The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[mistertim]

The defense's 3rd down problems were obviously an issue in the number of drives but I think another possible cause was how good the offense was between the 20s which led to more long/sustained drives, which in turn would probably lead to less overall drives. The defense being awful on 3rd down and the offense being awful at scoring TDs in the red zone (yes, 10th is not bad, but it for the number of yards thrown it was a huge discrepancy and not good) were two huge achilles heels that need to be remedied if we want to be better than a "good" team.

[Veryoldschool]

I thought before that if a LTD didn't get done before the FT deadline it will never get done and I'm back feeling that way now.  I think Dan Snyder's inaction has convinced Kirk Cousins that he will never be Dan's guy.  Kirk is probably at a point now were he would be leery of signing a good LTD because he'll fear getting traded to Cleveland or some other undesirable team by Snyder.  Better to finish his Redskin career under the FT in 2017 and review the offers in 2018 when he is in control.

[WelshSkinsFan]

38 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

I thought before that if a LTD didn't get done before the FT deadline it will never get done and I'm back feeling that way now.  I think Dan Snyder's inaction has convinced Kirk Cousins that he will never be Dan's guy.  Kirk is probably at a point now were he would be leery of signing a good LTD because he'll fear getting traded to Cleveland or some other undesirable team by Snyder.  Better to finish his Redskin career under the FT in 2017 and review the offers in 2018 when he is in control.

 

I just cannot agree with this.  Whether a LTD gets done or not is not so much the issue as the assumption that Kirk just won't sign because he is in his feelings over how the team treated him.  From day one Kirk has been a pro and repeatedly has stressed that he gets the business side of it and even admits that he likes the tag as a way to maximize his value.  There is not one single piece of evidence that Kirk's decision will be about anything other than money and the constant pushing of this false narrative is getting really old.

[Morneblade]

5 hours ago, mistertim said:

The defense's 3rd down problems were obviously an issue in the number of drives but I think another possible cause was how good the offense was between the 20s which led to more long/sustained drives, which in turn would probably lead to less overall drives. The defense being awful on 3rd down and the offense being awful at scoring TDs in the red zone (yes, 10th is not bad, but it for the number of yards thrown it was a huge discrepancy and not good) were two huge achilles heels that need to be remedied if we want to be better than a "good" team.

 

According to PFF, the offense was:

8th in time per drive

8th in plays per drive

3rd in yards per drive

6th in points per drive

 

For comparison, the defense was:

29th in time per drive

31st in yards per drive

32nd in plays per drive

24th in points per drive

 

It was not the offense that was killing the team

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2016.htm

 

[Tsailand]

@Morneblade This "offseason workout with the HC's brother" scam we have going is great  I'm just waiting for Mara to take draft picks or cap space to punish us.

 

 

@elkabong82 Well, that's back to the debate over what "market value" means.  Brock was surely worth more than 16/year, that's why he didn't take 16. The Texans offered 19/year to make sure to close the deal.  Just like use offering 75/5 to Norman, not even letting him leave the building.  Did we overpay?

 

Regardless, Kirk's market value is relevant to the discussion. On the open market after 2015, he would have gotten 21+/year.  His offer to the Redskins was more than reasonable, but Dumb and Dumber turned it down.

 

Also: Kirk was the top QB for the second half of 2015.  When you add in the whole season, he drops to "just" top 10.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

For comparison, the defense was:

29th in time per drive

32nd in plays per drive

31st in plays per drive

24th in points per drive

 

 

 

Defense ranked both 31st AND 32nd in plays per drive...that's impressive lol.

[seantaylor=god]

Let's assume Cousins values staying with the same coaches he has worked with before, which was one of the reasons SF or LA looked like a landing spot.

 

If SF takes a QB at #2, trades down and takes a QB in the 1st, or takes a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, doesn't that help us in re-signing Kirk? SF would then most likely not be in the market for a QB in 2018. I think whoever Kyle starts in SF will look pretty decent. LA probably can't move on from Goff yet.

 

So then we'll be competing against the Jets, Houston, Arizona, Cleveland, JAX (he has family there, no state income tax, Bortles sucks) or other teams for him in 2018. Isn't it likely that he would value continuity in our offense, with our coach, and be more likely to sign a deal for 22-24 a year, 55 mil guaranteed, 110 mil total over 5 yrs? Could we end up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat?

