybe that's one way to marry Portis' narrative with Keim's take.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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2 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

Miami bailing on Tannehill would be something JMS. 

 

Not got a clue what they actually think about him as the Dolphins haven't said much of anything officially. 

 

 

Lot of reports in South Florida about them loving Mayfield and wanting a QB in the draft.  Tannehill is mostly seen as a guy here -- won't kill you, won't win you anything. 

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One guys opinion of 3 who can drop on draft day but they shouldn't.

https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl-draft/3-players-teams-shouldnt-let-slide-on-nfl-draft-day/

 

Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

While there are a few other blue-chip talents in this year’s class, Nelson is the best prospect in the draft. And he isn’t even in the discussion for the No. 1 overall pick. Offensive guard doesn’t represent the positional value required of the draft’s top pick. In fact, numerous fans scoff at the idea of taking Nelson in the top five simply based on the position he plays.

I believe Nelson has the upside to become the best offensive lineman in the NFL.

Nelson is a joy to watch operate in the ground game as he overwhelms opponents. Generating power by maximizing his frame, Nelson blows opponents off the ball and frequently puts them on their back.  He has the physical, tenacious mentality that NFL teams are looking for as he blocks through the whistle and is never content with a stalemate.

Nelson’s power components show up when pass blocking, where his powerful anchor and punch easily handles interior rushers. His length also serves him well as a pass blocker.

Nelson looks like a plug-and-play lineman who will anchor an NFL offensive line for a decade.

If the NFL Draft is about getting return on investment then there isn’t a more sure thing than Nelson. The idea that he could be available for the Colts at No. 6 and/or Bucs at No. 7 has everything to do with the position he plays. Nelson is the best player in the draft, yet he’s destined to get drafted outside even the top five.

 

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Fitzpatrick’s situation is not unlike that of Nelson. He’s one of the clear blue-chip talents that lacks positional value and will be overlooked because of it.

But could he fall out of the top 10 altogether? With the expected early run on as many as four quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 and several other highly rated players (Nelson, Saquon Barkley, Denzel Ward, Tremaine Edmunds, Harold Landry, Roquan Smith, Derwin James), the idea that Fitzpatrick slides is becoming a reality.

It shouldn’t be.

Fitzpatrick’s rare coverage versatility enables him to function in man coverage, single-high or split zones. That makes him a scheme-transcendent talent and a valuable chess piece at the next level. He complements his coverage skills with the ability to make impact plays on the ball and create turnovers.

Fitzpatrick is also a standout run defender who takes precise angles to the football and is an outstanding tackler. He has no difficulty playing off contact and positioning himself to make plays. He illustrated the ability to play in the box and make an impact playing close to the line of scrimmage and blitzing.

A do-everything defensive back, Fitzpatrick should be coveted in the top seven. A team will be very luck to snatch him up far lower than what should be possible.

To think an NFL team is going to roll the dice with the erratic play of Josh Allen simply because he’s a big, athletic rocket-armed passer while overlooking premier talent like Nelson and Fitzpatrick baffles me.

 

Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest

With the Clelin Ferrel, Bradley Chubb, Harold Landry, Josh Sweat and Joe Jackson in the conference, the ACC was loaded with edge rushers last season. And the one who continues to be overlooked is Ejiofor.

Carrying a mid-second round grade for me, Ejiofor is my 33rd highest ranked prospect in the class. Racking up 17 sacks and 21 tackles for loss over the last two seasons, Ejiofor is every bit as much of a playmaker as the “bigger” names in the ACC.

He’s not an overly twitchy or explosive defensive end, but his power, hand technique and length with a nuanced approach as a pass rusher makes him very appealing.

My favorite aspect to his game is how well he counters blocks – it’s second nature to him. He has outstanding vision to read the offensive tackle’s set and he knows how to combat and attack it. That understanding of gap responsibilities and how to counter blocks says a lot about his football character.

His balanced skill set would be a welcome addition to a 4-3 defense as a base end. While I don’t think he will ultimately get drafted in the top 33, much less the second round, Ejiofor’s power and technical nuance should lead to a productive career the over performs the slot where he ultimately ends up drafted.

 

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Adding to the Guice conversation from the FA thread...

 

I think the 2016 version was a top 10 pick.  To have the season he did in 2017 while injured?  Pretty impressive.  

He didn’t get many favors with regard to blocking scheme, and stacked boxes.  The ability to more than overcome those is also impressive.  He brings some elements the Skins have lacked - elusiveness, speed, vision and angry running - from a non-3rd down back.  He looks like he could be pretty dangerous (given those traits) as a passing weapon, too.  Gruden (and by extension, Smith and our D) could really benefit from an impact (pro-ready) back like that.  

 

Needless to say, I think he’s a great back and a great fit for the Skins.  There are probably others that could be as well, but they all have some sort of questions about them.

 

My 2 cents anyway.   

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5 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

You're Gettleman at the Giants. 

 

The Bills call. And you know they will. They haven't positioned themselves this high to just sit at 12. Both firsts this year. Sweetened with another in 2019. Three first round picks. But you drop back 10 places to 12th and risk missing out on your QB when you hope to not be picking this high again for a LONG time. 

 

What do you do? Because you know Gettleman is just waiting for that call. 

 

You listen to the trade offer then you pass.  Like the Eagles you take your franchise QB when you have the opportunity.  Let the rookie sit for a year (less if Manning really stinks up the joint).

 

I agree that the Browns should pick their franchise QB with the #1 pick.  Browns, Giants and Jets could take 3 of the QBs.  If the Bills like the 4th QB then they definitely need to trade with the Browns for the 4th pick.  I'm sure the Browns would be happy to take that trade.

Edited by PlayAction

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I think a lot of it is smoke-screening. And I have a hard time believing the Giants are going to stay at #2. The Jets gave up #6 and 3 2nd rounders to go to #3. I have to imagine the Giants will get #12, 22, 53 and probably a 2019 1st from Buffalo. I think they take that. Then it's interesting. Do they trade Odell to LA Rams for #23? Then they'd have #12, 22, 23, 34, 53 ... and have holes at RB, WR, DE, OG/C ... would be interesting to see what they do with those picks. None of them would necessarily be guaranteed to net them a game-changer, per se.

 

Or would they package those picks to try and move back up to #4 with Cleveland to get Barkley or Chubb? Ayayay ... Giants hold all the cards.

 

I do think if Buffalo trades to #2 and QBs go 1-3 ... then obviously the ball is in Cleveland's court. Do they take Barkley despite having Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde? Do they take Minkah Fitzpatrick even though they've now got Darius Randall who plays a similar role? Do they draft Bradley Chubb and have a dominant DL for years to come? Or do they trade that pick out to Miami, who apparently covets Baker Mayfield?

 

If Giants trade out of #2, I think there's a very good chance that 1-4 are QBs. Just depends on who Cleveland chooses to dance with. Miami could send them 1.11, 2.10 and a 1st next year, and we all know how much Cleveland loves to get future #1s.

Then, if your draft starts with Cleveland taking Darnold, Buffalo taking Allen, Jets taking Rosen and Miami taking Mayfield ... I think Denver takes Nelson, Colts take Chubb, Bucs take Barkley, Bears take Fitzpatrick. Then San Fran is up.

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If QBs start going 1-3, there's going to be a mad dash to get to the front from a few teams and then a lot of talent is going to drop to us.

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