Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins
Forum Rules and Guidelines

Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
Message added by TK,

 

Recommended Posts

JSSkinz

JSSkinz

Posted
Posted

Concerning the tv ads I'm not even sure it matters, what matters is Latin turnout was below 50% last election and the African American vote was down 6% from 2012.

 

I don't think there's an African American or Latin person in this country who needs to see a tv commercial to decide how to vote (except for the more conservative Cubans).

 

African Americans and Latinos can literally carry Joe to the presidency, this is what I would be focusing on and for Joe, he has to win Florida or he's done but he's the one Dem candidate that IMO actually has a very good chance to turn Florida.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Concerning the tv ads I'm not even sure it matters, what matters is Latin turnout was below 50% last election and the African American vote was down 6% from 2012.

 

I don't think there's an African American or Latin person in this country who needs to see a tv commercial to decide how to vote (except for the more conservative Cubans).

 

African Americans and Latinos can literally carry Joe to the presidency, this is what I would be focusing on and for Joe, he has to win Florida or he's done but he's the one Dem candidate that IMO actually has a very good chance to turn Florida.

 

Joe can win the presidency without Florida. He can win PA,MI and either WI or AZ to win the presidency.

As I posted earlier, Joe really needs to win big.

 

Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennslyvania,  Michigan,  Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa,Georgia, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado are battlegrounds I can think of. Joe isn't going to win all of those but these seem like the real contested states. Trump thinks he can flip some. I probably should put Virginia in there, as Trump will fight there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JSSkinz

JSSkinz

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Joe can win the presidency without Florida. He can win PA,MI and either WI or AZ to win the presidency.

As I posted earlier, Joe really needs to win big.

 

Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennslyvania,  Michigan,  Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa,Georgia, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado are battlegrounds I can think of. Joe isn't going to win all of those but these seem like the real contested states. Trump thinks he can flip some. I probably should put Virginia in there, as Trump will fight there.

I read the article with the graphic you posted, we can go over all kinds of scenarios but for whatever reason Florida and Ohio seem to set the pace, the historical data shows it, in the last 80 years only 2 Democratic candidates have won the Presidency without winning Florida and a Republican has never won without winning OH.

 

Most likely Joe will run the table in those battlegrounds if he wins OH and FL, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
88Comrade2000

88Comrade2000

Posted
  • Author
Posted
11 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I read the article with the graphic you posted, we can go over all kinds of scenarios but for whatever reason Florida and Ohio seem to set the pace, the historical data shows it, in the last 80 years only 2 Presidents have won without winning Florida and a Republican has never won without winning OH.

 

Most likely Joe will run the table in those battlegrounds if he wins OH and FL, IMO.

Florida and Ohio are more neccessary for the GOP. Clinton won in 92 without Florida and still would've won without winning Ohio.

 

If Joe could win both that would be great. I think he has better shot at Florida than Ohio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted

Virginia isn't going for Trump. The rural counties don't make up for Northern Virginia, Richmond, the Tidewater, and more. Virginia state government turned Blue majority in 2018, and will again this year.

 

The things Trump and Fox are spewing out now reek of desperation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JSSkinz

JSSkinz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:
 
 
0
 Advanced issue found
▲
 
 
1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

That's a bit like the old trope about running the ball 30 times means you're going to win a football game. 

This shows the last 3 Presidential elections where a Dem won Florida.  They went on to pretty much sweep the battleground states.  Why does it happen?  I don't know but until the data says differently this is what happens.

 

 

412297577_Annotation2020-05-15154338.thumb.png.1d6b026c7ba7749c460c23e0dd144886.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rufus T Firefly

Rufus T Firefly

Posted
Posted

What the data says is that if Hillary had gotten a small number more votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin she'd have won the election but not Florida.

 

If Biden wins the election narrowly, it's almost certainly without Florida. If he wins Florida, he's probably won the election by a large margin. The odds that Florida is the timing point of this election are very slim. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...