 

I'd sign him today for 24 a year, $70 guaranteed 120 mil.

 

[Tsailand]

15 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

in 2018. Isn't it likely that he would value continuity in our offense, with our coach, and be more likely to sign a deal for 22-24 a year, 55 mil guaranteed, 110 mil total over 5 yrs? Could we end up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat?

 

In 2018? Right after he has a 5000 yard season and we transition tag him for $28.7M?  I doubt it. 

 

Some top QBs are going to sign extensions this spring/summer, and more next year.  Kirk isn't going to sign a contract that pays him well less than what those guys get.

 

15 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I'd sign him today for 24 a year, $70 guaranteed 120 mil.

 

I wonder if he'd even take that.

 

I'd offer him an 8 year contract at 25/year, 80M guaranteed.

 

 

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

According to PFF, the offense was:

8th in time per drive

8th in plays per drive

3rd in yards per drive

6th in points per drive

 

For comparison, the defense was:

29th in time per drive

32nd in plays per drive

31st in plays per drive

24th in points per drive

 

It was not the offense that was killing the team

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2016.htm

 

 

And I didn't claim the offense was killing the team. Clearly our defense was worse than our offense overall. However, teams who have bad defenses have to have their offenses step up and score more points. That's where our red zone issues came into play. If the offense went from awful to mediocre in the red zone we probably would have won at least a few more close games just like if our defense went from awful to mediocre on 3rd downs. And that is NOT meant to exonerate the defense or say the defense didn't have plenty of blame. But the defense sucking (though IIRC they were close to middle of the road in terms of points allowed per game) doesn't excuse the crappy red zone production and our having to settle for field goals over and over.

[seantaylor=god]

9 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

 

In 2018? Right after he has a 5000 yard season and we transition tag him for $28.7M?  I doubt it. 

 

Some top QBs are going to sign extensions this spring/summer, and more next year.  Kirk isn't going to sign a contract that pays him well less than what those guys get.

 

 

I wonder if he'd even take that.

 

I'd offer him an 8 year contract at 25/year, 80M guaranteed.

 

 

Sigh. You're right. I'm just trying to convince myself that there is some scenario where he re-signs. We aren't going to offer him that much; I don't get it. He's going to play well under the tag this year, then because we are so smart we will transition tag him in 2018. He will get a huge offer from a team with loads of cap space that we can't/won't match.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

 

Defense ranked both 31st AND 32nd in plays per drive...that's impressive lol.

 

Isn't it?

Sorry, 32nd in plays per drive. I'll fix it.

 

[Morneblade]

29 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And I didn't claim the offense was killing the team. Clearly our defense was worse than our offense overall. However, teams who have bad defenses have to have their offenses step up and score more points. That's where our red zone issues came into play. If the offense went from awful to mediocre in the red zone we probably would have won at least a few more close games just like if our defense went from awful to mediocre on 3rd downs. And that is NOT meant to exonerate the defense or say the defense didn't have plenty of blame. But the defense sucking (though IIRC they were close to middle of the road in terms of points allowed per game) doesn't excuse the crappy red zone production and our having to settle for field goals over and over.

 

I would say a couple things. Play calling had a big part to do with it in the RZ. The fact that we were, even with the RZ issues 6th in points per drive means that we were still scoring with a high rate of success per drive. I posted this because you threw out there that part of the issue was that the Offense took a lot of time off the clock, reducing the amount of drives they had to score with. The stats do not support that.

[TSO]

1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

 

Defense ranked both 31st AND 32nd in plays per drive...that's impressive lol.

 

They were so bad they occupied last place TWICE!!  

[Morneblade]

5 minutes ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

They were so bad they occupied last place TWICE!!  

 

Historic!

[zCommander]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000800102/article/pryor-on-working-with-cousins-were-going-to-do-well

 

Pryor claimed to have caught all but a couple of the 200 passes thrown his way.

"It was about him getting my timing down," Pryor said, per ESPN's John Keim. "There were a couple routes I had to run a couple times because he's a timing thrower, and he throws it to spots. But we'll get there. When we get there (to Washington's first offseason voluntary workout) Monday, we'll go two or three times a week and work on that as well. I was eager. It was great to work with him and get to know him."

 

I am feeling good. Are you?

[elkabong82]

19 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

I thought before that if a LTD didn't get done before the FT deadline it will never get done and I'm back feeling that way now.  I think Dan Snyder's inaction has convinced Kirk Cousins that he will never be Dan's guy.  Kirk is probably at a point now were he would be leery of signing a good LTD because he'll fear getting traded to Cleveland or some other undesirable team by Snyder.  Better to finish his Redskin career under the FT in 2017 and review the offers in 2018 when he is in control.

 

This is just nuts. Past delusion, past gross speculation. It's nuts. 

 

Dan Snyder directly told Cousins he's their guy, no trades are ahppening, they want him long-term. This is coming from Kirk himself.

 

If Kirk signed an LTD he would stay. He wouldn't then be traded. The cap penalty alone for trading him on a big contract would be insane. 

 

The team has an official offer already made, though the money is lower since it's the first true offer. At this point they negotitate numbers. HOWEVER, there's likely a hold until after the draft because although the team won't trade him, you never know. Somebody could get desparate and offer a huge trade deal. 

 

These types of deal where tag is involved typically don't resolve until summer. 

[NewCliche21]

22 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

Dan Snyder directly told Cousins he's their guy, no trades are ahppening, they want him long-term. This is coming from Kirk himself.

 

If Kirk signed an LTD he would stay. He wouldn't then be traded. The cap penalty alone for trading him on a big contract would be insane. 

 

The team has an official offer already made, though the money is lower since it's the first true offer. At this point they negotitate numbers. HOWEVER, there's likely a hold until after the draft because although the team won't trade him, you never know. Somebody could get desparate and offer a huge trade deal. 

 

These types of deal where tag is involved typically don't resolve until summer. 

 

That last line is really important.  There is no difference whatsoever between this and a holdout over a demand for a new contract.  Hell, rookies holding out used to be SOP.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000363626/article/the-holdout-handbook-exploring-key-issues-for-players-teams

 

Quote

As much as all of us make of the chatter, no player is really making a statement by sitting out in April and May and June. Likewise, no club is really drawing a line in the sand by refraining from negotiating while their disgruntled employee works out elsewhere, or by saying how they won't stand for it.

 

And that's for players that are typically whining.  This will, or won't, be resolved by July.  The only possibility for a resolution now is cutting, trading, or signing.  Him NOT signing now is not an indication that he WON'T be signed.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

To play off of the last two posts by @elkabong82 & @NewCliche21 :

 

What does KC gain from signing a LTD before Free Agency? Nothing

 

What does KC gain from signing a LTD before the Draft? Nothing

 

What does KC gain signing a LTD before 11:59 on July 14, 2017? Nothing

 

The Skins would gain different things from at least the first two deadlines...which means KC had/has more leverage.  After the draft (and closer to July 15) KC will have the least amount of leverage he will have until next off season. He'll still have more leverage than the team though. The team may float a better offer to KC sometime in May/June...but I expect the true offers to start around July 10-13th.  

[elkabong82]

8 minutes ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

The Skins would gain different things from at least the first two deadlines...which means KC had/has more leverage.  After the draft (and closer to July 15) KC will have the least amount of leverage he will have until next off season. He'll still have more leverage than the team though. The team may float a better offer to KC sometime in May/June...but I expect the true offers to start around July 10-13th.  

 

KC has had all the leverage since he put up a 2nd good season. If he hits the market he will be in very high demand now and command a massive contract making him the highest paid QB (until other QBs get their new deals). 

 

However, Kirk does have some incentive to get a LTD done with the Skins. So the team does have some leverage, but KC has and will keep the upper hand. The team's leverage comes from the fact that Kirk thrives in this system, is surrounded by a lot of talent on offense for the pass game, and the DC media market is a massive one for him to use as a platform for spreading the word on IJM and other such things e's involved with, which he's stated before is a very improtant goal for him. Most of the teams that would be interested in him are rebuild projects. Texans are only ones I can think of that could want him and they'd be set up to make a run. Skins also have leverage in that they can tag him another year, so the fear of him hitting the market is still a ways off. 

 

But the Skins need Kirk right now to be successful. They don't have a defense or run game that can carry the burden while a new QB deveops nor can they rely on just a game manager vet. Kirk has the majority of the leverage. The only real effect it has though is that the final contract will be closer to what Kirk wants than what the team wants. But, it should be noted Kirk has said he's not looking to bleed the team dry, so his LTD will fall in line with market value, which is around the tag number. Guaranteed money IMO is where the team will have to concede and up the ante to land Kirk long term.

 

My guess is LTD gets done mid-July, averaging $24/yr with the first few years being sub 24, over 5 years, $50 mil guaranteed at signing which is a bit higher, but it's so the total guaranteed money can be lower, around $75-78 mil. Essentially it's just a bit less than the Luck contract given Luck has gotten his team further, but the cap has gone up. 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

6 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

 

KC has had all the leverage since he put up a 2nd good season. If he hits the market he will be in very high demand now and command a massive contract making him the highest paid QB (until other QBs get their new deals). 

 

However, Kirk does have some incentive to get a LTD done with the Skins. So the team does have some leverage, but KC has and will keep the upper hand. The team's leverage comes from the fact that Kirk thrives in this system, is surrounded by a lot of talent on offense for the pass game, and the DC media market is a massive one for him to use as a platform for spreading the word on IJM and other such things e's involved with, which he's stated before is a very improtant goal for him. Most of the teams that would be interested in him are rebuild projects. Texans are only ones I can think of that could want him and they'd be set up to make a run. Skins also have leverage in that they can tag him another year, so the fear of him hitting the market is still a ways off. 

 

But the Skins need Kirk right now to be successful. They don't have a defense or run game that can carry the burden while a new QB deveops nor can they rely on just a game manager vet. Kirk has the majority of the leverage. The only real effect it has though is that the final contract will be closer to what Kirk wants than what the team wants. But, it should be noted Kirk has said he's not looking to bleed the team dry, so his LTD will fall in line with market value, which is around the tag number. Guaranteed money IMO is where the team will have to concede and up the ante to land Kirk long term.

 

My guess is LTD gets done mid-July, averaging $24/yr with the first few years being sub 24, over 5 years, $50 mil guaranteed at signing which is a bit higher, but it's so the total guaranteed money can be lower, around $75-78 mil. Essentially it's just a bit less than the Luck contract given Luck has gotten his team further, but the cap has gone up. 

 

I feel like this is just the long version of what I said...so I agree

[Mr. Sinister]

58 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

That last line is really important.  There is no difference whatsoever between this and a holdout over a demand for a new contract.  Hell, rookies holding out used to be SOP.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000363626/article/the-holdout-handbook-exploring-key-issues-for-players-teams

 

 

 

Agreed, which makes it even more annoying that the media has decided to turn this into good guy/bad guy

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Agreed, which makes it even more annoying that the media has decided to turn this into good guy/bad guy

 

Yeah, I don't remember the media killing the Broncos or Von Miller last year when he was threatening to hold out the entire season.  It was more like...'the Broncos have to be smart and not over pay' and 'Miller is so good he deserves all the money he can get'.

[Morneblade]

9 minutes ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

Yeah, I don't remember the media killing the Broncos or Von Miller last year when he was threatening to hold out the entire season.  It was more like...'the Broncos have to be smart and not over pay' and 'Miller is so good he deserves all the money he can get'.

 

Or Eric Barry this year saying he would not play on the tag.

 

 

[terryb101]

On 1/2/2017 at 4:35 AM, Ron78 said:

I know everyone is in love with Kirk Cousins, and he put up a lot of yards the last couple seasons, but the truth is that he puts up a lot of garbage yards.  He still makes a lot of mental errors and isn't clutch in the red zone.  He is not worth the big contract he wants, and giving him another season to prove his mediocrity via the franchise tag is not worth it.  We need to put that money towards filling other holes (particularly in the secondary) and roll the dice with Colt McCoy.  Hell, we could have an open competition between Colt McCoy and Nate Sudfeld.  But Kirk, despite his many weapons on offense, is not getting it done. 

almost everyone can throw for well over 3,000 yards in the nfl now, with all the handcuffing of the defenses and the "holding" that is now allowed by the offensive linemen, and with all that said cousins is only 3 games over .500  the past 2 seasons.. 100 million dollars? no way

[Morneblade]

3 minutes ago, terryb101 said:

almost everyone can throw for well over 3,000 yards in the nfl now, with all the handcuffing of the defenses and the "holding" that is now allowed by the offensive linemen, and with all that said cousins is only 3 games over .500  the past 2 seasons.. 100 million dollars? no way

 

This is one of the most intellectually pathetic and lazy arguments I've seen here, and that is saying something. Could you at least TRY next time?